AMAZALERT

Early warning System for critical transitions in Amazonia : Framework

Coupled Atmosphere-Land surface Analyse and new ESM resultsDGVMstesturgent issuesriversCoupled LUCPeopleScenario analysisPolicy analysisLand-use change model

Blue-print Early-Warning SystemCritical Ecosystem Services

Develop a proposal (Blue-print) for an early warning system for imminent tipping points

Early Warning SystemWhat to warn about?Not only critical transitions, but also gradual change?Which changes are the biggest concerns of stakeholders?Degradation of ecosystem services in what time scales (years decades) ? How do we translate large-scale change into local impact?Are there likely policy options in response?

Amazonia maintains its own regional water cycle

Amazonia stores CO2 in biomass

On area basis not extremely high, but there is so much of it: total 86 Pg CGlobally in atmosphere: 760 Pg

High(est?) Biodiversity

People!What is needed to preserve ecosystem services?Does most of it come down to preserving forests?How to define a threshold/changeMagnitude of impactTime and spatial scaleThreshold in impact or in forcing?

How to define thresholds

Good et al, 2012Dry seasonlengthTemperatureForestsustainableForestunsustainableWhat kind of thresholds can we warn for?Regional forcingsthreshold+Emissions set to zero hereCommitted climate change after emissions are stopped(lagged ocean heat uptake)IMPACT threshold: Critical change occursREGIONAL threshold: Critical change is unavoidableMITIGATION threshold: Existing policies are not sufficient any more to avoid critical change

Good et al, in prepIndicatorsWhat would change look like models, proxy observationsHow would the ecosystem approach the changeVariability indicators?Examples...Mitigation threshold: model forecasts of future T , seasonality, land-useRegional threshold: monitoring and modelT, Precip, land-useImpact threshold: monitoringNPP, soil carbon, flammability, hydrology

Forecast climate-induced changes to the Amazon till 2100

40% deforestationand/or 3 degrees warmingleads to savannisation (Nobre et al., various)

Precipitation changeNo fire and no LU+ fire and LU

RCP4.5 - 2050Dry season length

RCP4.5 - 2050No fire and no LU+ fire and LUBiomass

RCP4.5 - 2050No fire and no LU+ fire and LUSampaio et al, in prep

Tropical forestSavanna state triggered by climate change or deforestationStability of savanna enhanced by increased droughts and firesTipping points in AmazoniaCardoso and Borma, 2010Environmental variationStabilityAnalysing tipping points with simple models

Example: Simple Amazon with variable climate circulation(Meesters, in prep)Would early warning signs be detectable??Increased variance swamped in overall variance increaseTime scale of fluctuation short relative to time scale of change itselfNo fluctuation signal at allCritical indicatorsThe basis of such a system is long-term monitoring of critical indicators These indicators should be quantities that are relatively accessible, and easy to monitor at high temporal and/or spatial resolution.should represent the variability of the Amazon ecosystem services and other important tipping phenomena=> their behaviour near critical transitions should reliably point to imminent change in the state of that particular ecosystem service.

Monitoring systemWHICH properties of the Amazon would be important to monitor as indicators?Existing monitoringInvest in key new onesHOW would we detect imminent change from these?Advanced statistical techniques looking at variability and slowing downAnalyse trends as well and compare with models to extrapolateAnalyse model output as guidance

EWS frameworkIn situ monitoring stationsModeling System

Remote sensing monitoring systemEARLY WARNING SYSTEM Monitoring system Modeling System Analysis Tools Communications23Which institution can do this?Aim: Manage critical monitoring systemsRe-analyse and re-run coupled forecasts issue regular state of the Amazon reports

CEMADEN Brazil centre for monitoring and forecasting of natural disastersFederal instituteRuns several intensive monitoring systemsNow short-term forecastingCould add long-range forecasting branch

An independent NGO?More difficult to obtain information and run monitoringCould more easily advise against government policy

Products for this week?Outline / draft of proposal for an EWS for AmazoniaOutline for high-level paper on EWS: the science behind it

An explicit list of monitoring elementsAn explicit list of model tools neededEarly warning system draft outline Components:Critical ecosystem services (WP1)Requirements from policy/stakeholders (WP4)

Review risk of collapse (WP3)Framework for threshold typology (theory) Review of likely thresholds/ behaviour at threshold crossing (so far, from literature)

Indicators (requirements and listing WP2,3)Monitoring options/recommendations (WP5)Analysis tools and forecast models (WP5, WP3)

Institutional embedding (WP5)Communication means (WP5, WP4, WP6)

Implementation EWSCritical ServicesPolicy needLikelihood collapseTypes of thresholdsReview thresholdsIndicatorsMonitoringAnalysis/forecastInstitutionalCommunicationMeasures (adapt, mitigate)FormatPolicy reportSubmittable proposal for tenderPaper on concept of EWSReview of most important thresholds depending on time and spatial scaleJoint with WP3/WP2, explore the model results (BESM, IPSL, CMIP3, DGVMs?) update Nobre&Borma (3 degrees-40%), Good et al (reg thresholds)...Review socio-economic thresholds / indicators (need WP4 to think about this!)Review on (new) observational and analysis methods for EW?Only if we can do a TEST. So far not enough data/no tipping points?Lack of power to detect tipping points (Antoon Meesters)..?

List of possible variables to monitorSea Surface Temperature (SST) - indicator of global-scale changePrecipitation (patterns, quantity, dry season length) primary driver as well as an ecosystem service that can be affectedClimate modes (ENSO, Atlantic Oscillations, etc) - often correlated indicators of high-impact changes or episodes in AmazoniaRiver flow and discharge Evapotranspiration - prime driver of recyclingLIST SHOULD BE OPEN and EXPANDABLE, of course - an EWS that should work in a long timeframe , many innovative monitoring methods will be developed.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) - indicator of global-scale change

Precipitation (patterns, quantity, dry season length) primary driver as well as an ecosystem service that can be affected

Climate modes (ENSO, Atlantic Oscillations, etc) - often correlated indicators of high-impact changes or episodes in Amazonia

River flow and discharge

Evapotranspiration prime driver of recycling, but hard to monitor at large scale. Satellite data-based products (through, e.g. GEWEX) ?30List of possible variables to monitoroverall vegetation productivity changes [CO2] over the tropical belt + anthropogenic emissionsMonitor a number of permanent plots. Among others, look at PHENOLOGY.Biomass - remote sensing (eg S-band Radar) and well-referenced growth bands in forest plots across the basinWater use efficiency from tree-ring & gas exchange monitoringRemote sensing indices (NDVI , EVI) 31List of possible variables to monitorFires (remote sensing and in-situ observations) not simply occurrence or area, but also fire effects (e.g. type of vegetation affected and recovery of previously burned areasEconomic indicators, such as the GDP of the region, transport, trade and migration patternsExposure and Vulnerability (?) 32Screaming Piha (Lipaugus vociferans)Alexander Leesxeno-cantoCotingidae26640.0eng - XC95589 Alexander Lees // Floresta Nacional do Tapajs, Bacia 165, Santarem, Para (-2.7539, -54.997), Brazil // ?m // 08:40h, 2010-12-13 // song // primary forest (once burnt) // also: McConnell's FlycatcherTCOP2010 Alexander LeesWCOP1http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/WOAFhttp://xeno-canto.org/95589