e toll presentation wayne duvenage truckx
TRANSCRIPT
The ‘endless’ E-‐Toll Saga
and other interes4ng facts
Wayne Duvenage OUTA -‐ Chairperson
Breaking the myths about OUTA & E-‐Tolls
Dispel SANRAL’s Claims of six court wins 18 months of A"ri%on Through Lawfare
Why did OUTA launch?
E-‐Toll Discussions…
Staying the course and why we had to
What we discovered…
E-‐Toll Revenue (& “Forecasts”)
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!350.0!!
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RANDS
x M
illions
Launched 3 Dec 2013
COURT PROCESS IN 2012 & 2013 SANRAL SAID: 1. COMPLIANCE will be 93%. 2. Average Revenue of R260 mil / month achievable
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E-‐Toll Revenue (& “Forecasts”)
Projec4on for success (OUTA)
Dec$13 Jan$14 Feb$14 Mar$14 Apr$14 May$14 Jun$14 Jul$14 Aug$14 Sep$14 Oct$14 Nov$14 Dec$14 Jan$15 Feb$15 Mar$15 Apr$15 May$15 Jun$15 Jul$15 Aug$15 Sep$15 Oct$15 Nov$15 Dec$15 Jan$16 Feb$16 Mar$16 Apr$16 May$16
Actual Revenue (SANRAL) Forecasts Revenue (SANRAL)
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1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23! 24! 25! 26! 27! 28! 29! 30!
E-‐Toll Revenue (& “Forecasts”)
Projec4on for success (OUTA)
Dec$13 Jan$14 Feb$14 Mar$14 Apr$14 May$14 Jun$14 Jul$14 Aug$14 Sep$14 Oct$14 Nov$14 Dec$14 Jan$15 Feb$15 Mar$15 Apr$15 May$15 Jun$15 Jul$15 Aug$15 Sep$15 Oct$15 Nov$15 Dec$15 Jan$16 Feb$16 Mar$16 Apr$16 May$16
Actual Revenue (SANRAL) Forecasts Revenue (SANRAL)
SANRAL’s Discount Dispensa4on… Moun4ng Public Anxiety
OUTA Refuses to go away…
E-‐Toll Defense Umbrella
New internal legal capacity Defend every OUTA member
OUTA Revises strategy – Sep 2015…
OUTA REVISES STRATEGY FOR LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS
Threats of Vehicle Lis4ngs (?) & Summonses
Sanral begins to issue 6,000 summonses
Jan 2016 – Dispensa4on failing fast
May 2016: New Dispensa4on <R150m of R5,9b
OUTA defends all its summonsed members
Current li4ga4on developments
In Feb 2016: OUTA expands mandate
OPPOSITION TO URBAN TOLLING ALLIANCE
ORGANISATION UNDOING TAX ABUSE
WHY?
TO
Many ques4ons raised around tax policy Carbon Tax, Sugar Taxes Tyre Recycling Taxes
Many ques4ons around maladministra4on & / Corrup4on SAA, Eskom, Prasa, SABC
SOE accoun4ng prac4ces enables more borrowing… Increased cost of infrastructure in SA…
2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$Debt$Ra2o's$$ 1.234856856$1.178158303$1.185716064$1.219998469$0.516794454$1.026106071$0.232479401$0.246719604$0.260951841$0.250963373$0.252289173$0.288061201$Total$Assets$ 7780782000$9076108000$8999830000$9826332000$12444495000$30603724000$1.87174E+11$2.2049E+11$2.69265E+11$2.76296E+11$3.10992E+11$3.25469E+11$Total$Liabili2es$9608152000$10693092000$10671243000$11988110000$14328202000$31402667000$43514132000$54399317000$70265150000$69340215000$78459898000$93754925000$
R0$
R50,000,000,000$
R100,000,000,000$
R150,000,000,000$
R200,000,000,000$
R250,000,000,000$
R300,000,000,000$
R350,000,000,000$
$SANRAL:$Total$Liabili2es$To$Total$Assets$
Rand
s x Billion
SANRAL’s: Total Assets to Liabili4es
-‐
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016
Eskom Total Assets to Total Liabilites
Total assets Total liabili4es
RANDS
x Billions
-‐
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016
Eskom Total Assets to Total Liabilites
Total assets Total liabili4es
RANDS
x Billions Total ProducIon (GwH)
Coal Burn (Mt) 122
119
125
231 237
215 218 218
225
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sales (GwH)
39
137 Sales (R’bn)
50
75
100
125
150
25
The QuesIon of Road ConstrucIon Costs in SA
Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project -‐ 185 km = R17,9 bn -‐ Just under R100m / KM -‐ An addi4onal lane each direc4on + 3 / 4 lanes resurfaced
OUTA Research in Feb 2016 – shows serious concerns
Why would this be a concern? -‐ E-‐Tolls more irra4onal
GFIP
Addis-‐Ababa – Adama (85km)
AWer Before
Before AWer
GFIP
Nairobi-‐Thika SuperHighway (50km)
AWer Before
Before
AWer
GFIP
Grand Parkway to SH6 – Texas (11km)
AWer Before
AWer Before
The Cost of Road Construc4on in SA Cost comparison for GFIP and Other
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
GFIP Addis Ababa-‐Adama Expressway
Nairobi-‐Thika Expressway
Grand Parkway to SH6 Texas
N3 Future Upgrades
Cost / m²
GFIP Addis Ababa-‐Adama Expressway Nairobi-‐Thika Expressway
Grand Parkway to SH6 Texas N3 Future Upgrades
N3 Upgrade – Durban to Cedara / Pmb (84km)
PMB
DURBAN
N3 Upgrade – Durban to Cedara / Pmb (84km)
The Cost of Road Construc4on in SA Cost comparison for GFIP and Other
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
GFIP Addis Ababa-‐Adama Expressway
Nairobi-‐Thika Expressway
Grand Parkway to SH6 Texas
N3 Future Upgrades
Cost / m²
GFIP Addis Ababa-‐Adama Expressway Nairobi-‐Thika Expressway
Grand Parkway to SH6 Texas N3 Future Upgrades
?
Harrismith will loose Est. R1bn / annum pa (1,5m cars)
98 Km New 4 Lane Freeway to save 14km ???
Road will cost est R10bn
Toll costs will negate the 14km Saving
Alterna4ve shortening and safer alignments best op4on
Swinburne & Van Reenen Pass nodes die
THANK
YOU