출생 및 인구 규모 감소와

미래 사회정책

연구보고서 2019-17-01

이소영

장인수 ․이삼식 ․이철희 ․신손문 ․신성호 ․박현경 ․손인숙 ․손호성

오수영 ․최용성

연구보고서 2019-17-01

출생 및 인구 규모 감소와 미래 사회정책

발 행 일

저 자

발 행 인

발 행 처

주 소

전 화

홈페이지

등 록

인 쇄 처

2019년 12월

이 소 영

조 흥 식

한국보건사회연구원

[30147]세종특별자치시 시청대로 370

세종국책연구단지 사회정책동(1~5층)

대표전화: 044)287-8000

http://www.kihasa.re.kr

1994년 7월 1일(제8-142호)

㈜에이치에이앤컴퍼니

ⓒ 한국보건사회연구원 2019

ISBN 978-89-6827-636-1 93330

【책임연구자】

이소영 한국보건사회연구원 연구위원

【주요 저서】

2018년 전국 출산력 및 가족보건·복지 실태조사

한국보건사회연구원, 2018(공저)

산후 정신건강 증진을 위한 지원 방안 연구

한국보건사회연구원, 2017(공저)

【공동연구진】

장인수 한국보건사회연구원 부연구위원

이삼식 한양대학교 정책학과 교수

이철희 서울대학교 경제학부 교수

신손문 인제대학교 소아청소년과 교수

신성호 서울대학교 국제학부 교수

박현경 한양대학교 의과대학 교수

손인숙 건국대학교 의과대학 교수

손호성 중앙대학교 공공인재학부 교수

오수영 성균관대학교 의과대학 교수

최용성 경희대학교 의과대학 교수

한국 사회는 인구대체 수준인 합계출산율 2.1명 이하의 저출산 현상을

지난 35년여 동안 경험하고 있으며, 2001년부터 지금까지 합계출산율이

1.3명 미만인 초저출산 현상이 지속되고 있다. 과거 어느 시대에도 세계

어느 나라에서도 찾아볼 수 없는 급격한 인구의 변화를 겪고 있다고 볼

수 있다. 통계청의 인구추계 결과에 따르면 총인구는 2017년 5136만 명

에서 2067년 3929만 명으로 감소하고 유소년 인구는 2017년 672만명

에서 2030년 500만 명, 2067년 318만 명으로 감소하며, 학령인구는

2017년 846만 명에서 10년간 190만 명 감소하여 2067년에 364만 명

수준으로 전망되고 있다. 이처럼 인구의 변화는 어느 정도 전망이 가능하

나, 그에 따른 우리 사회 여러 곳의 변화에 대한 전망은 미흡하다. 최근

정부는 제3차 저출산·고령사회 기본계획(2016~2020)의 목표인 출산율

(2020년까지 1.5명)을 버리고 「저출산·고령사회 정책 로드맵」을 통하여

‘모든 세대의 삶의 질 제고’와 ‘계층·성·세대 간 통합·연대 등 포용 국가

로의 패러다임 전환’을 구체화하였다.

이러한 배경 속에서 미래 사회의 변화에 따른 정책이 나아가야 할 방향

을 고민하는 것은 매우 중요하다고 하겠다. 사회 변화에 대한 예측이 없

이는 변화하는 사회에 적응하고 발생될 문제에 대응하는 것이 어렵기 때

문이다. 따라서 사회 발전의 지속가능성과 개인의 삶의 질을 향상시키기

위해 인구 변화가 가져 올 파급효과를 전망하고 이에 대한 대책을 강구하

는 일은 매우 필요하다. 이러한 맥락에서 본 연구는 출생 및 인구 규모 감

소에 따른 미래 사회정책의 방향을 제시하고 있다. 이와 같은 연구의 결

과는 학술적으로 인구 변화를 전망하고 이에 따른 사회정책을 설계하는

발간사

데 기여할 것이며, 정책적으로 인구 변화에 대응하고 적응하기 위한 실효

성 높은 대책을 강구하는 데 중요한 근거로 기여할 것이다.

본 보고서는 이소영 연구위원의 책임하에 원내에서는 장인수 부연구위

원이 참여하였고, 각 분야의 전문가로서 한양대학교 이삼식 교수, 서울대

학교 이철희 교수, 서울대학교 신성호 교수, 중앙대학교 손호성 교수, 인

제대학교 소아청소년과 신손문 교수, 건국대학교 의과대학 손인숙 교수,

성균관대학교 의과대학 오수영 교수, 한양대학교 의과대학 박현경 교수,

경희대학교 의과대학 최용성 교수가 참여하였다. 그리고 보고회를 통해

자문에 응해 주신 동국대학교 유삼현 교수와 본원의 정경희 선임연구위

원에게 감사드린다. 아울러 소셜 데이터 분석과 관련하여 유익한 자문을

해 준 ㈜아크릴의 안형석 팀장에게도 감사의 마음을 전한다. 마지막으로

본 연구 결과는 우리 연구원의 공식적 견해가 아니라 연구자의 개별 입장

을 대변함을 밝혀 둔다.

2019년 12월

한국보건사회연구원 원장

조 흥 식

Abstract ················································································································1

요 약 ······················································································································3

제1장 서 론 ·························································································9

제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 ·············································································11

제2절 연구의 내용 및 방법 ·············································································19

제2장 선행연구 ··················································································23

제1절 미래연구 ································································································25

제2절 미래연구 방법론 ····················································································29

제3절 출생아 감소와 미래 사회정책 ·······························································32

제3장 인구 전망(인구 추계) ······························································43

제1절 배경 ·······································································································45

제2절 인구 추계 시나리오 ···············································································47

제3절 인구 구조 변화와 함의 ··········································································51

제4장 출생 및 인구 규모 감소에 대한 국민 인식 ····························65

제1절 소셜 데이터 분석 ··················································································67

제2절 국민인식조사 ·······················································································101

제5장 출생 및 인구 규모 감소에 대한 전문가 의견 ······················115

제1절 델파이조사 방법 ··················································································117

목 차

제2절 델파이조사 결과 ··················································································119

제6장 출생아 감소와 교육 정책 ······················································139

제1절 배경 ·····································································································141

제2절 미래 교육 정책 ····················································································150

제7장 출생아 감소와 노동 정책 ······················································217

제1절 배경 ·····································································································219

제2절 미래 노동 정책 ····················································································222

제8장 출생아 감소와 국방 정책 ······················································279

제1절 배경 ·····································································································281

제2절 미래 국방 정책 ····················································································300

제9장 출생아 감소와 아동 건강 정책 ·············································341

제1절 배경 ·····································································································343

제2절 미래 아동 건강 정책 ···········································································350

제10장 출생아 감소와 여성 건강 정책 ···········································423

제1절 배경 ·····································································································425

제2절 미래 여성 건강 정책 ···········································································429

제11장 결론 ····················································································497

제1절 결과 요약 ····························································································499

제2절 결론 ·····································································································513

참고문헌 ···························································································517

부 록 ································································································545

부록 1. 인구 추계 결과 ·················································································545

부록 2. 5개 부문 3종 및 34종 감성 분석 결과 ··········································551

부록 3. 출생 및 인구 감소에 따른 사회 주요 부문별 대응 정책에 대한

국민인식조사 설문지 ········································································557

부록 4. 각 산업별 20-24세 취업 인력 규모 ···············································562

Korea Institute for Health & Social Affairs

표 목차

인구 감소 전망 ···································································································13

미래 예측 주요 방법론 ·······················································································29

〈표 3-1〉 향후 기대수명 변화에 대한 가정(2017~2067년) ··············································50

〈표 3-2〉 인구 추계 시나리오 ····························································································51

〈표 3-3〉 시나리오별 총인구 전망(2017~2065년) ····························································53

〈표 3-4〉 시나리오별 유소년 인구(0~14세) 전망(2017~2065년) ·····································55

〈표 3-5〉 시나리오별 생산연령인구(15~64세) 전망(2017~2065년) ·································56

〈표 3-6〉 시나리오별 노인인구(65세 이상) 전망, 2017~2065 ·········································58

〈표 3-7〉 시나리오별 고령화 수준 전망, 2017~2065 ······················································60

〈표 3-8〉 인구 구조(고령화 수준)에 대한 인구 변동 요인의

영향력 전망(2017~2065년) ···············································································61

3종 및 34종 세부 감성의 구분 ·········································································72

인구 감소가 포함된 기사의 단어 빈도 분석 결과 ·············································83

인구 감소 및 사회정책 부문 간 단어 빈도 비교 ···············································94

〈표 4-4〉 국민인식조사 응답자(1000명) 특성 ·································································102

국민인식조사: 출생아 감소에 대한 견해 분포 ·················································104

국민인식조사 결과: 출생아 및 인구 감소 전망(지속 여부) ·····························104

국민인식조사 결과: 출생아 및 인구 감소 전망 ···············································105

국민인식조사: 출생아 감소의 국가 의제에 대한 견해 ·····································106

국민인식조사: 출생아 감소에 대한 사회 및 국민의 대응 방식 ·······················107

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하는 단기 추진 정책에 대한

견해(중복 응답) ······························································································108

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하는 중장기 추진 정책에 대한

견해(중복 응답) ······························································································109

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 가장 우선적으로

추진되어야 할 분야에 대한 견해 ···································································110

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 교육 분야에서 가장

중요하게 추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(중복 응답) ··································111

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 노동 분야에서 가장

중요하게 추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ··········································112

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 국방 분야에서 가장

중요하게 추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ··········································113

국민인식조사: 출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 보건의료 분야에서

가장 중요하게 추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ·································114

출생아 감소에 대한 견해 분포 ·········································································121

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대한 전망(지속 여부) ·················································121

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대한 전망 ···································································122

출생아 감소의 국가 의제에 대한 견해 ·····························································125

출생아 감소에 대한 사회 및 국민의 대응 방식 ···············································128

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하는 단기 추진 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ·············129

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하는 중장기 추진 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ·········131

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 교육 분야에서 가장 중요하게

추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ···························································133

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 노동 분야에서 가장 중요하게

추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ···························································134

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 국방 분야에서 가장 중요하게

추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ·························································136

출생아 및 인구 감소에 대응하기 위해 보건의료 분야에서 가장 중요하게

추진되어야 할 정책에 대한 견해(택 2) ·························································137

Perry Preschool Program의 효과 ································································151

사업 유형별 영유아 양육 지원 정책의 예·결산 추이 ······································156

사업별 영유아 양육 지원 정책의 예·결산 추이 ···············································157

Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

가정양육수당 지원 금액 ···················································································161

청소년 범죄 통계 ·····························································································177

2015 개정 교육과정 적용 일정 ·······································································178

2015 개정 교육과정 중 초등학교 수학 교과 개정 내용 ·································180

OECD 국가의 국공립 초등학교 평균 학급당 학생 수(2016년 기준) ·············181

연도별·학교급별 취학률 ····················································································190

중등교육의 GDP 대비 공교육비 비율(2015년) ·············································192

중등교육의 평균 학급당 학생 수(2016년) ·····················································193

고등학교 유형별 학교 수 ···············································································198

고등학교 유형별 학생 수 ···············································································198

고등학교 유형별 진학 비율 ············································································199

지역 규모별·고등학교 유형별 학업 중단율(2016년) ·····································200

독일과 미국의 연구대학 비교 ········································································206

대학 평가별 연구 관련 지표의 비율 ······························································207

국가별 25~64세 고등교육 이수 인구 비율 ···················································208

The Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2019 ·······212

〈표 7-1〉 산업별 청년(20~29세 및 20~34세) 고용 집중도(청년 취업자 중 산업 j에

고용된 취업자 비율) / 산업 j 취업자가 전체 취업자에서 차지하는 비율) ·····248

〈표 7-2〉 2013년 20~24세 및 25~29세 취업자의 5년 후 산업잔존확률 ·····················250

〈표 7-3〉 35세 미만 취업자 비율(2018~2038) ······························································260

남북한 군사력 비교 ··························································································293

2018 한국군의 병종별 병력 구조(2012년 비교) ············································301

2018 주변국의 병력 현황(2012년 비교) ························································302

2012년 주변국의 병력 현황 ············································································303

국방개혁 요약(병력 분야) ·················································································309

제1국민역 중 현역의 복무 유형별 분류 ··························································313

국방개혁 기본계획(2014~2030)에 따른 병력 감축 계획 ································314

인구 추계 시나리오(신시나리오)상 19세 남성 인구 추계와 국방개혁

기본계획에 따른 소요 인원 비교 ·····································································317

실제 입영 비율 ·································································································319

인구 시나리오별 인원 과부족 예상 ································································322

주요국 국내총생산(GDP) 대비 국방비 비율 ··················································325

2018년도 일반회계 국방예산 규모 및 배분 현황 ·········································326

2019년 국방예산의 군인 인건비 내역 ··························································327

2018~2023 국방중기계획에 따른 국방비 소요 ············································328

〈표 9-1〉 출생아 수 및 조출생률 추이 ············································································343

〈표 9-2〉 출산 순위별 출생아 수 및 구성비 ···································································344

〈표 9-3〉 평균 초혼 연령의 변화 ·····················································································345

〈표 9-4〉 모의 평균 출산 연령의 변화 ············································································345

〈표 9-5〉 혼인 건수 및 조혼인율(2008~2018년) ···························································345

〈표 9-6〉 인구 추계에 의한 유소년 인구 ········································································349

〈표 9-7〉 인구 추계에 의한 영아 인구 ············································································349

〈표 9-8〉 다태아 출생 ······································································································351

〈표 9-9〉 다태아 모의 평균 연령 ·····················································································352

〈표 9-10〉 임신 기간별 출생아 수 및 구성비 ·································································352

〈표 9-11〉 임신 기간별 모의 평균 연령 ··········································································353

〈표 9-12〉 출생아의 평균 체중 ························································································353

〈표 9-13〉 출생아의 체중별 구성비 ·················································································354

〈표 9-14〉 미숙아 출생 추계 ···························································································355

〈표 9-15〉 저체중아 출생 추계 ························································································355

〈표 9-16〉 신생아집중치료센터 지원 사업 현황 ······························································357

2016년 현재 전국 출생아 및 미숙아, 신생아 중환자실 병상 ······················357

〈표 9-18〉 신생아 분과 전문의 수의 연도별 변화 ··························································360

〈표 9-19〉 소아·청소년과 전문의 수의 연도별 변화 ·······················································360

신생아 의사당 신생아 출생아 수 비율 ··························································361

Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

신생아 분과 전문의 1인당 담당 병상 수 분포 ··············································362

기관별 신생아 중환자실 담당 분과 전문의 수의 분포 ··································362

신생아 중환자실 전문의 1인당 담당 병상 수에 따른 신생아 사망률 ···········363

출산 관련 지표의 국가별 비교 ·······································································368

고위험 산모·신생아 통합치료센터 인력 기준 ·················································368

〈표 9-26〉 의료기관 종별 소아재활치료기관 현황 ···························································373

〈표 9-27〉 지역별 종별 소아재활치료기관 분포 현황 ·····················································374

산후조리원 내 발생한 주요 감염질환 ····························································383

모유수유 기간에 따른 유익한 효과 ································································384

〈표 9-30〉 유엔 회원국의 국제규약 법제화 현황 ····························································386

해외의 공공장소 모유수유와 관련한 법률과 인식 ··········································394

〈표 9-32〉 현행 영유아 건강검진 주기 및 항목 ······························································396

〈표 9-33〉 현재 학생 건강검사의 학년별 검사 항목 ·······················································398

〈표 9-34〉 현재 학생 건강조사의 세부 영역별 지표 ·······················································399

〈표 9-35〉 학생 건강조사의 생활습관 지표 결과 ····························································399

〈표 9-36〉 학생 건강조사의 신체 발달 상황 ···································································400

〈표 9-37〉 초등학생의 소아천식 유병률 ··········································································404

아동청소년 비만율 ··························································································404

〈표 9-39〉 정신 장애 1년 유병률 ····················································································405

〈표 9-40〉 비의도적 사고 연령별 사망원인 순위, 2014-2016년(3개년 합산) ··············413

학대 행위자와 피해 아동과의 관계 ································································419

다문화가족의 자녀 양육 어려움 ·····································································420

모(母)의 출산 연령 및 고령 산모의 구성비(2008~2018년) ·························425

〈표 10-2〉 다태아 모의 평균 연령 ··················································································426

〈표 10-3〉 임신 기간별 모의 평균 연령 ··········································································426

〈표 10-4〉 출산율 가정에 의한 인구 추계 시나리오 ·······················································428

〈표 10-5〉 인구 추계에 의한 가임 여성 인구 추계 ························································428

고위험 임신 분류 ···························································································430

모(母)의 출산 연령 및 고령 산모의 구성비 추정(2018~2028년) ·················431

모의 연령 증가에 따른 산과적 합병증의 증가 ··············································432

연도별, 임신 기간별 조산 및 만삭아 수 추정(2018~2028년) ·····················433

가임 여성에서 연령별 비만(체질량지수>25kg/㎡)의 유병률 ························434

가임 여성에서 연령별 비만(체질량지수>25kg/㎡)의 유병률 추정

(2018~2028년) ···························································································435

비만이 임신 및 출산, 신생아 합병증에 미치는 영향 ··································435

다태아 출생아 수 및 구성비 추이(2007~2017년) ······································436

다태아 출생아 수 및 구성비 추이, 추정(2018~2028년) ····························437

연도 및 산모 연령별 자궁 내 태아 발육 지연 ············································438

연도 및 산모 연령별 자궁 내 태아 발육 지연, 추정(2019~2028년)* ·······439

임신 중 생긴 당뇨병 ····················································································440

임신 중 생긴 당뇨병, 추정(2019~2028년)* ···············································441

임신 전 당뇨병의 증가 ················································································441

임신 전 당뇨병의 증가, 추정(2019~2028년)* ············································442

모성 사망자 수 및 모성 사망비(2009~2017년) ·········································443

연령별 모성 사망자 수 및 모성 사망비(2009~2017년) ·····························443

지역별 모성 사망비(2009~2017년) ·····························································444

〈표 10-24〉 2015~2017년 미혼모 현황 ·········································································447

합계출산율 및 20세 미만 모(母)의 출산율(2008~2018년) ························448

청소년 건강행태조사 통계: 성관계 경험률(2007~2018년) ·························449

중학교 입학 전 성관계 경험률(2007~2018년) ···········································450

성관계 시작 연령(2007~2018년) ································································451

성관계 경험자의 피임 실천율 및 임신 경험률(2007~2018년) ···················451

연간 성교육 경험률(2010~2018년) ·····························································452

연도별, 요양기관종별 분만기관 수 ······························································455

산부인과 또는 분만실이 없는 지역 현황(2017년 12월 기준) ····················456

연도별 신규 산부인과 전문의 수 및 성별에 따른 구성비 ···························457

Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

응답자의 지역별 분포 ··················································································458

전국 수련병원 모체태아의학 교수진의 직위별 지역적 분포 및

시도별 필요한 추가 확보 인원 ····································································464

입원료 비교(종합병원 기준) ·········································································475

분만 관련 질병군의 중등도 분류 ·································································478

산모의 연령에 따른 다운증후군 및 모든 이수성 염색체 이상의 위험도 ·····479

연도별 영아 사망 및 선천기형 등으로 인한 영아 사망 ······························481

시나리오별 총인구 ·························································································545

시나리오별 유소년 인구 ················································································547

시나리오별 생산연령인구 ···············································································549

각 산업별 20~34세 취업 인력 규모(전체, 2018~2038년) ·························562

그림 목차

〔그림 1-1〕 출생·사망·자연증가(1985~2067년) ································································12

〔그림 1-2〕 REPRO project model ················································································17

〔그림 1-3〕 연구 체계도 ·····································································································21

〔그림 2-1〕 시나리오 기법의 단계 ·····················································································30

〔그림 2-2〕 총인구 및 인구성장률(1960~2067년) ····························································32

〔그림 3-1〕 코호트요인법을 적용한 인구 추계 방법 ··························································47

〔그림 3-2〕 미래 출산율(합계출산율) 변화에 대한 가정 ····················································49

〔그림 3-6〕 시나리오별 총인구 전망(2017~2065년) ·························································52

〔그림 3-7〕 시나리오별 유소년 인구(0~14세) 전망(2017~2065년) ··································54

〔그림 3-8〕 시나리오별 생산연령인구(15~64세) 전망(2017~2065년) ······························56

〔그림 3-9〕 시나리오별 노인인구(65세 이상) 전망, 2017~2065 ·····································58

〔그림 3-10〕 시나리오별 고령화 수준 전망, 2017~2065 ·················································59

〔그림 4-1〕 코모란 형태소 분석기를 활용한 형태소 분석 예시 결과 ································71

〔그림 4-2〕 소셜 데이터 분석 과정 ···················································································73

〔그림 4-3〕 인구 감소 키워드의 성별 분석 결과 ·······························································75

〔그림 4-4〕 인구 감소 키워드의 연령대 분석 결과 ···························································75

〔그림 4-5〕 인구 감소 키워드의 버즈양, 버즈양 비중 일별 추이 ·····································76

〔그림 4-6〕 인구 감소 키워드의 버즈양, 버즈양 비중 월별 추이 ·····································78

〔그림 4-7〕 긍부정 분석 결과 요약 ···················································································79

〔그림 4-8〕 34종 감성 분석 결과 요약 ·············································································80

〔그림 4-9〕 인구 감소 키워드의 긍부정 비중 데이터 추이 ···············································81

〔그림 4-10〕 인구 감소 키워드의 34종 감성 비중 데이터 추이 ·······································81

〔그림 4-11〕 인구 감소 키워드의 주제 분석 결과 ····························································82

〔그림 4-12〕 텍스트 랭크 분석 결과 ·················································································84

〔그림 4-13〕 성별 분석 사회정책 부문 간 비교 ································································86

Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

〔그림 4-14〕 연령대 분석 사회정책 부문 간 비교 ····························································86

〔그림 4-15〕 노동 키워드 버즈양, 버즈양 비중 일별 시계열 ············································88

〔그림 4-16〕 교육 키워드 버즈양, 버즈양 비중 일별 시계열 ············································89

〔그림 4-17〕 국방 키워드 버즈양, 버즈양 비중 일별 시계열 ············································90

〔그림 4-18〕 아동 건강 키워드 버즈양, 버즈양 비중 일별 시계열 ···································91

〔그림 4-19〕 여성 건강 키워드 버즈양 버즈양 비중 일별 시계열 ····································91

〔그림 4-20〕 주제 분석 사회정책 부문 간 비교 ································································93

〔그림 4-21〕 노동 부문 텍스트 랭크 분석 결과 ································································95

〔그림 4-22〕 교육 부문 텍스트 랭크 분석 결과 ································································96

〔그림 4-23〕 국방 부문 텍스트 랭크 분석 결과 ································································97

〔그림 4-24〕 아동 건강 부문 텍스트 랭크 분석 결과 ·······················································98

〔그림 4-25〕 여성 건강 부문 텍스트 랭크 분석 결과 ·······················································99

〔그림 5-1〕 델파이 분석 과정 ··························································································118

〔그림 6-1〕 인적자본에 대한 투자수익률 ·········································································154

〔그림 6-2〕 OECD 주요국의 GDP 대비 아동 관련 서비스 지출 비율 ··························157

〔그림 6-3〕 양육수당 수급자 수 ·······················································································162

〔그림 6-4〕 어린이집 및 유치원 이용률 ··········································································163

〔그림 6-5〕 유치원과 어린이집 수 ···················································································165

〔그림 6-6〕 시도별 0~5세 아동 보육 공급률 및 어린이집 정원 충족률 ·························166

〔그림 6-7〕 전국 설립 주체별 어린이집 비중 ··································································168

〔그림 6-8〕 사회경제적 상태에 따른 과학 성적 변화 ······················································172

〔그림 6-9〕 소년범죄자 수와 전체 범죄에서의 소년범죄자 구성비 ·································176

〔그림 6-10〕 연도별 초등학교 학급당 학생 수 ································································183

〔그림 6-11〕 고등학교 유형별 진학 비율 ········································································191

〔그림 6-12〕 OECD 국가의 중등학교 평균 학급당 학생 수 ··········································194

〔그림 6-13〕 연도별·학력별 임금지수 ··············································································201

〔그림 6-14〕 학력별 호주 남성 근로자의 생애 소득 ·······················································202

〔그림 6-15〕 OECD 국가의 연령 집단별 고등교육 이수율(2017년 기준) ·····················203

〔그림 6-16〕 고등교육을 이수한 성인 중 낮은 독해 능력과 수리 능력을 지닌 사람의

비율(2012년 혹은 2015년 기준) ·······························································204

〔그림 6-17〕 연도별 대학 진학자 변화 추이 ···································································209

〔그림 6-18〕 연도별 대학 진학 대상(만 18세) 인구 추계(중위 추계기준) ······················210

〔그림 6-19〕 OECD 국가의 고등교육기관의 교원 1인당 학생 수 ·································211

〔그림 7-1〕 각 시나리오별 핵심 생산연령인구(15~64세 인구) 전망 ······························227

〔그림 7-2〕 각 시나리오별 핵심 생산연령인구(15~64세 인구) 전망(2018=100) ··········228

〔그림 7-3〕 각 시나리오별 전체 경제활동인구 전망 ························································229

〔그림 7-4〕 각 시나리오별 전체 경제활동인구 전망(2018=100) ····································230

〔그림 7-5〕 각 시나리오별 남성 경제활동인구 전망 ························································231

〔그림 7-6〕 각 시나리오별 남성 경제활동인구 전망(2018=100) ····································231

〔그림 7-7〕 각 시나리오별 여성 경제활동인구 전망 ························································232

〔그림 7-8〕 각 시나리오별 여성 경제활동인구 전망(2018=100) ····································232

〔그림 7-9〕 통계청 중위추계 실현 시 연령별 경제활동인구 전망 ···································234

〔그림 7-10〕 각 시나리오별 35세 미만 경제활동인구 비율 전망 ···································235

〔그림 7-11〕 각 시나리오별 35세 미만 경제활동인구 전망 ············································235

〔그림 7-12〕 각 시나리오별 35세 미만 경제활동인구 전망(2018=100) ························236

〔그림 7-13〕 2018년 연령별 인구 규모 ··········································································237

〔그림 7-14〕 55세 이상 경제활동인구 비율 전망 ···························································238

〔그림 7-15〕 2018년 산업별 로그평균임금과 35세 미만 취업 인구 집중도

(전체 취업자 비중 대비 35세 미만 취업자 비중) ·····································254

〔그림 7-16〕 2018년 산업별 35~54세 취업자 로그평균임금과 35세 미만 취업 인구

집중도(전체 취업자 비중 대비 35세 미만 취업자 비중) ···························255

〔그림 7-17〕 2013~2018년 산업별 고용 비중 변화와 35세 미만 취업 인구 집중도

(전체 취업자 비중 대비 35세 미만 취업자 비중) ·····································256

〔그림 7-18〕 2018년 35~54세 취업자 평균 교육 연수와 35세 미만 취업 인구 집중도

(전체 취업자 비중 대비 35세 미만 취업자 비중) ·····································257

Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

〔그림 7-19〕 2018년 산업별 상용직 비율과 35세 미만 취업 인구 집중도

(전체 취업자 비중 대비 35세 미만 취업자 비중) ·····································258

〔그림 7-20〕 2018년 산업별 35세 미만 취업자 비율과 2018~2038년 20~34세

취업자 비율 변화 추정치 ············································································264

〔그림 7-21〕 2018년 산업별 로그평균임금과 2018~2038년 20~34세 취업자

비율 변화 추정치 ························································································265

〔그림 7-22〕 2018년 산업별 35~54세 취업자 로그평균임금과 2018~2038년

20~34세 취업자 비율 변화 추정치 ····························································266

〔그림 7-23〕 2013~2018년 산업별 고용 비중 변화와 2018~2038년 20~34세

취업자 비율 변화 추정치 ············································································266

〔그림 7-24〕 2018년 산업별 35~54세 취업자 평균 교육 연수와 2018~2038년

20~34세 취업자 비율 변화 추정치 ····························································267

〔그림 7-25〕 2018년 산업별 상용직 비율과 2018~2038년 20~34세 취업자

비율 변화 추정치 ························································································267

〔그림 8-1〕 중국 국방비 추이 ··························································································283

〔그림 8-2〕 중국 군사체제 개혁 전후 비교 ·····································································285

〔그림 8-3〕 최근 10년 한·중·일 국방비 증가 추이 ························································287

〔그림 8-4〕 한미연합지휘구조 전환 ··················································································298

〔그림 8-5〕 병력 구조 변경(2009~2020년) ····································································305

〔그림 8-6〕 국방개혁 2.0의 상비병력 감축 계획 ····························································308

〔그림 8-7〕 병역 이행 개요(총괄) ····················································································312

〔그림 8-8〕 21개월과 18개월 복무 시 신규 연간 입영 소요 ·········································315

〔그림 8-9〕 구시나리오와 신시나리오의 19세 남성 인구 추계 비교 ······························316

〔그림 8-10〕 신시나리오 및 구시나리오 기준 19세 남성 추계 및 과부족 ·····················318

〔그림 8-11〕 국방개혁 기본계획에 따른 입영 소요 인원과 인구 시나리오 비교 ············319

〔그림 8-12〕 시나리오별 19세 남성 인구 비교 ·······························································321

〔그림 8-13〕 GDP 대비 국방비 추이 ··············································································325

〔그림 9-1〕 출생아 수 및 합계출산율 추이와 전망(1970~2028년) ································346

〔그림 9-2〕 사망률 및 생존율 변화 ·················································································358

〔그림 9-3〕 신생아 생존율의 연도별 변화 추이 ······························································358

〔그림 9-4〕 국가별 극소체중아(VLBWI) 및 초극소저체중아(ELBWI) 생존율 비교 ········359

〔그림 9-5〕 뇌성마비, 미숙아, 저체중아 빈도 변화 ·························································371

〔그림 9-6〕 UN 자료에서 나타난 한국의 영아 사망률의 변화 양상 ·······························408

〔그림 9-7〕 한국의 영아 및 신생아 사망률의 감소 추이 ················································409

〔그림 9-8〕 지난 20년 동안 한국, 미국, 일본의 영아 사망률의 변화 양상 ···················410

〔그림 9-9〕 2008년 기준 OECD 국가 사이의 영아 사망률 비교 ··································410

〔그림 9-10〕 세 미만 아동의 차량 내 안전보호장치 사용 빈도 ·····································413

〔그림 10-1〕 질병 분류별 연령별 현황: 태아 발육 지연, 태아 영양실조와

단기 임신 및 저체중 출산과 관련된 장애(2007~2017년) ························439

〔그림 10-2〕 고위험 임신 다빈도 8개 질환 입원 환자 수 ·············································445

〔그림 10-3〕 향후 20여 년간 우리나라 모체태아의학 교수진 인원 예측 ·······················466

〔그림 11-1〕 개인의 적응과 사회의 구조적 대응 ····························································514

〔부도 4-1〕 긍부정 분석 사회정책 부문 간 비교 ····························································551

〔부도 4-2〕 34종 감성 분석 사회경제 부문 간 비교 ······················································552

〔부도 4-3〕 노동 부문 긍부정 비중 분석 시계열 ····························································553

〔부도 4-4〕 노동 부문 34종 감성 비중 분석 시계열 ······················································553

〔부도 4-5〕 교육 부문 긍부정 비중 분석 시계열 ····························································553

〔부도 4-6〕 교육 부문 34종 감성 비중 분석 시계열 ······················································554

〔부도 4-7〕 국방 부문 긍부정 비중 분석 시계열 ····························································554

〔부도 4-8〕 국방 부문 34종 감성 비중 분석 시계열 ······················································554

〔부도 4-9〕 아동 건강 부문 긍부정 비중 분석 시계열 ····················································555

〔부도 4-10〕 아동 건강 34종 감성 비중 분석 시계열 ····················································555

〔부도 4-11〕 여성 건강 긍부정 비중 분석 시계열 ··························································555

〔부도 4-12〕 여성 건강 34종 감성 비중 분석 시계열 ····················································556

Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

Population Change and Future Social Policy Directions

1)Project Head: Lee, So-Young

ver the past half century, South Korea has experienced rapid

decline of fertility. Since 2001, the fertility rate has remained at

lowest-low levels. Such a population change will affect future

society in various ways.

Recently the Korean government has shifted the focus of its

policy responses to low fertility from improvement of birth rate

to improvement of quality of life, establishment of gender

equality, and active preparation for demographic changes.

This study aims at diagnosing the socioeconomic impact of

the population change and suggesting future social policy

directions. The policy areas that are affected by birth declines

include education, labor market, national security (defense),

and health for children and youth and women. An analysis of

prospective population estimates and big data based analysis of

feelings and thoughts regarding population changes. Based on

the results of the analysis, directions are suggested for re-

sponses to low fertility in each social policy area. More im-

portantly, social policies should be flexible enough to allow for

expected and unexpected population changes.

*Key words: Low birth rate, population decline, future social policy

Co-Researchers: Chang, Insu·Lee, Sam-Sik·Lee, Chul-Hee·Shin, Son-Moon·Shin,

Seong-Ho·Park, Hyun-Kyoung·Son, In-Sook·Shin, Ho-Sung·Oh, Soo-Young·Choi, Yong-Seong

Abstract

1. 연구의 배경 및 목적

저출산과 고령화로 집약되는 우리나라의 인구 구조 변화는 사회의 모

든 측면에 영향을 끼치는 중요한 현상이다. 정부는 2006년부터 10년 이

상 세 차례의 저출산·고령사회 기본계획(2006~2020년)을 통해 출생아

수의 감소와 이로 인한 인구 구조의 변화에 대응하고 있으나, 오랜 기간

지속되는 초저출산 현상, 더욱이 예상보다 급격한 출생아 수 감소에 대한

대응에 한계를 보이고 있다. 정부는 2018년 12월 ‘저출산·고령사회 정책

로드맵’을 발표하면서 ‘모든 세대의 삶의 질 제고’와 ‘계층·성·세대 간 통

합·연대 등 포용 국가로의 패러다임 전환’을 선언하였다. 이를 통해 ‘모든

세대의 삶의 질을 보장’하고 ‘미래 세대에 대한 사회 투자를 확대’하는 것

으로 정책 방향을 설정하였다. 즉, 저출산 현상을 국가 위기로 규정하고

이를 완화하고 제거하는 것에서 저출산 현상에 적응하며 삶의 질을 제고

하고자 하는 새로운 패러다임으로 전환할 것을 선언하였다. 따라서 이러

한 패러다임을 적용하여 출생의 감소와 이로 인한 인구 규모 감소에 적응

하기 위한 국가 사회정책의 방향성을 설정할 필요가 있다. 이러한 배경하

에 이 연구는 미래를 생각하며 미래의 인구를 전망하고 미래 사회 대응

정책 방향을 모색하였다.

2. 주요 연구 결과

최근 1~2년 동안 웹 크롤링과 엄밀한 자료 전처리 과정을 거쳐 구축된

자료에 머신러닝 기법을 적용하여 출생아 감소 및 인구 감소에 대한 국민

요 약

4 출생 및 인구 규모 감소와 미래 사회정책

들의 감성을 분석한 결과는 대체로 부정적인 것으로 나타났다. 연관어 및

텍스트 랭크 분석을 통해 각 부문의 정책적 대응 방안에 대하여 살펴본

결과 노동 부문의 경우 취업 및 고용 안정성, 교육 부문의 경우 학령 인구

감소에 대응하는 양적·질적 측면의 교육 수급 구조 개선, 국방 부문의 경

우 인구 감소에 대응하는 관점에서의 복무 기간 조정, 병역 의무제도 개

선, 아동 건강 및 여성 건강 부문의 경우 아동 건강 제고 정책 및 관련 사

업, 임신 관련 지원 사업의 내실화, 구체화와 같은 정책 욕구가 도출되었

다. 국민인식조사 결과 출생아 감소에 대한 대응 주체는 대체로 개인보다

사회에 더 비중을 두고 있었다.

단기 정책으로서 가장 욕구가 높은 정책은 ‘자녀 양육에 대한 경제적

지원’이었으며 중장기 정책으로 “삶의 질을 보장받을 수 있는 사회 환경

마련 측면의 안전망 확대”가 가장 우선적으로 추진되어야 한다고 응답하

였다. 전문가를 대상으로 한 델파이조사 결과 출생아 감소 및 인구 감소

에 대응하기 위하여 가장 우선적으로 추진되어야 할 정책 영역으로 노동

부문과 보육·교육 부문이 가장 높게 나타났다. 교육 영역에서 중요하게

추진되어야 할 정책은 ‘실질적 기회 균등 실현’으로 나타났고, 노동 분야

에서 가장 중요하게 추진되어야 할 정책으로 ‘(괜찮은) 일자리 창출’과

‘노동시장 이중 구조 완화’가 제시되었으며, 국방 영역에서 중요하게 추

진되어야 할 정책으로 선택 비율이 가장 높게 나타난 것은 ‘병력 감축에

따른 기술 고도화’였다. 보건의료(모성 건강 및 아동 건강) 분야에서 가장

중요하게 추진되어야 할 정책은 ‘건강보험 보장성 강화’, ‘건강불평등 완

화’, ‘예방적 보건서비스 확대’ 순으로 나타났다.

요약 5

3. 결론 및 시사점: 미래 사회정책

출생아가 감소하는 현상에 대응하고 적응하기 위해 미래 교육 정책을 인

구의 질적 측면인 미래 세대를 위한 투자의 관점에서 살펴본 결과 미취학

아동을 대상으로 양질의 교육을 받을 수 있도록 하는 정책이 가장 중요하

며, 초등학생들의 비인지 역량을 함양시킬 수 있는 인성교육과 양질의 중

등교육이 필요하고, 고등교육에 투자하여 높은 수준의 지식을 가진 인재를

길러내고 새로운 지식 가치를 창출해 내는 정책이 필요하다고 볼 수 있다.

미래 노동 정책에서는 개인, 지역, 산업 부문 등을 몇 가지 유형으로 구

분하여 맞춤형 방안을 준비하는 것이 바람직할 것이다. 인구 변화에 대한

대응과 관련된 노동시장 정책의 가장 중요한 단기적 과제는 부문 간, 노동

자 유형 간 노동 수급 불균형 문제를 완화하는 것이다. 청년 인구 감소가

가져올 잠재적인 문제를 완화하기 위해서는 노동시장의 수요 변화에 대응

하여 인적자본 공급이 탄력적으로 이루어지고, 부문 간 노동 이동성이 높

아질 수 있도록 교육 및 노동시장 시스템을 개혁할 필요가 있다. 장기적인

인구 고령화와 이로 말미암은 잠재적인 노동 인력 부족 및 생산성 저하를

완화하기 위해 대다수의 선진국들과 근래의 우리나라에서 고려한 바 있는

가장 대표적인 대응 전략은 고령 인구의 고용을 확대하는 것이다.

국방 영역에서의 인구 변화 추이와 인구 감소는 단기적으로 2030년까

지 추진되고 있는 국방개혁 기본계획을 달성하는 데에 장애로 작용될 수

있다. 가중되는 국방 인력 수급 부담과 국방 비용, 그리고 증가하는 복지

비용에 대처하기 위한 종합적인 인력 확충, 예산 확보의 정책적 접근이

필요하다. 또한 빅데이터와 사물인터넷을 기반으로 초고도화된 인공지능

의 시대로 요약되는 4차 산업혁명이 미래의 새로운 전쟁 양상을 이끌게

됨에 따라 출생아 감소에 따른 군 인력 감소를 보완할 주요한 요소로 활

6 출생 및 인구 규모 감소와 미래 사회정책

용하려는 적극적인 정책 노력이 필요하다.

아동 건강과 관련해서 살펴볼 때, 우리나라는 고위험 신생아의 출생과

주산기 의료체계의 문제점을 안고 있어 이를 개선하기 위한 제도적 노력

이 필요하다. 또한 출생아 수 감소를 극복하기 위해서는 모든 출생아가

건강하도록 하여야 하는바, 신경학적 후유 장애를 예방하기 위해 고위험

신생아 진료체계의 개선과 함께 소아재활치료 수가 신설 및 소아재활치

료기관의 증설과 관련 인력 양성이 필요하다. 출생 후 성인기까지 소아·

청소년 건강의 향상을 위해서는 영유아 건강검진에 이어 학동기 검진을

소아·청소년 검진으로 개편하여 생애 주기별 건강검진 체계를 구축하여

야 하며, 건강 증진의 기초가 되는 모유수유를 체계적으로 적절히 지원하

고 이를 위한 국가적 차원의 관련 법령 정비와 지원을 하여야 한다. 또한

영아 및 소아의 사망률을 낮추어 저출생을 극복하는 데 도움이 되도록 영

아돌연사증후군 예방 교육, 안전사고 예방 캠페인 등을 구체적으로 실시

하여야 한다.

여성 건강과 관련해 우리나라의 고위험 산모 및 신생아는 지속적으로

증가하는 반면, 이를 전문적으로 진료할 수 있는 우수 의료진을 확보하는

일은 점점 더 어려워지고 있다. ‘산모와 태아’ 두 명의 건강의 책임지는,

분만이라는 고강도의 의료 행위에 대한 사회적 저평가와 이로 인한 분만

기피 현상은 우리나라의 분만 취약지 발생의 주요 원인이다. 따라서 결혼

및 출산 연령 증가에 따라 예견되는 여성 건강 문제를 적절히 관리할 체

계를 구축하고, 분만을 담당할 의료 시설 및 인력의 확충을 위한 범정부

차원의 전향적인 대책 마련이 시급하다. 기술적으로는 현재 임신·출산 관

련 여러 가지 사업(분만 취약지 지원 사업, 고위험 산모·신생아 통합치료

센터 사업, 고위험 산모 의료비 지원 사업, 산모·신생아 건강관리 사업,

공공 산후조리원 사업 등)을 담당하는 부서가 각기 달라 체계적인 대응에

요약 7

한계가 있는바, 국가적인 임신·출산 정책을 총괄하는 전담 조직의 신설을

고려할 필요가 있다.

이 연구에서는 주어진 조건을 토대로 미래 인구 변화를 예측하였으나,

미래 인구 변화를 정확하게 예측하는 것은 불가능한 일이다. 인구의 변화

는 사회의 변화와 상호작용한다. 사회는 다양한 정책을 통해 구조적인 대

응을 하되 새로운 변화에 유연하게 대응할 수 있도록 정책을 설계해야 할

것이다.

*주요 용어: 출생아 감소, 인구 감소, 미래 사회정책

서 론

제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적

제2절 연구의 내용 및 방법

1제 장

제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적

한국의 출생아 수가 급격히, 그리고 지속적으로 감소하는 것은 세계에

서 유례를 찾아보기 힘든 현상이다. 한국 사회는 가임기(15~49세) 여성

한 명이 가임 기간 동안 낳을 것으로 예상되는 평균 자녀 수인 합계출산

율(TFR: Total Fertility Rate)이 1983년 2.1명이라는 인구대체 수준이

된 이후 지속적으로 감소하고 있다(통계청, 2018a; 통계청, 2017a). 합

계출산율은 1990년대에 1.6명 수준에서 어느 정도 안정화되었으나, 경

제위기(IMF) 직후(1998)부터 급감하여 2005년에 1.08명으로 최저점에

도달하였으며, 이후 1.3 이하의 초저출산 현상이 지속되고 있다(통계청,

2018a; 통계청, 2017a). 더욱이 통계청의 출생 통계에 따르면 2018년

합계출산율은 통계 작성 이래 최저치인 0.98명으로 나타났으며 2018년

출생아 수는 출생 통계 작성(1970년) 이래 최저인 32만 6900명으로 나

타났다(통계청, 2018a).

우리나라 전체의 인구 규모를 전망하기 위해 출생과 사망을 고려한 자

연 증가의 추이와 전망을 살펴보면 다음과 같다. [그림 1-1]은 장래인구

특별추계의 중위추계에 따른 결과 값을 제시하고 있다(통계청, 2019c).

출생아 수는 2017년 35만 명에서 지속 감소하여 50년 후인 2067년에는

21만 명으로 감소할 전망이다. 그러나 저위 추계에 따르면, 2067년 14만

명 수준으로 감소할 전망이다. 분명한 것은 출생아 수는 지속적으로 감소

하였으며, 향후에도 감소할 것으로 전망되고 있다는 것이다.

서 론

12 출생 및 인구 규모 감소와 미래 사회정책

〔그림 1-1〕 출생·사망·자연증가(1985~2067년)

(단위: 명)

자료: 통계청(2019c). 장래인구특별추계, p. 5.

출생아 수의 감소는 즉각적으로 유소년 인구(0~14세)의 감소를 일으

키며, 이어 생산연령인구(15~64세)의 감소를 일으킨다. 2019년 통계청

의 장래인구특별추계에 따르면 유소년 인구는 2017년 672만 명

(13.1%)에서 2067년 318만 명(8.1%)으로 감소할 전망이다. 인구성장

가정에 따라 유소년 인구는 2030년 최대 579만 명(10.8%)에서 최저

443만 명(8.7%), 2067년 최대 454만 명(10.0%)에서 최저 213만 명

(6.3%)까지 감소할 전망이다. 또한 생산연령인구(15~64세)는 2017년

3757만 명(73.2%)에서 2067년 1784만 명(45.4%)으로 절반 이상 감소

할 전망이다(통계청, 2019c).

우리나라의 출생아 수 감소는 그 크기와 속도, 지속성에 있어서 세계에

서도 그 유례를 찾아보기 힘든 현상이다. 출생아 수의 감소는 경제·사회

적 측면의 성장과 성숙을 어느 정도 이룬 국가에서 나타나는 일반적인

현상이나, 주목해야 할 점은 이러한 현상이 일시적이지 않고 지속적일

뿐만 아니라 더 악화되고 있으며 이로 인한 사회적 문제가 발생할 가능

성이 크다는 점에서 한국의 출생아 감소 현상은 예외적이며 국가적 관심

이 필요하다는 것이다.

제1장 서론 13

인구 감소 전망

(단위: 만 명, %)

구분 2017년 2020년 2030년 2040년 2050년 2060년 2067년

총인구(만 명)

5,136 5,178 5,193 5,086 4,774 4,284 3,929

0~14세 인구

(만 명)672 630 500 498 425 345 318

0~14세 인구

구성비(%)

13.1 12.2 9.6 9.8 8.9 8.0 8.1

15~64세 인구

(만 명)3,757 3,736 3,395 2,865 2,449 2,058 1,784

15~64세 인구

구성비(%)

73.2 72.1 65.4 56.3 51.3 48.0 45.4

주: 추계인구[중위(medium) 가정 시나리오]임.

자료: 통계청. (2019d). 장래인구특별추계. 국가통계포털. http://kosis.kr에서 2019. 5. 1. 인출.

이에 정부는 2006년부터 10년 이상 저출산·고령사회 기본계획(2006~

2020년)을 통해 출생아 수의 감소와 이로 인한 인구 구조의 변화에 대응

하고 있다. 저출산·고령사회 기본계획은 「저출산·고령사회 기본법」에 의

거하여 ‘저출산 및 인구의 고령화에 따른 변화에 대응하는 범국가 차원의

중장기적 정책 방향을 제시하는 정부 정책의 구체적인 실행 계획으로 이

해되고 있다. 그러나 정부의 지속적인 종합 대책의 수립과 추진에도 불구

하고, 정책의 실효성에 대한 비판과 개선 요구가 사회 곳곳에서 제기되고

있으며 이에 대응하여 국가 정책에 대한 패러다임이 전환되고 있다. 정부

는 2017년 말부터 저출산 대책의 최상위 정책 목표인 합계출산율 수치

목표(2020년까지 1.50명)를 버리고 저출산 대책을 중심으로 우리 인구

정책을 전면적, 획기적으로 재구조화하고 기조(paradigm)를 전환하겠다

는 의지를 보였고, 2018년 12월 저출산고령사회위원회에서는 ‘저출산·

고령사회 정책 로드맵’을 발표하여 모든 세대의 삶의 질을 제고하고 계

14 출생 및 인구 규모 감소와 미래 사회정책

층·성·세대 간 통합·연대 등 포용 국가로 패러다임을 전환하기 위한 정

책 방향을 구체화하였다(저출산·고령사회위원회, 2018). 특히, 기존의

출산 장려 기조의 정책 방향에서 모든 세대의 삶의 질을 보장하고 미래

세대에 대한 사회 투자를 확대하는 것으로 정책 방향을 설정하였다(저출

산·고령사회위원회, 2018).

사회 각계각층에서 현재 우리나라의 저출산 상황과 관련해서 염려하고

있는 것은 저출산으로 인한 부정적인 경제적 영향이다. 예를 들어, 최근

국회예산정책처의 연구에 의하면 우리나라의 저출산 기조가 2060년까지

지속될 경우 우리나라의 2060년 예측 GDP보다 약 3.3%에서 5% 하락할

것으로 분석되었다(김경수·허가형·김윤수·김상미, 2018). 또한, 생산연

령인구 감소로 인해 노동소득은 2060년 예측 시나리오에 비해 약 7.7%

에서 10.5% 감소하고 자본소득은 3.4%에서 4.9% 감소할 것으로 전망되

었다(김경수 외, 2018). 그리고 총투자와 수출 등 여러 거시경제지표에도

부정적인 영향을 끼칠 것으로 전망되었다(김경수 외, 2018). 저출산이 우

리나라 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 끼칠 것이라는 전망은 우리나라의

여러 학계에서 지속적으로 제기되고 있다. 하지만 이러한 연구에서 제시

하고 있는 부정적인 전망은 기본적으로 예측 연구에 기반한다. 예측 연구

의 문제점은 그러한 예측이 현재의 어떤 추세가 지속될 것이라는 가정하

에 이루어진다는 점이다. 특히 예측 연구는 추세선과 관련해서 직선(1차

항)을 포함한 여러 형태의 추세선을 가정하곤 하는데, 경제성장을 결정하

는 여러 요인의 변화는 어떤 특정한 추세선으로 가정하기에는 큰 한계가

있다. 대개 곡선은 여러 형태로 변하는데 그 곡선의 모양은 시기적으로

다르고 대외적인 요인으로 인해 시시각각 변하기 마련이다. 최근 통계학

분야의 세계적 석학이자 의사인 한스 로슬링(Hans Rosling)은 그의 저

서에서 학계 및 연구계에서 출판되고 있는 예측 연구의 문제점을 여러 측

제1장 서론 15

면에서 살펴보았다(Rosling, H., Rosling, O., & Ronnlund, A. ,

2018). 이러한 기존 연구를 토대로 우리나라의 저출산 여파를 판단하기

위해서는 우리나라와 유사한 국가를 토대로 수행된 연구를 살펴봐야 한

다. 하지만 현재 우리나라와 같이 어느 정도 경제성장을 이룬 국가를 대

상으로 저출산이 경제성장에 미친 효과를 내적타당성 있게 분석한 연구

는 매우 부족한 실정이다. 기존 문헌을 검토한 결과 하위(low) 혹은 중하

위(lower-middle) 소득 국가를 대상으로 저출산이 경제성장에 미친 효

과를 분석한 연구가 대부분인 것을 알 수 있다(e.g., Ashraf, Q. H.,

Weil, D. N., & Wilde, J., 2013).

저출산이 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 끼치는지를 타당성 있게 살펴보

기 위해서는 예측 연구보다는 지금까지의 자료를 기반으로 한 추론 연구

를 살펴보는 게 좀 더 바람직하다. 저출산과 경제성장 간의 관계를 연구

한 기존 문헌 중에 가장 권위 있는 연구는 Science지에 출판된 Lee, R.,

Mason, A., & Members of the NTA Network. (2014)의 연구이다.

이 연구는 40개 국가의 이전지출계정자료(National Transfer Account

Data)를 활용해 과연 저출산이 문제인가라는 근본적인 질문에 실증적으

로 접근하였다. 이 연구의 핵심 결론은 국가가 처한 상황에 따라 적정한

출산율이 천차만별이라는 것이다. 이 연구를 통해서 도출된 결론은 크게

네 가지이다. 첫 번째 결론은 인구대체출산율(replacement level fer-

tility, 약 2.1명)보다 높은 출산율을 기록하면 정부의 예산 측면에서는 도

움이 된다는 것이다. 하지만 그렇다고 해서 이렇게 인구대체출산율보다

높은 출산율이 경제성장 측면에서 좋다는 결론이 내려지는 것은 아니다.

두 번째 결론은 인구대체출산율에 약간 미치지 못하는 출산율을 유지하

는 것이 생활 수준에는 긍정적인 영향을 끼친다는 것이다. 세 번째는 인

구대체출산율보다 낮은 출산율을 유지�