dynamic social network analysis of al-qaeda cdt matthew r webb 1 november 2006 arl/usma technical...
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Dynamic Social Network Analysis of Al-Qaeda
CDT Matthew R Webb
1 November 2006
ARL/USMA Technical Symposium
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Agenda
• What is Dynamic Social Network Analysis?– Network Measures– Statistical Process Control
• Application: Al-Qaeda– Method– Preliminary Results
• Future Research• Questions
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What is Dynamic Network Analysis?
• Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the mathematical methodology of quantifying connections between individuals and groups.
• Dynamic SNA compares snapshots of a network over time to determine when the network changes.
TimeTime
ExperienceExperience
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Network Measures
• Key Network Measures– Density– Degree Centrality– Closeness Centrality– Betweeness Centrality– Diameter
Graph courtesy of Steve Borgatti
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Statistical Process Control
• Calculates a statistic from sequential measurements of a random process and compares it to a control limit.
• Used extensively in quality engineering.– Example cutting boards at a lumber mill
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Statistical Process Control
• Cumulative-Sum Control Chart– Good at detecting small changes in mean over time– Built in change point detection
• Calculate Zi value for each time-period.
• Two Charts (To Detect Increase and Decrease)
/0 ii xZ
},0max{ 1
ttt CkZC
},0max{ 1
ttt CkZC
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Application - Method
• The Office of Naval Research maintains network data on Al-Qaeda.
• Ran CUSUM Control Chart for three Network Measures (Betweeness, Closeness, and Density)
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Time
Betweeness
Density
Closeness
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Closeness CUSUM Chart for Al-Qaeda (1994-2004)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
C+
Application - Results
Signal
Change Point
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Closeness 0.0027 0.003 0.0028 0.0028 0.0031 0.003 0.0032 0.0034 0.0024 0.0015 0.0004Z -0.8729 1.0911 -0.2182 -0.2182 1.7457 1.0911 2.4004 3.7097 -2.8368 -8.7287 -15.9299C+ 0 0.5911 0 0 1.2457 1.8368 3.7372 6.9469 3.6101 0 0C- 0.3729 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.3368 10.5655 25.9955
Signal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
The control chart signals a change in the network in 2000/2001.
A MLE of the change point is 1997. - Increased activity of IG - Bright Star ’97 cut short - Feb ’98 Islamic Front - Embassy bombings in ’981997 was THE critical planning year for Al-Qaeda.
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Future Research
• New Data– IkeNet and TOEP Data
• Near-Complete Network Picture• More Snapshots
• New Approaches– What if Network Picture is Incomplete?– What Network Measures are the most telling?– Which Control Chart work best?
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Questions?