duncan brack associate fellow, chatham house...food, trade and deforestation duncan brack associate...

Food, trade and deforestation

Duncan Brack

Associate Fellow, Chatham House

The Future of Food – the Future of Biodiversity? ZSL, 21 October 2015

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2

Deforestation (Riau, Indonesia)


Deforestation (Borneo)


Global deforestation continues

• About 30% global land area covered by forests

• Deforestation continues, though slowing down: – 8.3m ha / year lost 1990–2000 (~Austria)

– 5.2m ha / year lost 2000–2010 (~Costa Rica)

• Deforestation accounts for ~10% global GHG emissions

• SDG 15.2: – ‘By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable

management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore

degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and

reforestation globally’


Deforestation (Argentina)


Deforestation (Cameroon)


Deforestation (Amazon)


Deforestation and agriculture

• Clearance for agriculture major global driver of

deforestation: – 53% of deforestation 1990–2008 (EU study, 2013)

– 80% of deforestation 2000–10 (Lexeme Consulting, 2012)

– 71% of tropical deforestation 2000–12 commercial agriculture;

of this, 49% associated with illegal conversion, 24% illegal agro-

conversion for export markets (Forest Trends, 2014)


Agricultural contributors to deforestation

• Meat production has

biggest impact on

deforestation – 57% of total

deforestation

(pasture + feed)

– 80% of this is pasture

for beef

• Main crops:

soybeans, maize,

oilpalm, rice,

sugarcane

46%

43%

11%

Contribution to deforestation from

Pasture Crops Crops for animal feed

Trade as a driver

• ~1/3 of deforestation embodied in crop production

exported – ~2/3 of total embedded deforestation is soy and palm oil

• 8% of deforestation embodied in livestock exported –

much higher domestic consumption

• EU important source of demand, accounting for 36% of

exported embodied deforestation, 1990–2008

• Top nine commodities: – Soy from Brazil (1), Argentina (3), Paraguay (5)

– Palm oil from Indonesia (4), Malaysia (8)

– Meat products from Brazil (2)

– Cocoa from Ghana (6), Nigeria (9)

– Nuts from Brazil (7)

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs


11


Soybean production is highly concentrated

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

CH analysis of FAOSTAT data

Top producers of soybeans, 2000-2012

Others

Uruguay

Canada

India

Paraguay

EU27

Argentina

Brazil

USA


Demand from China has transformed the global picture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

Chatham House Resource Trade Database

Top importers of soybeans, 1998-2012

Others

Iran

Viet Nam

Mexico

Japan

Thailand

Indonesia

EU27

China


Main uses: animal feed, biofuels


15

Palm oil


Palm oil production is even more highly concentrated

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

CH analysis of FAOSTAT data

Top producers of palm fruit, 2000-2013

Rest of world

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia


While the demand side is more diverse

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

Chatham House Resource Trade Database

Top importers of palm oil and palm kernel oil, 1998-2010

Others

Bangladesh

Egypt

USA

Pakistan

India

China

Malaysia

EU27


Enormous range of uses


Impacts on forests


Beef consumption 2000–14: little change

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

CH analysis of USDA-FAS data

Top ten consumers of beef

Other

Japan

Pakistan

Mexico

India

Russia

Argentina

China

European Union

Brazil

United States


Beef production 2000–11: little change

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mill

ion

to

nn

es


Top ten beef producers, 2000-2011

Others

Pakistan

Russia

Mexico

Australia

Argentina

India

China

EU27

Brazil

USA


Beef imports 2000–14: growth in new markets

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

to

nn

es


Top ten importers of beef, 2000-2014

Others

Chile

Canada

Venezuela

South Korea

EU27

China

Hong Kong

Japan

Russia

USA


Impacts on forests: Argentina

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Soy p

rod

uctio

n (m

illion

ton

nes)

Tree

co

ver

loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Argentina soy


Impacts on forests: Brazil

0

20

40

60

80

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Soy P

rod

uctio

n

(millio

n to

nn

es)

Gro

ss T

ree

Co

ver

Loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Brazil soy

0

2

4

6

8

10

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Beef P

rod

uctio

n

(millio

n to

nn

es)

Gro

ss T

ree

Co

ver

Loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Brazil beef


Impacts on forests: Indonesia

Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community

Tree Cover Loss 2000-2012

Tree Cover 2000

Other

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Oil P

alm Fru

it Pro

du

ction

(m

illion

ton

ne

s)

Gro

ss T

ree

Co

ver

Loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Indonesia oil palm fruit

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Palm

Oil Fru

it Pro

du

ction

(m

illion

ton

nes)

Gro

ss T

ree

Co

ver

Loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Indonesia palm oil


Impacts on forests: Malaysia

Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community

Tree Cover Loss 2000-2012

Tree Cover 2000

Other

0

50

100

150

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Oil P

alm Fru

it Pro

du

ction

(m

illion

ton

ne

s)

Gro

ss T

ree

Co

ver

Loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Malaysia oil palm fruit

0

5

10

15

20

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Palm

Oil P

rod

uctio

n

(millio

n to

nn

es)

Gro

ss T

ree

Co

ver

Loss

(m

illio

n h

ecta

res)

Malaysia palm oil


Growing concern over impacts

• Many private-sector initiatives to eliminate or reduce deforestation from their supply chains – Consumer Goods Forum target of zero net deforestation in

supply chains by 2020

• New York Declaration on Forests, 2014: – Support and help meet the private-sector goal of eliminating

deforestation from the production of agricultural commodities such as palm oil, soy, paper and beef products by no later than 2020, recognizing that many companies have even more ambitious targets

– EU and 7 member states signatories – Also 52 companies

• Increasing focus on corporate reporting of exposure to forest risk commodities


Policy options for consumer countries

• Promoting sustainable production: – Encouragement for certification initiatives, e.g. RSPO – Public procurement – REDD+

• Reducing consumption: – Resource efficiency and waste – Policies on biofuels

• Private sector actions: – Voluntary supply chain controls (e.g. palm oil) – Corporate reporting requirements – Financial due diligence

• Market access: – Deny access to illegal conversion timber

• All aim to eliminate deforestation from supply chains

Thank you


Duncan Brack

[email protected]

duncan brack associate fellow, chatham house...food, trade and deforestation duncan brack associate...

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