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Dun & Bradstreet’s
Global Economic Outlook
2020 Vision
Country Risk Team
February 2016
2
Country Risk Services
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Economic downturns, political upheaval, and natural disasters can all have an impact on
global trade. Unrest can result in overnight barriers to imports, added taxes to exports,
piracy activity in key shipping lanes, and other substantial obstacles to global business.
D&B’s Country Risk Module provides comprehensive analysis on over 130 individual
countries that account for more than 95% of the global GDP, helping you understand:
Political Risk: How stable is the country’s government?
Economic Risk: Is the economy expanding or contracting?
External Risk: Is the currency stable or unstable?
Commercial Risk: Will I get paid and how quickly?
Trade Environment: Have import regulations changed?
Contact the teamD&B Country Risk Services
For information relating to D&B’s Country Risk Services.
UK Enquiry
Telephone: 01628 492700
Fax: 01628 492929
Email: [email protected]
International Enquiry
USA
Telephone: 1-800 234-3867 Option 1, 1, and then 2
Email: [email protected]
Reps are available M-F 8am-6pm eastern time
Rest of World
Telephone: +44 1628 492700
Email: [email protected]
3
Connect with the team
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D&B’s Country Risk team includes seasoned economists who compile and analyze country-specific insights from all major sources:
finance ministries, central banks, local chambers of commerce, embassies, trade organizations, and other economic data sources such
as the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Development, and EU.
Michelle Campbell Latin America [email protected]
Jaspreet Sehmi Eastern Europe & Central Asia [email protected]
Warwick Knowles Middle East & North Africa [email protected]
Isaac Leung Asia Pacific [email protected]
Oana Aristide Asia Pacific, Nordic Region [email protected]
Adam Morehouse Asia Pacific, North America [email protected]
Bodhi Ganguli North America, Sub-Saharan Africa [email protected]
Daniele Fraietta Central Europe [email protected]
Markus Kuger Western Europe [email protected]
Stay Tuned next week to set yourself up for success in 2016 – and beyond:
Next-Generation Risk Intelligence
Wednesday February 17 – 2 pm ET
Register: http://businessinsight.dnb.com/CFO_Cirrus_Webinar_0216
The smart thing to do: tune in!
4
Agenda
1. Our view of the world in 2016
2. Regional outlook
3. Risks to 2020
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1. Our view of the world in 2016
6
Much has changed over the last 20 years as
the world has become a riskier place
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CIPS Global Risk Index (CIPS GRI) – powered by Dun & Bradstreet (100=Most Risk)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3
19
94
Q1
19
95
Q3
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q3
19
96
Q1
19
97
Q3
19
97
Q1
19
98
Q3
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q3
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Source: CIPS, Dun & Bradstreet
North America
Latin America
Asia Pacific
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Western & Central Europe
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
7
Giant upstream investment bubble of
historic proportions: steelmaking
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0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
39
19
44
19
49
19
54
19
59
19
64
19
69
19
74
19
79
19
84
19
89
19
94
19
99
20
04
20
09
20
14
Source: World Steel Association, IMF, UN, D&B
World Steel Production (000 tonnes)
World Population (1950 = 100)
World Economic Output (2005 = 100)
Global Crude Steel Output
First Oil Crisis
Second phase of Chinareforms complete
Global Financial Crisis
8
Collapsing crude prices a weakness for some,
will be a benefit for others
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Saudi Arabia Azerbijan Iraq Kazakhstan Bolivia Norway Russia Nigeria Malaysia
Source: World Bank, Dun & Bradstreet
Fuel Exports as a percentage of GDP (2013)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Belgium Bulgaria South Korea Thailand Senegal Lebanon Ukraine Morrocco India
Source: World Bank, Dun & Bradstreet
Fuel Imports as a percentage of GDP (2013)
9
The last time commodities were this cheap
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Natural gas: US Oct-1995
Gasoline: US Gulf Coast Apr-2004
Crude oil: WTI Apr-2004
Crude oil: Brent Jun-2004
Coal: Australia Jan-2007
Iron Ore: Tianjin Dec-2007
Aluminium May-2009
Copper May-2009
Zinc: UK May-2009
Cotton: Liverpool Oct-2009
Natural gas: US * Jan-1991
Crude oil: Brent Nov-2003
Gasoline: US Gulf Coast Dec-2003
Crude oil: WTI Dec-2003
Coal: South Africa Jan-2004
Copper Sep-2005
Iron Ore: Tianjin Dec-2007
Zinc: UK Mar-2009
Source: Financial Times, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dun & BradstreetData as of December 2015 or in some cases November 2015
Nominal Basis Real Basis-deflated using US: CPI (NSA, 1982-84=100)
* Cheapest since records began.
10
Investor exposure to the oil and gas sector varies
across countries
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Emerging Europe
oil gas
non-oil andgas
Canada TSX
oil gas
non-oil andgas
FTSE 100
oil gas
non-oil andgas
Emerging Economies
oil gas
non-oil andgas
S&P 500
oil gas
non-oil andgas
FTSE World
oil gas
non-oil andgas
Equity market exposure to the oil and gas sector(December 2015)
Source: FTSE, Standard & Poor’s , Dun & Bradstreet
2. Regional outlook
Latin America
13
Investors’ sentiment and expectations
on downtrend
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1
05
Q3
05
Q1
06
Q3
06
Q1
07
Q3
07
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
15
Q3
15
Economic expectations/sentiment Current economic situation
Source: Sentix, Dun & Bradstreet
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Source: Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Annual real GDP growth (%)
Latin America & Caribbean World
14
Interest rates hiked as inflation
expectations build and US Fed tightens
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1
05
Q2
05
Q3
05
Q4
05
Q1
06
Q2
06
Q3
06
Q4
06
Q1
07
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Source: Banco Central do Brazil, Instituto Brasilerio de Geografia e Estatistica, Dun & Bradstreet
Brazil: Interest Rate: Selic - Target Rate (EOP, %) Brazil: Natl Consumer Price Index [Extended,IPCA] (SA, Dec-93=100) % Change - Year to Year
15
Deteriorating debt-service ratio
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1
05
Q2
05
Q3
05
Q4
05
Q1
06
Q2
06
Q3
06
Q4
06
Q1
07
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Source: Banco Central do Brasil, Dun & Bradstreet
Brazil: External Indebtedness: Debt Service / Exports (EOP, %)
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
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Eastern Europe & Central Asia: key issues
Marked deceleration in GDP growth reflecting ‘new normal’ of lower oil prices…
2016-2020: 2.4%
2004-2008: 7.0%
Oil price slump has prompted shift to freely floating exchange rate regimes: Russia
(Nov 2014); Kazakhstan (Aug 2015); Azerbaijan (Dec 2015)
Geopolitical tensions persist…
Despite abatement of fighting between Ukrainian troops & Russian-backed separatists in
eastern Ukraine, sporadic flare-ups occur and full resolution remains a distant prospect.
Structural impediments continue to hamper the business environment and restrain
long-term growth potential…
18Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Sluggish investment trend set to continue…
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (annual % change)
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Source: World Bank, Dun & Bradstreet
19Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Risks & opportunities
Risks Opportunities
Ageing population – deficiency in labour supply
Poor infrastructure and endemic corruption persist
Geopolitical tensions escalate – increase in protectionist measures
Lower demand for non-essential goods
Social unrest – disruptions to business continuity
Budget retail
Drive to diversify – opportunities to invest in nascent sectors, e.g. agriculture
Domestic tourism
Infrastructure development –opportunities for foreign investors, e.g. Kazakhstan – Strategy 2050
The ‘grey dollar’
Middle East and North Africa
21
Factors affecting investment in MENA to 2020
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Barriers
− Security Issues
− Hydrocarbon Dependency
− Business Environment
Drivers
+ Easing of sanctions on Iran
+ Liberalisation and diversification policies in oil rich
countries
22
Hydrocarbon Dependency and Vulnerability
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Source: Dun & Bradstreet
23
Structural issues undermining investment
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Sources: World Economic Forum, World Bank, Transparency International, Dun & Bradstreet
Asia Pacific
25
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Japan GDP per emp Japan GFCF per emp US GDP per empl US GFCF per empl
Japan’s problem is dramatically low
investment
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Index 1995=100
Source: BLS, BEA, Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Cabinet Office of Japan, Dun & Bradstreet
26
India: GDP output growth improves but corporate debt, bank
asset quality are concerns and create downside risks
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Mar
'09
Mar
'10
Mar
'11
Mar
'12
Mar
'13
Mar
'14
Mar
'15
Jun
'15
Sep
'15
Sales Growth
Net Profit Growth
5.0
6.2
4.44.1
7.27.5
6.6
5.3
7.4
8.4
6.8
6.1
7.17.4
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Real output growth
3.4
4.4
4.8
5.1
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Mar'13 Dec'13 Dec'14 Sep'15
Positives – tentative recovery in real output growth and profitability since 2014
Concerns – distressed debt 11% total – 16% of corporations have interest rate coverage < 1.0
Corporate ProfitabilityBank Asset Quality –nonperforming loans % total
Source: Central Statistics Office, Reserve Bank of India, Dun & Bradstreet India
27Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
China faces a potential debt crisis
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1
-19
99
Q3
-19
99
Q1
-20
00
Q3
-20
00
Q1
-20
01
Q3
-20
01
Q1
-20
02
Q3
-20
02
Q1
-20
03
Q3
-20
03
Q1
-20
04
Q3
-20
04
Q1
-20
05
Q3
-20
05
Q1
-20
06
Q3
-20
06
Q1
-20
07
Q3
-20
07
Q1
-20
08
Q3
-20
08
Q1
-20
09
Q3
-20
09
Q1
-20
10
Q3
-20
10
Q1
-20
11
Q3
-20
11
Q1
-20
12
Q3
-20
12
Q1
-20
13
Q3
-20
13
Q1
-20
14
Q3
-20
14
Q1
-20
15
Q3
-20
15
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bank for International Settlements, D&B
China: Debt Service Ratio of Private Nonfinancial Sector (%)
China: Lending Rate: Longer than 5 Years (% per annum)
28Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Investment in upstream sector – China’s bubble
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Q4-2
00
4
Q2-2
00
5
Q4-2
00
5
Q2-2
00
6
Q4-2
00
6
Q2-2
00
7
Q4-2
00
7
Q2-2
00
8
Q4-2
00
8
Q2-2
00
9
Q4-2
00
9
Q2-2
01
0
Q4-2
01
0
Q2-2
01
1
Q4-2
01
1
Q2-2
01
2
Q4-2
01
2
Q2-2
01
3
Q4-2
01
3
Q2-2
01
4
Q4-2
01
4
Q2-2
01
5
Q4-2
01
5
Source: China Bureau of National Statistics, Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Coal Mining, Washing
Petroleum & Natural Gas Extractn
Non-Metal Minerals Mining
Ferrous Metals Mining
Non-Ferrous Metals Mining
Smelting & Pressing of NonFerrous Metals
Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals
China - Domestic upstream sector investment - CNY billions, 4-quarter moving average
Sub-Saharan Africa
30Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Exposure to China will exacerbate commodities bust
and widen fiscal deficits
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Source: World Bank, IMF, Dun & Bradstreet
Select Commodity Prices, change from Jan 2013, %
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nigeria
Zambia
South Africa
Ghana
Gabon
Ethiopia
Zimbabwe
Angola
Congo, Rep.
Sierra Leone
2014 Exports to China, % of Total
31Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Weak regional currencies are fueling inflation, undoing
years of improvement
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Somali Shilling
Sierra Leone Leone
Ethiopian Birr
Mauritian Rupee
Kenyan Shilling
Ghana Cedi
Nigerian Naira
Botswana Pula
Ugandan Shilling
Tanzanian Shilling
Angolan Kwanza
Malawian Kwacha
South African Rand
Mozambique New Metical
Zambian Kwacha
Currency vs. USD, %, Oct 2014 to Dec2015 (-value = depreciation)
0 5 10 15 20
Mauritius
Botswana
South Africa
Tanzania
Kenya
Uganda
Nigeria
Angola
Ghana
Zambia
CPI inflation, % (Q4 2015 average)
Source: Bloomberg, Country Statistical Offices, Dun & Bradstreet
North America
33Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Our proprietary micro data suggest a modest, steady
trajectory for the U.S. …
34Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
… And drive our near term baseline outlook
• D&B’s real GDP forecasts, % SAAR:
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
2.2 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q12005
Q32005
Q12006
Q32006
Q12007
Q32007
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Q12013
Q32013
Q12014
Q32014
Q12015
Q32015
GDP, % SAAR, 2-qtr lagged
SBHI, level
35Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Consumers well placed to lead, with less drag from
public sector
450
500
550
600
650
700
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Rea
l PC
E, %
y/y
Source: BEA, US Federal Reserve, Dun & Bradstreet
Household Net Worth, % ofDisposable Personal Income (R)Durables
Non-durables
Services
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
Reduced Fiscal Drag
Federal
State & Local
Contribution to GDP, % points
36Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Headwinds are mostly external, keeping the dollar
strong
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.2
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Jan
-20
13
Mar
-20
13
May
-20
13
Jul-
20
13
Sep
-20
13
No
v-2
01
3
Jan
-20
14
Mar
-20
14
May
-20
14
Jul-
20
14
Sep
-20
14
No
v-2
01
4
Jan
-20
15
Mar
-20
15
May
-20
15
Jul-
20
15
Sep
-20
15
No
v-2
01
5
Source: BEA, ISM, Bureau of the Census, Dun & Bradstreet
Dollar Strength Remains a Drag ...
ISM Mfg: New Export Orders Index (SA,50+ = Econ Expand) 3-monthMovingAverage
Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted ExchangeValue of the US$ (Jan-97=100), invertedscale
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
% y
/y
… With Implications for Capex
Corporate Profits
Core Capital GoodsOrders
37Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Fed has ambitious rate hike targets in 2016, but will
struggle to execute them
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Targ
et
FFR
at
End
-of-
year
, %
Source: US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Dun & Bradstreet
December 2014
March 2015
June 2015
September 2015
December 2015
Market implied, Jan 04, 2016
Revised down
No change in Dec
Europe
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Deflationary pressures will slowly recede
• Inflation rates currently significantly undershoot the target rate
• Over the long run, we expect inflation to return to the 2.0% target.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Eurostat, Dun & Bradstreet
Inflation (in %)
Eurozone France Germany Greece Spain
40Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Labour market conditions are gradually brightening
• However, differences remain at the country-level
• Periphery is benefitting from labour market reforms
Source: Various National Statistics Offices, Dun & Bradstreet
41Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
Key risks
Images are sourced from: Reuters, Getty Images , Franz Neumayr, Markus Tschepp,
3. Risks to 2020
43
1.Lower sales growth in high-profile
emerging markets 2016-2020
Follow us on Twitter @DnBUS | #DnBEconBrief
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
January 2015 January 2016
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
China India Russia Brazil South Africa
2019 forecast for 'B.R.I.C.S.’ economies - Gross Domestic Product (USD trn.)
USD24.7trn
USD18.9trn
44
2. Slower Chinese external demand will likely create trade
disruptions among dependent economies
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: IMF, Dun & Bradstreet
World: The annual share of exports to China P.R.
Advanced Economies: The annual share of exports to China P.R.
Oil Exporting Countries: The annual share of exports to China P.R.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: IMF, Dun & Bradstreet
Korea: The share of annual exports to China P.R. Australia: The share of annual exports to China P.R.
Chile: The share of annual exports to China P.R. Peru: The share of annual exports to China P.R.
Iran: The share of annual exports to China P.R. Iraq: The share of annual exports to China P.R.
45
3.Perfect storm for Swiss watch industry
shows how shocks can coalesce
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Factors contributing to the slump in sales
1. Macroeconomic: The Swiss Franc super-strengthening after the lifting of the cap on the Swiss franc.
2. Fashion/Technology: Smartwatches eating into the market.
3. Politics/Compliance: Crackdown on corruption in China
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
to
Ju
ly
Source: United Nations-COMTRADE, Dun & Bradstreet
Swiss watch exports 1996-2015, y/y % change watches: precious metal case
watches: precious metal case, hand-wound
watches: base metal case
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4. Compliance violations continue to add up and have
sizable effects on corporate earnings
2016
Goldman Sachs
Volkswagen
Major fines delivered by the US Department of Justice (Billions USD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010-2015
Source: Various News Agencies, Factiva, Dun & Bradstreet
Bank of America
BP
JP Morgan
BNP Paribas
Citigroup
Glaxosmithkline
Deutsche Bank
Estimates are
between
$26-86 for
Volkswagen
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5. The historical disaster damage on GDP
during the most severe El Nino/La Nina Years where (Oceanic Nino Index >=1 or <=-1) {Less geophysical damage}
Annual percentage Impact on GDP
Central America\South America Southern\Eastern Africa Southeast Asia
Source: Noaa, Em-Dat, Dun & Bradstreet
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Thin Red Wedge of Extreme Risk: how the global
distribution of country risk changed 2007-16
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
20
07
20
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Global distribution of country risk by economy size - % by GDP in USD billions
20162007
49
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and perspectives.
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