dsd-int 2014 - delft-fews users meeting - floodrisk management & delft fews workshop, caroline...
DESCRIPTION
Delft-FEWS Users MeetingTRANSCRIPT
October 2014
HR Wallingford Deltares Collaboration
Developing an operational flood-risk-forecasting toolkit
C. Hazlewood, E. Brown, L. Boelee, B. Gouldby, J. Lhomme A. de Leeuw, F. Diermanse, D. Bachman
© HR Wallingford 2014 October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 2
HR Wallingford
Specialise in engineering and environmental hydraulics, and in the management of water and the water environment
Formed 1947 Privatised 1982 Limited by guarantee Non profit distributing Independent Over 280 staff £25m turnover
© HR Wallingford 2014
Flood forecasting typically focuses on hazards e.g. river flows, water levels Flood risk management considers wider system performance e.g. defence failures; floodplain extents, depths & velocities; consequences; etc. Opportunity for richer ‘live’ information: What type of action can I take to mend a
weak spot? Where should I enforce my flood defence
system? Which areas should I evacuate first? Which least-cost areas could be actively
inundated to save other areas? October 2014
Why do we need something new?
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 3
© HR Wallingford 2014
Develop an operational flood-risk-forecasting toolkit
Toolkit of models in Delft-FEWS shell: hydrology river system (1D) dynamic breach growth rapid flood spreading (2D) impact assessment (risk to life, critical
infrastructure, economic consequence)
Move to: risk-based approach probabilistic e.g. rainfall ensembles,
defence performance October 2014
Collaboration Aims
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 4
© HR Wallingford 2014
Application of toolkit
Not one size fits all
Select important processes (and hence capability) for your catchment fluvial vs coastal urban vs rural flood risk infrastructure e.g. storage,
defences, pumps, barriers, etc.
Flexibility to use hierarchy of data and models - simple assumptions, generic datasets, detailed modelling October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 5
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 6
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014
Hydrological models e.g. WFLOW: A distributed hydrological modelling platform which includes derivations of SBM, HBV96, gr4h/d, a dynamic wave model, an associated flood mapping model HR Wallingford gridded model - computationally efficient, semi-distributed hydrological model providing spatially coherent estimates of river flow and groundwater level. (Counsell, 2014)
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 7
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014
River models - MASCARET Open Source 1D open-channel hydraulic software Originally developed by EDF, now managed by a consortia (Goutal and Maurel 2002; Goutal et al, 2012)
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 8
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 9
Reliability models/data e.g. Library of fragility curves for all asset types (> 60)
Tools such as: RELIABLE (Kortenhaus et al, 2008; FLOODsite), Hydra-Ring (Deltares)
Section 16
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Water level (m OD)
Pro
babi
lity
of fa
ilure
Total
Uplif ting
Piping
Sliding
Overturning
Reinforcement failure
Shear failure
Piping toe
Crest level
Indication extremew ater level
Numerical Integration
Structure-specificFault tree
Limit state equationFailure mode 1
Limit state equationFailure mode 2
Limit state equationFailure mode 3
Limit state equationFailure mode ..n
Structure-specific parameters, probability
distribution functions and ranges
Structure-specific fragility curve
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014
Breach model - AREBA Rapid breach growth - predicts flood hydrograph and breach widths and depths for surface, headcut and piping failures (Van Damme et al, 2012)
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 10
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014
Inundation model - RFSM-EDA Rapid Flood Spreading Model Explicit Diffusion wave with Acceleration terms Impact zones with volume-level and level-width curve Minimal loss of accuracy in topography description Developed by HR Wallingford (Jamieson et al, 2012)
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 11
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 12
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 13
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014
Impact models - economic assessment
Depth-damage curves for residential and commercial property, agriculture, key infrastructure e.g. FIAT (Deltares), Impact Calculator (HRW)
-1-0.75-0.5
-0.250
0.250.5
0.751
1.251.5
1.752
2.252.5
2.753
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500
Dept
h M
etre
s
Damage £/m2
Depth Damage Curve
HighSuscept ibilityBand
LowSuscept ibilityBand
Indica tiveSuscept ibility
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 14
© HR Wallingford 2014
Risk model framework
October 2014
Impact models - risk to life Agent-based modelling of the dynamic interaction of the flood wave from a breach or dam break with people, vehicles and property
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 15
© HR Wallingford 2014
Example outputs - flood likelihood (ensemble 1)
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 16
© HR Wallingford 2014
Example outputs - flood likelihood (ensemble 2)
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 17
© HR Wallingford 2014
Example outputs - flood damage (€, $)
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 18
© HR Wallingford 2014
Example outputs - defence risk (€, $)
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 19
© HR Wallingford 2014
Example outputs - Life safety
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 20
© HR Wallingford 2014
Scoping Study
Develop FEWS model adaptors Stage 1 - develop initial adaptors and
simple model linking (proof of concept) Stage 2 - extend capability to capture
dynamic interactions (model coupling) Stage 3 - incorporate more sophisticated
risk capability
Pilot system Trial methods at two locations in close
liaison with end users
October 2014
Project Steps
Delft-FEWS User Days Page 21
© HR Wallingford 2014
Questions - nature of information
What information would help your decision making? flood lead times, safest/quickest evacuation routes, knowing areas that can be
inundated to save other areas, weak defences, defences at risk of breach, defences at risk of overtopping probable flood extents, depths, velocities risk to people (injuries, fatalities) risk to critical infrastructure (power stations, transport, hospitals, etc.) economic risk, environmental risk
Would you use probabilistic information?
Would you use uncertainty information?
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 22
© HR Wallingford 2014
Questions - nature of system
How would you want the system to operate? e.g. in FEWS, stand-alone, ability to plug in wider models, web-link
What are the system requirements? e.g. computational speed, robustness, data storage and management
How would you like the outputs to be communicated? e.g. target audience, online, mobile phones
What functionality would help to make it even more useful to you? e.g. mapping, visualisation, animations, inter-activeness re effectiveness of
measures
October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days Page 23
Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, United Kingdom www.hrwallingford.com
October 2014