delft-fews: an operational model...
TRANSCRIPT
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Delft-FEWS: An operational model
integrator
Environmental Modelling Workshop, Alberta
March 13/14, 2013
Matthijs Lemans
Deltares USA
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Presentation Overview
• Characteristics of any forecast system
• Description of FEWS, a multi-purpose forecast environment
• FEWS and model control
• FEWS Displays
• Example FEWS applications as model integrator
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Forecast systems
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Operational Forecast System Purpose
Linking Forecasters, Regulators,
Model Developers,
Managers, and the Public
– By making good science
accessible to users
– By making models results
understandable
– Presenting current and past
observations
– With situational awareness
highlighting areas of
concern
– Generating Standard
Reports
0
5
10
15
20
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Gaarkeuken_meting
Gaarkeuken_v2.0_final
Gaarkeuken_v1.1.2.
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Elements of a Forecast System
Forecaster, Planner, Custodian...
Get data
Run/control
models
Assess data and
model guidance
Scientific
Assessment
Public
Decision?
User (Warnings, Releases, ...)
Public Action
Other Scientists
and Operators
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FEWS: Introduction and Architecture Delft – Flood Early Warning System
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coastal wq,
Delft-FEWS Systems Have Many Flavors
water quality
floods
Reservoir control
lakes
groundwater
dike strength
storm surge, navigation
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Delft-FEWS User Community
in development
operational service
• USA, NWS (Flw)
• USA, BPA (Flw, Res)
• Canada (Flw)
• UK (Flw, Gw)
• Netherlands (Dr, Flw, Wq, Ds)
• Germany (Flw)
• Suisse (Flw)
• Italy (Flw)
• Austria (Flw, Res)
• Spain (Flw)
• Singapore (WQ, Flw)
• Taiwan (Flw)
• South-Korea (WQ)
• Australia (Flw)
• Sudan
• Georgia
• Mekong River Commission (Flw)
• Indonesia (Peat, Flw)
• Azerbaijan (Flw)
• Zambezi (Dr, Flw)
• Colombia (Flw)
• Bolivia (Flw)
• Uruguay (Flw)
• Brazil (Flw, Res)
• ...
Flw
Dr
Wq
Res
Ds
Gw
Flow
Drought
Water Quality
Reservoir operation
Dike strength
Ground Water
www.delft-fews.com
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Delft-FEWS Philosophy
•FEWS is a data management
system!
•Toolbox for development of
forecasting systems
•Binding dataflows + models
•Fully ‘configurable’ by user
•Real-Time
•Rapid implementation, scalable &
flexible
•High resilient & automatic /
manual & stand alone
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DELFT-FEWS Concept
Delft-FEWS • Import
• Validation
• Transformation (e.g. Rating Curves)
• Interpolation (lineair and spatial)
• Data hierarchy
• General adapter for models
• Postprocessing
• Manual interaction
• Export / report (files, html, pdf,...)
• Data Visualization
• …
data (feeds)
• Meteo
• Hydro
• WQ
• ...
export &
dessimination
imp
ort
Models:
• Rainfall-runoff
• Hydraulics
• WQ
• ...
Mo
del a
dap
ter
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General Adapter
Module
Running models – how does it work
local datastore
FEWS
model
native files
(txt) native files
(txt)
xml files
(PI)
export
xml files
(PI)
pre-adapter run post-adapter run
model
run
import
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Delft-FEWS External Models – Model Adapters
• CEH Adapters (SNOWP, SNOW, PDM, KW, ARMA, TCM, HEC, GRID2GRID)
• HR (ISIS)
• PlanB Adapters (TRITON & PRTF)
• DHI Adapters (Mike11, NAM)
• Midlands Region (DODO, MCRM)
• Southern Region (STF)
• Northwest Region (NW TF – Common Adapter)
• Wales (SW Overtopping module - Common Adapter)
• SouthWest (Bruton/Holbeam Dam module – Common Adapter)
• Deltares (RTC Tools, Delft3D, SOBEK, RIBASIM, HYMOS, Sacrament, SSARR)
• SMHI (HBV)
• University of Karlsruhe (PRMS)
• JRC (Lisflood - PCRaster)
• NWS (SNOW17, SAC-SMA, UNIT-HG, LAG/K, SARRROUTE, SSARRESV, RESSNGL,
BASEFLOW, CHANLOSS, APICONT, CONSUSE, GLACIER, LAYCOEF, MUSKROUT,
RSNELEV, SACSMA-HT, TATUM)
• USACE (HEC-RAS, HEC-ResSim)
• University of Valencia (TETIS)
• EPA (EFDC, HSPF)
http://publicwiki.deltares.nl/display/FEWSDOC/Models+linked+to+Delft-Fews
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FEWS: Model Control
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Situational Awareness
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Model Connectivity
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Model Execution and Display
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Control of Model Input, States, Options
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What if scenario’s
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FEWS: Displays
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Customized Icons for the New England flood
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Threshold crossings
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Uncertainty: Performance Indicators
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FEWS: Longitudinal Display
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Spatial data
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Animation of flow fields
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FEWS: System Display (1)
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FEWS: System Display (2)
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Ensemble forecasting in England & Wales
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Exporting products
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FEWS: Model integrator
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Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
National River Forecasting System for National
Weather Service (NWS / OHD), USA
• 13 River Forecast Centers (RFC)
• > 1000 models per RFC (snow, rainfall-runoff,
routing, hydrodynamic)
• Interactive forecasting
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Water Quality Forecasting System for the Four
Major Rivers in Korea
• Monitoring water quality in the river and reservoirs
(including water temperature)
• 7 days forecast
• HSPF and EFDC 3D water quality modeling
• Better accuracy by using Data Assimilation through
‘openDA’
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Real time water quality management and
forecasting for Marina Bay, Singapore
Integration of scientific knowledge
in operational FEWS system:
• Hydraulic and hydrological
models
• Water quality model DELFT3D
• RTC model for barrage
• Emission model
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3/19/2013
Reservoir operations: BPA
Streamflow (Ensemble) forecasting
• Data Quality Control
• Snow Updating
• Hydrology and reservoir modeling
• Ensemble pre- and postprocessing
Reservoir system optimization
• RTC-Tools
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Prototype forecast system for cooling water
water levels
Excess Temperature
• From North Sea to Basel
• 3D in part of Hollandsch Diep estuary
• 2D till Hagestein and Dreumel
• 1D-2D-3D coupling under FEWS!
Can also model
salinity with this setup
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Conclusions
DELFT-FEWS:
• Is a world wide flexible forecasting tool
• Open to external data and models
• Creates collaboration
between forecasters and research groups
between forecast organizations
• Allows organizations to expand services and improve forecasts
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Thank You