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DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY Bradwell J. Garanganga SADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE e.mail: garangan@dmc.co.zw Website: http://www.dmc.co.zw International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation Lamgando Conference Hall, Impala Hotel, ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, 11-15 December 2006 Slide 2 SADC Drought Monitoring Centre Slide 3 Presentation Format 1.Introduction 2.History of the SADC DMC 3.Role of the SADC DMC 4.Tools / Products Climate monitoring Climate Prediction 5.Attachments/ Capacity building 6.Climate Outlook Fora, brief 7.Challenges & Opportunities 8.Planned activities 9.Summary Slide 4 Location of SADC member countries Slide 5 INTRODUCTION The Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an institution of Southern African Development Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states with well over 220 million inhabitants. The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, which often result in negative impacts such as land degradation The region is also susceptible to epidemiological diseases such as malaria and cholera that are influenced by climatic factors. Extreme climate variation impact negatively socio- economic development of the Member States. Slide 6 Slide 7 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC by African Gvts with WMO as Executing Agency. Together responsible for 22 countries of Eastern and Southern Africa Central objective to have regional approaches in mitigating adverse climate impacts to socioeconomic developments. Initial funding from UNDP Next funding from the Belgian Government, with a condition that SADC gradually takes over the funding of DMC Harare. Since April 2002, core activities are funded by SADC. However, programme activities are still being funded by cooperating partners:WMO, USAID, NOAA and others. Slide 8 ROLE OF THE SADC DMC 1) OBJECTIVE To contribute to mitigation of adverse impacts of extreme climate variations on sustainable socioeconomic development. This is achieved through the monitoring of near real-time climatic trends and generating medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range climate outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6 months) timescales. These products are disseminated in timely manner to the communities of the sub-region principally through the NMHSs, regional organizations, and also directly through email services to various users who include media agencies. Our products are readily available on our website: http:// www.dmc.co.zw, e.mail address is: dmcgen@dmc.co.zw Slide 9 The provision of early warning for the formulation of appropriate strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate extremes affords greater opportunity to decision-makers for development of prudent plans for mitigating the negative impacts on sustainable socio- economic development. Since, establishment, the center has played an important and central role in providing the sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warning on drought, floods and other extreme climate events Slide 10 Slide 11 2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES Developing and archiving of global, regional and national quality controlled climate databanks Providing of climate monitoring, prediction and application services, Conducting training and capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate products Organizing the climate and malaria outlook forums for the SADC region, and Enhancing the interactions with the user through regional users workshops and application pilot projects. Slide 12 CLIMATE INFORMATION Climate variability The basic driving mechanism of steady-state climate: solar radiation and the rotation of the earth The circulation patterns of the atmosphere in southern Africa Important for application in socio-economic sectors: extremes in climate states often lead to the dislocation of socio-economic developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc in the region from time to time. Climate Change The impacts of industrialization on climate system Important for application in socio-economic sectors Slide 13 EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION Southern African region socioeconomic development is influenced by climate variability. The El Nio/southern Oscillation phenomenon has impacts on the region Trends in global climate change have implications in the region Slide 14 Slide 15 Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC Droughts /Floods Unprecedented crop failures Decimation of livestock Virtual collapse of industries since both water shortage and hydropower failures are frequently likely Incidences of epidemiological diseases Mass destruction of infrastructures: roads; bridges; houses, etc Widespread suffering with loss of livestock and crops Slide 16 SADC DMC TOOLS The SADC DMC uses several tools to realize its objective and they are listed below: A Slide 17 30 Year Mean OND and JFM rainfall Slide 18 Composite El Nino SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom) Slide 19 Composite La Nina SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom) Slide 20 Slide 21 Pacific Basin SST (IRI) B C Slide 22 Selected Atmospheric Patterns Zonal wind Indian / Atlantic (IRI) D Slide 23 Slide 24 PRODUCTS Slide 25 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS Significant rainfall deficits across the southern half of the SADC region. Countries mostly affected BY deficits were Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern half of Mozambique and South Africa. Slide 26 October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: Most area had little rainfall. Country with the highest rainfall over this period (>150mm): DRC October circulation feature(s): ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure dominating southern parts. Slide 27 November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: First dekad was quite dry. Northern half had some decent rains. Areas with the highest rainfall over this period(>150mm): Northern Malawi Seychelles & Southern Tanzania. Most of southern half experienced little rain. November circulation feature(s): Depression over Mozambique Channel and ITCZ active over the northern parts. Slide 28 December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: Most areas had widespread rainfall, the swestern sector had little rainfall. Countries with the highest rainfall over this period(>90mm): DRC, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe & Malawi. December circulation feature(s): Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ over the North and central part and middle level high-pressure system over the south/southwest. Slide 29 OND TOTALS Overall, most of the SADC region experienced largely normal rains during the OND 2004. However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk of central South Africa, had well below-normal rainfall, less than 65%. Greater than 125 % was observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique, northeastern coast of Tanzania. Slide 30 Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for selected stations in the SADC Rainfall was well below normal from October to December for Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, Maun in Botswana, Queensland in South Africa. Slide 31 Parts of Malawi and north Mozambique had rains picking up sharply in Dec 2004 Slide 32 Rainfall was well below normal from October to December in DRC & Tanzania also. Slide 33 CLIMATE PREDICTION Prediction of future state of Atmosphere Understanding the physics of the atmosphere Using computer models (high power) Important for application in socio-economic sectors Basic approaches Analogue, Statistical and Dynamical Slide 34 Prediction What do we need to know to make a good prediction? the current state (initial conditions) how the current state will evolve Slide 35 El Nio Normal La Nia Boreal winter Boreal spring Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve Slide 36 Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans (but primarily in the tropics) can affect the overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling the air and affecting the amount of atmospheric moisture. Since these sea temperatures change fairly slowly, and can themselves be predicted, an influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated up to a few months in advance. Slide 37 Communicating Uncertainty Uncertainty is indicated by the probability that rainfall will be within a specified range. Uncertainty is high when the probability is high and the range is narrow. Slide 38 HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA Slide 39 Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the region 1 DJF SEASON Slide 40 SADC SEASONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK DJF 2006-2007 Slide 41 Slide 42 MAP1: Probabilities of Wet DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria Outlook REGIONS I,VII & IX HAS HIGH %GE OF EXCEEDING 75%NTILE Slide 43 MAP2: Probabilities of Dry DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook REGIONS II-VI & VIII HAVE HIGH PROB OF DRY INCIDENCES Slide 44 OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK Slide 45 OND 2005 VERIFICATION Slide 46 JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK Slide 47 JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION Slide 48 ATTACHMENT PROGRAMME The DMC has over the years hosted many scientists from mostly the subregion. It has also facilitated secondment of scientists to other global centres. Typically the scientists are hosted for a period of six months at a time at the DMC. Training SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' (NMHSs) staff on attachment at the DMC through guidance in conducting research in climate monitoring and prediction techniques. After undergoing the training, scientists in prediction and producing climate bulletins, they return to their countries to share their new skills with other colleagues. Slide 49 3. CAPACITY BUILDING In addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on attachment DMC with assistance from other scientists, develop climate monitoring and prediction techniques for developing Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) products. Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through capacity 1-2 week building workshops and SARCOF. Strengthening links with users from sectors such as health, food security (early warning systems), water resources management, media, tourism industry, etc. Slide 50 The aim of the pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in generating climate outlook products at national level. User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources) have been incorporated into the process so as to enhance the effective dissemination and application of climate monitoring and prediction information, and to create good working relations between the climate scientists and the various weather-sensitive sectors. Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9 pre- SARCOF capacity building workshops, including two media water resources and livestock workshops. In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting system are identified from previous experiences and attempts are made to address already recognised weaknesses. Slide 51 4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa Climate Outlook forums (SARCOF), To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook form for the SADC region. Create a platform for interaction between the users and the climate scientists to enhance the application of meteorology to the reduction of climate related risks to food security, water resources and health for sustainable socio-economic development in the SADC region Slide 52 Aug - SeptSept CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP CONSENSUS MEETING In Addition User (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and Disaster) Workshops The SARCOF Process Slide 53 The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22%. For January to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54%. A good model evaluated over a period of more than ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0% The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook therefore was useful as its skill scores were within the skill score ranges of a good model. Verification of SARCOF Slide 54 This will immensely benefit users of climate services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and institutions from both public and private sectors. Slide 55 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Inadequate infrastructure and appropriate capacity (human and equipment), Lack of coordination and communication between meteorologists and various users group, Limited communication opportunities between countries, and Unavailability of advanced technologies. Slide 56 Challenges and Opportunities Climate Monitoring and Prediction Consultation with end users Improved delivery systems Training in the use of information Incorporating user feedback Slide 57 Challenges and Opportunities Climate Monitoring and Prediction Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts Increased reliability Spatial scale Temporal scale Slide 58 PLANNED ACTIVITIES The DMC will continue to build on the successes it made in climate analysis and prediction, and strive to improve areas of its weakness. It will empower regional experts involved in climate diagnosis and prediction through on-the-job training, workshops and secondment of these experts to advanced climate centres overseas. This will result in, among other things: research focused on long-lead seasonal climate predictability in order to systematically produce useful forecasts; and effective use of these experimental forecasts by scientists from participating countries in order to meet their particular social and economic needs. Slide 59 SUMMARY Climate extremes have profound impacts in SADC DMC has contributed to the understanding of these extreme variations in SADC through consistent climate monitoring. DMC generates and disseminates important prediction products. These products are important in providing early warning for mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in weather and climate. There are still challenges: inadequate resources. DMC have contributed to building capacity in SADC for climate prediction and applications through Climate outlook Forums. Slide 60 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!