drought monitoring and early warning systems: brazilian...

Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems:

Brazilian Experience

Eduardo Martins, FUNCEME, Ceará (Brazil)

May, 2019

Monitores de sequías: experiencias de Brasil y México

Enhancing the Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness

Portraits of a multiyear drought: 2012 – 2017

Context

Deviation Feb-Apr/2019

Drought Management in Brazil: The Search for n New Paradigm

Monitoring and forecasting/early warning

Vulnerability/resiliency and impact assessment

Mitigation and response planning and measures

Some Initial Comments on Drought Preparedness Contingency Plans – What is it about?

NORMAL OR WET CONDITIONS

Constant Monitoringand Forecast;

Implement actions oflong-term.

Indicators have associated triggers that link the drought categories of themonitoring system and actions in the specific vulnerable sectors. These arepredefined in drought contingency plans.

DROUGHT ONSET

Implement mitigationactions of short-term.

EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS

Implementemergency responseactions.

NORMAL OR WET CONDITIONS

Re-emphasizemonitoring andforecasting;

Re-implement long-term structuralactivities.

Evolution of a Drought and the elements of a Proactive Management for

Droughts, associated to a Preparedness Plan for Droughts

• Climate Change Study in Northeast. 2010-12

▪ Trip to “Sertões”, Ceará

CGEE, FUNCEME, ANA, MI & WB.

2010-2012

February 2013

September 2013

▪ Study Tour to the West Coast of USA.MI, MMA, MCid, ANA, States of Ceará

& Pernambuco

▪ Harvard University

The Drought Monitor – The Timeline

▪ Preliminary Results on Cases of Studies: USA,

Australia, Mexico and

Spain

March 2013

• Institutional Diagnostic: (33 institutions in Northeast were interviewed).

• Preliminary results were presented in the Drought Seminar, Impacts and Responses (organized by FUNCEME)

▪ 1st Seminar on Drought Policy

(organized by the MI and support

of the World Bank. Experiences

from USA, Mexico and Spain were

presented). Dec 02-03rd.

▪ WMO/MI/FUNCEME. Dec 04-06th,

• Beginning of the IT Diagnostic

October 2013

December 2013

January 2014

▪ 1st Regional Workshop (CE): Presentation of the TA and

discussion about the vision

for the Drought Monitor.

7 States, 70 participants (8

federal institutions), NDMC

& CONAGUA


▪ Training on the

methodology for the

Monitor

7 States, 23 participants

(2 federal institutions)

and NDMC

▪ 2nd Regional Workshop (PE): Discussions of institutional

and operational

arrangements

8 States, 65 participants (8

federal institutions)

• Technical Exchange Brazil – USA & Mexico

4 Brazilian ResearchersMarch 2014

May 2014

August 2014

September 2014▪ Cooperation Agreement for the

Monitor: MI-ANA-FUNCEME


August 2014

November 2014

▪ Experimental Phase of the Monitor since August

January to April 2015

▪ Documenting the Drought Monitor

▪ Launching the Drought MonitorEnd of 2014 / Beginning of 2015


▪ Consolidation of the process and

transference of the tools

▪ 3rd Regional Workshop (BA):

Presentation of the advances in the

Drought Monitor and preliminary

version of the Drought Contingency

Plans.

May 2015 – February 2017

February 2017

▪ Drought Monitor is operational

FUNCEME Central Institution with

support of World Bank Full involvement of the States

October – December 2018

▪ Several meetings were organized in

order to improve the validation

process. Potential validators were

identified.

September 2017 - Now


▪ Expansion of the Monitor to Minas Gerais

State – Training the MG Team.

▪ ANA assumes its role as central Institutional: Start of reviewing the

whole process with participation of

the states in order to move forward.

TED ANA/UFC/FUNCEME

December 2018▪ Initial talks with Espirito Santos’

State in order to expand the Drought Monitor conquering

Southeast of Brazil.


The Drought Monitor – The Institutional Network

Climate

Research/Operational

Institutions

Water Management &

Research institutions

Agricultural Research &

Policy institutions

Stakeholders & Users

FUNCEMEC

SDA/EMATERCEAg

SRH/COGERHW

Farmers, Civil Defense, …S

The Drought Monitor

Monitoring and forecasting/early warning

The Drought Monitor – The Data Integration Effort

Rain gauges Weather StationsAutomatic

Weather StationsReservoir Levels

Information Available to Everyone …

Indicators

SPI : Standardized Precipitation Index

SPEI : The Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index

SRI : Standardized Runoff Index

SDSI : Standardized Dry Spell Index

SWSI : Standardized Wet Spell Index

SWSI : Standardized Water Supply Index

Short Term (3/4 months)

Long Term (12 months)

CENTRAL INSTITUTIONAuthor

Coordinator

VALIDATION

DRAFT n

NEW AUTHOR

EVALUATION

DATA INPUT

Data Formatting

Indicators’ computation

Analysis

Send to Validators

Explain Draft

Validation Form

Support Products

Adjustments

still needed?

Occurs n times, until the final map isobtained (constrained to the deadline)

FINAL MAP/NARRATIVE

NARRATIVE

Bla

Bla

Bla

Bla

WEB PAGEDRAFT 1

Author Author

QGIS PROJECT

Authors’ Meeting

OK!

The Drought Monitor: Operational Framework

The Last Map – Oh MG!

Abril/2019

The Monitor Web Sitehttp://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/

Final Remarks – Drought Monitor

Start simple, learn as you do the process and improve the process.

The Drought Monitor Concept build upon collaboration among institutions/states/countries.

Your Drought Monitor will be different than any other.

Using the information @regional scale

National Civil Defense – Water Truck Program

If a municipality has any % of its área in D1 or above

drought conditions (Moderate to Exceptional Drougth),

the municipality is automatically included into the

programme.

Otherwise, supplementary information should be

provided by the municipalities in order to be incuded into

the programme.

Using the information @regional scale

Ministry of Agriculture

Harvest Insurance Public Program

In discussion a similar use of the Drought Monitor for the

harverst insurance program.

Using the information @Basin scale

Using the information @Basin scale

Drought diagnosis using “downstreamness” concept:

1. Detecting meteorological and hydrological drought

2. Meteorological and hydrological drought compared (Step 1)

3. Effect of the reservoir network on hydrological drought (Step 2)

P. R. van Oel, E.S.P.R. Martins, A.C. Costa, Niko Wanders & Henny A. J. van

Lanen (2018) Diagnosing drought using the downstreamness concept: the effect

of reservoir networks on drought evolution, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63:7,979-990, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2018.1470632

Other Drought Monitoring Activities

1. Data integration effort from current meteorological and hydrological observation networks

(state and federal) throughout the Northeast Region.

2. Collaboration with national and international institutions in order to use modeling- and

satellite-based indicators to monitor drought and its impacts. (ICHARM, GFZ, Potsdam

University, Bonn University)

3. Use of hydrological semi-distributed models to derive hydrological drought indicators

throughout the region (ongoing activity).

4. Introduction of new drought indices that are not currently used, but are currently on test, in

order to be included as part of a Drought Information System (ongoing activity).

5. Expand the network of observers to gather impact information from the water and

agriculture sectors (ongoing activity).

Other Drought Monitoring/ForecastingActivities in Collaboration

“Seca a Vista!” Agricultural Drougth Monitoring

and Forecasting

Other Drought Monitoring/ForecastingActivities in Collaboration

GRACE-based Drought Indicators

Drought Prediction and Early Warnings

1. SSTs forecast system from IRI, now @FUNCEME July/2017.

2. Scenario building based on current conditions

3. Climate forecast system combining different global/regional models:

Global: ECHAM 4.6 (@FUNCEME), NMME, CPTEC

Brazil: INMET Statistical Model

Regional Models: RSM97/2008, RAMS

4. Forecasting Drought Indicators: SPI, SPEI, SRunnoff, SDSI (Dry Spell)

5. Collaboration with national and international institutions in order to use modeling- andsatellite-based indicators to forecast drought and its impacts. (ICHARM, GFZ, PotsdamUniversity, Bonn University)

6. Other Forecasting Products: Inflows to the main reservoirs of the region Effective use in theWater Allocation of 12 basins.

Drought Forecast – Improvements

Superensemble1. CPTEC/INMET/FUNCEME-ECHAM4.62. NMME+ECHAM4.6

FMA

SSTs Forecasting System IRI FUNCEME

Climate Indexes x Rainfed Agr. / Streamflow

WET AND DRYSPELL INDEXES:

CLIMATE-RELATED INDEXES BASED ON DAILY PRECIPITATION;

FORECASTING BY USING DOWNSCALING REGIONAL CLIMATE

MODELING FORCED BY PERSISTED SST ANOMALIES;

SPI and SPEI - Forecast

SPI FORECAST:

ECHAM4.6 GLOBAL MODEL

PERSISTED SST

1, 3, 4 AND 6 MONTHS

Drought Indicators Forecasts:

SPI-3/4 Months

SPEI-3/4 Months

S2S: Dry/wet spells indicators

Onset/end Season

DOWNSCALING

Drought Monitor & Trends – Improvements

Streamflow forecasts(Since 2005) Yield Forecasts

Drought Impacts and Risk Assessment

Initial talks on implementing vulnerability assessment studies in order

to determine who and what is at risk and why.

State network of observers to gather and report information about

ongoing impacts of droughts.

Mitigation and Response

Develop system- and sector-specific contigency plans - e.g. each water

supply system will have its contigency plan, establishing what

mitigation actions should be undertaken according with the triggers

and the decision calendar related to that particular system.

Using the information @Hydrosystem scale

Hydrosystem

Definition of risk levels taken by the decision maker.

Definition of target volumes and levels of the reservoir.

Urban Supply System

Associated with the hydrosystem, but the focus is the adaptation of thepopulation to drought events.


Analysis of the legal and institutional context: (1) Identification of the

interested stakeholders and institutions; and (2) analysis of current

management tools.

Determination of risk tolerance level and the number of drought phases: This should initially obtained in an ad hoc fashion and later

revised after an evaluation of the impacts of these decisions.

Definition of a drought monitoring system: Definition of the drought

indices.

Development of simulation and optimization models to analyze drought preparedness and/or response actions: (1) Supply and

demand estimates; and (2) water supply guarantees and risks.

Definition of the various alternatives for each stage of the drought or drought category: (1) Water allocation scenarios; and (2)

complementary water sources (including wastewater reuse and

desalination, as well as rainfall).

Decision making: (1) Definition of the triggers (target levels of the

reservoir or reservoirs); and (2) definition of use restrictions (water

supply) for each stage of the drought.

PERNAMBUCO:

Jucazinho Water Supply System

- #Municipalities: 15

- Population: 820.000 people

- Actual capacity: 1.250 l/s

- Pipeline system: 206 Km

- Future capacity: 1.800 l/s


PERNAMBUCO:

Jucazinho Water Supply System

- #Municipalities: 15

- Population: 820.000 people

- Actual capacity: 1.250 l/s

- Pipeline system: 206 Km

- Future capacity: 1.800 l/s

Final Remarks - Use of Information

Sector Specific (Agriculture, Water Reseources, …).

If the focus is a Managed System, the plan is also specific to

that system (Urban Supply, Reservoir System, …).

Starting the process: Choose the right cases and players to

demonstrate the value of the plans.

Build strategy with those already involved.

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