drought and coastal ecosystems state of knowledge report
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Tools and Research to Improve the Characterization of Drought and Understanding of Impacts on Water and Ecological Resources Ashley Brosius, Climate Outreach Specialist Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments, University of South Carolina. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Results Artificial Neural Network models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause these salinity events. Model results from Pawleys Island stream gage (USGS station 02110125), near a municipal freshwater intake, indicate that 1 foot (30 cm) of SLR would double the number of days the municipal intake is unavailable to 400 days and a 2-ft rise increases the unavailability to nearly 2 years (700 days). (Conrads et al. 2010). Changes in precipitation patterns due to changes in the climate have the potential of decreasing streamflow to the coast. Salinity intrusion in coastal rivers during low streamflow periods and a decrease in streamflow combined with a sea-level rise could increase the duration of salinity intrusion along the coast. A 1-ft sea-level rise combined with a 25-percent decrease in historical streamflow would increase the days the intake is unavailable to over 700 days. Water-resource managers can use this information to plan mitigation efforts to adapt to potential effects from climate change.
The project team developed a new, web-based Decision Support System (DSS) PRISM2 (Pee Dee River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Salinity Intrusion Model) for stakeholder and government agency use in evaluating potential changes in the hydrologic system of the Pee Dee River under different climatic regimes. In December 2011 the CISA team conducted a workshop in Georgetown, SC, with resource managers, water/utility managers, and applied researchers to provide information about the PRISM2 DSS and to gather feedback about the potential impacts of sea level rise and salinity intrusion on existing ecological and infrastructure systems and about the model’s applicability for decision making. Insights from the workshop will be used to enhance the DSS.
ReferenceConrads, P. et al. 2010. Estimating Salinity Intrusion Effects Due to Climate Change Along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast. In: Proceedings Paper for the 4th Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference. June 27- July 1, Las Vegas, Nevada..