driving smart railway solutions trends... · 2020. 12. 16. · 2020 digest, based on data from rail...
TRANSCRIPT
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DRIVING SMART RAILWAY SOLUTIONS
KEY TRENDS
EKATERINA KOZYREVA
PRESIDENT, IEC INTERNATIONAL
UNESCAP CAPACITY BUILDING WEBINAR | SMART ROAD AND RAIL SOLUTIONS | 1 DECEMBER 2020
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CONTENTS
RAIL PRIORITIES OF TARN MEMBER COUNTRIES
IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC
SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS
STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR TARN
FUTURE SHIFTS IN RAILWAY POLICIES AND TRENDS
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 2
MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK
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1. MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK IN
2016-2020*
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 3
• North – South first agreements on
freight transit
New routes
New services
New alliances
New technologies
New initiatives
New hubs
• First connections Europe -
Southeastern Asia (Viet Nam)
• Baku – Tbilisi – Kars opening
• TITR enhancement with regular
feeder lines
• Opening of Marmaray tunnel.
• Routes via Kaliningrad
• Introduction of postal trains
1 for Southeastern Asia 1 for North – South 7 for EU - China
• Automation: coupling, driving, rail motorways
UTLC ERA, RZD Logistics – statistically key players in alliances**
• Integration and enhancement • Enhanced digitalization and digital ecosystems • Marketing initiatives (One million club)
• KTI rail corridor
**by number of announced agreements
• Piggyback transportation
• More than 35 new international connections in 2016-2020
• Federal programme for transport hubs
development in the Russian Federation
• Programme for development of major
logistics centres in China
*not considering specific changes due to COVID-19
• Tests of blockchain technologies for freight
• Transit of sanctioned goods with e-seal technologies
• Enhancement of border crossing
infrastructure and hubs in Kazakhstan
• Almost 3 times increase in transit volumes (2019 to
2016)
• Wide use of e-seals
• Transportation of fresh foodstuffs under
specific temperature conditions• Transportation of luxury cars
• Active developments in Western Asia
(notably Turkey)
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1. MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK.
FLOWS
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 4
RAIL FREIGHT FLOWS IN 2019:
MAP PREPARED BY IEC FOR CCTT
“TRANS—EURASIAN CORRIDORS”
2020 DIGEST, BASED ON DATA FROM
RAIL OPERATORS.
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1. MAJOR CHANGES IN RAIL TRANSPORTATION ALONG TRANS-ASIAN RAILWAY NETWORK.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 5
MAP TAKEN FROM UIC AND IEC STUDY
“EURASIAN CORRIDORS: DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL”, 2020.
THE MAP IS SCHEMATIC AND DOES NOT
INTEND TO REPRESENT EXACT
COUNTRY BORDERS.
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2. RAIL PRIORITIES OF TARN MEMBER COUNTRIES
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 6
AZERBAIJAN
BANGLADESH
CAMBODIA
CHINA
I.R. IRAN
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
LAO PDR
MALAYSIA
MONGOLIA
MYANMAR
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
TAJIKISTAN
TURKEY
TURKMENISTAN
VIET NAM
UZBEKISTAN
THAILAND
based on the analysis of official national strategic documents, the list of priorities
may not be exhaustive
RAIL NETWORK DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL LINKS
SHIFT TO RAIL SUPPORT
SUSTAINABILITY
ADVANCED DIGITALIZATION
AND AUTOMATION
EXISTING STRATEGIES
DOCUMENTS DO NOT CONSIDER
COVID-19 CHALLENGES AND
POST-PANDEMIC REALITIES.
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2. RAIL PRIORITIES OF TARN MEMBER COUNTRIES
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 7
RAILWAY NETWORK DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL RAIL LINKS
SHIFT TO RAIL OFFICIAL INITIATIVES
SUSTAINABILITY
ADVANCED DIGITALIZATION
AND AUTOMATION
establishment of traffic control system with basic digitalizationbasic interoperability and smart solutions for border crossingsuse of funding tools aimed primarily at financing construction and network upgradeuse of transportation modelling to understand the necessity for further developments
e-interoperabilitylegislative work to assure internal harmonization of solutionsuse of smart form of railway-customs interfacesuse of freight flows modelling to adjust the capacities of border infrastructure
all spectrum of smart railway solutions can be used as a part of modal shift policy
intensive digitalization, automation, e-interoperabilitytechnologies for predictive maintenancesmart technologies for international carriage (for all issues from maintenance tooperations)use of new types of financing tools (like bonds, venture investment funds, etc.).
artificial intelligence and machine learningdata integration and data-as-an-asset approachdata sharing and use of new distributed data technologies like blockchain
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES RELEVANT SMART SOLUTIONS
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3. STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR TARN
8
ASEAN
EAEU
ECO
UN CRD
UN ESCAP
ADB
AIIB
ISDB
THE WORLD BANK
OTIF
CCTT
OSJD
UIC
Subregional intergovernmental
Subregional intergovernmental
Subregional intergovernmental
Multilateral intergovernmental
Multilateral intergovernmental
Development bank
Development bank
Development bank
Development bank
Rail intergovernmental
Multilateral non-governmental
Rail intergovernmental
Rail non-governmental
CONNECTIVITY BORDER CROSSING INTEROPERABILITY SUSTAINABILITY DIGITALIZATION FINANCING
Higher importance Lower importance Indirect financing (research and assistance) Direct financing
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3. STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR TARN.
EAEU STRATEGIS ON DIGITAL TRANSPORT CORRIDORS
EAEU is working on a digital ecosystem for all transportation modes, based not on paper documents flows,
but on e-data flows only, where data are accessible for all participants, but are verified and cannot be changed without
consequences.
all participants can be
informed on the freight
flows in advance and during
transportation process
accessible verified information
which would be enough to
assure faster payments between
the participants of transportation
process
use of e-data instead of paper documents
or scanned documents (=>no need to
unify documentary forms = no need to
have separate customs and transportation
documents)
easier integration for
different countries, as no
language problem is
applicable for data
1 2 3 4The system is intended to
link authorities, participants
of transportation process,
public institutions and
customers.
It should also have
integrations with external
similar systems
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4. FUTURE SHIFTS IN RAILWAY POLICIES AND TRENDS
Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 10
RAILWAYS AS A KEY ELEMENT OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIES
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY AS A RESOURCE
ACTIVE SHIFT TO RAIL SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES NEW FINANCING TOOLS DATA-AS-AN-ASSET
MULTIMODALITYPHYSICAL RELIABILITY NON-PHYSICAL RELIABILITY CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
trends
trends
railway
policies
(Europe
and
Asia)*
TWO MAIN PILLARS FOR THE POLICIES AND TRENDS OF RAIL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE UPCOMING YEARS.
THESE POLICIES AND TRENDS PRIMARILY DEFINE THE VARIETY OF APPLIED SMART SOLUTIONS.
* based on the analysis of (1) national and international railway strategies, (2) initiatives of international organizations;
derived from (a) quarterly sectoral media overview (~100-150 news per quarter), (b) UIC study “Eurasian corridors:
development potential, (c) CCTT TSR Annual Digest 2020
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CHALLENGES OPPORTUNITIES
Unlike for passenger transportation, railway freight connectivity was
not hit by COVID-19 pandemic.
Index of topological connectivity (α-index) changed from 0.89 to 0.82
(while for passenger transportation to 0.60).
Railway connectivity proved to be an important factor for sustainability
of international economic links along TAR.
5. IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON RAILWAY TRENDS. CONNECTIVITY
priorities and green lanes for
transit freight trains introduced by
many countries
high level of uncertainty regarding
further restrictions, decreasing
planning period for freight shippers
and all other stakeholders
asynchronous actions of different
countries and significant differences
in admission rules from country to
country
additional health checks for
personnel accompanying the cargo
through the border crossings (if any
necessary)
lower first and last miles connectivity
(usually assured by trucks)
railway border crossings having
less restrictions than road border
crossings, as in Asian countries
(unlike in Europe) normally the
locomotive team changes at the
borders together with the
locomotives
railways prove to be the most
sustainable mode to assure
international and national
connectivity thanks to faster (than
the sea), cheaper (that the air),
and less staff requiring (than the
trucks) transportation
11Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020
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5. IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON RAILWAY TRENDS. FLOWS
123%
73%64%
126%131%
217%
254%
135%
131%
105% 110%
182%
213%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4
Euro-Asian rail freight transit volumes, TEUseconomic crisis + COVID-19 crisis
Euro-Asian rail freight transit volumes, TEUseconomic crisis
Annual growth, yoyeconomic crisis + COVID-19 crisis
Annual growth, yoyeconomic crisis
SHORT-TERM
Liquidation of undershipment
Growth of demand on rail services
Asynchrony of services
MID-TERMRestoration of supply chains
Construction of new supply chains
Demand for fast, cheap and reliable transport
LONG-TERMPossible increase of rail share (up to 5% in
transit) under smaller volumes (than
previously predicted).
East – West – East disbalance due to
difference of traded commodities.Volumes modelled with TMF® software based on JP Morgan and ING forecasts as of April 1, 2020.
Figures show the dynamics and should not be considered as traffic forecasts.
IMPACT OF CRISIS ON THE DYNAMICS OF EURO-ASIAN RAIL FREIGHT TRANSIT
12Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020
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6. SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS. DECISION-MAKING
Special thanks for infographic templates to www.presentationgo.com
345 345
528
247
84
632
2018 2030
Decrease in total transportation priceBorder crossing procedures optimization (all stations)Railing acceleration (Trans-Siberian case)Trade growth (optimistic scenario)2018 Base
e-in
tero
per
abili
ty
inte
rop
erab
ility
35%
42%
THE BEST RAIL CASE
(OPTIMAL) OPTIONS
x 5.3
INPUT OF VARIOUS FACTORS IN EURO-ASIAN RAIL FREIGHT TRAFFIC 2030,
OPTIMAL CASE FORECAST*
*DATA FROM UIC AND IEC STUDY “EURASIAN CORRIDORS: DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL”, 2020.
1. FACTORS NOT RELATED TO TRADE MAY HAVE
A LARGER IMPACT ON INLAND TRANSPORTATION
Reliability
Interoperability
Resilience
2. TRADE DYNAMICS STILL DEFINES HOW (AND
WHETHER) OTHER FACTORS WILL WORK
Transport analysis
based on economic one
Analysis by commodities
Test of solutions (services)
directions of immediate
investments
(focus on digital solutions)
directions of research and
applied studies
(focus on modelling)
directions of cooperation
(focus on connectivity as a
resource for sustainable
economy)
3. COORDINATED ACTIONS AT PRESENT WILL
DEFINE THE FUTURE OF EURO-ASIAN RAILWAYS
Synchronous actions
Rail marketing initiatives
Joint strategies
13Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020
More information on
modelling tool can be
found here
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Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 14
6. SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS.
DECISION-MAKING
IN THE PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY, COMBINED ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION MODELING
(TRANSPORTATION DATA + VARIABLE MACROECONOMIC MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS) CAN BE RECOMMENDED
AS A SMART DECISION-MAKING SOLUTIONS.
WHY?o to define top and bottom of capacity and financial results
o to test various options
o to prioritize limited investments
o to choose best options for national and regional economies based on effects from rail
projects
WHAT IS NECESSARY TO SET UP A MODEL?o graph of transportation network (GIS is preferrable) with basic features like transportation speed;
o historic trade data;
o trade forecast (may be automated)
o historic data for the transportation network: existing and previously existing flows, allocation by routes
o transportation tariffs and prices (market prices)
IN ADDITION, MODELLING IS A SOLUTIONo TO IMPROVE COLLECTION OF STATISTICS
o TO AUTOMATE DATA COLLECTION ON A
STATE LEVEL
o TO DECREASE SUBJECTIVE IMPACT ON
RESULTS
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Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 15
6. SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS. DECISION-MAKING
1. Infrastructure
• Acceleration of the Trans-Siberian (7 days)
2. Technologies and data transfer
3. Routes
• Construction of Rail Baltica 1435mm line
• Upgrade of border-crossing infrastructure in Poland
• Reach of capacity limits at Polish border-crossings
• Development of Baltic ports with launches
of new feeder lines
• Launch of the Trans-Korean Rail (with link to
the Trans-Siberian)
• Regular feeders from Japan and the Republic
of Korea
• New China – Russian Far East border-
crossing and route (Primorye)
• Acceleration of border-crossings and changes in
procedures of gauge changes
• 100% use of CIM / SMGS consignment
• E-data exchange between customs and railways;
unified data transfer principles between railways
4. Economic changes
• Decrease of rail subsidies in China.
• Price reduction outside China.
+247
+6
No No
No
+11
-60
+19
+51
+74
-442
+632*
* with acceleration
Reach of capacity
limits
Major negative factors for
rail transit
Major positive factors for
rail transitInhibiting factors
changes in allocation
of rail freight flows by
routes
Modelled with TMF software.
UIC and IEC study “Eurasian corridors: development potential”
ECONOMIC+TRANSPORTATION MODELLING ALLOWS DEFINING
KEY IMPACTING FACTORS AND THEIR LINKS AND SETTING UP
STRATEGIC AND INVESTMENT PRIORITIES.
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Ekaterina Kozyreva | Key trends driving smart railway solutions | UNESCAP Capacity Building Webinar | 1 December 2020 16
6. SMART SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE OF RAILWAYS. DECISION-MAKING
A GREAT ADVANTAGE OF COMBINED ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION MODELLING IS CONSIDERATION OF THE IMPACT OF RAIL
ENHANCEMENTS AND SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS (INFRASTRUCTURAL, TECHNOLOGICAL, OPERATIONAL) ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE OF COUNTRIES AND REGIONS.
Western
Europe
Central and
Eastern Europe
China
Northern
Europe
Southern
Europe
Central
Asia
South-
Eastern Asia
OthersRepublic
of Korea
+24,4
EXAMPLE: EUROPEAN AND ASIAN EXPORTS GROWTH BY REGIONS THANKS TO RAIL ENHANCEMENTS IN TRANSIT ONLY, M TONS 833
Total in 2030: 808
no-change, baseline economic scenario
best rail case
Modelled with TMF™ software.
UIC and IEC study “Eurasian
corridors: development
potential”
Best rail case: baseline macroeconomic scenario, Chinese subsidies present, acceleration of the Trans-Siberian Railway to 7 days,
acceleration of all border crossing procedures to 3 hrs for all crossings, 100% use of CIM/SMGS consignment, price reduction by
20%.
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INTERMODALITY AND
CUSTOMER RELATIONS
Electronic sales
Single window
Tracking applications
MAINTENANCE, SAFETY, SECURITYPredictive maintenance
On the go data on cargo state (containers)
Drones
Energy-efficient LED systems
Energy recuperation and resource reuse
ROLLING STOCKAutomation of train driving
Fuel cells and hydrogen trains
Battery trains
Hybrid trains
TRAFFIC OPERATIONS
Automation of terminals
Automated traffic management systems
Estimated time of arrival
Interoperability
E-interoperability
BORDER CROSSINGBogies change at one side
Combined (joint) control procedures
E-data interchange between railways and border agencies
E-seals with customs information
Non-intrusive inspections
Non-stop border crossing
Standard time targets
Simultaneous scheduled transshipment
Use of combined rail consignment as customs documents
Data
integration
Digital
ecosystems
AI and machine
learning
Smart sensors
Blockchain
Satellite data
GIS
Transportation
modeling
MULTI-USE TOOLS AND TECHNOLOGIES DECISION-MAKING TOOLS APPLICABILITY TYPE OF SOLUTIONS
RECOMMENDED FOR USE DURING COVID-19
PANDEMIC AND AT RECOVERY PHASENational
International
International
and national
Technological
Institutional
Mixed
SOLUTIONS AIMED AT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
6. SMART SOLUTIONS (CHART)
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Special thanks for infographic templates to www.presentationgo.com
SCAN FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON MODELLING
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION!
EKATERINA KOZYREVA
PRESIDENT, IEC INTERNATIONAL