dr.$fa’h$birol$ ieachief$economist$...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2013
Dr. Fa'h BIROL IEA Chief Economist
New York, 20 June 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
Context
n Climate change is slipping down the policy agenda, even as the scien'fic evidence con'nues to accumulate
n Energy sector accounts for two-‐thirds of greenhouse gas emissions
n Mixed news on energy trends
Ø Price dynamics between gas and coal support emissions reduc5ons in some regions, but impede them in others
Ø Renewables are on the rise, but investment slowed in 2012
Ø Efficiency policies are gaining momentum in many countries
Ø Nuclear is facing challenges and CCS s5ll remains distant
© OECD/IEA 2013
CO2 emissions at record high in 2012
Change in energy-‐related CO2 emissions, 2012
CO2 emissions grew by 1.4% to reach 31.6 Gt in 2012, but trends vary by country
-‐300
-‐200
-‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
World China Japan European Union
United States
Mt CO2
Middle East
India
© OECD/IEA 2013
700
750
800
850
900
2003 2006 2009 2012
gCO2 / k
Wh
China
400
450
500
550
600
2003 2006 2009 2012
gCO2 / k
Wh
United States
The two largest emiRers make encouraging steps toward decarbonisa'on…
CO2 emissions per unit of electricity genera'on
In 2012, total CO2 emissions in the US were back at the level of the mid-‐1990s, while total CO2 emissions growth in China was one of the lowest in the last decade
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…but the world is s'll moving in the wrong direc'on
Global energy-‐related CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions trends point to a long-‐term temperature increase of up to 5.3 °C
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2012
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32 Gt
DissoluJon of the Soviet Union
End of World War II
1st oil price shock
Global economic downturn
2nd oil price shock
Great depression
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four measures to keep the 2 °C target alive
n Na'onal efforts in this decade need to buy 'me for an interna'onal agreement, expected to come into force in 2020
n Measures to 2020 should meet key criteria:
Ø No harm to countries’ economic growth
Ø Significant near-‐term emissions reduc5ons
Ø Reliance only on exis5ng technologies and proven policies
Ø Significant na5onal benefits other than climate change mi5ga5on
n Our 4-‐for-‐2 °C Scenario proposes four measures that meet these criteria
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020
Emissions savings in the 4-‐for-‐2 °C Scenario, 2020
Four measures can stop the growth in emissions by 2020 at no net economic cost, reducing emissions by 3.1 Gt, 80% of the savings required for a 2 °C path
49%
21%
18%
12% Implement selected energy efficiency
policies
Limit use of inefficient coal power plants
Reduce methane releases from upstream
oil and gas
ParJal removal of fossil-‐fuel subsidies
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 1: Improve energy efficiency
Emissions savings in the 4-‐for-‐2 °C Scenario, 2020
Energy efficiency reduces emissions by 1.5 Gt, led by minimum energy performance standards – addiQonal investment is more than offset by fuel bill savings
20% 40%
Buildings
Industry
Transport
80% 100%
Industrial motors
60%
Hea'ng & cooling Appliances & ligh'ng
Road
Share of efficiency savings
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 2: Limit the use of inefficient coal power plants
Change in electricity demand & coal-‐fired electricity genera'on from the least-‐efficient plants, 2020
Energy efficiency and reducing the role of the least-‐efficient coal power plants have important co-‐benefits for local air polluQon
-‐1 000
-‐ 800
-‐ 600
-‐ 400
-‐ 200
United States
European Union China India
Lower electricity demand
Lower electricity generaJon from least-‐ efficient coal plants
TWh 0
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 3: Reduce methane releases into the atmosphere
Methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas industry, 2020
In 2010, global methane releases were 1.1 Gt CO2-‐eq; halving the level in 2020 adds around 0.5% to cumulaQve upstream investment
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
United States
Other OECD
Middle East
Russia Africa Other Non-‐OECD
ReducJon in 4-‐for-‐2 °C Scenario
Mt CO2-‐eq
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 4: Par'al removal of fossil-‐fuel subsidies
Savings in the 4-‐for-‐2 °C Scenario: 360 Mt
Fossil-‐fuel subsidies in 2011 were equivalent to an incenQve of $110 per tonne of CO2
Middle East 54%
Africa 15%
Russia
Other 14%
7% La'n
America 11%
© OECD/IEA 2013
The energy sector needs to adapt to climate change
The energy sector needs to increase its resilience to the physical impacts of climate change
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
o C
o C
o C
o C
o C o C
o C
o C o C o C
Increase of droughts and/or heat waves
Power plant cooling impacted
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Change in tropical cyclones and storms
Typical cyclones and track direc'ons
The energy sector needs to adapt to climate change
The energy sector needs to increase its resilience to the physical impacts of climate change
Exposed oil and gas infrastructure
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
© OECD/IEA 2013
Some fossil-‐fuel reserves may remain underground
Poten'al CO2 emissions from proven fossil-‐fuel reserves to 2050
On today’s trends, half of the proven fossil-‐fuel reserves would be leX undeveloped to 2050 – stronger climate acQon would increase the share
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
Coal Oil Gas
If all proven reserves were used
New Policies Scenario
Gt
450 Scenario
AddiJonal emissions in New Policies Scenario
– stronger climate acQon would increase the share
© OECD/IEA 2013
A diverse poreolio maRers in the power sector
Net revenues for new power plants by scenario, 2012-‐2035
Under a 2 °C path, total net revenues for new power plants are $3 trillion higher –
2
4
6
8
Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
Trillion dollars (2011)
CCS fiaed
CCS is an effecQve protecQon strategy for fossil fuel assets
© OECD/IEA 2013
Key messages
n Despite encouraging steps in some countries, global emissions keep rising and the scien'fic evidence of climate change increases
n Early na'onal ac'on is required while nego'a'ng towards a global deal in Paris in 2015 that then comes into force by 2020
n Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020 and keep the 2°C target alive, without harming economic growth
n There is a need for parallel ac'on to deploy cri'cal low-‐carbon technologies at scale aher 2020, including CCS
n The energy sector must adapt to climate change, both in the resilience of its exis'ng assets and in future investment decisions
© OECD/IEA 2013
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/energyclimatemap