drcog who is tod in metro denver? survey of businesses ... g - economic conditions at time of...

DRCOG Who is TOD in Metro Denver? Survey of Businesses near Rail-Transit Stations July 2009

Report of Results Page i

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Acknowledgments Preparation of this report has been financed in part through grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration and Federal Highway Administration.

Special thanks to public- and private-sector financial contributors:

Arapahoe County

City of Arvada

City of Boulder

City of Centennial

City of Commerce City

City and County of Denver

City of Englewood

City of Lakewood

City of Louisville

Colorado Department of Local Affairs, Division of Housing

Regional Transportation District

Thornton Gateway Property, LLC

City of Thornton

City of Westminster

City of Wheat Ridge


Report of Results Page 271

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Appendix G: Economic Conditions at Time of Survey. This section outlines the economic conditions in Denver at the time of the business survey. These conditions may influence business decisions and commute behavior and are noted as context for current and, especially, future analyses.

Denver region economic condition summary through 2008/Q1 2009:

The nation, Colorado, and the Denver region are experiencing an economic downturn unprecedented in the past 70 years. The downturn has affected multiple aspects of the economy including employment, access to credit, migration into the state, and patterns of homeownership. As of the end of the first quarter 2009 the region’s non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stands at 8.0 percent. This is up from 7.71 percent a month ago, and has nearly doubled from its rate of 4.68 percent in March of 2008. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the region (excluding Clear Creek and Gilpin counties, for which data were not available) has lost 51,200 jobs since March 2008, the majority of which were lost in late 2008 and early 2009. Since the beginning of this year the region has lost 17,600 jobs, an average of just under 5,900 jobs per month. Although the rate of seasonally adjusted job loss declined between February and March of 2009, uncertainty about the local economy remains.

In times of uncertainty, it often helps to look to indicators and economic trends that suggest the future. Up though 2008 the region continued to gain population year over year, suggesting desirability for the region beyond economic conditions. The majority of the indicators below (S&P performance, consumer confidence, sales tax collections, etc,) have turned sharply down over the past year, however, there are some, such as housing, showing signs of better performance for the region against the nation. The Case & Shiller Home Price Index has the Denver region performing better than the 10 city composite. This is primarily due to Denver not experiencing the rapid housing price escalation that many other cities, particularly Las Vegas and Miami, experienced. In addition, residential building permits have declined to a point where new vacant inventory should have a chance to absorb into the market and find equilibrium with the resale market. Finally, foreclosures have decreased from the highpoint in 2007, but should be carefully monitored since the full effects of the unemployment rates have yet to be felt in the housing market. Overall the Denver region has appeared through indicators and anecdotal accounts to be faring better than the nation through this recession, but unemployment always lags recovery so weaknesses in the local market could still be felt beyond the traditional measure of positive economic growth.



Population

Source: Colorado State Demographer

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Source: Colorado State Demographer



Employment

Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment

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Unemployment


Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis




Personal Income/Consumption

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Market Performance

Source: Standard & Poors

Inflation

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics



Sentiments

Source: Conference Board

Cost of Living

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Source: Council for Community and Economic Research



Lending Rates

Source: Wall Street Journal Prime Rate/Freddie Mac

Housing

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Source: National Association of Home Builders



Source: Macro Markets – Case & Shiller Index

Source: National Association of Home Builders

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Source: US Census Bureau

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Source: Colorado Division of Housing



Source: Colorado Division of Housing

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Tax Coffers

Source: Colorado Division of Property Taxation

Source: Colorado Department of Revenue

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Oil & Gas

Source: Energy Information Administration

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Source: Energy Information Administration

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