dr melanie milo asean integration monitoring office asean secretariat
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Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN Integration and the ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS ). Dr Melanie Milo ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office ASEAN Secretariat High-Level Seminar on ACSS Strategic Plan 2016-2020 Bogor, Indonesia, 17-18 June 2014. The Mandate. Blueprints: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN Integration and the ASEAN
Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS)
Dr Melanie MiloASEAN Integration Monitoring Office
ASEAN Secretariat
High-Level Seminar on ACSS Strategic Plan 2016-2020Bogor, Indonesia, 17-18 June 2014
The Mandate
o Blueprints:o ASEC shall monitor and review the implementation
of the Blueprintso ASEC shall develop and adopt indicators and
systems to monitor and assess the progress of implementation
oMid-term review to be undertaken when necessary
ASEC Monitoring Tools
ASCC Scorecard
ASCC Blueprint
Implementation Monitoring
System
ASCC
AEC Scorecard
AISR
AEC
AIMR
AEC High-Impact indicators
ASRSectoral
level outcomes
Goal / Impact
Intermediate Outcome
Immediate Outcome
Output
Activity
Input
Compliance/ Implementation
Monitoring system
General Outcome
Result/ Out-
come -based
Monitoring
system
ACPMS
MDG
Cross Sector
AFIR
AISATSR
Who is monitoring the AEC Blueprint?o AIMO
o Input, Activity, and Output level: AEC Scorecardo Outcome and Impact: AEC High Impact Indicatorso Outcome: Monitoring and Surveillance Report
o ASEANstatso ERIA
o Studies to Further Improve the AEC Scorecard (2010, 2011, 2012, 2014)
o Focused on key areaso Questionnaires and surveys
Key Mandate of AIMO Establishment of ASEAN Integration Monitoring
Office (AIMO) in 2010 by the ASEAN Finance Ministers
Key mandate: strengthen regional economic surveillance and monitoring of the AEC to support the integration process
AIMO also serves as the policy support unit of the AEC Department within ASEC, with support from the Statistical Division (ASEANstats)
How does AIMO monitor the AEC?Monitor the compliance of AEC commitments through the AEC Scorecard
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
How does AIMO monitor the AEC? Development of monitoring reports and technical papers on various
initiatives under the AECMonitoring Reports Frequency/ Contents Data/ Indicators Used ASEAN Surveillance Report (ASR)
Annual; macro and financial developments; progress monitoring of AEC
Macro/surveillance data (real, monetary, fiscal, external, corporate sector data); AEC compliance scorecard; trade integration indicators
ASEAN Financial Integration Report (AFIR)
Annual; assessment of financial sector integration initiatives and measures
Financial integration indicators (quantity and price-based); simple gravity/econometric models; AEC compliance scorecard
ASEAN Investment Surveillance Report (AISR)
Annual; FDI developments and trends (global and regional); FDI policy issues and challenges
FDI indicators; AEC compliance scorecard; trade costs and business performance indicators
ASEAN Insurance Report (AIS)
Annual; insurance market developments and trends; policy issues
Insurance market indicators; macro data
ASEAN Integration Monitoring Report* (AIMR)
Annual; developments and trends on regional trade in goods, services, investment, and facilitation; assessment of policy issues
AEC high impact indicators; trade gravity/econometric models
ASEAN Trade in Services Report* (ATSR)
Annual; assessment of trade in services trends and developments; restrictiveness index; actual services regulations
ASEAN services trade database
*new reports prepared in collaboration with the World Bank; first AIMR to be completed in October 2012; first ATSR to be completed in 1Q 2013.
How does AIMO monitor the AEC? Development of monitoring tools/indicators and databases on regional
economic integration (e.g., AEC high-impact indicators)
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?o ASEAN Community Statistical System (ACSS)
o ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS) and ASEAN Briefo Reports the General Outcomes of ASEAN integration
initiatives, both under the AEC and ASCCo ACPMS 2007 and ASEAN Brief 2007 – first issueo ACPMS 2012 and ASEAN Brief 2012 – second
issue
o Started with the ASEAN Base Line Report (ABR) in 2005o Monitor the programme and initiatives under the
Vientiane Action Programme (VAP)o Measuring progress at programme levelo More than 300 indicators were introduced and
base lines were setupo Difficulty in synthesizing the overall integration
progress
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
o ACPMS 2007, first issueo Received support and commitment from the then
AHSOM (ACSS)o Published and disseminated to the public at the
ASEAN Summit in Singapore, 2009o Different focus
o Reports the general outcomes of integrationo Mostly outcome indicatorso 46 indicators: 21 AEC indicators and 26 ASCC indicators
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
o ACPMS 2012, second issueo Published and disseminated to the public through a
press release in 4 AMSs and ASECo Broader framework
o Enhanced the Frameworko 57 indicators: 29 AEC indicators and 28 ASCC indicators
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
Framework: Monitoring the AEC• Free flow of goods
• Free flow of services• Free flow of investment• Freer flow of capital• Free flow of skilled labour
Single market and production base
Competitive economic region
Equitable economic development
Integration into the global economy
Income convergence; Productivity convergence; Intra-ASEAN tourism; Price convergence; Intra-ASEAN trade in goods; Tariff reduction; Trade facilitation; Intra-ASEAN trade in services; Services trade liberalization; Intra-ASEAN FDI; Corporate tax rate; Convergence in financial returns; Convergence in skilled labour wages.
Global competitiveness index; Technological capacity (science and tech graduates, R&D expenditures, researchers per population, telephone subscribers); Science & technical publications; Innovation (patent and trademark applications); Technological capability (high tech exports)
ASEAN6:CLMV ratios of income per capita, intra-ASEAN trade, and intra-ASEAN FDI, Cost of business start up.
Extra-ASEAN trade in goods, extra-ASEAN inward FDI, extra-ASEAN tourism arrivals
Framework: Monitoring ASCC• Education• Human resource and
entrepreneurshipHuman development
• Poverty• Income distribution• Health
Social welfare and protection
Social justice and rights
Ensuring environmental sustainability
Building ASEAN Identity
Narrowing the development gap
HDI, education, literacy, school enrolment.
Poverty, income inequality, life expectancy, child mortality, underweight children, government expenditure on health, incidence of diseases .
Female employment-to-population ratio, youth employment-to-population ratio
Carbon emission, CFC consumption, transboundary haze, extent of protected area and forest cover, access to improved drinking and sanitary facility.
(not available)
ASEAN6:CLMV gaps in income distribution, life expectancy, child mortality, literacy, school enrolment, educational attainment.
Single Market and Production Base• AEC 5.3: Intra-industry trade
– As economies become more integrated the value of intra-industry trade index would increase
• AEC 7: Cost to export and import one container of goods (from World Bank’s Doing Business)– One important measure of facilitating the establishment of
a single market is through trade facilitation. Trade facilitation should lead to a lower cost of exporting and importing goods
Example of ACPMS Indicators and the
Rationale
Single Market and Production Base• AEC 12: Convergence in interest rates
– Real interest rates represent the real price of capital. As the capital markets of AMSs become more integrated, financial capital will flow more freely, and will be reflected in the tendency for the real interest rates to become more equal over time.
• AEC 14: Convergence in government bond yields– With more integrated capital markets, there will be a
tendency of a co-movement in AMSs government bond yields.
Example of ACPMS Indicators and the
Rationale
Way forward AIMO is working towards developing a unified outcomes-based
regional integration monitoring mechanism.– A brainstorming workshop was funded by the EU-ARISE on
improving the current regional monitoring integration system last week.
• Combination of international experts on regional integration monitoring mechanisms and the desk officers.
– Other ongoing TAs – Anchor the preparation of the ASEAN Integration Report;
accompanying volume to the ACPMS • Important to effectively communicate the AEC in the lead-up to
2015• A critical element of the AEC post-2015 agenda in order to
inform and guide the process towards deepening regional economic integration in the next 10 years (AEC 2025)
Data Requirements• With clear framework and rationale, data needs can
be specifically defined:– Choice of indices/targets/indicators– Quantitative measures have to be specified in terms of key
features, characteristics and data requirements• Data sources: not limited to primary sources (data
that are already available in ASEAN Secretariat and collected from NSOs); include secondary sources (from multilateral organisations such as the World Bank, IMF, UNCTAD, OECD)
THANK YOU