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REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
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TrendsMajor drivers of change in the 21st century
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• Demand of agricultural products is expected to rise by 50% from 2013 to 2050
• Demand shifts towards fruits, vegetables, meats and dairy products
• On historic trends, meeting demand growth should not be challenging …
Population growth, income growth and urbanization will push up and change food demand
World
High In
come C
ountries
Low & M
iddle Inco
me Countrie
s
SAS &
SSA
Latin Ameri
ca an
d the C
aribbean
0100200300400
Agricultural output growth and demand pro-jections
1961-2012 2012-2050
%
Will we be able to feed the world by 2050?
2013-20501961-2012
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• Yield growth is slowing down
• Competition for land and water resources is intensifying
• Yield growth is hampered by the degradation of natural resources, and spread of transboundary pests and diseases
• Food losses and waste claim a significant proportion of output
• Climate change affects food-insecure regions the most
Will we be able to feed the world by 2050?… but it will likely be challenging
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• Low- and middle income countries invest much less relative to the size of agricultural sector
• Also, most investment in R&D for agriculture is concentrated in high-income countries
Insufficient investment in agriculture Agricultural investment is rising, but insufficiently and mostly
concentrated in high income countries
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• Around 700 million people are extremely poor today
• Almost 800 million people are chronically hungry and 2 billion suffer micronutrient deficiencies
• Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario more than 600 million people would still be undernourished in 2030…
• ... while overweight and obesity would rise further
Poverty, inequality and food securityHunger and extreme poverty declined globally since the 1990s, but…
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• In the coming decades, 200 million jobs will need to be created for young people in sub-Saharan Africa
• Agriculture may still have an important role to play in new job creation
• … and many more along the food chain and through strengthened rural-urban linkages
Employment challenges Agricultural employment shares are declining.
Where will be the jobs for hundreds of millions of youth?
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• Large scale input markets and distribution systems are more concentrated
• Food chains are getting longer:- larger ecological footprint- concerns over food quality
• More integrated food systems are strengthening rural-urban linkages and creating new employment opportunities, but also induce:- more migratory flows- feminization of agriculture
Food systems are changingFood production is changing along with retail channels
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• Agriculture, forestry and land use contribute one fifth of them
• Dietary transition exacerbates pressure on natural resources
• Climate change is:- reducing nutrient content of crops- intensifying natural disasters- enhancing risk of foodborne
diseases and transboundary pests and diseases
Business as usual is not an option Global greenhouse gas emissions are on the rise
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ChallengesGlobal challenges facing food and agriculture
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• Sustainably improving agricultural productivity to meet increasing demand
• Ensuring a sustainable natural resource base
• Addressing climate change and intensification of natural hazards
• Preventing transboundary and emerging agriculture and food system threats
“Business as usual” cannot be an option: transformative changes are needed
Challenges for food stability and availability
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• Eradicating extreme poverty and reducing inequality
• Ending hunger and all forms of malnutrition
• Improving income earning opportunities in rural areas and addressing the root causes of migration
• Building resilience to protracted crises, disasters and conflicts
Challenges for access and utilization
• Making food systems more efficient, inclusive and resilient
• Addressing the need for coherent and effective national and international governance
Systemic challenges
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The Report is available at www.fao.org/3/a-i6583e.pdf
CONTACT
Global Perspectives Studieswww.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies