Download - The Economic Imperative
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The Economic Imperative The Economic Imperative Where is the world of work Where is the world of work
going?going?
The Center for Occupational Employment Information
Presents:
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Three Aspects of the ImperativeThree Aspects of the Imperative
The Labor Shortage
The Skills Gap
The Education Gap
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Higher Learning – Higher EarningHigher Learning – Higher Earning
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Non-HS HSG SomeCollege
4-YearCollege
Grad School
Ea
rnin
gs
Men Women
Source: Census Bureau: U.S. Population by educational attainment, 2004
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Skill requirements are Skill requirements are increasing increasing
UnskilledUnskilled
60%60%
SkilledSkilled
20%20%
ProfessionalProfessional
20%20%
SkilledSkilled
65%65%
UnskilledUnskilled
15%15%
ProfessionalProfessional
20%20%
1950 1997
Source: National Summit on 21st Century Skills for 21st Century Jobs
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New Jersey requirements are New Jersey requirements are higherhigher
• About 65% of the fastest growing occupations in the nation require some postsecondary education or training compared with 58% for New Jersey.
• By 2012, 44% of all N.J. jobs will require a vocational certificate, associate degree, bachelor’s degree or higher compared with 42% in the nation.
• By contrast, ten percent of the top 50 declining occupations in the nation require postsecondary education or training compared with only 4% in New Jersey.
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……but training is not meeting the but training is not meeting the needneed
• While worker educational requirements are increasing, the educational attainment of the U.S. workforce is declining.
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31
4043
51
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
U.S.
Canada
Ireland
Japan
Korea
55-64 45-54 35-44
25-34Source; Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators 2003
The U.S. is falling behindThe U.S. is falling behind
Percentage of the population with a postsecondary credential
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1990 2000 % Change
U.S. 13.7 15.7 +15%
China 3.8 13.6 +258%
India 4.9 9.4 +92%
Students Enrolled in Postsecondary(in thousands)
Source: UNESCO, 2003
……and the gap is wideningand the gap is widening
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Where is the competitive Where is the competitive advantage?advantage?
Bachelor level engineering degrees -1999Bachelor level engineering degrees -1999• U.S. 61,000 • Japan 103,000• E.U. 134,000• China 195,000* *Source: Choose to Compete, Computer Systems Policy Project
• If you look at India, China and Russia… even if you discount 90% of the people there as uneducated farmers… you still end up with about 300 million people who are educated. That is bigger than the entire U.S. workforce.
Source: Bob Herbert, New York Times
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The literacy problemThe literacy problem
Number of States Percent of Illiterate Adults
14 50% or More
20 40% to 49%
16 32% to 30%
Almost half of the nations adult population reads at a level below that expected of the average high school graduate, yet these individuals:
• Make up 39% of the workforce• Work in low paying, unstable jobs that are disappearing from the economy• Cannot - without extensive remediation - profit from projected economic growth
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Fastest growing industries in N.J.Fastest growing industries in N.J.
Industry % GrowthSocial assistance 45.6Ambulatory health care services 37.3Amusements, gambling, and recreation 31.3Administrative and support services 31.3Nursing and residential care facilities 30.7ISPs, search portals, and data processing 27.5Membership associations and organizations 25.3Professional and technical services 21.8Building material and garden supply stores 21.7Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores 21.4
Percent change: 2002 - 2012
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N.J. employment gains: short-term OJTN.J. employment gains: short-term OJT
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
Occupation Change
Cashiers 14,600
Retail Salespersons 14,600
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 11,800
Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 11,500
Receptionists and Information Clerks 9,200
Child Care Workers 9,200
Home Health Aides 8,800
Teacher Assistants 8,600
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 8,400
Waiters and Waitresses 7,600
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N.J. employment gains: moderate OJTN.J. employment gains: moderate OJT
Occupation Change
Customer Service Representatives 11,100
Medical Assistants 6,900
Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg., Exc. Technical & Scientific 5,600
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 5,100
Social and Human Service Assistants 4,900
Dental Assistants 3,700
Sales and Related Workers, All Other 3,100
Construction Laborers 2,600
Correctional Officers and Jailers 1,900
Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg., Technical & Scientific Products 1,500
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
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N.J. employment gains: long-term OJTN.J. employment gains: long-term OJT
Occupation Change
Electricians 3,400
Carpenters 3,300
Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 3,000
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 2,900
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 2,300
Photographers 1,800
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 1,800
Cooks, Restaurant 1,700
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 1,200
Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators 1,100
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
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N.J. employment gains: post-N.J. employment gains: post-secondarysecondary
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
Occupation Change
Medical Secretaries 6,800
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 5,200
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 4,200
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 3,900
Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 2,000
Computer Specialists, All Other 1,500
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 1,200
Legal Secretaries 1,200
Massage Therapists 900
Manicurists and Pedicurists 700
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N.J. employment gains: associate’s N.J. employment gains: associate’s degreedegree
Occupation Change
Registered Nurses 20,800
Computer Support Specialists 4,100
Dental Hygienists 1,900
Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 1,400
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 1,200
Paralegals and Legal Assistants 1,100
Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 900
Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 800
Respiratory Therapists 600
Biological Technicians 600
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
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N.J. employment gains: bachelor’s N.J. employment gains: bachelor’s degreedegree
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
Occupation Change
Computer Software Engineers, Applications 5,500
Computer Systems Analysts 5,500
Accountants and Auditors 5,400
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 5,100
Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Vocational Education 4,900
Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents 4,200
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 3,500
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 3,300
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 2,800
Special Education Teachers, Preschool and Elementary School 2,800
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N.J. employment gains: master’s N.J. employment gains: master’s degreedegree
Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012
Occupation Change
Rehabilitation Counselors 2,700
Physical Therapists 1,400
Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 1,100
Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists 800
Instructional Coordinators 800
Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors 700
Mental Health Counselors 600
Speech-Language Pathologists 600
Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors 500
Health Educators 400
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Occupations whose workers are Occupations whose workers are agingaging
OccupationPercent 55 and older
All occupations 13.9
Bus drivers 44.8
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers 32.4
Loan counselors and officers 32.3
Social workers 30.1
Environmental scientists and geoscientists 28.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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County highlightsCounty highlights
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County Highlights - HudsonCounty Highlights - Hudson
• Manufacturing sector is projected to continue its downward trend, led by apparel manufacturing which will decline at rate of 4.9% per year.
• Industry employment gains will be led by healthcare and social assistance, finance and insurance, and administrative and waste services. These will account for one of every two jobs created from 2002-2012.
• The county has the highest concentration of office and administrative support workers in the State (21.7%) due to significant employment in the finance, insurance and real estate industries.
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County Highlights - HunterdonCounty Highlights - Hunterdon
• A relatively small county (50,450 employment in 2002) with a projected annual growth rate of 1.6%.
• Retail trade and health and professional services are, and will continue to be, the county’s largest industries.
•Second only to Mercer in percentage of professional workers (23%)
• Health and social services are county’s fastest growing industries with over a 35% growth rate from 2002-2012.
• Professional business services will increase about 28%.
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County Highlights - MercerCounty Highlights - Mercer• The slowest growing county in the Central Region due to large employment in government and the declining manufacturing industries.
• Government employment made up more than one of every four jobs in in 2002 and is projected to continue that trend through 2012.
• Professional jobs will increase by about 10,500 from 2002-2012 (16.5%).
•Has the largest percentage of professional workers (27.5%), mainly due to the high concentration of government employment
• Four of the ten fastest growing occupations in the county are in health services.
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County Highlights - MiddlesexCounty Highlights - Middlesex
• Second largest county in State (Bergen #1) in total nonfarm payroll employment with over 420,000 in 2002.
• Largest projected employment increase in the State, expecting 55,950 new jobs.
• Middlesex is outpacing the State’s growth in nearly all major Occupational categories
• More than 60% of the job growth is projected to occur in the following three industries:
1. Administrative & waste services +16,1502. Health care and social assistance +10,2003. Professional and technical services +9,000
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County Highlights - SomersetCounty Highlights - Somerset
• Third fastest projected growth from 2002-2012 at 17.7%, behind only Gloucester and Ocean.
•Manufacturing sector is dominated by chemical industry with greater than a 40% share.
• Health care and social assistance industry will grow by more than 6,000 jobs, a 40% increase from 2002-2012.
• Security guards will add 1,200 jobs, an increase over 45%!!!
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County Highlights – UnionCounty Highlights – Union
• Employment is projected to grow at less than 1% per year.
• The manufacturing sector, third largest among NJ counties, is projected to lose 4,900 jobs from 2002-2012 (-12.2%).
• Only sales occupations will exceed average growth in the state.
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N.J. share of U.S. populationN.J. share of U.S. population
3 33
33
33
33
3
3
33 3
3
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
N.J
Po
pu
lati
on
Sh
are
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Female growth will no longer Female growth will no longer dominatedominate
Male36%
Female64%
Female46% Male
54%
1990-2002 2002-2012
Labor force share
29
Growth for minorities outpaces Growth for minorities outpaces whiteswhites
51
33
19
912
Asian Hispanic Black White Total
Projected labor force percent change, 2002-12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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CJJDA population trendsCJJDA population trends
Hudson
Mercer
Union
Middlesex
Hunterdon
Somerset
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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Older workers are coming back to Older workers are coming back to workwork
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Men
Women
Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – U.S. labor force participation, age 55+
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We need to meet the challengeWe need to meet the challenge
• We have an aging workforce.
• We have a growing labor shortage driven by demographics.
• We have a significant number of unemployed persons who do not have the knowledge or skills to become employed.
• Thirty-nine percent of our working adults do not read at the level expected of the average high school student.
• We expect to import millions of skilled foreign workers to meet our labor demand.
• One-third of the immigrants entering our country lack a high school education.