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Technical Analysis of selected scrips of Telecom,
Infrastructure and Banking sectors
By
(P.BALA KUMAR)
(REG. NO. 0929026)
A PROJECT REPORT
Submitted to the
CRESCENT BUSINESS SCHOOL
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the awardof the degree of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
APRIL 2011
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BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE
Certified that the project report titled Technical Analysis of selected scrip for Telecom,
Infrastructure and Bank is the bonafide work of Mr. (P.BALA KUMAR)(REG. NO.
0929026) who carried out the research under my supervision. Certified further, that to the
best of my knowledge the work reported herein does not form part of any other project report
or dissertation on the basis of which a degree or award was conferred on earlier occasion on
this or any other candidate.
(Mrs.PANBOLI)Assistant professor(senior grade)Crescent business schoolInternal guide
(Mr.YESUDASAN)Regional head ,
B M A wealth creators.Chennai
External guide
Dr. MIRZA S. SAIYADAIN
Dean, CBS
INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNALEXAMINER
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I express my profound thanks to our respected Vice-Chancellor Dr. P. KANNIAPPAN,
M.Sc. Ph.D., and our Registrar Dr. V.M. PERIASAMY, B.E., M.E., Ph.D., for their
enthusiastic support and help in providing all resources behind the scenes.
I wish to regard my sincere thanks to Dr. MIRZA S. SAIYADAIN, M.A., Ph.D., Professor
and Dean, Crescent Business School, B.S. Abdur Rahman University, Vandalur,
Chennai 600048.
I would like to thank to my guide , Mrs. PANBOLI Assistant Professor, Crescent Business
School, for her full involvement in every part of my project.
I would like to thank my external guide MR. YESUDASAN Manager, B M A wealth
creators. for his morale support and encouragement, which helped me in carrying out the
project successfully.
I sincerely thank all the staff members of the Crescent Business School for their valuable
advice and kind cooperation, without which the project would not have emerged as a
successful one.
It is once again a pleasure to acknowledge to my parents, friends and family members for
their constructive and valuable suggestions towards improvement of this project.
Place: Chennai (P.BALAKUMAR)
Date:
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ABSTRACT
The project titled Technical Analysis of selected scrip for Telecom,
Infrastructure and Bank was undertaken B M A wealth creators at chennai. The study
was conducted on few scrips price movements from a period of one year from april 2010 to
march 2011.. Three industries are taken for analysis namely infrastructure, banking, and
telecommunication. The chart provides signals for the existing, prospective investors or the
willing sellers to decide as to when they can buy or sell their scrips, in order to get best
returns on their investments.
Technical analysis attempts to explain and forecast changes in security prices by
studying only the market data rather than information about a company or its prospects as is
done by fundamental analyst. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's
intrinsic value; instead they look at stock charts for patterns and indicators that will determine
a stock's future performance.
The research started with clear analysis and understanding of the problem. The
problem was then classified in to primary and secondary objectives based on the need. Data
has been presented and analysed using suitable scaling technique and tools. Using the results
findings and suggestions are given at the end of the report.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO
LIST OF TABLES Vi
LIST OF FIGURES Vii
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Company Profile 1
1.2 Objectives of the study
1.3 Need For Study 4
4
2
3
4
1.4 Scope of the Study
Literature Survey
2.1 Review of Literature
2.2 Research Gap
2.3 Research Design
Methodologies
3.1 Profile of selected company
3.2 Assumptions, Constraints and Limitations
3.3 Data Processing
3.4 Tools for Analysis
Data Analysis and Interpretation
4.1 Relative Strength Index
4.2 Correlation Analysis Method
4.3 Rate of Change
5
6
6
7
8
17
18
18
20
29
34
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5
6
Conclusions
5.1Findings & Suggestions
5.2Conclusions
Appendix
6.1Bibliography 49
46
48
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LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NO. TABLE NAME PAGE NO
4.1.1 Calculation Of Day RSI For AIRTEL 21
4.1.2 Calculation Of Day RSI For RCOM 23
4.1.3 Calculation Of Day RSI For IDEA 26
4.1.1 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK
RETURN(SBI)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)
29
4.1.2 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK
RETURN(PNB)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)
30
4.1.3 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK
RETURN(ICICI)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)
32
vi
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LIST OF FIGURES AND CHARTS
FIGURE NO. FIGURE NAME PAGE NO
4.1.1 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of
DLF
35
4.1.2 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
36
4.1.3 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of
GMR INFRASTRUCTURE
37
4.1.4 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of
BHARTI AIRTEL
39
4.1.5 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of
RELIANCE COMMUNICATION
40
4.1.6 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of
IDEA
41
4.1.7 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of STATE
BANK OF INDIA
42
4.1.8 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of PUNJAB
NATIONAL BANK
43
4.1.9 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of ICICI 44
4.1.10 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of DLF 45
4.1.11 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
46
4.1.12 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of GMR
INFRASTRUCTURE
47
vii
CHAPTER-1
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INTRODUCTION
1.1COMPANY PROFILE
BMA Group, having interests in Refractory, Iron & Steel, Ferro Alloys etc. and having an
aggregate turnover of about Rs 1100 crs. had diversified into financial services in the year
2005 through setting up of BMA Wealth Creators.
Other BMA Group companies
BMA Stainless Ltd.
Maithan Alloys Ltd.
Maithan Smelters Ltd.
National Refractories
Anjaney Ferro Alloys Ltd.
The Behar Potteries Ltd.
A premier financial services organization providing individual and corporates with ustomized
financial solutions. We work towards understanding your financial goals and risk profile. Our
expertise combined with thorough understanding of the financial markets results in
appropriate investment solutions for you. At Wealth Creators we realize your dreams, needs,
aspirations, concerns and resources are unique. This is reflected in every move we make with
and for you. We have deep appreciation for the Value of building an everlasting relationship
with YOU.
Our financial services corporate entities are represented by :
BMA WEALTH CREATORS LTD. which holds corporate membership in two ofthe premier
bourses viz. National Stock Exchange Ltd and Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. and as
Depository Participant in Central Depositories Services Ltd. (CDSL) and National Securities
Depositories Ltd. (NSDL)
Members
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1. National Stock Exchange Of India Ltd (NSE)
2. The Stock Exchange , Mumbai (BSE)
Area of specialization
Buying, selling and dealing in shares and other securities in secondary markets.
Identifying investment avenues and advising on portfolio management of cash
Services offered
Service is required in everything, in research, in execution and in settlement. It is
going to be the key to survival. If given good service and value to your clients, it will
translate into good business. This has been a strong belief of the board members and they
have not only practiced it but also made efforts to inculcate similar values in the employees
of the organization.
Brokerage
Highly competitive
People
Efficient personal at the trading terminals to give you live quotes or
accept orders. Trained and quick dealers to obtain best rates on-line.
Place Fully air- conditioned trading premises
Comfortable ambience
Communication Adequate telephone and fax lines, direct lines for outstation calls.
E-Mail
Funds they pride themselves in being very prompt and totally reliable
they have built their reputation by honoring their commitments on time
Special facilities Also dedicated telephone line and/or dealer can be assigned for clients who
need the facility.
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Management team
The organization finds its growth in its team of young, talented and confident
individuals. Qualified professionals carry out different functions under the leadership of its
promoters.
Infrastructure
Greatest attention has been paid to transparency and speed with least scope for
human intervention in order execution and confirmation. They have separate trading
terminals for those clients who trade on the telephone with trained telephone- handlers as
dealers.
Reputation for prompt payments and top of the line world-class service levels has
provided them immense credibility in the market place.
Clientele consists of numerous highly valuable and long-standing accounts that will
vouch for our reliability and credibility.
Staffconsists of highly skilled, motivated and qualified personnel who have been
well-trained to spare no effort in providing ultimate customer satisfaction.
1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
Primary Objective
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To analyze the selected scrips of Telecom, Infrastructure and Banking sectors through
technical analysis.
Secondary Objectives
To make simple moving average chart for selected companies under nifty
To analyze and compare the signals revealed by simple moving average.
To give suggestions to investors for effective usage of simple moving average as an
indicator.
1.3 NEED FOR THE STUDY
It is well known that money is the blood of life. In the current scenario, protecting
and multiplying the money is more important than earning. There are many ways of
investment and one of the popular methods is by investing in the shares and Mutual funds.
Investment in these requires certain basic knowledge and involves a lot of risk. There are
various tools available for evaluating the performance of the investments in shares. One such
tool is the technical analysis, that helps in predicting the future movement of prices.
Technical analysis involves calculation and includes the drawing of graphs to track
the existing movement and to extend it to the future for predicting the future prices. It helps
the investor in making the investment decision whether to buy the shares of these companies
when their prices are at a hike or to sell when they drop with the help of the analysis and the
charts used in this study. It also helps in reducing the risk involved in investment of shares by
the investors.
1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The study is conducted with the price movements of the selected company shares for a
certain period only. This study helps an investor to take timely and correct decision regardingthe investment. This study is limited to selected industries (Infrastructure,
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Telecommunication, Bank) This study can also be used as a referral for other forth coming
studies in the similar field.
CHAPTER -2
LITERATURE SURVEY
2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
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These paper titled early mover advantage Govert E. Bijwaard Maarten C.W.
Janssen*Emiel Maasland, December 22, 2004 We find a clear early mover advantage, mainly
caused by the influence of the penetration rate: it pays to enter when still few people have
acquired a mobile telephone. Another important determining factor is the Herfindahl-
Hirschman Index at the moment of entry: it is significantly easier to enter a highly
concentrated industry. These paper titled A Projection of Best Emerging Bank in Sultanate
of Oman Damodharan .V. S.* and Rengarajan.V, January 2008 But in practice this gives an
overview of the performance of banks on different parameters used. An attempt has been
made to analyze the performance of banks using Price Earnings ratios as well as statistical
models. The results were also tested using fundamental and technical analysis of security
analysis.These paper titled The di_usion of infrastructure dependent technologies: A simple
model We thereby consider the development of large from an evolutionary perspective. We
_rst provide a concise overview describing the literature on the evolution 1 of large technical
systems in Section 2 and identify a set of characteristics that should be captured by our
model. A model based on this description is then presented in Section 3. Section 4 describes
model results as well as a comparison with data concerning the evolution of the LPG system
in the Netherlands.Finally Section 5 concludes.
2.2 RESEARCH GAP
The above papers dealt technical analysis of only limited companies under Telecom,
infrastructure and Banking sectors .Hence this research targeted the following companies for
the study of technical analysis 1) Telecom 2) Infrastructure 3) Banking .
2.3 RESEARCH DESIGN
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Research is an active, diligent and systematic process of inquiry in order to
discover, interpret or revise facts, events, behaviours, or theories, or to make practical
applications with the help of such facts, laws or theories. The term "research" is also used to
describe the collection of information about a particular subject. It means a systematic
investigation, including research development, testing and evaluation, designed to develop or
contribute to general knowledge. Activities which meet this definition constitute research for
purposes of this policy, whether or not they are conducted or supported under a program
which is considered research for other purposes.
Research Methodology refers to the way in which the data are collected for the
research project and also includes all the techniques, methods and procedures adopted in
research work to carry out research. It includes the sequence of steps involved in carrying out
the research.
The research design is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted.
A design is used to structure the research, to show how all of the major parts of the research
project -- the samples or groups, measures, treatments or programs, and methods of
assignment -- work together to try to address the central research questions.
This is an Analytic research. Analytical research aims at analyzing the current
scenario and thereby using that to project the future performance. For the purpose of the
study the following are the industries chosen based on the data available. The name of the
industries and the companies are given below.
CHAPTER -3
METHODOLOGIES
3.1 PROFILE OF SELECTED COMPANIES
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Telecommunication Bharti Airtel
Reliance Communication Limited
Idea Cellular Limited
Banks State Bank Of India
Punjab National Bank
ICICI Bank Limited
Infrastructure DLF
Reliance Infrastructure
GMR
INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY
Infrastructure is the basic physical and organizational structures needed for the
operation of a society or enterprise, or the services and facilities necessary for an
economy to function. The term typically refers to the technical structures that support
a society, such as roads, water supply, sewers,power grids, telecommunications, and
so forth. Viewed functionally, infrastructure facilitates the production of goods and
services; for example, roads enable the transport of raw materials to a factory, andalso for the distribution of finished products to markets. In some contexts, the term
may also include basic social services such as schools and hospitals. In military
parlance, the term refers to the buildings and permanent installations necessary for the
support, redeployment, and operation of military forces.
Encompassing all things to all people is hardly a useful way to
define infrastructure clouding investors, governments, and their citizens ability to
understand, advocate, and direct capital toward durable, networked assets with
widespread societal benefits. Primary infrastructure components are generally
monopolistic in nature and require large financial commitments for their development,
repair and replacement. They can be built, touched, enabled, disabled, and function
together to form interrelated, dependent systems that deliver needed commodities and
services to society. In doing so, they facilitate economic productivity and promote a
standard of living. Infrastructure can then be more concisely defined as The physical
components of interrelated systems providing commodities and services essential
to enable, sustain, or enhance societal living conditions.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_gridshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raw_materialhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_gridshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raw_materialhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society -
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DLFDLF Limited orDLF (originally Delhi Land and Finance) is
India's biggest real estate developerbased in New Delhi, India. The DLF Group was founded
by Raghuvendra Singh in 1946. DLF developed residential colonies in Delhi such as ShivajiPark ( which was actually its first one), Rajouri Garden, Krishna Nagar, South Extension,
Greater Kailash, Kailash Colony and Hauz Khas. In 1957, with the passage of Delhi
Development Act, the local government assumed control of real estate development in Delhi
and banned private real estate developers.
As a result DLF began acquiring land at relatively low cost outside the area controlled by the
Delhi Development Authority, in the district ofGurgaon, in the adjacent state ofHaryana. In
the mid-1970s, the company started developing DLF City project at Gurgaon. Its upcoming
plans include hotels,infrastructure and special economic zones-related development projects.
The company is currently headed by Indian billionaire Kushal Pal Singh, a Jat from
BulandShahar. Kushal Pal Singh, according to the Forbes listing of richest billionaires in
2009, now stands as the 98th richest man in the world and the world's richest property
developer. The company's US$ 2 billion IPO in July, 2007 created India's biggest IPO in
history. In July 2007, DLF announced its first quarter results ending 30 June 2007. The
company reported a turnover of Rs. 3,120.98 Crore and PAT at Rs. 1,515.48 Crore.
Reliance InfrastructureReliance Infrastructure, (BSE: 500390) formerly known as Reliance Energy and prior to
that as Bombay Suburban Electric Supply (BSES), Its India's largest private sector
enterprise in power utility and its a company under the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani
Group banner, one of India's largest conglomerates. The company is headed by Anil Ambani.The company's corporate headquarters is situated in Mumbai. The company is the sole
distributor of electricity to consumers in the suburbs of Mumbai. It also runs power
generation, transmission and distribution businesses in other parts of Maharashtra, Goa and
Andhra Pradesh. Reliance Energy plans to increase its power generation capacity by adding
16,000 MW with investments of $13 billion.
GMR
GMR Group is a major infrastructure company in India which is headquartered in
Bangalore. The company was founded in 1978. The core business areas of the company
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurgaonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haryanahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructurehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zoneshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Rich_Listhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kushal_Pal_Singhhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US$http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPOhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500390http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anil_Ambanihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtrahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradeshhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalorehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurgaonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haryanahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructurehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zoneshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Rich_Listhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kushal_Pal_Singhhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US$http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPOhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500390http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anil_Ambanihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtrahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradeshhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalore -
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include airports, energy and highways; apart from having presence in the agriculture and
aviation sectors. They are also actively involved in community service as a part ofCorporate
Social Responsibility.
Airports.
Roads and Highways
Energy
Agriculture
Aviation
TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY
The Indian telecommunications industry is one of the fastest growing in the world
and India is projected to become the second largest telecom market globally by 2010.
In April 2008, India overtook the US as the second largest wireless market, and as a
pointer to the increasing global influence of Indian telecom companies, seven Indians have
featured in the list of the world's 100 most influential telecom leaders, compiled by Global
Telecoms Business, an industry magazine.
According to CRISIL Research estimates, eight infrastructure sectors, which include
the telecom sector, are expected to draw more than US$ 345.28 billion investment in India by
2012.
With the rural India growth story unfolding, the telecom sector is likely to see
tremendous growth in India's rural and semi-urban areas in the years to come. By 2012, India
is likely to have 200 million rural telecom connections at a penetration rate of 25 per cent.
And according to a report jointly released by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and
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Ernst & Young, by 2012, rural users will account for over 60 per cent of the total telecom
subscriber base.
It is projected that the industry will generate revenues worth US$ 43 billion in 2009-
10.India's telecom equipment manufacturing sector is set to become one of the largestglobally by 2010.
Mobile phone production is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 28.3 per cent from 2006 to
2011, totaling 107 million handsets by 2010. Revenues are estimated to grow at a CAGR of
26.6 per cent from 2006 to 2011, touching US$ 13.6 billion
Bharati AirtelBharti Airtel Limited (NSE: BHARTIARTL,BSE: 532454), commonly known as
airtel, is an Indian telecommunicationscompany that operates in 19 countries across South
Asia, Africa and the Channel Islands. It operates a GSM networkin all countries, providing
2G or3G services depending upon the country of operation. Airtel is the fifth largest telecom
operator in the world with over 207.8 million subscribers across 19 countries at the end of
2010. It is the largest cellular service providerinIndia, with over 152.5 million subscribers at
the end of 2010. Airtel is the 3rd largest in-country mobile operator by subscriber base,
behind China Mobile and China Unicom..
Airtel also offers fixed line services and broadband services. It offers its telecom services
under the Airtel brand and is headed by Sunil Bharti Mittal. Bharti Airtel is the first Indian
telecom service provider to achieve this Cisco Gold Certification. To earn Gold
Certification, Bharti Airtel had to meet rigorous standards for networking competency,
service, support and customer satisfaction set forth by Cisco. The company also provides
land-line telephone services and broadband Internet access (DSL) in over 96 cities in India.
It also acts as a carrier for national and international long distance communication services.
The company has a submarine cable landing station at Chennai, which connects the
submarine cable connectingChennai and Singapore.
It is known for being the first mobile phone company in the world to outsource everything
except marketing and sales and finance. Its network (base stations, microwave links, etc.) are
maintained by Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Network and Huawei.,[4] business support by IBM
and transmission towers by another company (Bharti Infratel Ltd. in India). [5] Ericsson agreed
for the first time, to be paid by the minute for installation and maintenance of their equipment
rather than being paid up front. This enabled the company to provide pan-India phone call
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=BHARTIARTL§ion=7http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=BHARTIARTL§ion=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532454http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Islandshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM_networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Mobilehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Unicomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Bharti_Mittalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciscohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chennaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chennaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericssonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Siemens_Networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Siemens_Networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaweihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaweihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=BHARTIARTL§ion=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532454http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Islandshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM_networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Mobilehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Unicomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Bharti_Mittalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciscohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chennaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericssonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Siemens_Networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaweihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM -
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rates of Rs. 1/minute (U$0.02/minute). Call rates have come down much further. [6] During the
last financial year [2009-10], Bharti has roped in a strategic partnerAlcatel-Lucent to manage
the network infrastructure for the Telemedia Business.
Reliance Communication LimitedIn July 2007, the company announced it was buying US-based managed ethernet and
application delivery services companyYipes Enterprise Services for a cash amount of 1200
crore (the equivalent of US$300 million). The deal was announced of the overseas
acquisition, the Reliance group has amalgamated the United States-based Flag Telecom for
$210 million (roughly 950 crore). RTL operates in Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal
Pradesh, Orissa, Bihar, Assam, Kolkata and Northeast, offeringGSM services.
Reliance communications limited provides integrated converged communications
services to individual, enterprise, and carrier customers primarily in India. With more than 48
million customers, the company serves consumers and enterprises with a digital network
supporting voice, data, and video the company offers wireless, wireline, national long
distance, international, voice, data, video and internet based communication services. Its
services for individual customers primarily include mobile, fixed wireless phone, fixed
wireless terminal, roaming, landline, internet connection, phone community, and public
calling office.
IDEA Cellular LimitedIdea Cellular, usually referred to as !dea, (BSE: 532822,NSE: IDEA) is a
wireless telephony company operating in all the 22 telecom circles in India based in
Mumbai. It is the 3rd largest GSM company in India behind Airtel,Vodafone.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatel-Lucenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatel-Lucenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethernethttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Yipes_Enterprise_Services&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Yipes_Enterprise_Services&action=edit&redlink=1http://www.flagtelecom.com/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532822http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=IDEA§ion=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephonyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airtelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafonehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatel-Lucenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethernethttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Yipes_Enterprise_Services&action=edit&redlink=1http://www.flagtelecom.com/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532822http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=IDEA§ion=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephonyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airtelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone -
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Idea Cellular is part of the Aditya Birla Group, which is India's first truly
multinational corporation. India's leading GSM Mobile Services operator, IDEA Cellular has
licenses to operate in 11 circles. With a customer base of over 17 million, IDEA Cellular has
operations in Delhi, Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh,
Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, UP-West, Himachal Pradesh and Kerala. IDEA Cellular's
footprint currently covers approximately 45% of India's population and over 50% of the
potential telecom-market.
BANKING INDUSTRY
A bankis a financial intermediary and appears in several related basic forms:
a central bank issues money on behalf of a government, and regulates the money
supply
a commercial bank accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending
activities, either directly or through capital markets. A bank connects customers with
capital deficits to customers with capital surpluses on the world's open financial
markets.
a savings bank, also known as abuilding society in Britain is only allowed to borrowand save from members of a financial cooperative
Banks often start as microcredit or savings clubs which become formalized, first as credit
unions and later savings banks which transform themselves from cooperatives to limited
liability companies. A fuller description of these forms appears below.
Banking is generally a highly regulated industry, and government restrictions on financial
activities by banks have varied over time and location. The current set of global bank capital
standards are called Basel II. In some countries such as Germany, banks have historicallyowned major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United
States banks are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. In Japan, banks are
usually the nexus of a cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. In Iceland banks had
very light regulation prior to the 2008 collapse.
The oldest bank still in existence is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, headquartered in Siena, Italy,
and has been operating continuously since 1472.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_intermediaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_accounthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_surplushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperativehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcredithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_clubhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_regulationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsuhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%932010_Icelandic_financial_crisishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_dei_Paschi_di_Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_intermediaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_accounthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_surplushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperativehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcredithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_clubhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_regulationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsuhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%932010_Icelandic_financial_crisishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_dei_Paschi_di_Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy -
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For the past three decades Indias banking system has several outstanding
achievements to its credit. The most striking is its extensive reach. It is no longer confined to
only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact, Indian banking system has reached
even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main reasons of Indias growth
process.
The industry is currently in a transition phase. On the one hand, the public sector
banks, which are the mainstay of the Indian banking system, are in the process of shedding
their flab in terms of excessive manpower, excessive Non Performing Assests and excessive
governmental equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are consolidating
themselves through mergers and acquisitions.
A burgeoning economy, financial sector reforms, rising foreign investment, favorable
regulatory climate and demographic profile has led to India becoming one of the fastest
growing banking market in the world. The overall banking industrys business grew at a
CAGR of about 20 per cent from US$ 469.4 billion as of March 2002, to US$ 1171.29 billion
by March 2007.
Aggregate bank deposits of banks increased by us$129.26 billion (22.1 percent) at the
end of March 2007 over the corresponding in 2006. It further increased by 21.2 percent to
US$ 161.47 billion as at end march 2008 over the corresponding period in 2007.while
aggregate demand deposits increased by 19.2 percent, aggregate time deposits increased by
21.6 percent in the same period, indicating migration from small savings schemes of the
government.
Also. the banking sector has been doing exceedingly well on the financial front.
Punjab National Bank
Punjab National Bank (PNB) is one of India's largest nationalized banks, with
some 4,500 locations. Punjab National Bank is serving over 3.5 crore customers through
4525 Offices including 432 extension counters - largest amongst Nationalized Banks. The
Bank was recently ranked 21st amongst top 500 companies by the leading financial daily,
Economic Times.
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The bank has been focussing on expanding its operations outside India and has
identified some of the emerging economies which offer large business potential. Bank has set
up representative offices at Almaty: Kazakhistan, Shanghai: China and in London. Besides,
Bank has opened a fully fledged Branch in Kabul, Afghanistan.
ICICI bank LimitedICICI Bank (NSE: ICICIBANK, BSE: 532174, NYSE: IBN) (formerly Industrial
Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Hindi: ) is a major
banking and financial services organization in India. It is the second largest bank in India
and the largest private sector bank in India by market capitalization. The bank also has a
network of 2,016 branches (as on 31 March 2010) and about 5,219 ATMs in India and
presence in 18 countries, as well as some 24 million customers (at the end of July 2007).
ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and
retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and specialization subsidiaries and
affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and
asset management. (These data are dynamic.) ICICI Bank is also the largest issuer of credit
cards in India. ICICI Bank's shares are listed on the stock exchanges at BSE,NSE, Kolkata
and Vadodara (formerly Baroda) ; its ADRs trade on the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE).
The Bank is expanding in overseas markets and has the largest international balance
sheet among Indian banks. ICICI Bank now has wholly owned subsidiaries, branches and
representatives offices in 19 countries, including an offshore unit in Mumbai. This includes
wholly owned subsidiaries in Canada, Russia and the UK (the subsidiary through which the
HiSAVE savings brand[5] is operated), offshore banking units in Bahrain and Singapore, an
advisory branch in Dubai, branches in Belgium, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka, and
representative offices in Bangladesh, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand,
the United Arab Emirates and USA. Overseas, the Bank is targeting the NRI (Non-Resident
Indian) population in particular.
ICICI reported a 1.15% rise in net profit to 1,014.21 crore on a 1.29% increase in
total income to 9,712.31 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007. The bank's
CASA ratio increased to 30% in 2008 from 25% in 2007.
ICICI Bank is one of the Big Fourbanks of India, along with State Bank of India,Punjab National Bankand HDFC Bank
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=ICICIBANK§ion=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532174http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.nyse.com/about/listed/quickquote.html?ticker=ibnhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindi_languagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolkata_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadodara_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CASA_ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab_National_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HDFC_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=ICICIBANK§ion=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532174http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.nyse.com/about/listed/quickquote.html?ticker=ibnhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindi_languagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolkata_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadodara_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CASA_ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab_National_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HDFC_Bank -
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State Bank Of IndiaState Bank of India is the nation's largest bank. Tracing its roots back some 200
years to the British East India Company (and initially established as the Bank of Calcutta in
1806), the bank operates more than 14,000 branches within India, where it also owns
majority stakes in seven associate banks. State Bank of India has more than 50 offices in
nearly 35 other countries, including multiple locations in the US, Canada, and Nigeria. The
bank has other units devoted to capital markets, fund management, factoring and commercial
services, and brokerage services. The Reserve Bank of India owns about 60% of State Bank
of India.
The banks dealing rooms provide 24-hour trading facilities and employs state-of-the-
art technology and information systems. SBIs relationships with over 700 correspondent
banks and institutions across the globe enhance the strength of the Forex treasury.
Data Collection
The data used for this study is secondary data. The daily price movements of the
companies have been collected from the website nseindia.com
The data include the daily price movements of the companies for the period of one
year from April 2010 to March 2011.
3.2 ASSUMPTION
As a first step in improving on "naive" forecasting models, non seasonal patterns and
trends can be extrapolated using a moving-average or smoothingmodel. The basic
assumption behind averaging and smoothing models is that the time series is "locally
stationary" with a slowly varying mean. Hence, we take a moving(i.e., local) average toestimate the current value of the mean, and use this as the forecast. This can be considered as
a compromise between the mean model and the random walk model. The moving average is
often called a "smoothed" version of the original series, since short-term averaging has the
effect of smoothing out the bumps in the original series. By adjusting the degree of
smoothing (i.e., the "width" of the moving average), we can hope to strike some kind of
optimal balance between the performance of the mean and random walk models.
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LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
The limitations are, period of study is limited few months only. The study is
conducted only on selected industries, and few stocks. The data of previous one year from
April 2010 to march 2011 is only taken. The market discounts everything, therefore it is
difficult to arrive on a consensus based on just a particular tool prediction alone.
3.3 DATA PROCESSING
Type of data
Secondary Data
Sources
Companys annual report
Companys website
Research Period
1 year (from April 2010 to March 2011)
3.4 Tools Analysis
Quantitative method
Regression
Rate of change
Relative Strength Index
SPSS software used for analysis.
CHAPTER-4
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DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Analysis of share price movements of Telecom, Bank and Infrastructure by using technical
analysis
Introduction
Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to forecast
the future direction of security prices through the study of past market data, primarily price
and volume Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets
are indications of future performance.
Tools used
1. Relative Strength Index
2. Regression Line
3. Rate of change
CALCULATIONS
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4.1 Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI's full name is actually rather unfortunate as it is easily confused with other
forms of Relative Strength analysis such as John Murphy's "Relative Strength" charts and
IBD's "Relative Strength" rankings. Most other kinds of "Relative Strength" stuff involve
using more than one stock in the calculation. Like most true indicators, the RSI only needs
one stock to be computed. In order to avoid confusion, many people avoid using the RSI's full
name and just call it "the RSI."
Calculation of RSI
100
RSI = 100 - ------------
1 + RS
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
To simplify our explanation of the formula, the RSI has been broken down into its basic
components which are the RS, the Average Gain, and the Average Loss.
To calculate RSI values for a given dataset, first find the magnitude of all gains and losses for
the 9 periods prior to the time where you wish to start the calculation. (Note: 9 is the standard
number of periods used when calculating the RSI. If a different number is specified, justsubstitute that number in for "9" throughout this discussion.)
To start the running calculation, the First Average Gain is calculated as the total of all gains
during the past 9 periods divided by 9. Similarly, the First Average Loss is calculated as the
total magnitude of all losses during the past 9 periods divided by 9. The next values for the
"averages" are calculated by taking the previous value, multiplying it by 8, adding in the next
Gain (or Loss), and then dividing by 9. This is Wilder's modified "smoothing" technique in
Action .The RS value is simply the Average Gain divided by the Average Loss for each
period.
Finally, the RSI is simply the RS converted into an oscillator that goes between zero
and 100 using this formula: 100 - (100 / RS + 1).
Table 4.1.1 Calculation Of Day RSI For AIRTEL
DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSE RSI
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03-Jan-11 359.35
04-Jan-11 355.3 -4.05 -4.05
05-Jan-11 349.9 -5.4 -5.4
06-Jan-11 353.25 3.35 3.35
07-Jan-11 338.7 -14.55 -14.55
10-Jan-11 338.85 0.15 0.15
11-Jan-11 339.2 0.35 0.35
12-Jan-11 348.5 9.3 9.3
13-Jan-11 346.05 -2.45 -2.45
13.15 -26.45
3.2875 -6.6125 -0.49716
33.20419
14-Jan-11 342.7 342.7 -3.35
17-Jan-11 347.6 4.9 4.9
18-Jan-11 344.5 -3.1 -3.1
19-Jan-11 344.05 -0.45 -0.4520-Jan-11 340.3 -3.75 -3.75
21-Jan-11 336.6 -3.7 -3.7
24-Jan-11 333.85 -2.75 2.75
25-Jan-11 336.85 3 3
27-Jan-11 325.65 -11.2 -11.2
7.9 -22.8
3.95 -3.25714 -1.21272
54.80635
28-Jan-11 327.1 327.1 1.4531-Jan-11 318.55 -8.55 -8.55
01-Feb-11 314.6 -3.95 -3.95
02-Feb-11 323.25 8.65 8.65
03-Feb-11 339.8 16.55 16.55
04-Feb-11 331.8 -8 -8
07-Feb-11 334 2.2 2.2
08-Feb-11 333.25 -0.75 -0.75
09-Feb-11 332.35 -0.9 -0.9
28.85 -22.15
7.2125 -4.43 -1.6281
61.9482
5
10-Feb-11 323.05 323.05 -9.3
11-Feb-11 319.55 -3.5 -3.5
14-Feb-11 327.3 7.75 7.75
15-Feb-11 328.75 1.45 1.45
16-Feb-11 328.15 -0.6 -0.6
17-Feb-11 338.45 10.3 10.3
18-Feb-11 332.15 -6.3 -6.3
21-Feb-11 331.95 -0.2 -0.2
22-Feb-11 331.15 -0.8 -0.8
19.5 -20.7
6.5 -3.45 -1.88406
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65.32594
23-Feb-11 327.85 327.85 -3.3
24-Feb-11 325.35 -2.5 -2.5
25-Feb-11 329.2 3.85 3.85
28-Feb-11 331.1 1.9 1.9
01-Mar-11 337.85 6.75 6.75
03-Mar-11 330.7 -7.15 -7.15
04-Mar-11 326.75 -3.95 -3.95
07-Mar-11 323.95 -2.8 -2.8
08-Mar-11 334.2 10.25 10.25
22.75 -19.7
5.6875 -3.94 -1.44353
59.1002
09-Mar-11 332.3 332.3 -1.9
10-Mar-11 329.7 -2.6 -2.6
11-Mar-11 322.85 -6.85 -6.85
14-Mar-11 321.55 -1.3 -1.3
15-Mar-11 314.2 -7.35 -7.35
16-Mar-11 320.45 6.25 6.25
17-Mar-11 318.3 -2.15 -2.15
18-Mar-11 317.9 -0.4 -0.4
21-Mar-11 317.35 -0.55 -0.55
6.25 -23.1
6.25 -2.8875 -2.1645
68.39444
22-Mar-11 325.85 325.85 8.5
23-Mar-11 330.4 4.55 4.55
24-Mar-11 332.9 2.5 2.5
25-Mar-11 339.1 6.2 6.2
28-Mar-11 347.8 8.7 8.7
29-Mar-11 359.5 11.7 11.7
30-Mar-11 359.25 -0.25 -0.25
42.15 -0.25
7.025 -0.25 -28.196.56357
Inference
The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If
the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip.If the share price value of Airtel is in
the position of up trend,it gives a clear signal of sell.the term oversold describes a
security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.this condition is characeried
by an increase in sales and excess of net declines.
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Table 4.1.2 Calculation Of Day RSI For RCOM
DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSS
03-Jan-11 147.9 04-Jan-11 144.2 -3.7 -3.7
05-Jan-11 140.15 -4.05 -4.05
06-Jan-11 139.95 -0.2 -0.2
07-Jan-11 139.1 -0.85 -0.85
10-Jan-11 135 -4.1 -4.1
11-Jan-11 137.8 2.8 2.8
12-Jan-11 138.3 0.5 0.5
13-Jan-11 138.5 0.2 0.2
3.5 -12.9
1.166667 -2.58 -0.4522
31.13896
14-Jan-11 138.4 138.4 -0.1
17-Jan-11 131.8 -6.6 -6.6
18-Jan-11 132.15 0.35 0.35
19-Jan-11 131 -1.15 -1.15
20-Jan-11 133.25 2.25 2.25
21-Jan-11 136.1 2.85 2.85
24-Jan-11 134.65 -1.45 -1.45
25-Jan-11 132.8 -1.85 -1.85
27-Jan-11 127.65 -5.15 -5.15
5.45 -16.3
1.816667 -2.71667 -0.66871
40.07311
28-Jan-11 125.1 125.1 -2.55
31-Jan-11 122.6 -2.5 -2.5
01-Feb-11 118.35 -4.25 -4.55
02-Feb-11 117.05 -1.3 -1.3
03-Feb-11 118.05 1 1
04-Feb-11 114.75 -3.3 -3.3
07-Feb-11 115.55 0.8 0.8
08-Feb-11 110.7 -4.85 -4.85
09-Feb-11 94.85 -15.85 -15.85
1.8 -34.9
0.9 -4.98571 -0.1805215.29013
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10-Feb-11 96.55 96.55 1.7
11-Feb-11 97.15 0.6 0.6
14-Feb-11 97.4 0.25 0.25
15-Feb-11 101.45 4.05 4.05
16-Feb-11 99.7 -1.75 -1.75
17-Feb-11 99.95 0.25 0.25
18-Feb-11 93.15 -6.8 -6.8
21-Feb-11 93.7 0.55 0.55
22-Feb-11 95.1 1.4 1.4
8.8 -8.55
1.257143 -4.275 -0.29407
22.72025
23-Feb-11 96.5 96.5 1.4
24-Feb-11 92.55 -3.95 -3.9525-Feb-11 87.55 -5 -5
28-Feb-11 86 -1.55 -1.55
01-Mar-11 90.3 4.3 4.3
03-Mar-11 93.25 2.95 2.95
04-Mar-11 93.3 0.05 0.05
07-Mar-11 90.05 -3.25 -3.25
08-Mar-11 90.8 0.75 0.75
9.45 -13.75
1.89 -3.4375 -0.54982
35.47555
09-Mar-11 99.3 99.3 8.5
10-Mar-11 99.75 0.45 0.45
11-Mar-11 96.3 -3.45 -3.45
14-Mar-11 100.5 4.2 4.2
15-Mar-11 100.95 0.45 0.45
16-Mar-11 102.95 2 2
17-Mar-11 106.55 3.6 3.6
18-Mar-11 104.5 -2.05 -2.05
21-Mar-11 102.9 -1.6 -1.6
19.2 -7.1
3.2 -2.36667 -1.35211
57.4848
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22-Mar-11 103.5 103.5 0.6
23-Mar-11 104.65 1.15 1.15
24-Mar-11 104.7 0.05 0.05
25-Mar-11 106.8 2.1 2.1
28-Mar-11 105.2 -1.6 -1.6
29-Mar-11 109.6 4.4 4.4
30-Mar-11 109.9 0.3 0.3
8.6 -1.6
1.433333 -1.6 -0.89583
47.25182
Inference
The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If
the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of reliance
communication is in the position of down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term
overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and
the price has to go down.
Table 4.1.3 Calculation Of Day RSI For IDEA
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Inference
The broad rule is, if the
RSI crosses seventy three may
be downturn and it is time to
sell. If the RSI falls below thirty
it is time to pick up the scrip. Ifthe share price value of idea is
in the position of uptrend to
down trend, it gives a clear
signal of buy. The term
overbought describes the price
level at which momentum can
no longer be maintained and the
price has to go down.
33
DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSS
03-Jan-11 70.7
04-Jan-11 69.5 -1.2 -1.2
05-Jan-11 69.45 -0.05 -0.05
06-Jan-11 69.6 0.15 0.15
07-Jan-11 67.3 -2.3 -2.3
10-Jan-11 66.3 -1 -1
11-Jan-11 66.5 0.2 0.2
12-Jan-11 67.95 1.45 1.45
13-Jan-11 67.3 -0.65 -0.65
1.8 -5.2
0.6 -1.04 -0.57692
36.58444
14-Jan-11 67.7 67.7 0.4
17-Jan-11 69.15 1.45 1.45
18-Jan-11 68.85 -0.3 -0.3
19-Jan-11 68.85 0 0
20-Jan-11 68.8 -0.05 -0.05
21-Jan-11 68.6 -0.2 -0.2
24-Jan-11 69.3 0.7 0.7
25-Jan-11 71.55 2.25 2.25
27-Jan-11 70.75 -0.8 -0.8
4.8 -1.35
0.96 -0.3375 -2.84444
73.98543
28-Jan-11 70.15 70.15 -0.6
31-Jan-11 69.6 -0.55 -0.55
01-Feb-11 66.45 -3.15 -3.15
02-Feb-11 68.75 2.3 2.3
03-Feb-11 71.3 2.55 2.55
04-Feb-11 69.8 -1.5 -1.5
07-Feb-11 68.8 -1 -108-Feb-11 68.4 -0.4 -0.4
09-Feb-11 66.3 -2.1 -2.1
4.85 -9.3
2.425 -1.32857 -1.82527
64.60515
10-Feb-11 64.85 64.85 -1.4511-Feb-11 63.5 -1.35 -1.35
14-Feb-11 63.35 -0.15 -0.15
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4.2 CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHOD
TABLE 4.2.1CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(SBI)AND
MARKET RETURN(NSE)
Correlations
nse SbiPearson Correlation Nse 1.000 .297
Sbi .297 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) Nse . .010
Sbi .010 .
N Nse 61 61
Sbi 61 61
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Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation NNse 5568.5902 210.04083 61
Sbi 2641.9820 80.33271 61
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INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of R is less than +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive
relationship between NSE and SBI . Since r is below +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.
But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is
moving slower than market movement.
TABLE 4.2.2 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(PNB)ANDMARKET RETURN(NSE)
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
Nse 5568.5902 210.04083 61
Pnb 1104.8607 52.96681 61
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Correlations
Nse Pnb
Pearson Correlation Nse 1.000 .927
Pnb .927 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) Nse . .000
Pnb .000 .
N Nse 61 61
Pnb 61 61
Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standar
dized
Coeffici
ents
t Sig.
95.0%
Confidence
Interval for B Correlations
B
Std.
Error Beta
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Zero-
order
Parti
al Part
1 (Constant)
1504.977
213.497
7.049 .000 1077.769
1932.184
pnb 3.678 .193 .927 19.05
5
.000 3.292 4.064 .927 .927 .927
a. Dependent Variable: nse
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INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of R is 1, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship
between NSE and PNB. Since r is positive it means that as both value are same (often called
an equal correlation) The result shows that the PNB moves in tandem with the market.
TABLE 4.2.3 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(ICICIE)ANDMARKET RETURN(NSE)
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
Nse 5568.5902 210.04083 61
icici_bank 1027.5705 38.76580 61
Correlations
nse icici_bank
Pearson Correlation Nse 1.000 .771
icici_bank .771 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) Nse . .000
icici_bank .000 .
N Nse 61 61
icici_bank 61 61
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Model Summary
Model
R R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of
the Estimate
d
im
e
n
s
i
o
n
0
1 .771a .595 .588 134.81971
ANOVAb
Model Sum of
Squares df Mean Square F Sig.1 Regression 1574624.292 1 1574624.292 86.630 .000a
Residual 1072404.823 59 18176.353
Total 2647029.114 60
a. Predictors: (Constant), icici_bank
b. Dependent Variable: nse
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Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standard
ized
Coefficie
nts
t Sig.
95.0% Confidence
Interval for B Correlations
B
Std.
Error Beta
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Zero-
order
Partia
l Part
1 (Const
ant)
1274.45
5
461.683 2.760 .008 350.629 2198.28
2
icici_b
ank
4.179 .449 .771 9.308 .000 3.281 5.077 .771 .771 .771
a. Dependent Variable: nse
INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of R is +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive
relationship between NSE and ICICI . Since r is +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But
the increase is not proportionate,it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is
moving slower than market movement.
4.3. RATE OF CHANGE
Rate of change indicator or the ROC measures the rate of change between the current
price and the price n number of days in the past. ROC helps to find out the overbought and
oversold positions in a scrip. It is also useful in identifying the trend reversal. Closing prices
are used to calculate the ROC. Daily closing prices are used for the daily ROC and weekly
closing prices for weekly ROC.
ROC = ( (Today's close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago) ) * 100
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Chart no: 4.1.1 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of
DLF from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)
Inference
The chart of DLF shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC
moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal
changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend
with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.
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Chart no:4.1.2 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)
Inference
The chart of Reliance Infrastructure shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11
and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a
superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be
used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum
based indicators.
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Chart no:4.1.3 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of
GMR INFRASTRUCTURE from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)
Inference
The chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE shows that a large positive divergence formed in
jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline and the price
level increase in the month of feb-11and it maintain its curve level. While this was a superb
buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in
down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based
indicators.
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Pictorial depiction
Chart no:4.1.4 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF
BHARTI AIRTEL
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
V FORMATION:
It is seen at the end of November. It is a bullish reversal pattern.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position movement weak in November.
2. It is fall down at the beginning of November and rise in the beginning of December.
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Chart no:4.1.5 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF
RELIANCE COMMUNICATION LTD
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
ASCENDING TRIANGLE:
It is seen at the mid of June. It is a bullish pattern.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position strength in the beginning of June.
2. This trend supports the bull operators.
3. The curve recovered at shortly.
Chart no:4.1.6 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF IDEA
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
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Interpretation:
V FORMATION:
It is seen at the beginning of October.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position weak in the end September.
2. This trend supports the bull operators.
3. The curve is reversed in a specified period.
Chart no:4.1.7SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF
STATE BANK OF INDIA
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(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
HEAD AND SHOULDER:
It is seen at the beginning of November.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position gives support in the beginning of November till January.
2. This trend supports the bear operators.
3. The curve is not stable in a specified period.
Chart no:4.1.8 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF
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PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
HEAD AND SHOULDER:
It is seen at the mid of November. It is a bearish pattern.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position weak in beginning of November.
2. This trend supports the bear operators.
3. The curve is not support the market.
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Chart no:4.1.9 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF
ICICI BANK LTD
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
DESCENDING TRIANGLE:
It is seen at the beginning of November.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position weak in the beginning of November.
2. This trend supports the bear operators.
3. The curve is not reversed in a specified period.
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Chart no:4.1.10 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF DLF LTD
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
DESCENDING TRIANGLE:
It is seen at the beginning of January. It is a bearish pattern.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position weak in January to march.
2. This trend supports the bear operators.
3. The curve is not reversed in a specified period.
Chart no:4.1.11 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OFRELIANCE INFRASTRUTURE LTD
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
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Interpretation:
INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER:
It is seen at the mid of july. It indicates the end of bear market and beginning of the
bull market.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position slowly fall down.
2. This trend supports the bull operators.
3. It recovered the position shortly.
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Chart no:4.1.12 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF
GMR INFRASTRUTURE LTD
(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
Interpretation:
V FORMATION
It is seen at the mid of February. It is a bullish pattern.
Recognition criteria
1. The curve position is slowly fall down in the February.
2. This trend supports the bull operators.
3. The curve is reversed in a specified period.
CHAPTER -5
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5.1 FINDINGS
Inference
The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If
the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip.If the share price value of Airtel is in
the position of up trend,it gives a clear signal of sell.the term oversold describes a
security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.this condition is characeried
by an increase in sales and excess of net declines.
Inference
The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If
the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of reliance
communication is in the position of down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term
overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and
the price has to go down.
Inference
The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to
sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of idea
is in the position of uptrend to down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The termoverbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and
the price has to go down.
INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of R is less than +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive
relationship between NSE and SBI . Since r is below +0.5 for an increase in stock return
also.But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock
is moving slower than market movement.
INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of R is 1, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship
between NSE and PNB. Since r is positive it means that as both value are same (often called
an equal correlation) The result shows that the PNB moves in tandem with the market.
INTERPRETATION:
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Since the value of R is +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive
relationship between NSE and ICICI . Since r is +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But
the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is
moving slower than market movement.
Inference
The chart of DLF shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC
moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal
changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend
with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.
Inference
The chart of Reliance Infrastructure shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11
and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a
superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be
used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum
based indicators.
Inference
The chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE shows that a large positive divergence formed in
jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline and the price
level increase in the month of feb-11and it maintain its curve level. While this was a superb
buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in
down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based
indicators.
SUGGESSIONS
Based on the correlation the researcher could find that the r value is equal
to 1 for PNB in banking sector. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.
Based on the correlation the researcher could find that roc curve of DLF is
increased at the end. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.
Based on the correlation the researcher could find that RSI of AIRTEL is
increased at the end. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.
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CONCLUSION
5.2 CONCLUSION
This project was mainly carried out to find out Technical
performance of selected script in the share market. It tried to identify impact of
technical performance over the market. It tries to pick out prime stock in
Telecom,infrastructure and bank which having less risk with good return, by
using few tools, obviously BMA wealth creators is one the company to analysis
the shares .
Perhaps a similar study would be conducted in the other sector or other similar
industry in India to sublime and substantiate the result of the study.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS
Punithavathy Pandian - Security analysis and portfolio management Vikas
Publication Ltd-2010.
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V. Kevin - Security analysis and portfolio management S.Chand Publication Ltd
1995
JOURNALS
Govert E. Bijwaard Maarten C.W. Janssen*Emiel Maasland, early mover advantage
December 22, 2004.
Damodharan .V. S.* and Rengarajan.V A Projection of Best Emerging Bank in
Sultanate of Oman January 2008
Alexander van der Vooren and Floortje Alkemade,Innovation Studies Group,UtrechtUniversity. The di_usion of infrastructure dependent technologies May 2009
WEBSITES
www.nseindia.com
www.tradersedge.com
www.google.com
www.icharts.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.stockchart.com
55
http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.tradersedge.com/http://www.google.com/http://www.icharts.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.stockchart.com/http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.tradersedge.com/http://www.google.com/http://www.icharts.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.stockchart.com/ -
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