Predictive Modeling for Actuaries

By Claude Penland, Associate of theCasualty Actuarial Society

www.PredNews.com

Our plan

• This presentation will provide eight examples of strong industry presentations and articles where actuaries can apply predictive modeling to life insurance, property and casualty insurance and health insurance data.

Example 1

• At the Society of Actuaries’ Annual Meeting, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries discussed Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance.

• Topics included generalized linear modeling, mortality analysis, policyholder behavior and stochastic modeling.

Example 2

• At the Actuaries’ Club of Boston and Hartford/Springfield Joint Meeting, a Chartered Financial Analyst / Fellow of the Society of Actuaries applied Predictive Modeling to Variable Annuity Lapse Rates.

Example 3

• Two Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society presented to the SoCal Actuarial Club on Predictive Modeling for Property-Casualty Insurance.

• This is a substantial presentation on predictive modeling strategies, methodologies and techniques.

Example 4

• Consultants at Towers Watson have written Multiple Dimensions of Pricing Sophistication, which describes five dimensions of property and casualty insurance rating sophistication.

• These are pricing strategy, competitive sensing, rating plan design, modeling approach and data.

Example 5

• PointRight employees recently wrote on Building and Maintaining a Profitable Captive Insurer with Predictive Modeling.

Example 6

• At the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Ratemaking Seminar, a consulting actuary presented on Data Preparation for Predictive Modeling, and described data requirements, types of data variables and various data quality issues.

Example 7

• For the health actuary, More Predictive Modeling of Total Healthcare Costs Using Pharmacy Claims Data: Adherence Dimension and Boosted Regression covers pharmaceutical claims predictive methods.

• It was presented at the American Society of Health Economists Conference.

Example 8

• In Building a Predictive Model: An Example of a Product Recommendation Engine, Intelligent Mining describes a predictive analytics algorithm that could be applied to building an insurance product recommendation engine.

Wrap Up

• Visit www.PredNews.com for the latest news and trends in predictive analytics and modeling

• Thank you!