PORTFOLIOPORTFOLIOCOMMITTEE ON COMMITTEE ON
FINANCEFINANCE
September 2003
INTERNATIONAINTERNATIONAL ECONOMYL ECONOMY
International oil price - monthly averageInternational oil price - monthly average
OECD leading indicators and industrial OECD leading indicators and industrial productionproduction
World Economic Outlook: World Economic Outlook: Real GDPReal GDPAnnual percentage change in real GDP
Actual Projections
2002 2003 2004World 3,0 3,2 4,1
Advanced economies 1,8 1,8 2,9USA 2,4 2,6 3,9Japan 0,2 2,0 1,4Euro area 0,9 0,5 1,9United Kingdom 1,9 1,7 2,4
Developing countries 4,6 5,0 5,6Africa 3,1 3,7 4,8Asia 6,4 6,4 6,5Western hemisphere -0,1 1,1 3,6
Countries in transition 4,2 4,9 4,7Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - September 2003
World Economic Outlook: World Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesConsumer prices
Annual percentage change in consumer pricesActual Projections
2002 2003 2004World 3,5 3,9 3,2
Advanced economies 1,5 1,8 1,3USA 1,6 2,1 1,3Japan -0,9 -0,3 -0,6Euro area 2,3 2,0 1,6United Kingdom 2,2 2,8 2,5
Developing countries 5,3 5,9 4,9Africa 9,3 10,6 7,7Asia 2,0 2,5 2,9Western hemisphere 8,7 10,9 7,0
Countries in transition 11,1 9,7 9,1Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - September 2003
USA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic product
USA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rate
USA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer prices
Japan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic product
Japan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rate
Japan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer prices
Euro area: Real gross domestic productEuro area: Real gross domestic product
Euro area: Unemployment rateEuro area: Unemployment rate
Euro area: Consumer pricesEuro area: Consumer prices
UK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic product
UK: UnemploymentUK: Unemployment
UK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer prices
SADC: InflationSADC: Inflation
Annual percentage change in consumer prices
2001 2002 Jun 2003 Jul 2003 Aug 2003
Africa 13,0 9,3 * * *Angola 152,6 108,9 110,7 * *Botswana 6,6 8,1 12,7 9,2 8,3Lesotho 6,9 12,0 6,4 6,9 *Malawi 27,5 16,1 8,5 8,7 *Mauritius 5,4 6,4 4,5 4,3 3,7Mozambique 9,1 17,1 14,4 13,2 *Namibia 9,3 11,3 8,5 7,1 *Seychelles 6,4 2,0 1,1 5,3 *South Africa 5,7 10,1 6,7 5,2 *Swaziland 7,5 11,7 7,3 6,9 *Tanzania 5,2 4,7 4,4 4,5 *Zambia 21,7 22,2 21,9 20,2 *Zimbabwe 76,7 140,0 365,4 399,5 *
* Not availableSource: National central banks, unpublished Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2003
NATIONAL NATIONAL ECONOMYECONOMY
Real gross domestic productReal gross domestic product
Real gross domestic product by theReal gross domestic product by thesecondary sectorsecondary sector
Real gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditure
Real final consumption expenditureReal final consumption expenditureby householdsby households
Real household disposable incomeReal household disposable income
Household debt as percentage of household Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomedisposable income
Real final consumption expenditure byReal final consumption expenditure bygeneral governmentgeneral government
Real gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formation
Real domestic final demandReal domestic final demand
Change in inventoriesChange in inventories
Gross saving as percentage of grossGross saving as percentage of grossdomestic productdomestic product
Non-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employment
Feb SepFeb Sep2001 20012002 2002
(000’s) (000’s)(000’s)(000’s)
a Total employment 11 83710 83311 393 11 029
Among the employed:Employed in the formal sector SEE survey(excluding agriculture and certain activitiesnot covered in SEE) 4 6764 6504 634 4 679Employed in agriculture 1 3521 0511 538 1 331Employed in the formal sector in activitiesnot covered in SEE 2 002 2 2232 403 2 355Employed in the informal sector 2 6651 8731 767 1 703Employed in domestic service 914916 972875
b Total unemployed (official definition) 4 2404 5254 738 4 837c Total economically active = a + b 16 07715 35816 130 15 866d Total not economically active 11 04412 00611 543 12 118e Total aged 15‑65 years = c + d 27 12127 36527 673 27 984f Official unemployment rate = b * 100/c 26,4%29,5%29,4% 30,5%
Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey
Non-agricultural nominal remunerationNon-agricultural nominal remunerationper workerper worker
Non-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivity
Non-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
All-goods production pricesAll-goods production prices
Overall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIX
Balance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current account
Balance on financial accountBalance on financial account
Financial accountFinancial account
Gross gold and other foreign exchange Gross gold and other foreign exchange reservesreserves
Gross gold and other foreign exchange Gross gold and other foreign exchange reservesreserves
Imports covered by reservesImports covered by reserves
Net open position in foreign currencyNet open position in foreign currency
Average net daily turnover in South African Average net daily turnover in South African foreign exchange marketforeign exchange market
Exchange rates of the randExchange rates of the rand
Real effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the rand
M3 money supplyM3 money supply
Total loans and advances extended toTotal loans and advances extended toprivate sectorprivate sector
Turnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond market
Money-market interest ratesMoney-market interest rates
Yield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bonds
Yield curvesYield curves
Turnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share market
Share prices - all classesShare prices - all classes
Real-estate marketReal-estate market
Revenue of national governmentRevenue of national government
Expenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national government
Deficit of national governmentDeficit of national government
Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement