Download - Petrobras's involvement in Bio Fuels
Recent Developments in Ethanol and Alternative Energy in Brazil
Petrobras’s Involvement in Bio Fuels
Ted HelmsGeneral Manager
PETROBRAS New York Office
Strategic Planning for Strategic Planning for BiofuelsBiofuels
Petrobras MissionPetrobras Mission
Operate in a safe and profitable manner in the oil, gas and energy industry in Brazil and abroad, with social and environmental responsibility, providing products and services that meet client's needs.
Business StrategyBusiness Strategy
Diversify the business portfolio (emphasizing petrochemicals, logistics and commercial operations of new energy products), anchored in the synergy of downstream assets and capabilities;
Develop, coordinate and implement activities related to energy efficiency and renewable energy at Petrobras companies and to final consumers.
Selective entry into renewable energy projects.
Corporate Target for Carbon CreditsCorporate Target for Carbon Credits
Carbon credits generated in renewable energy projects 1,200 million CO2by 2010.
8691004
11321271 1336
1500 1540 1493
1686 1722 1769 1806 1802 1761 1700
2300
2060
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010
Oil Consumption & Production Forecast in Brazil (TBPD)Oil Consumption & Production Forecast in Brazil (TBPD)
52%52% 91%91% 100100%%Production/
Consumption
Petrobras’ ProductionBrazilian Consumption
114%114%70%70%
(*) Petrobras' estimate considering an average growth of 2.6 % per year
1684
1783
Self-Sufficiency
222 226300 307 323 337226 235 246 253
732 775 874 894
100 95121 132
258 255181 223
457 584
196 201
127 117
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2003 2004 BP 2004-10 BP 2006-10
LPG Gasoline Naphta Diesel + QAVFuel Oil Others Natural Gas
Dynamic market for oil products and natural gas in BrazilThous. boepd 2010
1,986
2,480
1,881
2,644
+3,8% p.y.+4,9% p.y.
Product Consumption in the Domestic MarketProduct Consumption in the Domestic Market
Does not include own refineries consumption
Diesel57.4%
Gasoline (E25)33.9%
NGV2.3%
Hydrous Ethanol6.3%
Fonte: ANP and Gás Brasil (2004)
AnhydrousAnhydrousEthanolEthanol
8.5%8.5%
Ethanol MarketEthanol Market--share:share:
6,3% + 8,5% 6,3% + 8,5% ⇒⇒ 14.8%14.8%
Fuel Consumption by Vehicle in Brazil Fuel Consumption by Vehicle in Brazil
NGV5.5%
Gasoline (E25)79.7%
Hydrous Ethanol14.8%
Fonte: ANP and Gás Brasil (2004)
Consumption by Light Vehicle in Brazil Consumption by Light Vehicle in Brazil
Ethanol MarketEthanol Market--share:share:
14.8% + 19.92% 14.8% + 19.92% ⇒⇒ 34.7%34.7%
ANHIDROUS
ETHANOL
19.92%
40,84%
49,46%
9,70%
Anhydrous, Hydrous and Neutral Sugar Cachaça, Sweet and Animal Feed
Anhydrous and Hydrous Ethanol => 17 Billions liters
Sugar Cane Crop Profile 2005 Sugar Cane Crop Profile 2005
The Beginning: 1925The Beginning: 1925
Fuel Ethanol Program EvolutionFuel Ethanol Program Evolution
Brazilian ExperienceBrazilian ExperienceBrazilian Experience
Program for oil imports reduction Environmental Benefits
70’s 80´S 90´S
EthanolProgram
Implanted(BLENDS)
Gasohol and Ethanol Cars(2nd oil shock)
Program of Emission Controls
(PROCONVE)Gasohol and Flex fuel Cars
00´S
RenewableHydrogen
Future
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
jan/
04 feb
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan/
05 feb
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan/
06 feb
mar
Light Vehicles Sales
FFV Gasoline Diesel Oil Ethanol
Evolution of Evolution of FlexfuelFlexfuel Productionl Productionl
LIGHT VEHICLES FLEET(thousand units)
9,08810,463
11,399 12,01912,755
13,506 14,075 14,439 14,680 14,431
3,716
3,4713,221
2,9722,712
2,4492,230 1,996 1,820 1,678
499
546597
632686
734764 782 810
843
335 1,108
1,004807626439288
1435718
9
5
44
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Gasoline Ethanol Diesel Oil CNG FFV
FFV since 2003CNG vehicles
Gradual Replacement of Conventional EnginesGradual Replacement of Conventional Engines
Ethanol: Learning CurveEthanol: Learning Curve
Trend (Rotterdam Gasoline Prices)
Prof. Goldemberg, Coelho, Nastari and Lucon - USP
Trend(Anhydrous Ethanol Prices)
More than 400 types of Sugar-Cane
Ethanol ProductionEthanol Production
Brazilian Ethanol Production
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
16.000
17.000
18.00080
/81
81/8
2
82/8
3
83/8
4
84/8
5
85/8
6
86/8
7
87/8
8
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
Crop Year
thou
sand
(m³/t
on)
Anhydrous Hydrous Total
2006/07Estimations
North and Central America
37%
Europe
9.8%
South America
38%
Asia
16.2%
Ethanol global market – 46.5 Billions LitersEthanol global market – 46.5 Billions Liters
Brazil35%
Brazil35%
A New Opportunity for BusinessA New Opportunity for BusinessA New Opportunity for Business
How much the production can be increased to attend the demand with social responsibility?
Facts about Ethanol Market in 2005Facts about Ethanol Market in 2005
Ethanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billions LitersEthanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billions Liters
Ethanol as a Fuel is 67% of total ethanol productionEthanol as a Fuel is 67% of total ethanol production
Today the ethanol consumption is 2.6% of gasoline MKTToday the ethanol consumption is 2.6% of gasoline MKT
10% of ethanol in gasoline will represent 118 Billions Lt10% of ethanol in gasoline will represent 118 Billions Lt
608 x 103 KCAL
598 x 103 KCAL
512 x 103 KCAL
1718 x 103 KCAL
1 Ton Sugar Cane
SUGAR 153 KG
BAGASSE(50% UMIDADE)
276 KG
LEAVES (*)(15% HUMIDY)
165 KG
1 Ton-Field1718 x 103 KCAL
1.2 boe
1 boe1,386 x 103 KCAL
~=
Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billions LitersEthanol global market is 46.5 Billions Liters
RAW MATERIALProduction / ha
(kg)Quantity of Ethanol/ha
Energy out/Energy
in
SUGAR CANE 85,000 7.080 liter 8,3
CORN 10,000 4.000 liter 1,3 - 1,8
RawRaw Material Material ComparisonComparison
LandLand use in use in BrazilBrazil
851370180
6197
597,626390
• Total country• Native Amazon Forest• Secondary Amazon Forest and Others • Native Forests• Pasture• Temporary Crops• Permanent Crops• Available land • Available land with low impact (*)
Area (Mha)Type
Source: FAO, 2002 and EMBRAPA (*)
Ethanol Logistic to Export Ethanol Logistic to Export
Marine Terminal Rio de Janeiro
Marine Terminal São Paulo
New Ethanol Pipeline (800 km)
New Water Wayfor Ethanol Ethanol Export
8.0 Million m3 in 2012
HH--Bio: New Technology to Produce BioBio: New Technology to Produce Bio--dieseldiesel
• H-Bio: refining process that utilizes vegetable oils as an input, in order to obtain diesel oil
• Hydrogenation of a blend of diesel and vegetable oils
• Main benefits :
• Doesn’t produce waste requiring special disposal, much simpler logistics than biodiesel’s;
• Complements the biomass usage program in the country’s energy framework
• Allows the use of vegetable oils from a variety of sources;
• Produces a higher quality of diesel oil;
•H-Bio expected to lead to reduction of 10% of diesel imports
BifuelBifuel ProductionProduction
Complementary and not competitive processes
Agribusiness
Farming
Seeds
or or
or
Ethanol
Methanol
Glycerin + Others
Biodiesel
B2 or B5mixture
orDiesel
Distributors
DieselRefinery
Hydrogen Diesel Fractions
Stations
ProcessedOil
Crushing
Transerestification
Biodiesel Biodiesel -- Brazilian seedsBrazilian seeds
Castor oil seed Sunflower Palm CottonSoy
Oil contents
47% 42% 18% 20% 15%
2005 Production in Brazil (m3/yr)
90,000 23,000 5,600,000 151,000 315,000
Oil yield (kg/ha)
705 630 540 4,000 450
Crop yield (kg/ha)
1,500 1,500 3,000 20,000 3,000
Future Markets for biodiesel
2005to
2007(2% allowable)
2008to
2012(2% demanding)
(5% allowable)
From 2012on
(5% demanding)
Brazilian market
0 - 840 million liters
Petrobras market share
0 - 200 million liters
Brazilian market
0,8 - 2,5 billion liters
Petrobras market share
200-600 million liters
Brazilian market
2,5 billion liters
Petrobras market share
600 million liters
Law 11.097/2005 – established minimal percentage for biodiesel mix in diesel
• Petrobras target for 2010: Production of 8,200 bpd of Biodiesel
Business Strategies