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Overview: The use of U.S.
population projections in global and
environmental change applications
Brian O’Neill
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Workshop on Scenarios of U.S. Demographic Change
Rockville, MD; June 23-24, 2014
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Understand key user needs for population
scenarios, in order to guide the scenario
production effort.
User Needs Session Goal
Highlight agency survey results
Example applications at different scales
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Relevant characteristics of applications of
population projections
Time scale
Short term (<20), medium term (20-50), long term (50+)
Spatial scale
Global, national, regional, state, county, grid cell; ecoregion, watershed, …
Sector
Health, water, energy, agriculture, land use, labor/economy, natural disasters, …
Population characteristics
Size, density, age, sex, urban/suburban/rural, income, education, health status, …
Types of projections
Probabilistic, business as usual, high/low scenarios, variants, integrated scenarios, …
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Agency Use/Production of Demographic
Scenarios
Ranking
Number of Agencies (offices or departments)
Very Likely 23
Likely 41
Possible 118
Very Unlikely 250
Key Agency Users:
DOC, DOE, DOI, DOT, EPA, HHS, HUD, NASA,
SSA, USDA, and USGS
Source: ICF, Workshop Background Material
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Predominantly medium- to
long-term
Final Year of Projections # of Projects
2025-2040 21
2041-2060* 16
2061-2100 13
Unknown 3
*Note: All projects listed in the 2041-2060 cohort have projections 2050 or later
Geographical Coverage # of Projects
International/Global 6
U.S. 31
State/Regional 12
Unknown 4
Predominantly national scale
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Predominantly sub-state
geographic resolution
Predominantly from US
Census Bureau
Scale of Geography # of Projects
U.S. 18
State/Regional 3
City/County/District 23
Unknown 9
Source of Base Data # of Projects
Primarily Census 27
Mix of Census and Other Sources 9
Other Source 7
Unknown 10
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Example: Global projections DOE Integrated Assessment Modeling
DOE Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)
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Example: Global projections DOE Integrated Assessment Modeling
Wise et al., 2009.
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-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Em
issi
on
s
(billio
n t
on
s o
f c
arb
on
/ye
ar)
Aging, 2050
Aging, 2100
Urbanization,
2050
Urbanization,
2100
O’Neill et al., PNAS, 2010
Influence of urbanization and
aging on CO2 emissions
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Example: National projections NREL Renewable Electricity Futures Study
US Census Bureau state projections Projections of electric vehicle population.
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NCAR Projection, 2100
National Projection
Regional Projection
Gridded Projection
Example: National projections NCAR Spatial Projections and Exposure
Jones & O’Neill, 2013
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Po
pu
latio
n (
Mill
ion
s)
Distance (km)
Population by Distance
to the Coast Florida, 2100
A2, High Pop. Growth
EPA
Model
(ICLUS)
NCAR
model
IIASA
model
Current
Jones & O’Neill, 2013
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Example: Regional/state projections USDA Southern Forest Futures Project
County population Forest land use Urban land use
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The Third National Climate Assessment
Goal
• Enhance the ability of the United States
to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to
changes in the global environment.
Vision
• Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and
sustained process for assessing and
communicating scientific knowledge of
the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities
associated with a changing global climate
in support of decision-making across the
United States.
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Sectors
• Water Resources
• Energy Supply and Use
• Transportation
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity
• Human Health
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Regions & Biogeographical Cross-Cuts
Coasts
Oceans and Marine Resources
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Population and Housing Scenarios from ICLUS
Bierwagen et al., 2010.
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User Needs Session, Monday p.m.
Application of state projections David Egan-Robertson
Application to climate change impacts and
vulnerability
Ben Preston
Application to U.S. climate and health John Balbus
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Emissions Aging,
Urbanization
Labor Productivity
Consumption Behavior
Economic Growth
Production Structure
Demographic Effects on
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Climate Change Impacts in the United States
- http://nca2014.globalchange.gov -
Third National Climate Assessment
@usgcrp
facebook.com/usgcrp
#NCA2014