Download - No Purple Unicorns in Austin May 2016
Richard [email protected]
(512) 585-8231
Looking for Purple Unicorns
in Austin: Examining the Skills Gap
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Economics:
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
1. What happens in the rest of the world matters (exports)!
2. Demographic shifts are changing the face of Texas; where we live, what we look like, where CLF growth will occur
3. Job opportunities differ by: region, industry, occupation, wage, education, and by skill set. The Triangle vs. Rural Texas
4. Texas economic recovery was driven by the oil & gas supply chain
5. Earnings, wealth & income are becoming stagnant & bifurcated.
6. Information technology is not an occupation, industry or major. It is a ubiquitous knowledge and skill set that permeates all jobs
7. Education Matters…But It’s all about Skills: Technical, Soft skills, (Workplace Essentials), Digital Information Processing Skills (DIPS)
8. Purple Unicorns – In search of the perfect employee right out of the box: Right Skills, Right Price, Right Experience, Right Location
Texas Labor Market Trends
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1. Infrastructure demand increases – congestion, housing prices (G)2. Job growth rates exceed Population/CLF labor force growth (G)3. URates consistently below historical regional & state averages &
natural rate – low Urate implies general labor shortages (G)4. More job postings than new hires – business posts jobs that they
cannot fill (ceteris paribus) (G/O)5. Rising wage rates for specific occupations and skill sets (O)6. Disproportionate occupational demand vs. status quo (O)7. Critical occupations key to multiple/high growth industries (O)8. The Skills Economy – key skills demanding wage premium (O)9. Social Demand Model – society (e.g. business) tell us that there
are insufficient workers to meet expectations (G/O)
A Matter of Supply and Demand: You know there are possible labor shortages when…
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
County (Major City) Change
1. Harris (Houston) 429,841
2. Dallas (Dallas) 179,921
3. Bexar (San Antonio) 174,764
4. Tarrant (Ft. Worth) 165,970
5. Travis (Austin) 146,127
6. Ft Bend (Sugarland) 125,506
7. Collin (Plano) 125,498
8. Denton (Denton) 113,650
9. Williamson (Round Rock) 82,026
10. Montgomery (Woodlands) 78,223
11. Hidalgo (McAllen) 63,161
Texas Counties Population Absolute Growth 2010-15
County (Major City) Change
12. Hays (San Marcos) 36,464
13. El Paso (El Paso) 31,955
14. Brazoria (Pearland) 31,814
15. Galveston (Galveston) 29,687
16. Midland (Midland) 24,087
17. Ector (Odessa) 22,358
18. Bell (Killeen) 21,963
19. Comal (Seguin) 19,749
20. Nueces (Corpus Christi) 19,401
21. Brazos (College Station) 19,351
22. Lubbock (Lubbock) 19,197
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Establishing the
Commute Shed for
Travis County
Workers
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
**63,398 (52%) of 122,287 net job growth in Travis County filled by outside workers
Travis County Cross-commuting Complicates Recruiting
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
MSA 2016 MSA 2016Amarillo 3.0 Texas 4.5Austin-Round Rock 3.1 Wichita Falls 4.5Lubbock 3.3 El Paso 4.8College Station-Bryan 3.4 Victoria 4.8San Antonio 3.7 Laredo 4.9Abilene 3.8 Houston-Sugar Land 4.9D/FW-Arlington CSA 3.8 United States 5.1Sherman-Denison 3.8 Longview 5.4Waco 3.9 Corpus Christi 5.6Midland 4.3 Odessa 6.1Tyler 4.3 Beaumont-Pt Arthur 6.4Texarkana 4.3 Brville-Harlingen 6.9Killeen-Temple 4.4 McAllen-Edinburg 7.6San Angelo 4.4 Source: TWC/LMCI TLMR April 2016
Low Unemployment: Texas MSA March 2016
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Time Frame Austin Texas
CLF Labor force
Mar 2010-2016 19.0% (3.2% ann) 9.4% (1.6% ann)
Mar 2012-2016 11.9% (3.0% ann) 5.3% (1.3% ann)
Mar 2014-2016 4.7% (2.4% ann) 1.9% (1.0% ann)
Mar 2015-2016 3.7% (3.7% ann) 2.9% (2.0% ann)
CES Payroll Jobs
Mar 2010-2016 27.1% (4.5% ann) 16.2% (2.7% ann)
Mar 2012-2016 18.9% (4.7% ann) 10.8% (2.7% ann)
Mar 2014-2016 8.4% (4.2% ann) 4.5% (2.2% ann)
Mar 2015-2016 4.1% (4.1% ann) 1.5% (1.5% ann)
A Hot Market: Austin MSA & Texas Labor Force and Payroll Job Growth
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NAICS Industry Mar 2016ABS CHG Feb-Mar
ABS CHG Mar-Mar
Y-O-Y PER CHG
Total Nonagricultural 983,300 4,900 38,700 4.1%
Goods-Producing 115,600 300 4,100 3.7%
Service-Providing 867,700 4,600 34,600 4.2%
WH & Retail Trade 153,500 200 8,400 5.8%
Leisure and Hospitality 119,700 1,500 7,500 6.7%
Educ. & Health Services 117,000 1,600 7,100 6.5%
Mining & Construction 58,900 500 4,800 8.9%
Prof. & Business Services 162,200 -200 4,700 3.0%
Government 175,800 800 2,100 1.2%
Financial Activities 54,700 600 1,800 3.4%
Other Services 41,600 300 1,800 4.5%
Information 27,100 -100 800 3.0%
Transport & Utilities 16,100 -100 400 2.5%
Manufacturing 56,700 -200 -700 -1.2%
Austin MSA Industry Growth March 2015-16 YOY (SA)
38,500 (2012-13)41,800 (2013-14) 37,700 (2014-15)
Industry 2015Q3 ABS CHG AWW 2015Professional & technical services 90,493 22,433 $1,671 Food services & drinking places 91,512 17,582 $371 Administrative/support services 58,840 7,391 $760 Ambulatory health care services 41,374 6,305 $1,180 Specialty trade contractors 30,901 4,989 $969 Construction of buildings 11,563 4,140 $1,255 Social assistance & child care 22,788 3,959 $568 Computer/electronics manuf. 29,558 3,857 $2,294 Civil engineering construction 13,474 2,499 $1,131 Food and beverage stores 19,896 2,429 $518 Hospitals 25,173 2,206 $1,118 Data processing & hosting services 4,333 2,120 $1,883 Credit intermediation activities 17,438 2,117 $1,440 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 12,771 2,071 $1,053
A Tale of 2 Economies: Austin Industry Growth 2012-15
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Industry (+22,435) 2012Q3 2015Q3 ABS CHG Ann. $$$Computer systems design services 18,431 31,442 13,011 $104,676Mgmt. & technical consulting 11,289 15,632 4,343 $72,540Other prof. & technical services 4,128 5,280 1,152 $46,488Accounting and bookkeeping services 4,920 6,024 1,104 $58,604Legal services 7,553 8,469 916 $97,552Scientific research and development services 3,649 4,250 601 $86,944Advertising & PR services 3,104 3,622 518 $79,924Architectural/engineering services 14,170 14,603 433 $87,828Specialized design services 814 1,171 357 $59,384
A Detailed look at Austin MSA Professional & Technical Services
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Occupation (scenario: 2012-2015 growth of +22,435) Jobs
PCT Female
PCT minority Education
Software Developers, Apps 1,483 22.7% 38.4% Bachelor's
Computer Systems Analysts 1,215 22.4% 24.6% Bachelor's
Computer User Support Specialist 1,122 29.6% 26.7% Some college
Software Developers, Systems 1,084 22.7% 38.4% Bachelor's
Office Clerks, General 1,007 82.8% 22.4% H.S. or GED
Computer Programmers 851 21.4% 23.1% Bachelor's
Sales Reps, All Other Services 758 33.3% 15.3% H.S. or GED
Accountants & Auditors 724 61.5% 21.6% Bachelor's
Network Systems Administrators 590 18.9% 17.7% Bachelor's
General & Operations Managers 553 27.2% 14.1% Bachelor's
Business Ops Specialists, NEC 547 56.8% 24.4% H.S. or GED
Customer Service Reps 521 66.0% 28.7% H.S. or GED
Management Analysts 457 37.4% 19.2% Bachelor's
Occupational Impact of Job Growth in Professional & Tech Services
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Occupation Group Occupation 2016
Healthcare Practitioners Registered Nurses 14,372
Computer & Math Occupations Software Developers, Applications 9,239
Sales and Related Occupations Retail Salespersons 5,433
Sales and Related Occupations Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 4,349
Computer & Math Occupations Web Developers 4,117
Office and Admin Support Customer Service Representatives 4,018
Computer & Math Occupations Network & Computer Sys Admins 3,403
Management Occupations Marketing Managers 3,391
Computer & Math Occupations Computer User Support Specialists 3,093
Computer & Math Occupations Computer Systems Analysts 3,007
Sales and Related Occupations Sales Representatives, Services, NEC 2,788
Office & Admin Support Occupations Supervisors, Office & Admin Support 2,625
Business & Financial Operations Management Analysts 2,463
Food Prep & Serving Related Supervisors, Food Prep Workers 2,400
Austin-Round Rock MSA Job Listings: April 2015-16
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Occupational Grouping% of Online Job Postings
% of Texas Employment
Postings per Existing Job
Computer and mathematical 11.2% 3.0% 3.8
Healthcare practitioners & technicians 12.9% 5.2% 2.5
Management occupations 9.0% 4.2% 2.1
Arts, design, entertainment & media 1.9% 1.0% 1.9
Architecture and engineering 3.4% 2.1% 1.6
Business and financial operations 6.6% 4.7% 1.4
Community and social services 1.2% 0.9% 1.3
Installation, maintenance, and repair 4.9% 4.3% 1.2
Sales occupations 11.1% 10.8% 1.0
Healthcare support 2.6% 2.5% 1.0
Transportation & material moving 7.0% 7.0% 1.0
Building & grounds maintenance 2.0% 2.9% 0.7
Office and administrative support 11.4% 17.1% 0.7Legal 0.4% 0.7% 0.6
Texas Job Postings vs. Total Texas Employment
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
$2,144$2,465 $2,481
$2,745 $2,733 $2,819 $2,943
$2,774 (29.4%)
$4,112 $4,363$4,767
$5,141 $5,013 $5,037$5,215
$4,869 (18.4%)
$3,309$3,584 $3,448 $3,550
$3,758 $3,880 $3,797 $3,948$4,139 (25.1%)
$6,584
$7,150
$7,657$7,892 $7,789 $7,934
$8,162 (24%)
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All Workers: HS or GED All Workers: Bachelor's
Monthly Earnings for All Workers vs. New Hires Austin MSA
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
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Unemployment Rate Mar 2016
Austin MSA = 3.1%Texas = 4.5%U.S. = 5.1%
Available Labor Pool: CLF minus payroll jobsMar 2016 113,221
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
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Austin Unemployed vs. Projected Job Growth
19,666
Mar 2016: 34,215
38,700
29,429
Job Growth Scenarios:2.0% = 19,6663.0% = 29,4992015-16 = 38,7002014-15 = 37,700
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
“It is an employee’s market. We are definitely seeing a labor shortage in Austin and central Texas. I see it only getting worse.” John Cyrier, president, Sabre Commercial
“We have shortages across industries and at all skill levels.” Bill Hammond, Texas Association of Business
“Even if every graduate of Austin-area schools were employed locally, employers would still be facing a shortfall of at least 1,000 workers in core technical positions annually.” Austin Technology Council
“It is definitely a war for regional talent,”Sherri Manning, VP Q2 Holdings Inc.
"Most people we want are employed somewhere already. We don't get a lot of applications coming in." Gowalla CEO Josh Williams
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
So what role do skills play in worker preparation and why is a skills framework valuable?
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Bachelor’s degree: What you study matters!
4 digit CIP major (100+ grads) $$$
Petroleum Engineering $89,098Chemical Engineering $74,181
Mechanical Engineering $63,534
Registered Nursing/Administration $62,276
Construction Engineering Techs $61,474 Industrial Production Techs $61,188
Rehab & Therapeutic Professions $22,154 International Relations and National Security Studies $21,606 Neurobiology & Neurosciences $21,590 Religious Education $21,339
Ecology, Evolution & Pop Biology $21,112
Health/Medical Prep Programs $19,577
4 digit CIP major (100+ grads) $$$
Petroleum Engineering $89,579
Chemical Engineering $67,830
Registered Nursing/Administration $58,387
Mechanical Engineering $57,918
Mechanical Engineering Tech $56,427
Construction Engineering Tech $53,593Radio, Television, and Digital Communication $23,423
Religion/Religious Studies $23,085 Dance $23,042
Dramatic/Theatre Arts/Stagecraft $20,798 Anthropology $20,661 Zoology/Animal Biology $20,247
Highest and lowest post exit program majors 2014 (+$69,521)
Highest and lowest post exit program majors 2009 (+$66,156)
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Highest and Lowest Paying Occupationsby Education Level
(OES survey of employed workers)
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Educational Level Highest Paying Lowest Paying
No formal educationTile & Marble
Setters$38,980 Dishwashers $18,780
HS diploma/GEDElevator Installers
& Repairers$78,620
Fast Food Prep Worker
$18,410
Some College, No DegreeSupervisor, Police
& Detectives$80,930
Recreation Workers
$22,620
Certificate/Award/LicensePower
Distributors & Dispatchers
$78,240Manicurists and
Pedicurists$19,620
Associate's degreeAir Traffic
Controllers$122,340
Dietetic Technicians
$25,780
Bachelor's degreeArchitectural &
Engineering Mgrs$130,620
Reporters & Correspondents
$36,000
Master's degreeNurse
Anesthetists$153,780
Rehabilitation Counselors
$34,380
PhD/Professional degreePhysicians and
Surgeons$187,200
Criminal Justice Professors
$57,200
There is a wide range of pay across occupations at each educational level
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
The Argument for Skills over Occupational Titles: Job Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago
Job Title Job Title
1. Videogame Tester 11. Cyber Security Specialist
2. Market Researcher Data Miner 12. Product Blogger
3. Bioinformatics Specialist 13. Social Media Manager
4. Healthcare Applications Analyst 14. Cyborg Anthropologist
5. Big Data Integration Engineer 15. Usability Engineer
6. Chief Listening Officer 16. Chief Sustainability Officer
7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. User Experience Designer
8. E-commerce specialist 18. Mobile App Developer
9. Search Engine Optimization Manager 19. Customer Onboard Specialist
10. Behavioral Analytics Specialist 20. Energy Manager
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Pool of PotentialJob Candidates
The Hiring Cube: The Employer PerspectiveAligning Individual Capabilities with Employer Expectations
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Laureate International Universities
NSSB Employability Knowledge and Skills
Mind Tools
Communication Listening & Speaking Collaboration
Teamwork Leading/Building Consensus Creative thinking
Autonomous Learning Using social skills Personal accountability
Apply knowledge to practice
Gathering/analyzing information Interpersonalnegotiation
Leadership Analyzing and solving problems Conflict resolution
Entrepreneurial spirit Making decisions & judgments Adaptability/Flexibility
Global mindset Organizing and planning Being inclusionary
Capacity to adjust to new situations
Using IT & communications technology
Clarity of communications
Adaptability Coaching/mentoring
Working in teams
A Mixed Bag of Soft Skills All Workers Must Have to Succeed
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Common Sense Soft Skills from employer interviews:
*Be personable*Don’t be a “drama queen”*Don’t be a “game player”*Contribute to a positive environment*Ability to develop rapport with clients
and colleagues*Have and use common sense*Be a Socratic thinker*Be clean, take care of hygiene
Education with a Purpose
D. Canadian Digital Information Processing Skills (DIPS)
1. Communicate information Share DI with others
2. Create information Generate new digital content by adapting DI
3. Apply information Use DI in various formats to perform tasks
4. Assess information Judge the quality, relevance & validity of DI
5. Integrate information Analyze, combine and summarize DI
6. Organize information Decode, restructure and protect DI
7. Access information Locate, select and retrieve DI
8. Determine information needs Recognize, define and articulate DI needs
9. Input information Identify, record and store DI to facilitate use
C. Digital Technical Skills/Software – Hardware Use
B. Transversal Skills /Problem Solving Skills
A. Foundational Skills/Gateway Basic Literacy and Numeracy Skills
Technology Skills Touch All Occupations and Jobs
Education with a Purpose
Sample DIPS Learning Objectives1. Behave and act ethically in handling information
2. Work on multiple digital tasks simultaneously
3. Navigate through complex information-architecture4. Combine information from different sources5. Classify information for ease of storage, retrieval and use6. Evaluate the quality and trustworthiness of information7. Comply with employer‘s digital policy8. Secure personal information against identity threats9. Backup and store digital contents10. Use project management software11. Use digital systems and tools for collaborating12. Connect digital systems and tools to the Internet13. Generate new knowledge using digital information14. Apply information for designing & authoring digital contents
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Picking the Right Applicant: Evaluation Matrix
#1
#2
#3#4
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
Career Skill (MONEY+ Payscale) PCT$$
1. SAS stat package 6.1%
2. Data mining/warehousing 5.1%
3. Search engine marketing 5.0%
4. Data modeling 5.0%
5. Contract negotiation 5.0%
6. Software development 4.9%
7. Strategic project mgmt. 4.4%
8. Strategic planning 4.3%
9. Technical product sales 4.3%
10. Customer service metrics 4.3%
11. Financial analysis 4.0%
21 Most Valuable Career Skills Earning Pay Premium
Career Skill PCT $$
12. Risk control/mgmt. 3.9%
13. SAP material mgmt. 3.9%
14. Business analysis 3.8%
15. IT security/infrastructure 3.7%
16. LEAN manufacturing 3.6%
17. Business Forecasting 3.5%
18. Health/clinical education 3.4%
19. CAD/CAM 3.4%
20. Systems troubleshooting 3.3%
21. New business development 3.0%
(source: MONEY + PayScale)
Looking for Purple Unicorns in Austin
1. Demonstrates ability to articulate all of the above,
including examples of concrete skills and abilities.
2. Anticipation of future skill needs. The person seems to
have other skills that might someday be useful to the
company.
3. Experience in the industry; have you done this before,
especially in related job titles and work activities.
4. Demeanor indicates good Workplace Essentials;
especially the ability to get along with others,
demonstrated by experience or general attitude.
5. More education is better. Degrees indicate broader
knowledge of the field of study … commitment to learning
Confessions of a hiring authority:What we’re really thinking!
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