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MASSACHUSETTS CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS

Researchers from the Northeast Climate Science Center at the University of Massachusetts

Amherst developed downscaled projections for changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea

level rise for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The Executive Office of Energy and

Environmental Affairs has provided support for these projections to enable municipalities,

industry, organizations, state government and others to utilize a standard, peer-reviewed set of

climate change projections that show how the climate is likely to change in Massachusetts

through the end of this century.

Temperature and Precipitation Projections

The temperature and precipitation climate change projections are based on simulations from

the latest generation of climate models1 from the International Panel on Climate Change and

scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions.2 The models were carefully selected from a

larger ensemble of climate models based on their ability to provide reliable climate information

for the Northeast U.S., while maintaining diversity in future projections that capture some of

the inherent uncertainty in modeling climate variables like precipitation. The medium (RCP 4.5)

and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios were chosen for possible pathways of future greenhouse

gas emissions. A moderate scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions assumes a peak around

mid-century, which then declines rapidly over the second half of the century, while the highest

scenario assumes the continuance of the current emissions trajectory.

Fourteen climate models have been run with 2 emission scenarios each, which lead to 28

projections. The values cited in the tables below are based on the 10-90th percentiles across the

28 projections, so they bracket the most likely scenarios. For simplicity, we use the terms

“…expected to…,” and “…will be…,” but recognize that these are estimates based on model

scenarios and are not predictive forecasts. The statewide projections comprising county- and

basin-level information are derived by statistically downscaling the climate model results.3 They

represent the best estimates that we can currently provide for a range of anticipated changes in

greenhouse gases. Note that precipitation projections are generally more uncertain than

temperature.

1These latest generation of climate models are included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

(CMIP5), which formed the basis of projections summarized in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013). 2 Future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are typically expressed as “Representative Concentration Pathways”

(RCPs). They indicate emissions trajectories that would lead to certain levels of radiative forcing by 2100, relative to the pre-industrial state of the atmosphere; RCP4.5 equates to +4.5W m

-2, and RCP 8.5 would be +8.5W m

-2. In

effect, they represent different pathways that society may or may not follow, to reduce emissions through climate change mitigation measures. 3 The Local Constructed Analogs (LOCA) method (Pierce et al., 2014) was used for the statistical downscaling of the

statewide projections.

The downscaled temperature and precipitation projections for the Commonwealth are

provided at three geographic scales (Table 1) for annual and seasonal temporal scales (Table 2),

and can be accessed through the Massachusetts Climate Change Clearinghouse website

(www.massclimatechange.org). The statewide projections are included in this guidebook, but

temperature and precipitation projections at each of the Commonwealth’s major basins are

accessible on the website and as a supplemental PDF to this guide.

These climate projections are provided to help municipal officials, state agency staff, land

managers, and others to identify future hazards related to, or exacerbated by changing climatic

conditions. For the Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) program participants, we

recommend using climate projections downscaled to the major basin scale (Table 1) as there

are regional differences across several climate indicators (Table 3). These projections can help

MVP communities to think through how future hazards in their community may change, given

projected changes in temperature and precipitation.

Regardless of geographic scale, rising temperatures, changing precipitation, and extreme

weather will continue to affect the people and resources of the Commonwealth throughout the

21st century. A first step in becoming more climate-resilient is to identify the climate changes

your community will be exposed to, the impacts and risks to critical assets, functions,

vulnerable populations arising from these changes, the underlying sensitivities to these types of

changes, and the background stressors that may exacerbate overall vulnerability.

Table 1: Geographic scales available for use for Massachusetts temperature and precipitation projections

Geographic Scale Definition

Statewide Massachusetts

County Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester

Major basins4 Blackstone, Boston Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod, Charles, Chicopee,

Connecticut, Deerfield, Farmington, French, Housatonic, Hudson, Ipswich, Merrimack, Millers, Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay, Nashua, North Coastal, Parker, Quinebaug, Shawsheen, South Coastal, Sudbury-Assabet-Concord (SuAsCo), Taunton, Ten Mile, Westfield, and Islands (presented here as Martha’s Vineyard basin and Nantucket basin)

Table 2: Definition of seasons as applied to temporal scales used for temperature and precipitation projections

Season Definition

Winter December-February

Spring March-May

Summer June-August

Fall September-November

4 Many municipalities fall within more than one basin, so it is advised to use the climate projections for the basin

that contains the majority of the land area of the municipality.

http://www.massclimatechange.org/

Table 3: List and definitions of projected temperature indicators

Climate Variable

Climate Indicator Definition

Temperature

Average temperature Average annual or seasonal temperature expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (⁰F).

Maximum temperature Maximum annual or seasonal temperature expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (⁰F).

Minimum temperature Minimum annual or seasonal temperature expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (⁰F).

Days with Tmax > 90 ⁰F Number of days when daily maximum temperature exceeds 90⁰F.



Days with Tmin < 32 ⁰F Number of days when daily minimum temperature is below 32 ⁰F.

Days with Tmin < 0 ⁰F Number of days when daily minimum temperature is below 0 ⁰F.

Heating degree-days (base 65 ⁰F)

Heating degree-days (HDD) are a measure of how much and for how long outside air temperature was lower than a specific base temperature. HDD are the difference between the average daily temperature and 65°F. For example, if the mean temperature is 30°F, we subtract the mean from 65 and the result is 30 heating degree-days for that day. HDD serves as a proxy that captures energy consumption required to heat buildings, and is used in utility planning and building design.

5

Cooling degree-days (base 65 ⁰F)

Cooling degree days (CDD) are a measure of how much and for how long outside air temperature was higher than a specific base temperature. CDD are the difference between the average daily temperature and 65°F. For example, if the temperature mean is 90°F, we subtract 65 from the mean and the result is 25 cooling degree-days for that day. CDD serves as a proxy that captures energy consumption required to cool buildings, and is used in utility planning and building design.

6

Growing degree-days (base 50 ⁰F)

Growing degree days (GDD) are a measure of heat accumulation that can be correlated to express crop maturity (plant development). GDD is computed by subtracting a base temperature of 50°F from the average of the maximum and minimum temperatures for the day. Minimum temperatures less than 50°F are set to 50, and maximum temperatures greater than 86°F are set to 86. These substitutions indicate that no appreciable growth is detected with temperatures lower than 50° or greater than 86°.

7

5 For seasonal or annual projections, HDD are summed for the period of interest. For example, for winter HDD, one

would sum the HDD for December 1 through February 28. Degree-days are not the equivalent of calendar days and thus why it is possible to have more than 365 degree-days. 6 For seasonal or annual projections, CDD are summed for the period of interest. For example, for summer CDD,

one would sum the CDD for June 1 through August 31. Degree-days are not the equivalent of calendar days and thus why it is possible to have more than 365 degree-days. 7 Definition adapted from National Weather Service. Degree-days are not the equivalent of calendar days and thus

why it is possible to have more than 365 degree-days.

Table 4: List and definitions of projected precipitation indicators

Climate Variable

Climate Indicator Definition

Precipitation

Total precipitation Total annual or seasonal precipitation expressed in inches.

Days with precipitation >1 inch Extreme precipitation events measured in days with precipitation eclipsing one inch.

Days with precipitation > 2 inch Extreme precipitation events measured in days with precipitation eclipsing two inches.

Days with precipitation > 4 inch Extreme precipitation events measured in days with precipitation eclipsing four inches.

Consecutive dry days For a given period, the largest number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm (0.039 inches).

Impacts from Increasing Temperatures

Warmer temperatures and extended heat waves could have very significant impacts on public health in our state, as well as the health of plants, animals and ecosystems like forests and wetlands. Rising temperatures will also affect important economic sectors like agriculture and tourism, and infrastructure like the electrical grid. Annual air temperatures in the Northeast have been warming at an average rate of 0.5°F (nearly 0.26°C) per decade since 1970. Winter temperatures have been rising at a faster rate of 0.9°F8 per decade on average. Even what seems like a very small rise in average temperatures can cause major changes in other factors, such as the relative proportion of precipitation that falls as rain or snow.

In Massachusetts, temperatures are projected to increase significantly over the next century.

Winter average temperatures are likely to increase more than those in summer, with major

impacts on everything from winter recreation to increased pests and challenges to harvesting

for the forestry industry.

Beyond this general warming trend, Massachusetts will experience an increasing number of

days with extreme heat in the future (Table 3). Generally, extreme heat is considered to be

over 90 degrees F, because at temperatures above that threshold, heat-related illnesses and

mortality show a marked increase.

Extreme heat can be especially damaging in urban areas, where there is often a concentration

of vulnerable populations, and where more impervious surfaces such as streets and parking lots

8 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: U.S. Time Series, Average

Temperature, published December 2017, retrieved on December 21, 2017 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

and less vegetation cause a “heat island” effect that makes them hotter compared to

neighboring rural areas.

Urban residents in Massachusetts – especially those who are very young, ill, or elderly, and

those who live in older buildings without air conditioning – will face greater risks of serious

heat-related illnesses when extreme heat becomes more common. Extreme heat and dry

conditions or drought could also be detrimental to crop production, harvest and livestock.

While warmer winters may reduce burdens on energy systems, more heat in the summer may

put larger demands on aging systems, creating the potential for power outages. The number of

cooling degree days is expected to increase significantly by the end of the century adding to this

strain. In addition, heat can directly stress transmission lines, substations, train tracks, roads

and bridges, and other critical infrastructure.

Impacts from Changing Precipitation Conditions

Rainfall is expected to increase in spring and winter months in particular in Massachusetts, with

increasing consecutive dry days in summer and fall. More total rainfall can have an impact on

the frequency of minor but disruptive flooding events, especially in areas where storm water

infrastructure has not been adequately sized to accommodate higher levels. Increased total

rainfall will also affect agriculture, forestry and natural ecosystems.

More intense downpours often lead to inland flooding as soils become saturated and stop

absorbing more water, river flows rise, and the capacity of urban storm water systems is

exceeded. Flooding may occur as a result of heavy rainfall, snowmelt, or coastal flooding

associated with high wind and wave action, but precipitation is the strongest driver of flooding

in Massachusetts. Winter flooding is also common in the state, particularly when the ground is

frozen. The Commonwealth experienced 22 flood-related disaster declarations from 1954 to

2017 with many of these falling in winter or early spring, or during recent hurricanes.

The climate projections suggest that the frequency of high-intensity rainfall events will trend

upward. Overall, it is anticipated that the severity of flood-inducing weather events and storms

will increase, with events that produce sufficient precipitation to present a risk of flooding likely

increasing. A single intense downpour can cause flooding and widespread damage to property

and critical infrastructure. The coast will experience the greatest increase in high-intensity

rainfall days, but some level of increase will occur in every area of Massachusetts.

Intense rainfall in urbanized areas can cause pollutants on roads and parking lots to get washed

into nearby rivers and lakes, reducing habitat quality. As rainfall and snowfall patterns change,

certain habitats and species that have specific physiological requirements may be affected.

Climate projections for Massachusetts indicate that in future decades, winter precipitation

could increase, but by the end of the century most of this precipitation is likely to fall as rain

instead of snow due to warmer winters. There are many human and environmental impacts

that could result from this change including reduced snow cover for winter recreation and

tourism, less spring snow melt to replenish aquifers, higher levels of winter runoff, and lower

spring river flows for aquatic ecosystems.

A small projected decrease in average summer precipitation in Massachusetts could combine

with higher temperatures to increase the frequency of episodic droughts, like the one

experienced across the Commonwealth in the summer of 2016.

Droughts will create challenges for local water supply by reducing surface water storage and

the recharge of groundwater supplies, including private wells. More frequent droughts could

also exacerbate the impacts of flood events by damaging vegetation that could otherwise help

mitigate flooding impacts. Droughts may also weaken tree root systems, making them more

susceptible to toppling during high wind events.

Table 5: Statewide projected changes of temperature and precipitation variables by the middle and end of the

century, based on climate models and the medium and high pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions.

Projected changes for each climate indicator are given as a 30-year mean relative to the 1971-2000 baseline,

centered on the 2050s (2040-2069) and the 2090s (2080-2099).9 The values cited are the range of the most likely

scenarios (10-90th percentile).

Climate Indicator

Observed Value

1971-2000

Average

Mid-Century

Projected and Percent Change in 2050s (2040-2069)

End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 47.6 °F Increase by 2.8 to 6.2 °F Increase by 6 to 13 %

Increase by 3.8 to 10.8 °F Increase by 8 to 23 %

Winter 26.6 °F Increase by 2.9 to 7.4 °F Increase by 11 to 28 %


Spring 45.4 °F Increase by 2.5 to 5.5 °F Increase by 6 to 12 %


Summer 67.9 °F Increase by 2.8 to 6.7 °F Increase by 4 to 10 %


Fall 50 °F Increase by 3.6 to 6.6 °F Increase by 7 to 13 %


Maximum Temperature

Annual 58.0 °F Increase by 2.6 to 6.1 °F Increase by 4 to 11 %






Summer 78.9 °F Increase by 2.6 to 6.7 °F Increase by 3 to 8 %


Fall 60.6 °F Increase by 3.4 to 6.8 °F Increase by 6 to 11 %


Minimum

Temperature

Annual 37.1 °F Increase 3.2 to 6.4 °F Increase by 9 to 17 %

Increase by 4.1 to 10.9°F Increase by 11 to 29 %





Summer 56.8 °F Increase by 3 to 6.9 °F Increase by 5 to 12 %

Increase by 3.9 to 12 °F Increase by 7 to 21 %

Fall 39.4 °F Increase by 3.5 to 6.5 °F Increase by 9 to 16 %


9 A 20-yr mean is used for the 2090s because the climate models end at 2100.

Table 5 Continued

Climate Indicator

Observed Value

1971-2000

Average

Mid-Century


End of Century


Days with

Tmax > 90°F

Annual 5 days Increase by 7 to 26 days Increase by 11 to 64 days

Winter 0 days No change No change

Spring < 1 day10

Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by 0 to 4 days

Summer 4 days Increase by 6 to 22 days Increase by 9 to 52 days

Fall < 1 day9 Increase by 0 to 3 days Increase by 1 to 9 days

Days with

Tmax > 95°F

Annual < 1 day9 Increase by 2 to 11 days Increase by 3 to 35 days


Spring < 1 day9 No change

Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by

Summer < 1 day9 Increase by 2 to 10 days Increase by 3 to 32 days

Fall < 1 day9 Increase by 0 to 1 day Increase by 0 to 3 days

Days with

Tmax > 100°F

Annual < 1 day9 Increase by 0 to 3 days Increase by 0 to 13 days


Spring 0 days No change No change

Summer < 1 day9 Increase by 0 to 3 days Increase by 0 to 12 days

Fall 0 days No change Increase by 0 to 1 day

Days with

Tmin < 32°F

Annual 146 days Decrease by 19 to 40 days Decrease by 24 to 64 days

Winter 82 days Decrease by 4 to 12 days Decrease by 6 to 25 days

Spring 37 days Decrease by 6 to 15 days Decrease by 9 to 20 days

Summer < 1 day9 No change No change

Fall 27 days Decrease by 8 to 13 days Decrease by 8 to 20 days

Days with Tmin < 0°F

Annual 8 days Decrease by 4 to 6 days Decrease by 4 to 7 days

Winter 8 days Decrease by 3 to 6 days Decrease by 4 to 6 days

Spring < 1 day9 No change No change

Summer 0 days No change No change

Fall < 1 day9 No change No change

10

Over the observed period, there were some years with at least 1 day with seasonal Tmax over (or Tmin under) a certain threshold while in all the other years that threshold wasn’t crossed seasonally at all.

Table 5 Continued

Climate Indicator

Observed Value

1971-2000

Average

Mid-Century


End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6839

degree-days Decrease by 773 to 1627 degree-days Decrease by 11 to 24 %

Decrease by 1033 to 2533 degree-days Decrease by 15 to 37 %

Winter 3475



Spring 1822


Decreases by 283 to 727 degree-days Decrease by 16 to 40 %

Summer 134



Fall 1407



Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 457

degree-days Increase by 261 to 689 degree-days Increase by 57 to 151 %

Increase by 356 to 1417 degree-days Increase by 78 to 310 %

Winter 0

degree-days Increase by 0 to 5 degree-days Increase by 0 to 5 degree-days

Spring 17



Summer 397



Fall 40



Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2344



Winter 5



Spring 259



Summer 1644



Fall 429



Table 5 Continued

Climate Indicator

Observed Value

1971-2000

Average

Mid-Century


End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”


Winter 2 days Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by 0 to 2 days

Spring 2 days Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by 0 to 1 days

Summer 2 days Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by 0 to 1 days

Fall 2 days Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by 0 to 1 days

Days with Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1 day Increase by 0 to 1 days Increase by 0 to 1 days

Winter < 1 day11

Increase by < 1 day10


Spring < 1 day10



Summer < 1 day10



Fall < 1 day10



Days with Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual < 1 day10



Winter 0 days No change Increase by < 1 day10

Spring 0 days Increase by < 1 day10


Summer < 1 day10



Fall < 1 day10



Total Precipitation

Annual 47 inches Increase by 1 to 6 inches Increase by 2 to 13 %

Increase by 1.2 to 7.3 inches Increase by 3 to 16 %

Winter 11.2 inches Increase by 0.1 to 2.4 inches Increase by 1 to 21 %


Spring 12 inches Increase by 0.1 to 2 inches Increase by 1 to 17 %


Summer 11.5 inches Decrease by 0.4 to Increase by 2 inches Decrease by 3 % to Increase by 17 %

Decrease by 1.5 to Increase by 1.9 inches Decrease by 13% to Increase by 16 %

Fall 12.2 inches Decrease by 1.1 to Increase by 1.4 inches Decrease by 9 to Increase by 12 %

Decrease by 1.7 to Increase by 1.4 inches Decrease by 14 to Increase by 11 %

Consecutive Dry Days


Winter 11 days Decrease by 1 to Increase by 1 days Decrease by 1 to Increase by 2 days

Spring 11 days Decrease by 1 to Increase by 1 day Decrease by 1 to Increase by 1 day

Summer 12 days Decrease by 1 to Increase by 2 days Decrease by 1 to Increase by 3 days

Fall 12 days Increase by 0 to 3 days Increase by 0 to 3 days

11

Over the observed period, there were some years with at least 1 day with seasonal precipitation over a certain threshold while in all the other years that threshold wasn’t crossed seasonally at all.

BLACKSTONE BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN BLACKSTONE BASIN:

Attleboro, Auburn, Bellingham, Blackstone, Boylston, Douglas, Franklin, Grafton, Holden,

Hopedale, Hopkinton, Leicester, Mendon, Milford, Millbury, Millville, North Attleborough,

Northbridge, Oxford, Paxton, Plainville, Shrewsbury, Sutton, Upton, Uxbridge, Westborough,

West Boylston, Worcester, and Wrentham

Many municipalities fall within more than one basin, so it is advised to use the climate

projections for the basin that contains the majority of the land area of the municipality.

BLACKSTONE BASIN

Blackstone Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)

Projected Change in 2030s (°F)

Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 48.2 +2.17 to +4.23 +2.88 to +6.29 +3.52 to +9.05 +3.78 to +11.06

Winter 27.14 +2.18 to +4.73 +2.77 to +7.23 +3.50 to +8.98 +3.90 to +10.39

Spring 46.21 +1.57 to +3.42 +2.40 to +5.59 +2.57 to +7.96 +3.09 to +9.74

Summer 68.6 +2.22 to +4.32 +2.83 to +6.94 +3.32 to +10.23 +3.89 to +12.55

Fall 50.45 +2.31 to +5.24 +3.96 to +6.90 +3.80 to +9.75 +4.25 to +12.06

Maximum Temperature

Annual 58.7 +2.06 to +4.05 +2.68 to +6.23 +3.23 to +9.10 +3.46 to +10.95

Winter 36.79 +1.82 to +4.33 +2.40 to +6.69 +2.94 to +8.24 +3.37 to +9.61

Spring 57 +1.47 to +3.37 +2.14 to +5.56 +2.50 to +8.08 +3.01 to +9.70

Summer 79.48 +2.02 to +4.34 +2.70 to +6.87 +3.24 to +10.46 +3.73 to +12.78

Fall 61.13 +2.42 to +4.99 +3.69 to +7.11 +3.65 to +9.85 +4.12 to +12.36

Minimum

Temperature

Annual 37.7 +2.27 to +4.49 +3.13 to +6.50 +3.80 to +9.00 +4.09 to +11.11

Winter 17.49 +2.48 to +5.22 +3.17 to +7.73 +4.15 to +9.71 +4.38 to +11.24

Spring 35.42 +1.66 to +3.60 +2.64 to +5.96 +2.73 to +7.77 +3.17 to +9.62

Summer 57.73 +2.27 to +4.35 +2.97 to +7.04 +3.40 to +10.01 +4.06 to +12.35

Fall 39.78 +2.22 to +5.36 +3.91 to +6.81 +3.94 to +9.56 +4.38 to +11.97

The Blackstone basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the

21st century. Maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase throughout

the end of the century. These increased temperature trends are expected for annual and

seasonal projections.

Seasonally, maximum summer and fall temperatures are expected to see the highest projected

increase throughout the 21st century.

o Summer mid-century increase of 2.70 °F to 6.87 °F (3-12% increase); end of century

increase of 3.7 °F to 12.8 °F (5-16% increase).

o Fall mid-century increase of 3.7 °F to 7.1°F (6-17% increase); end of century increase by

and 4.1 °F to 12.4 °F (7-20% increase).

Seasonally, minimum winter and fall temperatures are expected to see the highest projected


o Winter mid-century increase of 3.2 °F to 7.7 °F (18-44% increase); end of century

increase by 4.4 °F to 11.2 °F (25-64% increase).

o Fall mid-century of 3.9 °F to 6.8 °F (10-17% increase); end of century increase of 4.4 °F to

12 °F (11-30% increase).

BLACKSTONE BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)

Projected Change in 2030s (Days)

Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 4.69 +5.41 to +15.55 +7.80 to +28.89 +9.95 to +51.17 +12.23 to +70.36

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.31 +0.02 to +0.69 +0.16 to +1.12 +0.24 to +2.37 +0.17 to +3.84

Summer 4.2 +4.79 to +13.53 +6.62 to +24.66 +8.60 to +42.44 +10.98 to +56.11

Fall 0.18 +0.40 to +1.73 +0.65 to +4.31 +0.68 to +8.13 +1.09 to +10.66

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.35 +1.36 to +5.29 +1.90 to +11.42 +2.55 to +24.98 +3.71 to +39.61

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.02 to +0.32 +0.02 to +0.68 +0.03 to +1.27

Summer 0.35 +1.32 to +4.85 +1.69 to +10.42 +2.38 to +22.62 +3.53 to +35.24

Fall 0.00 +0.03 to +0.49 +0.04 to +0.91 +0.11 to +2.57 +0.16 to +3.98

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.02 +0.09 to +0.83 +0.16 to +2.75 +0.25 to +6.61 +0.19 to +14.02

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 -0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.25

Summer 0.02 +0.05 to +0.73 +0.14 to +2.64 +0.23 to +6.15 +0.19 to +12.91

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.17 +0.00 to +0.45 +0.00 to +0.83

Due to projected increases in average and maximum temperatures throughout the end of the

century, the Blackstone basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily

maximum temperatures over 90 °F, 95 °F, and 100 °F.

o Annually, the Blackstone basin is expected to see days with daily maximum

temperatures over 90 °F increase by 8 to 29 more days by mid-century, and 12 to 70

more days by the end of the century.

o Seasonally, summer is expected to see an increase of 7 to 25 more days with daily

maximums over 90 °F by mid-century.

o By end of century, the Blackstone basin is expected to have 11 to 56 more days.

BLACKSTONE BASIN

Blackstone Basin

Observed Baseline 1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 5.96 -1.95 to -3.7 -2.34 to -4.31 -2.59 to -4.87 -2.68 to -5.06

Winter 5.9 -2.02 to -3.62 -2.33 to -4.11 -2.55 to -4.75 -2.67 to -4.97

Spring 0.07 -0.21 to +0.03 -0.00 to -0.22 -0.01 to -0.26 -0.02 to -0.26

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.01 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 142.52 -10.35 to -26.51 -17.60 to -38.76 -0.71 to -54.14 -22.84 to -65.55

Winter 83.06 -2.24 to -7.14 -3.15 to -11.18 -4.37 to -19.94 -5.52 to -25.55

Spring 34.7 -3.07 to -10.81 -5.94 to -15.34 -7.48 to -19.82 -8.21 to -21.09

Summer 0.00 -0.08 to -0.00 -0.08 to -0.00 -0.09 to -0.00 -0.08 to -0.00

Fall 24.73 -4.86 to -10.69 -8.13 to -13.09 -8.32 to -17.04 -8.03 to -19.44

Due to projected increases in average and minimum temperatures throughout the end of the

century, the Blackstone basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum

temperatures below 32 °F and 0 °F.

Seasonally, winter, spring and fall are expected to see the largest decreases in days with daily

minimum temperatures below 32 °F.

o Winter is expected to have 3 to 11 fewer days by mid-century, and 6 to 26 fewer days by

end of century.

o Spring is expected to have 6 to 15 fewer days by mid-century, and 8 to 21 fewer days by

end of century.

o Fall is expected to have 8 to 13 fewer days by mid-century, and 8 to 19 fewer days by

end of century.

BLACKSTONE BASIN

Blackstone Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-

Days) Projected Change in 2030s (Degree-Days)

Mid-Century

Projected Change in 2050s (Degree-Days)


End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6650.72 -538.84 to -1133.04 -745.49 to -1599.20 -875.93 to -2128.13 -990.84 to -2515.37

Winter 3429.45 -186.30 to -440.85 -245.48 to -663.13 -310.30 to -815.38 -362.52 to -956.44

Spring 1747.73 -128.37 to -291.86 -200.70 to -470.07 -218.72 to -632.48 -273.58 to -747.07

Summer 103.68 -37.50 to -64.33 -50.19 to -83.60 -57.38 to -93.48 -58.73 to -99.19

Fall 1364.79 -169.45 to -389.97 -293.16 to -472.69 -272.88 to -653.75 -296.19 to -746.70

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 499.29 +225.59 to +444.27 +295.30 to +758.47 +345.56 to +1188.08 +397.92 to +1547.94

Winter nan +0.51 to +0.51 +1.04 to +2.39 +0.30 to +2.20 +0.14 to +4.62

Spring 19.72 +10.70 to +29.08 +18.73 to +57.09 +23.70 to +95.11 +20.28 to +131.50

Summer 435.09 +161.24 to +337.36 +199.79 to +557.86 +240.80 to +851.55 +286.26 to +1060.50

Fall 40.33 +35.97 to +97.21 +51.30 to +164.68 +59.76 to +259.59 +86.45 to +347.34

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2450.84 +426.76 to +817.08 +581.58 to +1286.71 +664.10 to +1991.79 +749.29 to +2492.22

Winter 6.17 -1.61 to +9.67 +0.16 to +13.36 +2.90 to +21.64 +2.45 to +27.96

Spring 285.3 +67.01 to +140.75 +91.09 to +246.18 +104.87 to +380.96 +110.94 to +496.40

Summer 1711.52 +203.91 to +397.43 +259.87 to +637.50 +304.28 to +941.29 +356.92 to +1153.86

Fall 441.81 +124.81 to +312.86 +200.47 to +434.62 +192.84 to +638.78 +241.55 to +810.26

Due to projected increases in average, maximum, and minimum temperatures throughout the

end of the century, the Blackstone basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-

days, and increases in both cooling degree-days and growing degree-days.

Seasonally, winter historically exhibits the highest number of heating degree-days and is

expected to see the largest decrease of any season, but spring and fall are also expected to see

significant change.

o The winter season is expected to see a decrease of 245 to 663 degree-days by mid-

century (a decrease of 7-19%), and a decrease of 363 to 956 degree-days by the end of

century (a decrease of 11-28%).

o The spring season is expected to decrease in heating degree-days by 11-27% (201-470

degree-days) by mid-century, and by 16-43% (274-747 degree-days) by the end of

century.

o The fall season is expected to decreases in heating degree-days by 21-35% (293-473

degree-days) by mid-century, and by and 22-55% (296-747 degree-days) by the end of

century.

Conversely, due to projected increasing temperatures, summer cooling degree-days are

expected to increase by 46-128% (200-558 degree-days) by mid-century, and by 66-244% (286-

1061 degree-days) by end of century.

Seasonally, summer historically exhibits the highest number of growing degree-days and is

expected to see the largest decrease of any season, but the shoulder seasons of spring and fall

are also expected to see an increase in growing degree-days.

o The summer season is projected to increase by 15-37% (260-638 degree-days) by mid-

century, and by 21-67% (357-1154 degree-days) by end of century.

o Spring is expected to increase by 32-86% (91-246 degree-days) by mid-century, and

39-174% (111-496 degree-days) by end of century.

o Fall is expected to increase by 45-98% (200-435 degree-days) by mid-century and


BLACKSTONE BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.45 +0.32 to +2.26 +0.62 to +3.49 +1.32 to +3.58 +1.27 to +4.95

Winter 1.92 -0.05 to +0.92 +0.16 to +1.46 +0.26 to +1.75 +0.38 to +2.13

Spring 1.8 -0.10 to +0.68 +0.03 to +1.02 +0.24 to +1.32 +0.13 to +1.61

Summer 2.02 -0.16 to +0.58 -0.11 to +0.92 -0.08 to +0.88 -0.17 to +0.81

Fall 2.69 -0.35 to +0.96 -0.23 to +1.13 -0.30 to +0.82 -0.59 to +0.98

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.98 +0.05 to +0.52 +0.13 to +0.57 +0.18 to +0.64 +0.19 to +0.87

Winter 0.11 -0.04 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.13 -0.03 to +0.17 -0.02 to +0.24

Spring 0.15 -0.03 to +0.13 +0.01 to +0.13 +0.01 to +0.19 +0.03 to +0.29

Summer 0.39 -0.06 to +0.19 -0.05 to +0.26 -0.04 to +0.26 -0.12 to +0.21

Fall 0.33 -0.09 to +0.32 -0.07 to +0.32 -0.06 to +0.25 -0.10 to +0.33

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.01 -0.04 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.04 to +0.13 -0.04 to +0.15

Winter 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to +0.00 -0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.00 to +0.01 -0.00 to +0.02 -0.00 to +0.03 -0.00 to +0.04

Summer 0.01 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.04 to +0.04 -0.04 to +0.06

Fall 0.00 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.07

The projections for expected number of days receiving precipitation over one inch are variable

for the Blackstone basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.

o Seasonally, the winter season is generally expected to see the highest projected

increase.

o The winter season is expected to see an increase in days with precipitation over one

inch 0-1 days by mid-century, and by 0-2 days by the end of century.

o The spring season is expected to see an increase in days with precipitation over one inch

of 0-1 days by mid-century, and by 0-2 days by the end of century.

BLACKSTONE BASIN

Blackstone Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)

Projected Change in 2030s (Inches)

Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.13 +0.26 to +5.53 +1.35 to +6.79 +2.49 to +8.67 +1.62 to +8.71

Winter 11.42 -0.37 to +2.06 +0.31 to +2.84 +0.35 to +3.50 +0.44 to +4.45

Spring 11.97 -0.09 to +2.16 +0.06 to +2.26 +0.47 to +2.83 +0.26 to +2.80

Summer 11.34 -0.14 to +1.65 -0.39 to +2.25 -0.75 to +2.73 -1.62 to +2.61

Fall 12.39 -1.15 to +1.39 -1.33 to +2.13 -1.59 to +1.89 -1.78 to +1.69

Similar to projections for number of days receiving precipitation over a specified threshold,

seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Blackstone basin.

o The winter season is expected to experience the greatest change (increase of 3-25% by

mid-century and 4-39% by end of century).

o Projections for the summer and fall seasons are more variable, and could see either a

drop or increase in total precipitation throughout the 21st century.

The summer season projections for the Blackstone basin could see a decrease of

0.4 to an increase of 2.3 inches by mid-century (decrease of 3% to increase of

20%), and a decrease of 1.6 to an increase of 2.6 inches by the end of the

century (decrease of 14% to increase of 23%).

The fall season projections for the Blackstone basin could see a decrease of




Blackstone Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.63 -0.36 to +1.48 -0.34 to +2.05 -1.00 to +2.42 -0.59 to +2.92

Winter 11.53 -0.71 to +1.34 -0.63 to +1.50 -0.88 to +1.54 -1.07 to +1.68

Spring 10.93 -1.19 to +0.78 -1.03 to +1.10 -1.35 to +1.06 -1.18 to +1.01

Summer 12.09 -0.78 to +1.45 -0.79 to +2.09 -1.29 to +2.84 -1.28 to +2.87

Fall 12.53 -0.30 to +1.80 -0.42 to +2.58 -0.49 to +3.06 -0.38 to +3.16

Annual and seasonal projections for consecutive dry days, or for a given period, the largest

number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm (~0.04 inches), are variable

throughout the 21st century.

o For all the temporal parameters, the Blackstone basin is expected to see a slight

decrease to an increase in consecutive dry days throughout this century.

o Seasonally, the fall and summer seasons are expected to continue to experience the

highest number of consecutive dry.

The fall season is expected to experience an increase of 0-3 days in consecutive

dry days by the end of the century.

BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN BOSTON HARBOR BASIN:

Abington, Arlington, Avon, Belmont, Boston, Braintree, Brockton, Burlington, Cambridge,

Canton, Chelsea, Cohasset, Dedham, Dover, Everett, Foxborough, Hingham, Holbrook, Hull,

Lexington, Malden, Melrose, Medfield, Medford, Milton, Norwell, Norwood, Quincy, Randolph,

Reading, Revere, Rockland, Sharon, Somerville, Stoneham, Stoughton, Wakefield, Walpole,

Watertown, Westwood, Weymouth, Wilmington, Winchester, Winthrop, and Woburn



BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

Boston Harbor Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 50.13 +2.07 to +3.99 +2.73 to +6.07 +3.18 to +8.92 +3.46 to +10.84

Winter 29.84 +2.17 to +4.55 +2.87 to +6.89 +3.50 to +8.88 +3.87 to +10.34

Spring 47.65 +1.69 to +3.44 +2.34 to +5.41 +2.58 to +8.02 +3.13 to +9.79

Summer 70.07 +1.79 to +3.95 +2.34 to +6.52 +2.78 to +9.77 +3.39 to +12.11

Fall 52.58 +2.03 to +4.69 +3.52 to +6.53 +3.30 to +9.31 +3.78 to +11.60

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.55 +1.90 to +3.85 +2.56 to +6.00 +2.92 to +8.94 +3.19 to +10.74

Winter 38.38 +1.85 to +4.32 +2.46 to +6.44 +3.02 to +8.26 +3.42 to +9.56

Spring 57.46 +1.50 to +3.39 +2.03 to +5.42 +2.56 to +8.23 +3.08 to +9.66

Summer 80.04 +1.69 to +3.99 +2.23 to +6.41 +2.70 to +9.90 +3.22 to +12.21

Fall 61.93 +2.09 to +4.52 +3.30 to +6.66 +3.21 to +9.40 +3.63 to +11.78

Minimum Temperature

Annual 40.7 +2.17 to +4.24 +2.91 to +6.22 +3.45 to +8.91 +3.75 to +10.95

Winter 21.31 +2.45 to +5.00 +3.24 to +7.34 +4.04 to +9.47 +4.33 to +10.91

Spring 37.84 +1.75 to +3.47 +2.64 to +5.71 +2.62 to +7.81 +3.25 to +9.76

Summer 60.11 +1.89 to +3.94 +2.44 to +6.76 +2.85 to +9.63 +3.56 to +12.02

Fall 43.22 +1.99 to +4.81 +3.49 to +6.45 +3.39 to +9.29 +3.92 to +11.41

The Boston Harbor basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout

the 21st century. Maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase

throughout the end of the century. These increased temperature trends are expected for annual

and seasonal projections.



o Summer mid-century increase of 2.2 °F to 6.4 °F (3-8% increase); end of century increase

of 3.2 °F to 12.2 °F (4-15% increase).



Seasonally, minimum winter and fall temperatures are expected to increase throughout the 21st

century.




11.4 °F (9-26% increase).

BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

Boston Harbor Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.85 +5.60 to +15.57 +7.75 to +29.07 +9.46 to +49.32 +11.54 to +66.93

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.5 +0.20 to +0.77 +0.37 to +1.35 +0.40 to +2.36 +0.29 to +3.97

Summer 7.04 +4.66 to +13.40 +6.18 to +24.21 +8.05 to +39.68 +10.28 to +51.95

Fall 0.31 +0.51 to +2.14 +0.73 to +4.89 +0.91 to +8.34 +1.19 to +10.97

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 1.08 +1.77 to +6.53 +2.01 to +12.66 +2.92 to +26.38 +4.55 to +40.58

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.01 +0.02 to +0.20 +0.02 to +0.35 +0.08 to +0.70 +0.03 to +1.51

Summer 1.05 +1.55 to +5.99 +1.89 to +11.24 +2.70 to +23.32 +4.34 to +35.56

Fall 0.02 +0.06 to +0.67 +0.08 to +1.55 +0.16 to +3.53 +0.26 to +4.83

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.05 +0.24 to +1.40 +0.32 to +3.81 +0.47 to +8.58 +0.55 to +15.67

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.36

Summer 0.05 +0.21 to +1.24 +0.26 to +3.60 +0.45 to +7.71 +0.52 to +14.23

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.28 +0.00 to +0.70 +0.01 to +1.21


century, the Boston Harbor basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Boston Harbor basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Boston Harbor basin is expected to have 10 to 52 more days.

BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

Boston Harbor Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 2.58 -0.73 to -1.72 -0.86 to -2.01 -1.02 to -2.05 -0.92 to -2.1

Winter 2.57 -0.70 to -1.68 -0.85 to -1.96 -1.01 to -2.01 -0.91 to -2.06

Spring 0.01 -0.08 to +0.01 -0.09 to +0.00 -0.11 to -0.00 -0.11 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 119.21 -11.79 to -27.09 -17.05 to -42.10 -21.02 to -54.79 -22.54 to -65.69

Winter 76.48 -4.35 to -10.46 -5.24 to -17.45 -7.50 to -26.48 -8.93 to -34.12

Spring 26.51 -3.44 to -10.21 -6.02 to -14.01 -6.70 to -18.17 -7.95 to -19.54

Summer 0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Fall 16.19 -4.11 to -8.13 -5.81 to -10.18 -6.64 to -12.56 -5.80 to -14.06


century, the Boston Harbor basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily

minimum temperatures below 32 °F and 0 °F.



o Winter is expected to have 5 to 17 fewer days by mid-century, and 9 to 34 fewer by end

of century.

o Spring is expected to have 6 to 14 fewer days by mid-century, and 8 to 20 fewer by end

of century.


end of century.

BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

Boston Harbor Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6078.6 -500.54 to -1035.05 -672.05 to -1473.30 -798.29 to -1955.65 -899.41 to -2343.46

Winter 3182.27 -190.90 to -420.59 -250.52 to -633.54 -311.79 to -805.90 -358.50 to -949.08

Spring 1623.3 -132.42 to -284.51 -190.37 to -446.56 -215.51 to -630.49 -277.90 to -742.49

Summer 77.66 -28.69 to -48.6 -34.41 to -61.51 -40.23 to -71.65 -43.54 to -74.94

Fall 1190.96 -142.96 to -330.92 -248.43 to -418.08 -232.46 to -591.26 -253.57 to -668.90

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 636.02 +216.50 to +443.48 +281.45 to +763.73 +326.69 to +1205.65 +381.04 to +1558.59

Winter nan +0.30 to +4.18 -0.20 to +5.14 -0.53 to +3.30 -0.20 to +5.28

Spring 26.94 +13.42 to +33.49 +23.11 to +63.87 +25.82 to +103.20 23.93 to +143.38

Summer 544.48 +135.55 to +320.64 +175.30 to +541.04 +212.87 to +828.15 +260.68 to +1041.01

Fall 60.45 +37.41 to +101.70 +57.30 to +191.31 +67.33 to +289.12 +94.46 to +375.83

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2733.34 +393.15 to +798.33 +538.44 to +1251.18 +605.73 to +1995.52 +691.87 to +2508.24

Winter 7.42 +1.44 to +16.84 +2.52 to +19.76 +7.07 to +36.68 +7.25 to +46.66

Spring 326.56 +76.91 to +152.27 +101.00 to +261.65 +105.69 to +408.29 +122.03 to +527.10

Summer 1846.85 +164.09 to +362.91 +214.53 to +599.63 +255.19 to +898.50 +311.56 to +1114.22

Fall 547.36 +108.67 to +298.71 +198.14 to +441.05 +185.73 to +654.54 +236.44 to +817.90


end of the century, the Boston Harbor basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating

degree-days, and increases in both cooling degree-days and growing degree-days.



significant change.






century.



century.


expected to increase by 32-99% (175-541 degree-days) by mid-century, and by 48-191%

(261-1041 degree-days) by end of century.






o Spring is expected to increase by 31-80% (101-262 degree-days) by mid-century and

37-161% (122.-527 degree-days) by end of century.

o Fall is expected to increase by 36-81% (198-441 degree-days) by mid-century and


BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

Boston Harbor Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 9.06 +0.37 to +2.16 +0.78 to +3.05 +1.00 to +3.17 +1.28 to +4.43

Winter 2.4 -0.02 to +0.97 +0.14 to +1.17 +0.30 to +1.57 +0.41 to +2.20

Spring 2.04 -0.04 to +0.82 +0.00 to +1.08 +0.18 to +1.30 +0.23 to +1.33

Summer 1.96 -0.10 to +0.54 -0.08 to +0.79 -0.14 to +0.68 -0.17 to +0.61

Fall 2.64 -0.21 to +0.69 -0.11 to +0.99 -0.29 to +0.76 -0.33 to +1.01

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1.27 +0.05 to +0.58 +0.10 to +0.74 +0.11 to +0.88 +0.27 to +1.19

Winter 0.2 -0.02 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.22 +0.00 to +0.30 +0.02 to +0.34

Spring 0.21 -0.07 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.24 -0.02 to +0.24 +0.01 to +0.36

Summer 0.41 -0.08 to +0.23 -0.03 to +0.23 -0.09 to +0.15 -0.07 to +0.13

Fall 0.44 -0.06 to +0.29 -0.04 to +0.26 +0.01 to +0.32 -0.08 to +0.45

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.08 -0.03 to +0.15 -0.01 to +0.13 -0.03 to +0.16 -0.03 to +0.20

Winter 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.00 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.00 to +0.06

Summer 0.03 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.10

Fall 0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.12


for the Boston Harbor basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.


inch of 0-1 days by mid-century, and by 0-2.days by the end of century.


of 0-1 days) by mid-century, and by 0-1 days) by the end of century.

BOSTON HARBOR BASIN

Boston Harbor Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 46.07 +0.02 to +4.67 +0.30 to +6.20 +1.19 to +7.67 +1.09 to +9.03

Winter 11.82 -0.41 to +1.88 -0.02 to +2.35 +0.37 to +3.01 +0.37 to +4.07

Spring 11.59 -0.10 to +2.24 +0.03 to +2.18 +0.14 to +2.71 +0.30 to +2.83

Summer 10.51 -0.49 to +1.56 -0.41 to +1.86 -1.01 to +2.77 -1.66 to +2.23

Fall 12.18 -0.92 to +1.18 -1.02 to +1.60 -1.74 to +2.08 -1.64 to +1.78


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Boston Harbor basin.

o The winter season is expected to experience the greatest change with an increase of

0-20% by mid-century, and 3-34% by end of century.



The summer season projections for the Boston Harbor basin could see a

decrease of 0.4 to an increase of 1.9 inches by mid-century (decrease of 4% to

increase of 18%), and a decrease of 1.7 to an increase of 2.2 inches by the end

of the century (decrease of 16% to increase of 21%).

The fall season projections for the Boston Harbor basin could see a decrease of




Boston Harbor Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.46 -0.29 to +1.41 -0.41 to +2.17 -0.93 to +2.88 -0.59 to +3.64

Winter 11.09 -0.72 to +1.44 -0.52 to +1.59 -0.69 to +2.08 -1.00 to +2.01

Spring 11.37 -1.05 to +0.55 -1.10 to +1.24 -1.44 to +1.47 -1.31 to +1.27

Summer 12.58 -1.16 to +1.27 -0.95 to +2.27 -1.26 to +3.05 -1.44 to +2.41

Fall 12.78 -0.20 to +2.02 -0.18 to +2.66 -0.40 to +3.08 -0.45 to +3.00




o For all the temporal parameters, the Boston Harbor basin is expected to see a slight



highest number of consecutive dry days.



BUZZARDS BAY BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN BUZZARDS BAY BASIN:

Acushnet, Bourne, Carver, Dartmouth, Fairhaven, Fall River, Freetown, Lakeville, Marion,

Mattapoisett, Middleborough, New Bedford, Plymouth, Rochester, Wareham, Westport



BUZZARDS BAY BASIN

Buzzards Bay Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 50.67 +1.93 to +3.63 +2.56 to +5.85 +2.96 to +8.49 +3.28 to +10.34

Winter 31.25 +2.09 to +4.15 +2.77 to +6.44 +3.25 to +8.45 +3.63 to +9.82

Spring 47.34 +1.90 to +3.56 +2.55 to +5.67 +2.78 to +7.59 +3.28 to +9.17

Summer 70.11 +1.55 to +3.72 +2.05 to +6.13 +2.56 to +9.35 +3.13 to +11.24

Fall 53.64 +1.95 to +4.08 +3.22 to +6.10 +2.98 to +8.72 +3.47 to +10.73

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.52 +1.83 to +3.63 +2.38 to +5.78 +2.69 to +8.48 +3.03 to +10.19

Winter 39.72 +1.78 to +4.00 +2.42 to +5.94 +2.86 to +7.81 +3.28 to +9.12

Spring 56.27 +1.75 to +3.52 +2.23 to +5.41 +2.72 to +7.60 +3.15 to +9.07

Summer 79.16 +1.45 to +3.61 +1.93 to +6.08 +2.45 to +9.33 +2.88 to +11.16

Fall 62.57 +1.90 to +4.10 +3.00 to +6.17 +2.90 to +8.58 +3.26 to +10.85

Minimum Temperature

Annual 41.82 +2.03 to +3.70 +2.77 to +5.97 +3.24 to +8.50 +3.57 to +10.44

Winter 22.78 +2.36 to +4.40 +3.10 to +6.94 +3.71 to +9.10 +4.03 to +10.52

Spring 38.4 +1.94 to +3.72 +2.87 to +5.93 +2.84 to +7.78 +3.40 to +9.22

Summer 61.05 +1.65 to +3.79 +2.16 to +6.18 +2.67 to +9.30 +3.37 to +11.31

Fall 44.72 +1.98 to +4.26 +3.29 to +6.10 +3.09 to +8.75 +3.72 to +10.72

The Buzzards Bay basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout







of 2.9 °F to 11.2 °F (4-14% increase).



Seasonally, minimum winter and fall temperatures are expected to see increases throughout the

21st century.




10.7 °F (8-24% increase).

BUZZARDS BAY BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 4.41 +3.20 to +9.23 +4.20 to +20.84 +5.88 to +39.91 +8.16 to +55.00

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.18 +0.00 to +0.32 +0.03 to +0.53 +0.06 to +0.97 +0.08 to +1.46

Summer 4.05 +2.99 to +8.48 +3.84 to +18.80 +5.59 to +35.46 +7.46 to +47.83

Fall 0.19 +0.18 to +0.82 +0.30 to +1.59 +0.29 to +4.12 +0.53 to +6.14

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.64 +0.74 to +2.60 +1.01 to +6.45 +1.43 to +15.07 +2.06 to +25.37

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.03 -0.01 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.16 +0.01 to +0.25 +0.01 to +0.39

Summer 0.61 +0.70 to +2.46 +0.97 to +6.04 +1.38 to +14.13 +1.96 to +23.75

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.13 +0.02 to +0.29 +0.02 to +0.92 +0.04 to +1.43

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.05 +0.04 to +0.39 +0.09 to +1.40 +0.14 to +3.44 +0.12 to +7.30

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.10

Summer 0.05 +0.04 to +0.39 +0.09 to +1.36 +0.14 to +3.38 +0.11 to +7.03

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.23


century, the Buzzards Bay basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Buzzards Bay basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Buzzards Bay basin is expected to have 7 to 48 more days.

BUZZARDS BAY BASIN

Buzzards Bay Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 1.7 -0.32 to -0.75 -0.40 to -0.9 -0.48 to -0.89 -0.45 to -0.94

Winter 1.7 -0.33 to -0.75 -0.39 to -0.89 -0.48 to -0.88 -0.45 to -0.93

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 110.78 -13.67 to -27.90 -19.56 to -43.51 -23.01 to -55.47 -24.34 to -66.53

Winter 73.38 -5.33 to -11.52 -6.62 to -19.83 -9.32 to -29.03 -10.37 to -36.99

Spring 24.56 -4.98 to -10.8 -6.81 to -14.52 -7.77 to -17.95 -9.31 to -19.04

Summer 0.00 -0.05 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00

Fall 12.8 -3.86 to -7.32 -5.15 to -8.97 -5.88 to -11.08 -5.96 to -12.38


century, the Buzzards Bay basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily




o Winter is expected to have 7 to 20 fewer days by mid-century, and 10 to 37 fewer by

end of century.


of century.

o Fall is expected to have 5 to 9 fewer days by mid-century, and 6 to 12 fewer days by end

of century.

BUZZARDS BAY BASIN

Buzzards Bay Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 5866.07 -502.07 to -972.40 -707.22 to -1454.90 -811.86 to -1927.02 -878.91 to -2283.39

Winter 3055.55 -189.79 to -383.41 -246.96 to -589.79 -293.52 to -765.13 -327.13 to -904.75

Spring 1639.46 -160.90 to -307.61 -217.22 to -480.17 -241.36 to -625.48 -297.03 to -727.64

Summer 66.92 -22.55 to -44.08 -32.69 to -53.58 -33.62 to -62.98 -38.95 to -66.27

Fall 1100.85 -133.03 to -290.86 -233.74 to -399.50 -223.38 to -563.66 -241.15 to -637.87

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 621.97 +190.86 to +404.33 +242.16 to +683.45 +284.03 to +1120.38 +347.50 to +1422.93

Winter nan +0.04 to +3.78 +0.18 to +4.39 -1.17 to +3.69 +0.68 to +5.06

Spring 16.08 +9.41 to +25.22 +13.30 to +47.93 +15.26 to +78.39 +16.45 to +103.66

Summer 536.93 +119.64 to +302.66 +152.55 to +512.36 +199.66 to +794.65 +245.69 to +972.31

Fall 67.47 +30.83 to +87.11 +46.88 to +160.43 +53.66 to +250.81 +81.12 to +329.68

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2733.75 +363.23 to +753.00 +485.70 to +1198.52 +557.97 to +1890.34 +655.10 to +2361.45

Winter 6.6 +1.12 to +14.00 +1.76 to +21.67 +5.80 to +38.46 +6.67 to +53.52

Spring 280.36 +72.55 to +144.02 +95.59 to +245.61 +102.23 to +368.72 +109.63 to +478.66

Summer 1850.06 +142.55 to +341.83 +187.68 to +563.70 +234.80 to +860.40 +287.00 to +1034.33

Fall 593.39 +98.75 to +263.17 +179.09 to +410.67 +169.57 to +602.92 +219.19 to +764.68


end of the century, the Buzzards Bay basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.






century.



century.









o Spring is expected to see an increase by 34-88% (96-246 degree-days) by mid-century

and 39-171% (110-479 degree-days) by end of century.

o Fall is expected to see an increase by 30-69% (179-411 degree-days) by mid-century and


BUZZARDS BAY BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.03 +0.31 to +1.92 +0.81 to +2.67 +0.77 to +3.02 +1.08 to +3.79

Winter 1.87 +0.02 to +0.77 +0.20 to +0.95 +0.19 to +1.17 +0.36 to +1.76

Spring 1.87 +0.06 to +0.82 +0.13 to +1.08 +0.26 to +1.31 +0.30 to +1.38

Summer 2.08 -0.34 to +0.56 -0.12 to +0.59 -0.14 to +0.51 -0.43 to +0.68

Fall 2.2 -0.25 to +0.52 -0.24 to +0.89 -0.22 to +0.76 -0.28 to +1.14

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.99 +0.04 to +0.53 +0.17 to +0.70 +0.14 to +0.82 +0.23 to +1.01

Winter 0.2 -0.04 to +0.19 +0.01 to +0.19 -0.01 to +0.27 +0.02 to +0.34

Spring 0.14 -0.02 to +0.16 -0.01 to +0.27 +0.03 to +0.25 +0.01 to +0.30

Summer 0.39 -0.09 to +0.15 -0.06 to +0.18 -0.08 to +0.19 -0.15 to +0.22

Fall 0.26 -0.02 to +0.27 +0.01 to +0.28 +0.00 to +0.33 -0.06 to +0.39

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.09

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.04

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.05

Summer 0.04 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.03

Fall 0.01 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.04


for the Buzzards Bay basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.


inch of 0-1 days by mid-century, and by 0-2 days by the end of century.



BUZZARDS BAY BASIN

Buzzards Bay Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.76 -0.68 to +3.87 +0.33 to +5.43 +0.70 to +6.13 +0.28 to +6.76

Winter 12.56 -0.30 to +1.56 -0.01 to +1.94 +0.21 to +2.62 +0.13 to +3.90

Spring 12.15 -0.09 to +1.91 -0.06 to +2.18 +0.13 to +2.36 +0.07 to +2.67

Summer 10.99 -0.97 to +1.12 -0.87 to +1.50 -1.80 to +1.92 -2.29 to +1.83

Fall 12.05 -0.74 to +0.82 -1.01 to +1.51 -1.64 to +1.73 -1.72 to +1.21


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Buzzards Bay basin.

o The winter season is expected to experience the greatest change with an increase of 0-

15% by mid-century, and 1-31% by end of century.



The summer season projections for the Buzzards Bay or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Buzzards Bay basin could see a decrease of




Buzzards Bay Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.49 -0.43 to +1.86 -0.28 to +2.26 -0.65 to +3.31 -0.21 to +4.08

Winter 10.11 -0.57 to +1.50 -0.50 to +1.47 -0.40 to +1.93 -0.80 to +2.14

Spring 11.36 -0.62 to +0.76 -0.96 to +1.35 -1.04 to +1.17 -0.92 to +1.40

Summer 14.08 -1.03 to +1.53 -0.77 to +1.93 -0.72 to +2.71 -0.49 to +3.49

Fall 13.31 -0.21 to +2.35 -0.24 to +2.57 -0.24 to +2.74 -0.06 to +3.18




o For all the temporal parameters, the Buzzards Bay basin is expected to see a slight




The summer season is expected to experience an increase of 0-4 days in

consecutive dry days by the end of the century.

CAPE COD BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN CAPE COD BASIN:

Barnstable, Bourne, Brewster, Chatham, Dennis, Eastham, Falmouth, Harwich, Mashpee,

Orleans, Provincetown, Sandwich, Truro, Wellfleet, Yarmouth



CAPE COD BASIN

Cape Cod Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.92 +1.78 to +3.41 +2.41 to +5.39 +2.74 to +7.78 +3.11 to +9.52

Winter 31.92 +1.76 to +3.72 +2.50 to +5.70 +3.07 to +7.69 +3.35 to +9.20

Spring 45.98 +1.73 to +3.23 +2.16 to +5.04 +2.59 to +6.74 +2.94 to +7.69

Summer 68.15 +1.50 to +3.62 +2.08 to +5.66 +2.45 to +8.58 +3.03 to +10.43

Fall 53.32 +1.92 to +3.83 +3.03 to +5.86 +2.85 to +8.29 +3.35 to +10.06

Maximum Temperature

Annual 57.74 +1.63 to +3.38 +2.19 to +5.23 +2.43 to +7.73 +2.82 to +9.26

Winter 39.76 +1.52 to +3.60 +2.10 to +5.27 +2.60 to +7.27 +3.01 to +8.65

Spring 53.74 +1.44 to +3.11 +1.92 to +4.80 +2.30 to +6.54 +2.62 to +7.55

Summer 75.95 +1.35 to +3.48 +1.95 to +5.60 +2.29 to +8.47 +2.68 to +10.27

Fall 61.24 +1.84 to +3.80 +2.81 to +5.83 +2.76 to +8.00 +3.08 to +9.97

Minimum Temperature

Annual 42.09 +1.92 to +3.53 +2.67 to +5.50 +3.06 to +7.84 +3.42 to +9.67

Winter 24.08 +2.06 to +3.97 +2.90 to +6.16 +3.53 to +8.34 +3.81 to +9.85

Spring 38.23 +1.74 to +3.47 +2.51 to +5.28 +2.71 to +6.93 +3.19 to +7.83

Summer 60.35 +1.65 to +3.75 +2.23 to +5.72 +2.61 to +8.66 +3.32 to +10.64

Fall 45.41 +1.92 to +4.01 +3.14 to +5.88 +2.96 to +8.49 +3.63 to +10.28

The Cape Cod basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the






o Summer mid-century increase of 2 °F to 5.6 °F (3-7% increase); end of century increase

of 2.7 °F to 10.3 °F (4-14% increase).

o Fall mid-century increase of 2.8°F to 5.8°F (5-10% increase); end of century increase by



21st century.




10.3 °F (8-23% increase).

CAPE COD BASIN

Cape Cod Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 0.76 +1.17 to +3.89 +1.93 to +9.25 +2.46 to +21.33 +3.23 to +33.89

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.01 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.20 +0.00 to +0.29

Summer 0.73 +1.06 to +3.58 +1.79 to +8.62 +2.34 to +19.96 +3.04 to +31.61

Fall 0.01 +0.06 to +0.28 +0.10 to +0.68 +0.13 to +1.26 +0.19 to +2.26

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.06 +0.08 to +0.63 +0.19 to +1.88 +0.25 to +4.51 +0.26 to +9.49

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 -0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.08

Summer 0.06 +0.07 to +0.61 +0.18 to +1.85 +0.25 to +4.32 +0.26 to +9.11

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.17 +0.00 to +0.42

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.31 +0.01 to +0.80 +0.03 to +1.71

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.31 +0.01 to +0.80 +0.02 to +1.69

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.04


century, the Cape Cod basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Cape Cod basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures

over 90 °F increase by 2 to 9 more days by mid-century, and 3 to 34 more days by the

end of the century.



o By end of century, the Cape Cod basin is expected to have 3 to 32 more days.

CAPE COD BASIN

Cape Cod Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 0.79 -0.08 to -0.37 -0.09 to -0.39 -0.14 to -0.4 -0.15 to -0.4

Winter 0.79 -0.08 to -0.37 -0.09 to -0.39 -0.14 to -0.4 -0.15 to -0.4

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 104.75 -13.60 to -27.72 -19.29 to -41.91 -23.29 to -54.38 -24.54 to -66.71

Winter 70.7 -5.68 to -12.20 -7.00 to -20.22 -10.21 to -29.71 -11.46 to -38.36

Spring 23.8 -5.16 to -11.14 -7.22 to -14.64 -7.87 to -17.32 -9.50 to -18.96

Summer 0.00 -0.05 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.05 to -0.00

Fall 10.16 -3.40 to -6.37 -4.69 to -8.2 -5.09 to -9.62 -5.34 to -10.71


century, the Cape Cod basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum




o Winter is expected to have 7 to 20 fewer days by mid-century, and 11 to 38 fewer days

by end of century.

o Spring is expected to have 7 to 15 fewer days by mid-century, and 10 to 19 fewer days

by end of century.


of century.

CAPE COD BASIN

Cape Cod Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 5956.64 -475.48 to -913.39 -685.90 to -1374.26 -773.67 to -1828.23 -854.04 to -2171.56

Winter 2996.33 -164.51 to -347.77 -220.16 to -520.87 -277.06 to -697.53 -304.13 to -831.96

Spring 1753.89 -152.01 to -285.19 -190.19 to -444.68 -229.91 to -584.74 -267.48 to -649.94

Summer 94.49 -30.02 to -57.56 -41.95 to -69.89 -44.65 to -80.65 -44.99 to -85.45

Fall 1105.61 -131.82 to -268.87 -226.73 to -393.30 -215.14 to -547.22 -242.01 to -619.87

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 435.71 +144.74 to +364.43 +224.26 to +601.17 +250.48 to +965.18 +314.49 to +1226.21

Winter nan +0.13 to +1.43 +0.38 to +3.50 +0.92 to +3.19 -0.34 to +3.91

Spring 7.08 +3.48 to +9.44 +4.94 to +20.08 +5.86 to +34.34 +7.02 to +52.03

Summer 384.03 +107.28 to +279.41 +148.81 to +457.16 +184.27 to +701.82 +229.32 to +875.35

Fall 43.77 +30.85 to +80.41 +41.77 to +138.18 +48.96 to +224.33 +71.67 to +296.72

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2421.38 +343.19 to +690.79 +460.30 to +1078.12 +519.05 to +1678.13 +617.96 to +2104.38

Winter 4.84 +0.24 to +9.74 +0.28 to +15.26 +2.10 to +25.74 +4.23 to +35.89

Spring 197.63 +50.56 to +105.22 +69.23 to +195.43 +77.64 to +277.13 +77.88 to +342.92

Summer 1669.64 +137.95 to +332.36 +190.73 to +520.48 +224.93 to +789.31 +278.12 to +958.80

Fall 546.41 +107.92 to +248.13 +174.67 to +396.65 +168.86 to +571.84 +215.05 to +716.85


end of the century, the Cape Cod basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.

o The winter season is expected to see a decrease of 220-521 degree-days by mid-century

(a decrease of 7-17%), and a decrease of 304-832 degree-days by the end of century (a

decrease of 10-28%).



century.



century.







o The summer season is projected to increase by 11-31% (190.73-520.48 degree-days) by

mid-century, and by 17-57% (278-959 degree-days) by end of century.





CAPE COD BASIN

Cape Cod Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.02 +0.16 to +1.76 +0.66 to +2.66 +0.45 to +2.92 +0.55 to +3.41

Winter 1.45 -0.10 to +0.62 +0.08 to +0.67 +0.02 to +1.04 +0.09 to +1.35

Spring 1.65 +0.08 to +0.65 +0.08 to +0.90 +0.22 to +1.05 +0.29 to +1.20

Summer 1.92 -0.18 to +0.55 -0.13 to +0.78 -0.40 to +0.66 -0.46 to +0.58

Fall 2.01 -0.23 to +0.62 -0.13 to +0.85 -0.31 to +0.94 -0.35 to +1.11

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.75 -0.04 to +0.43 +0.07 to +0.52 +0.08 to +0.71 +0.05 to +0.74

Winter 0.09 -0.05 to +0.16 -0.02 to +0.15 -0.02 to +0.20 -0.02 to +0.27

Spring 0.05 -0.03 to +0.13 +0.01 to +0.18 +0.02 to +0.19 -0.01 to +0.25

Summer 0.33 -0.07 to +0.15 -0.05 to +0.23 -0.05 to +0.20 -0.05 to +0.22

Fall 0.28 -0.04 to +0.13 -0.01 to +0.20 -0.01 to +0.23 -0.07 to +0.31

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.05

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 -0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03

Fall 0.01 -0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.03


for the Cape Cod basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





CAPE COD BASIN

Cape Cod Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 44.94 -1.08 to +3.47 -0.38 to +4.54 -0.78 to +5.79 -0.83 to +5.45

Winter 11.63 -0.40 to +1.24 -0.22 to +1.59 -0.05 to +2.10 -0.04 to +3.13

Spring 11.51 -0.04 to +1.48 -0.26 to +1.67 -0.21 to +2.08 +0.08 to +2.45

Summer 10.24 -0.95 to +1.19 -1.05 to +1.73 -1.64 to +2.00 -2.22 to +1.66

Fall 11.62 -0.96 to +0.90 -0.99 to +1.09 -1.40 to +1.64 -1.52 to +1.26


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Cape Cod basin.

o The winter season is expected to experience the greatest change with a decrease of 2%

to an increase of 14% by mid-century, and an increase of 0-27% by end of century.



The summer season projections for the Cape Cod or basin could see a decrease

of 1.1 to an increase of 1.7 inches by mid-century (decrease of 10% to increase

of 17%), and a decrease of 2.2 to an increase of 1.7 inches by the end of the


The fall season projections for the Cape Cod basin could see a decrease of -1 to

an increase of 1.1 inches by mid-century (decrease of 9% to increase of 9%), and

a decrease of 1.5 to an increase of 1.3 inches by the end of the century

(decrease of 13% to increase of 11%).

Cape Cod Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 18.72 -1.06 to +1.99 -0.56 to +2.62 -0.34 to +3.63 -0.26 to +4.65

Winter 10.19 -0.52 to +1.53 -0.44 to +1.46 -0.31 to +1.83 -0.94 to +1.97

Spring 11.59 -0.99 to +1.21 -0.86 to +1.50 -1.00 to +1.48 -1.34 to +1.58

Summer 15.38 -1.00 to +2.02 -0.83 to +2.61 -0.89 to +4.38 -1.03 to +5.26

Fall 13.05 -0.57 to +2.45 -0.04 to +2.29 +0.17 to +2.82 +0.04 to +3.45




o For all the temporal parameters, the Cape Cod basin is expected to see a slight decrease

to an increase in consecutive dry days throughout this century.



The summer season is expected to experience a decrease of 1 day to an

increase of 5 days in consecutive dry days by the end of the century.

CHARLES BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN CHARLES BASIN:

Ashland, Arlington, Bellingham, Belmont, Boston, Brookline, Cambridge, Dedham, Dover,

Franklin, Holliston, Hopedale, Hopkinton, Lexington, Lincoln, Medfield, Medway, Mendon,

Milford, Millis, Natick, Needham, Newton, Norfolk, Sherborn, Somerville, Walpole, Waltham,

Watertown, Wayland, Wellesley, Weston, Westwood, and Wrentham



CHARLES BASIN

Charles Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.38 +2.05 to +4.02 +2.67 to +6.07 +3.23 to +8.79 +3.49 to +10.72

Winter 28.53 +1.87 to +4.29 +2.52 to +6.43 +3.14 to +8.21 +3.58 to +9.58

Spring 47.21 +1.49 to +3.29 +2.21 to +5.47 +2.41 to +7.82 +2.99 to +9.59

Summer 69.8 +2.02 to +4.24 +2.62 to +6.98 +3.12 to +10.20 +3.72 to +12.67

Fall 51.6 +2.03 to +4.80 +3.60 to +6.46 +3.37 to +9.28 +3.85 to +11.50

Maximum Temperature

Annual 60.08 +1.86 to +3.81 +2.48 to +5.92 +2.95 to +8.83 +3.18 to +10.62

Winter 38.29 +1.52 to +3.92 +2.10 to +5.89 +2.60 to +7.50 +2.96 to +8.71

Spring 58.1 +1.41 to +3.24 +1.94 to +5.42 +2.33 to +7.92 +2.90 to +9.57

Summer 80.95 +1.88 to +4.33 +2.51 to +6.92 +3.06 to +10.39 +3.55 to +12.86

Fall 62.58 +2.17 to +4.58 +3.40 to +6.64 +3.23 to +9.31 +3.67 to +11.76

Minimum Temperature

Annual 38.68 +2.15 to +4.28 +2.91 to +6.17 +3.51 to +8.75 +3.81 to +10.80

Winter 18.76 +2.22 to +4.86 +2.91 to +6.97 +3.74 to +8.86 +4.12 to +10.28

Spring 36.32 +1.57 to +3.40 +2.47 to +5.81 +2.55 to +7.63 +3.07 to +9.46

Summer 58.64 +2.05 to +4.36 +2.72 to +7.25 +3.18 to +10.01 +3.89 to +12.47

Fall 40.62 +1.97 to +4.95 +3.55 to +6.40 +3.54 to +9.12 +4.04 to +11.40

The Charles basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the 21st

century. Maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase throughout the

end of the century. These increased temperature trends are expected for annual and seasonal

projections.




of 3.6 °F to 12.9 °F (4-16% increase).




21st century.

o Winter mid-century increase of 2.9 °F to 7 °F (16-37% increase); end of century increase

by 4.1 °F to 10.3 °F (22-55% increase).


11.4 °F (10-28% increase).

CHARLES BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 8.95 +7.08 to +19.58 +10.01 to +35.04 +12.74 to +56.79 +15.17 to +75.87

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.51 +0.10 to +0.72 +0.24 to +1.48 +0.28 to +2.60 +0.24 to +4.19

Summer 8.05 +6.21 to +16.77 +8.42 to +29.96 +11.02 to +45.92 +13.47 to +59.41

Fall 0.39 +0.57 to +2.43 +0.97 to +5.49 +1.00 to +9.62 +1.51 to +12.74

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 1.15 +2.15 to +8.28 +3.17 to +15.90 +3.79 to +31.89 +5.68 to +48.95

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.01 +0.03 to +0.22 +0.02 to +0.43 +0.06 to +0.89 +0.08 to +1.69

Summer 1.12 +2.03 to +7.58 +2.81 to +14.42 +3.54 to +28.61 +5.42 to +41.97

Fall 0.01 +0.10 to +0.78 +0.16 to +1.55 +0.17 to +3.66 +0.32 to +5.35

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.05 +0.24 to +1.76 +0.39 to +4.80 +0.58 to +10.99 +0.79 to +20.49

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.38

Summer 0.05 +0.20 to +1.59 +0.36 to +4.62 +0.55 to +10.30 +0.76 to +18.92

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.12 +0.00 to +0.25 +0.01 to +0.72 +0.02 to +1.29


century, the Charles basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Charles basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures

over 90 °F increase by 10 to 35 more days by mid-century, and 15 to 76 more days by

the end of the century.



o By end of century, the Charles basin is expected to have 13 to 59 more days.

CHARLES BASIN

Charles Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 4.7 -1.23 to -2.57 -1.48 to -3.17 -1.71 to -3.42 -1.76 to -3.59

Winter 4.64 -1.22 to -2.44 -1.46 to -3.04 -1.67 to -3.33 -1.72 to -3.5

Spring 0.06 -0.15 to +0.02 -0.15 to +0.00 -0.01 to -0.20 -0.01 to -0.20

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.01 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 136.36 -10.38 to -25.73 -16.89 to -38.60 -20.22 to -52.35 -22.22 to -63.10

Winter 81.31 -2.63 to -7.17 -3.40 to -11.99 -5.10 to -19.82 -6.44 to -25.53

Spring 31.73 -2.98 to -10.63 -5.85 to -14.62 -6.94 to -19.10 -7.82 to -20.44

Summer 0.00 -0.07 to -0.00 -0.12 to -0.00 -0.10 to -0.00 -0.09 to -0.00

Fall 23.29 -4.43 to -9.42 -6.96 to -11.83 -7.57 to -15.49 -6.97 to -17.59


century, the Charles basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





of century.


end of century.


end of century.

CHARLES BASIN

Charles Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6328.79 -482.80 to -1015.09 -659.94 to -1443.88 -777.15 to -1935.50 -875.21 to -2311.14

Winter 3302.52 -169.76 to -396.84 -218.96 to -596.73 -278.46 to -745.47 -323.04 to -880.92

Spring 1661.09 -121.25 to -276.56 -181.72 to -457.01 -203.93 to -611.33 -263.54 to -723.96

Summer 84.5 -28.58 to -50.11 -37.84 to -66.50 -43.38 to -74.61 -45.10 to -78.21

Fall 1274.38 -142.80 to -342.13 -260.75 to -422.77 -242.72 to -596.72 -258.78 to -682.61

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 608.49 +228.69 to +462.31 +297.76 to +788.87 +347.81 to +1225.11 +407.01 to +1598.14

Winter nan -0.41 to +2.30 -1.37 to +2.65 +0.85 to +2.80 +1.12 to +4.47

Spring 25.37 +12.07 to +29.93 +19.51 to +58.93 +23.22 to +102.84 +21.45 to +140.46

Summer 525.96 +155.73 to +344.85 +192.29 to +579.28 +236.22 to +867.11 +284.90 to +1089.31

Fall 54.14 +39.03 to +103.48 +55.23 to +176.77 +64.43 to +274.41 +93.13 to +360.52

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2650.53 +407.43 to +808.80 +552.96 to +1276.46 +628.97 to +1988.88 +720.08 to +2491.33

Winter 6.62 -0.41 to +13.05 +0.65 to +15.00 +4.01 to +24.04 +3.15 to +30.97

Spring 317.54 +64.59 to +140.52 +89.94 to +248.03 +95.73 to +391.83 +110.39 to +507.62

Summer 1821.53 +185.88 to +389.66 +239.97 to +641.38 +286.30 to +938.17 +341.56 to +1164.84

Fall 501.28 +115.58 to +304.16 +194.56 to +423.26 +184.29 to +629.36 +233.48 to +798.72


end of the century, the Charles basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.

o The winter season is expected to see a decrease of 7-18% (219-597 degree-days) by

mid-century, and a decrease of 10-27% (323-881 degree-days) by the end of century.



century.



century.













CHARLES BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.69 +0.30 to +2.15 +0.79 to +2.95 +1.17 to +3.10 +1.30 to +4.23

Winter 1.96 -0.00 to +0.81 +0.26 to +1.14 +0.43 to +1.53 +0.43 to +1.91

Spring 1.56 -0.11 to +0.60 +0.01 to +0.92 +0.12 to +1.11 +0.24 to +1.28

Summer 1.83 -0.10 to +0.58 -0.05 to +0.77 -0.17 to +0.75 -0.17 to +0.75

Fall 2.34 -0.30 to +0.78 -0.19 to +0.98 -0.37 to +0.72 -0.43 to +0.89

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.8 -0.00 to +0.41 +0.07 to +0.48 +0.09 to +0.51 +0.11 to +0.68

Winter 0.1 -0.02 to +0.10 -0.01 to +0.13 -0.01 to +0.17 -0.00 to +0.22

Spring 0.11 -0.01 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.12 -0.02 to +0.14 +0.01 to +0.23

Summer 0.37 -0.09 to +0.15 +0.00 to +0.24 -0.08 to +0.18 -0.05 to +0.19

Fall 0.22 -0.12 to +0.21 -0.04 to +0.21 -0.06 to +0.22 -0.07 to +0.25

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.04 -0.04 to +0.09 +0.00 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.15

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Summer 0.02 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.06

Fall 0.02 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.07


for the Charles basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.




of 0-1 days by mid-century, and by 0-1.2 days by the end of century.

CHARLES BASIN

Charles Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 46.55 -0.04 to +4.77 +0.23 to +6.13 +1.24 to +7.47 +0.74 to +8.18

Winter 11.73 -0.43 to +1.96 +0.14 to +2.43 +0.40 to +3.01 +0.32 to +4.14

Spring 11.71 -0.05 to +2.13 -0.01 to +2.09 +0.19 to +2.42 +0.12 to +2.44

Summer 10.9 -0.39 to +1.58 -0.40 to +2.12 -0.95 to +2.56 -1.46 to +2.32

Fall 12.24 -1.16 to +1.25 -1.24 to +1.71 -1.62 to +1.59 -1.76 to +1.67


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Charles basin.


1-21% by mid-century, and of 3-35% by end of century.



The summer season projections for the Charles or basin could see a decrease of




The fall season projections for the Charles basin could see a decrease of 1.2 to

an increase of 1.7 inches by mid-century (decrease of 10% to increase of 14%),

and a decrease of 1.8 to an increase of 1.7 inches by the end of the century


Charles Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.92 -0.47 to +1.46 -0.65 to +2.35 -1.00 to +2.97 -0.77 to +2.71

Winter 11.52 -0.59 to +1.49 -0.57 to +1.62 -0.73 to +1.91 -1.07 to +1.80

Spring 11.47 -1.02 to +0.75 -1.18 to +1.21 -1.57 to +1.38 -1.26 to +1.21

Summer 12.44 -0.86 to +1.69 -1.05 to +2.10 -1.15 to +2.59 -1.08 to +1.97

Fall 12.6 -0.11 to +1.95 -0.20 to +2.94 -0.34 to +3.06 -0.13 to +3.20




o For all the temporal parameters, the Charles basin is expected to see a slight decrease






CHICOPEE BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN CHICOPEE BASIN:

Barre, Belchertown, Brimfield, Brookfield, Chicopee, East Brookfield, Hardwick, Hubbardston,

Leicester, Ludlow, Monson, New Braintree, New Salem, North Brookfield, Oakham, Orange,

Palmer, Paxton, Pelham, Petersham, Phillipston, Princeton, Rutland, Shutesbury, Spencer,

Springfield, Sturbridge, Templeton, Wales, Ware, Warren, Wendell, West Brookfield,

Westminster, and Wilbraham



CHICOPEE BASIN

Chicopee Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 46.16 +2.24 to +4.48 +3.03 to +6.40 +3.58 to +8.97 +4.01 to +10.98

Winter 24.6 +2.34 to +5.20 +2.98 to +7.77 +3.83 to +9.35 +4.15 to +10.76

Spring 44.45 +1.47 to +3.34 +2.32 to +5.34 +2.63 to +7.43 +3.06 to +9.15

Summer 66.8 +2.35 to +4.58 +3.20 to +7.15 +3.58 to +10.34 +4.04 to +12.77

Fall 48.4 +2.26 to +5.32 +3.91 to +6.80 +3.79 to +9.55 +4.28 to +11.71

Maximum Temperature

Annual 57.39 +2.09 to +4.24 +2.75 to +6.47 +3.22 to +9.09 +3.63 to +10.97

Winter 34.7 +1.90 to +4.61 +2.58 to +7.03 +3.13 to +8.48 +3.49 to +9.66

Spring 55.97 +1.31 to +3.31 +2.19 to +5.29 +2.59 to +7.65 +3.09 to +9.31

Summer 78.72 +2.07 to +4.69 +2.96 to +7.32 +3.43 to +10.63 +3.89 to +13.15

Fall 59.75 +2.43 to +5.11 +3.78 to +7.07 +3.57 to +9.85 +4.23 to +12.20

Minimum Temperature

Annual 34.93 +2.41 to +4.81 +3.33 to +6.59 +3.91 to +8.91 +4.37 to +10.94

Winter 14.5 +2.62 to +5.87 +3.46 to +8.41 +4.42 to +10.22 +4.72 to +11.69

Spring 32.93 +1.59 to +3.56 +2.42 to +5.75 +2.76 to +7.33 +3.11 to +8.94

Summer 54.87 +2.48 to +4.68 +3.37 to +7.26 +3.73 to +10.05 +4.22 to +12.40

Fall 37.06 +2.04 to +5.41 +3.71 to +6.70 +3.87 to +9.25 +4.31 to +11.50

The Chicopee basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.9 °F to 13.2 °F (5-17% increase).




21st century.




11.5 °F (12-31% increase).

CHICOPEE BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 3.34 +4.84 to +15.43 +7.78 to +28.70 +9.27 to +49.25 +11.38 to +68.89

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.16 +0.08 to +0.72 +0.21 to +1.24 +0.23 to +2.52 +0.17 to +3.98

Summer 3.04 +4.21 to +13.33 +6.76 to +24.79 +8.22 to +41.76 +9.94 to +56.04

Fall 0.15 +0.34 to +1.34 +0.40 to +3.12 +0.42 to +6.65 +0.75 to +9.29

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.15 +1.02 to +5.24 +1.71 to +11.67 +2.37 to +24.99 +3.00 to +40.27

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.14 +0.01 to +0.27 +0.01 to +0.64 +0.01 to +1.39

Summer 0.15 +1.02 to +4.69 +1.51 to +10.76 +2.07 to +22.38 +2.76 to +35.78

Fall 0.01 +0.01 to +0.44 +0.04 to +0.74 +0.06 to +1.90 +0.09 to +3.12

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.06 to +0.93 +0.07 to +2.70 +0.15 to +7.20 +0.13 to +15.75

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.30

Summer 0.00 +0.04 to +0.76 +0.06 to +2.62 +0.14 to +6.67 +0.12 to +14.69

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.08 +0.00 to +0.18 +0.00 to +0.44 +0.00 to +0.76


century, the Chicopee basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Chicopee basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Chicopee basin is expected to have 10 to 56 more days.

CHICOPEE BASIN

Chicopee Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 11.43 -3.83 to -6.82 -4.78 to -8.18 -5.36 to -8.67 -5.20 to -9.27

Winter 11 -3.68 to -6.75 -4.52 to -7.82 -5.08 to -8.43 -5.05 to -8.95

Spring 0.43 -0.11 to -0.44 -0.12 to -0.43 -0.15 to -0.49 -0.16 to -0.52

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.04 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 161.76 -10.68 to -28.08 -19.27 to -37.67 -21.85 to -52.29 -23.39 to -62.50

Winter 85.68 -1.00 to -5.36 -2.10 to -7.82 -2.94 to -14.95 -3.66 to -19.22

Spring 43.07 -3.35 to -10.27 -5.88 to -14.83 -6.68 to -19.09 -8.26 to -20.73

Summer 0.08 -0.01 to -0.26 -0.02 to -0.39 -0.02 to -0.36 -0.02 to -0.36

Fall 32.9 -5.52 to -13.12 -9.75 to -15.95 -9.40 to -20.21 -9.84 to -23.05


century, the Chicopee basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





of century.


of century.


end of century.

CHICOPEE BASIN

Chicopee Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7263.18 -598.23 to -1245.45 -827.95 to -1728.35 -957.79 to -2273.47 -1088.77 to -2653.16

Winter 3657.35 -194.41 to -483.79 -263.16 to -712.01 -338.43 to -849.64 -383.42 to -990.51

Spring 1903.92 -121.76 to -288.77 -198.02 to -455.03 -220.73 to -597.68 -271.49 to -714.33

Summer 163.13 -58.34 to -97.51 -79.84 to -121.35 -84.63 to -139.40 -91.98 to -144.40

Fall 1539.18 -178.57 to -422.17 -312.87 to -500.90 -292.93 to -695.09 -316.99 to -796.44

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 375.33 +197.83 to +408.33 +267.27 to +697.70 +314.77 to +1073.13 +360.68 to +1425.81

Winter nan -0.28 to +3.14 +0.27 to +6.75 -0.15 to +3.69 +0.02 to +3.87

Spring 14.88 +8.50 to +24.26 +13.79 to +47.76 +19.40 to +80.37 +16.3 to +112.14

Summer 328.39 +162.07 to +324.28 +202.84 to +535.84 +234.14 to +816.39 +267.92 to +1034.04

Fall 28.51 +22.80 to +72.48 +37.52 to +120.15 +45.66 to +203.67 +61.26 to +276.10

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2158.32 +405.46 to +800.14 +544.68 to +1230.84 +656.17 to +1872.87 +737.49 to +2353.15

Winter 3.47 -0.53 to +8.22 -0.44 to +9.01 +0.30 to +12.75 +0.92 to +18.42

Spring 241.52 +58.00 to +126.09 +86.62 to +221.45 +106.09 to +332.57 +109.04 to +434.93

Summer 1546.4 +216.05 to +420.50 +292.13 to +656.38 +327.44 to +950.51 +368.49 to +1173.83

Fall 356.65 +106.87 to +278.80 +172.30 to +385.46 +166.91 to +576.51 +214.04 to +724.69


end of the century, the Chicopee basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.











o Fall is expected to see an increase by 48-108% (172-385 degree-days) by mid-century


CHICOPEE BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 6.46 -0.01 to +1.93 +0.73 to +3.08 +0.83 to +3.00 +0.69 to +4.12

Winter 1.11 -0.07 to +0.59 +0.04 to +0.89 +0.16 to +1.27 +0.24 to +1.62

Spring 1.39 -0.16 to +0.54 -0.03 to +0.67 +0.09 to +1.04 +0.12 to +1.36

Summer 1.9 -0.30 to +0.67 -0.14 to +0.92 -0.19 to +0.78 -0.22 to +0.84

Fall 2.04 -0.24 to +0.79 -0.09 to +0.82 -0.21 to +0.99 -0.34 to +1.02

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.53 -0.04 to +0.34 +0.01 to +0.34 +0.00 to +0.40 +0.02 to +0.52

Winter 0.02 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.09

Spring 0.09 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.12 +0.01 to +0.17

Summer 0.25 -0.08 to +0.13 -0.06 to +0.15 -0.07 to +0.15 -0.06 to +0.21

Fall 0.17 -0.04 to +0.16 -0.02 to +0.19 -0.02 to +0.17 -0.03 to +0.21

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.00 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.07

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.04

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04


for the Chicopee basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.



o The spring season is expected to an increase in days with precipitation over one inch of

0-1 days by mid-century, and an increase of 0-1 days by the end of century.

CHICOPEE BASIN

Chicopee Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 46.64 -0.23 to +4.66 +1.14 to +5.98 +1.76 to +7.03 +1.37 to +7.67

Winter 10.6 -0.38 to +1.94 +0.05 to +2.44 +0.32 to +2.93 +0.63 to +3.93

Spring 11.85 -0.13 to +2.09 +0.01 to +1.85 +0.29 to +2.57 +0.15 to +2.75

Summer 12.07 -0.23 to +1.47 -0.23 to +2.00 -0.50 to +2.04 -1.15 to +2.01

Fall 12.1 -1.07 to +1.33 -1.18 to +1.70 -1.59 to +1.78 -1.72 to +1.49


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Chicopee basin.





The summer season projections for the Chicopee or basin could see a decrease

of 0.2 to an increase of 2 inches by mid-century (decrease of 2% to increase of



The fall season projections for the Chicopee basin could see a decrease of 1.2 to

an increase of 1.7 inches by mid-century (decrease of 10% to increase of 14%),



Chicopee Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 15.63 -0.56 to +1.44 -0.93 to +1.97 -1.12 to +1.97 -0.69 to +2.74

Winter 11.09 -0.80 to +0.87 -0.85 to +1.38 -1.26 to +1.24 -1.04 to +1.58

Spring 11.31 -1.13 to +0.57 -0.96 to +0.88 -1.49 to +0.91 -1.22 to +1.01

Summer 11.17 -0.72 to +1.34 -0.63 to +1.27 -0.96 to +1.94 -1.36 to +2.29

Fall 11.74 -0.26 to +1.75 -0.51 to +2.67 -0.70 to +2.73 -0.26 to +2.77




o For all the temporal parameters, the Chicopee basin is expected to see a slight decrease






CONNECTICUT BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN CONNECTICUT BASIN:

Agawam, Amherst, Ashfield, Belchertown, Bernardston, Chesterfield, Chicopee, Conway,

Deerfield, East Longmeadow, Easthampton, Erving, Gill, Goshen, Granby, Greenfield, Hadley,

Hampden, Hatfield, Holyoke, Huntington, Leverett, Leyden, Longmeadow, Ludlow, Monson,

Montague, Montgomery, Northampton, Northfield, Pelham, Royalston, Shutesbury, South

Hadley, Southampton, Southwick, Springfield, Sunderland, Warwick, Wendell, West Springfield,

Westfield, Westhampton, Whately, Wilbraham, and Williamsburg



CONNECTICUT BASIN

Connecticut Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 46.98 +2.18 to +4.46 +3.00 to +6.43 +3.57 to +9.00 +4.04 to +10.94

Winter 25.01 +2.36 to +5.37 +3.02 to +7.99 +3.95 to +9.54 +4.18 to +10.83

Spring 45.35 +1.51 to +3.30 +2.26 to +5.21 +2.76 to +7.23 +3.11 to +8.81

Summer 67.93 +2.19 to +4.54 +3.05 to +7.24 +3.44 to +10.52 +3.91 to +12.94

Fall 49.24 +2.27 to +5.23 +3.81 to +6.81 +3.75 to +9.57 +4.21 to +11.69

Maximum Temperature

Annual 58.45 +2.03 to +4.24 +2.65 to +6.56 +3.18 to +9.13 +3.63 to +11.03

Winter 35.23 +1.96 to +4.66 +2.61 to +7.11 +3.19 to +8.53 +3.43 to +9.63

Spring 57.16 +1.38 to +3.23 +2.13 to +5.16 +2.66 to +7.53 +3.17 to +8.99

Summer 80.18 +1.89 to +4.67 +2.75 to +7.45 +3.25 to +10.93 +3.76 to +13.41

Fall 60.8 +2.47 to +5.04 +3.65 to +7.16 +3.54 to +9.91 +4.21 to +12.20

Minimum Temperature

Annual 35.51 +2.38 to +4.81 +3.35 to +6.64 +3.93 to +8.89 +4.37 to +10.89

Winter 14.8 +2.63 to +6.03 +3.56 to +8.76 +4.51 to +10.54 +4.94 to +11.83

Spring 33.53 +1.62 to +3.63 +2.38 to +5.64 +2.96 to +7.07 +3.29 to +8.59

Summer 55.67 +2.34 to +4.62 +3.21 to +7.33 +3.63 to +10.13 +4.07 to +12.49

Fall 37.68 +1.97 to +5.33 +3.58 to +6.64 +3.82 to +9.22 +4.21 to +11.37

The Connecticut basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout







of 3.8 °F to 13.4 °F (5-17% increase).




21st century.



o Fall mid-century of 3.6 °F to 6.6 °F (10-18% increase); end of century increase of 4.2°F to

11.4 °F (11-30% increase).

CONNECTICUT BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 6.41 +6.36 to +19.72 +9.87 to +35.35 +11.98 to +57.07 +14.50 to +76.01

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.39 +0.14 to +0.91 +0.30 to +1.76 +0.37 to +3.31 +0.28 to +5.00

Summer 5.73 +5.53 to +16.97 +8.31 to +29.50 10.37 to +46.30 +12.47 to +60.30

Fall 0.29 +0.44 to +2.09 +0.51 to +4.58 +0.61 to +8.80 +1.02 to +11.94

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.46 +1.74 to +7.34 +2.77 to +16.31 +3.55 to +32.96 +4.56 to +49.67

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.26 +0.02 to +0.49 +0.04 to +1.03 +0.03 to +1.93

Summer 0.45 +1.71 to +6.53 +2.54 to +14.84 +3.05 to +28.97 +4.16 to +43.03

Fall 0.01 +0.06 to +0.63 +0.09 to +1.19 +0.13 to +3.23 +0.20 to +4.87

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.14 to +1.54 +0.22 to +4.35 +0.41 to +11.64 +0.38 to +23.33

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.45

Summer 0.00 +0.13 to +1.45 +0.20 to +4.17 +0.36 to +10.72 +0.33 to +21.46

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.37 +0.01 to +0.75 +0.00 to +1.29


century, the Connecticut basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Connecticut basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Connecticut basin is expected to have 12 to 60 more days.

CONNECTICUT BASIN

Connecticut Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 11.33 -4.01 to -7.02 -4.88 to -8.3 -5.42 to -8.76 -5.53 to -9.57

Winter 11 -3.84 to -6.82 -4.67 to -7.96 -5.11 to -8.52 -5.33 to -9.1

Spring 0.38 -0.08 to -0.44 -0.12 to -0.44 -0.18 to -0.49 -0.18 to -0.55

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.01 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 158.63 -10.58 to -28.13 -18.57 to -37.28 -22.18 to -50.76 -22.88 to -59.79

Winter 85.33 -1.15 to -5.9 -2.37 to -8.5 -3.50 to -15.82 -4.26 to -19.49

Spring 41.52 -3.47 to -9.56 -6.03 to -13.97 -6.70 to -17.87 -8.82 to -19.42

Summer 0.02 -0.01 to -0.17 -0.01 to -0.27 -0.01 to -0.23 -0.01 to -0.26

Fall 31.7 -4.87 to -12.57 -9.60 to -15.50 -8.89 to -19.96 -9.36 to -22.29


century, the Connecticut basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





of century.


of century.


end of century.

CONNECTICUT BASIN

Connecticut Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7038.04 -579.08 to -1220.89 -807.65 to -1696.71 -932.31 to -2213.81 -1061.27 to -2563.22

Winter 3617.34 -196.64 to -492.19 -267.53 to -731.67 -348.79 to -867.16 -385.45 to -997.60

Spring 1827.32 -122.30 to -279.16 -188.81 to -436.93 -225.95 to -566.74 -272.18 to -666.52

Summer 127 -45.72 to -80.45 -63.18 to -101.77 -66.76 to -116.60 -72.74 to -119.29

Fall 1471.22 -176.19 to -404.39 -298.62 to -486.71 -283.22 to -674.74 -306.64 to -768.06

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 459.27 +200.92 to +430.52 +272.64 to +749.47 +326.52 to +1142.40 +379.72 to +1504.58

Winter nan -0.39 to +2.36 +0.05 to +6.58 -0.14 to +3.38 -0.29 to +7.15

Spring 20.23 +10.02 to +28.89 +17.52 to +55.39 +21.11 to +92.67 +20.81 to +121.55

Summer 396.24 +162.41 to +335.42 +204.13 to +564.51 +235.28 to +853.52 +270.64 to +1075.43

Fall 37.72 +25.68 to +84.68 +40.57 to +136.51 +49.64 to +225.83 +63.95 to +304.46

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2348.43 +392.37 to +801.41 +536.06 to +1252.31 +652.08 to +1894.77 +739.11 to +2379.52

Winter 3.8 -0.26 to +8.95 +0.09 to +9.32 +0.51 to +14.24 +1.70 to +19.27

Spring 278.98 +59.68 to +130.77 +91.58 to +225.48 +117.65 to +331.37 +117.61 to +434.70

Summer 1649.87 +201.11 to +416.74 +279.05 to +664.79 +315.32 to +966.48 +358.57 to +1190.01

Fall 403.13 +105.14 to +284.19 +169.55 to +395.11 +166.52 to +591.21 +211.39 to +734.09


end of the century, the Connecticut basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.





century.



century.













CONNECTICUT BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 6.5 +0.05 to +2.22 +0.52 to +3.15 +0.80 to +2.82 +0.67 to +4.35

Winter 1.04 -0.04 to +0.74 +0.05 to +1.01 +0.06 to +1.30 +0.22 to +1.64

Spring 1.56 -0.08 to +0.62 +0.08 to +0.81 +0.17 to +1.20 +0.21 to +1.62

Summer 1.98 -0.37 to +0.57 -0.19 to +0.97 -0.34 to +0.66 -0.38 to +0.74

Fall 1.89 -0.28 to +0.70 -0.17 to +0.82 -0.27 to +1.00 -0.40 to +1.17

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.55 -0.05 to +0.40 -0.01 to +0.39 +0.00 to +0.45 +0.04 to +0.58

Winter 0.03 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.09

Spring 0.1 -0.03 to +0.10 -0.03 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.17 +0.00 to +0.25

Summer 0.26 -0.06 to +0.16 -0.07 to +0.17 -0.06 to +0.17 -0.09 to +0.19

Fall 0.16 -0.06 to +0.17 -0.06 to +0.16 -0.04 to +0.18 -0.05 to +0.19

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.00 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.05

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to +0.02 -0.02 to +0.02 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04


for the Connecticut basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.


inch of 0-1 days by mid-century, and of 0-2 days by the end of century.


of 0-1 days by mid-century, and of 0-2 days by the end of century.

CONNECTICUT BASIN

Connecticut Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 46.39 -0.40 to +4.99 +1.25 to +6.22 +1.95 to +7.26 +1.68 to +8.30

Winter 10.34 -0.39 to +2.08 +0.07 to +2.59 +0.30 to +3.03 +0.73 to +3.87

Spring 12.12 -0.05 to +2.09 +0.32 to +2.13 +0.57 to +2.80 +0.45 to +2.87

Summer 11.98 -0.37 to +1.76 -0.17 to +2.13 -0.34 to +1.85 -1.03 to +1.90

Fall 11.94 -1.20 to +1.48 -1.26 to +1.65 -1.50 to +1.78 -1.73 to +1.49


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Connecticut basin.





The summer season projections for the Connecticut or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Connecticut basin could see a decrease of 1.3

to an increase of 1.7 inches by mid-century (decrease of 11% to increase of 14%



Connecticut Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.41 -0.18 to +1.34 -0.42 to +1.75 -0.73 to +2.26 -0.35 to +2.44

Winter 11.4 -0.77 to +1.14 -0.57 to +1.30 -0.80 to +1.18 -1.21 to +1.47

Spring 11.95 -1.05 to +0.50 -0.91 to +1.05 -1.24 to +1.13 -1.24 to +0.76

Summer 11.57 -0.70 to +1.46 -0.61 to +1.07 -0.91 to +1.61 -1.37 to +1.87

Fall 12.03 -0.12 to +1.72 -0.21 to +2.35 -0.61 to +2.61 -0.13 to +2.78




o For all the temporal parameters, the Connecticut basin is expected to see a slight






DEERFIELD BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN DEERFIELD BASIN:

Adams, Ashfield, Bernardston, Buckland, Charlemont, Colrain, Conway, Deerfield, Florida,

Goshen, Greenfield, Hawley, Heath, Leyden, Monroe, North Adams, Plainfield, Rowe, Savoy,

and Shelburne



DEERFIELD BASIN

Deerfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 44.39 +2.24 to +4.62 +3.15 to +6.72 +3.72 to +9.38 +4.22 to +11.35

Winter 22.22 +2.41 to +5.71 +3.11 to +8.61 +4.19 to +10.32 +4.60 to +11.69

Spring 42.71 +1.91 to +3.81 +2.67 to +5.70 +3.22 to +7.99 +3.75 to +9.51

Summer 65.44 +2.22 to +4.61 +3.09 to +7.26 +3.60 to +10.46 +4.09 to +12.76

Fall 46.8 +2.18 to +5.05 +3.53 to +6.62 +3.51 to +9.60 +3.82 to +11.89

Maximum Temperature

Annual 55.33 +2.10 to +4.48 +2.77 to +6.88 +3.31 to +9.53 +3.83 to +11.49

Winter 32.04 +2.06 to +4.98 +2.63 to +7.71 +3.44 to +9.17 +3.87 to +10.36

Spring 53.91 +1.81 to +3.77 +2.55 to +5.77 +3.07 to +8.33 +3.66 to +9.82

Summer 77.3 +2.00 to +4.78 +2.82 to +7.61 +3.41 to +11.02 +3.93 to +13.42

Fall 57.67 +2.37 to +4.98 +3.38 to +7.08 +3.29 to +9.95 +3.89 to +12.31

Minimum Temperature

Annual 33.44 +2.43 to +4.97 +3.53 to +6.86 +4.07 to +9.24 +4.45 to +11.35

Winter 12.4 +2.72 to +6.45 +3.66 to +9.40 +4.88 to +11.44 +5.22 to +12.73

Spring 31.5 +2.13 to +4.12 +2.80 to +6.08 +3.54 to +7.55 +3.91 to +9.27

Summer 53.58 +2.47 to +4.74 +3.25 to +7.31 +3.80 to +9.98 +4.25 to +12.27

Fall 35.92 +1.89 to +5.07 +3.28 to +6.56 +3.60 to +9.26 +3.74 to +11.51

The Deerfield basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the






o Summer mid-century increase of 2.8 °F to 7.6 °F (4-10% increase); end of century

increase of 3.9 °F to 13.4 °F (5-17% increase).




21st century.




11.5 °F (10-32% increase).

DEERFIELD BASIN

Deerfield Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 2.51 +3.80 to +12.93 +6.11 to +24.67 +7.51 to +43.33 +9.15 to +60.11

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.14 +0.09 to +0.56 +0.17 to +1.15 +0.21 to +2.28 +0.16 to +3.66

Summer 2.3 +3.53 to +11.48 +5.47 to +21.74 +6.46 to +36.62 +8.13 to +50.01

Fall 0.07 +0.17 to +1.03 +0.22 to +2.32 +0.25 to +5.36 +0.35 to +7.39

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.13 +0.78 to +4.39 +1.11 to +9.76 +1.52 to +21.21 +2.03 to +35.12

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.09 +0.01 to +0.22 +0.00 to +0.52 +0.00 to +1.14

Summer 0.13 +0.76 to +4.03 +0.99 to +9.10 +1.35 to +19.12 +1.90 to +31.70

Fall 0.00 +0.02 to +0.24 +0.04 to +0.56 +0.03 to +1.31 +0.04 to +2.17

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.03 to +0.65 +0.05 to +2.26 +0.08 to +5.66 +0.08 to +12.54

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.23

Summer 0.00 +0.02 to +0.57 +0.04 to +2.19 +0.07 to +5.37 +0.08 to +11.95

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.29 +0.00 to +0.57


century, the Deerfield basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Deerfield basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Deerfield basin is expected to have 8 to 50 more days.

DEERFIELD BASIN

Deerfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 15.88 -5.74 to -10.42 -7.69 to -12.49 -8.72 to -13.40 -8.95 to -14.22

Winter 15.09 -5.36 to -9.98 -7.35 to -11.93 -8.09 to -12.70 -8.53 to -13.66

Spring 0.83 -0.30 to -0.81 -0.34 to -0.82 -0.39 to -0.91 -0.39 to -0.94

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to - 0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 171.7 -11.04 to -28.51 -19.57 to -37.92 -22.61 to -53.43 -23.58 to -63.13

Winter 87.51 -0.51 to -4.16 -1.29 to -6.72 -2.32 to -12.99 -2.63 to -16.47

Spring 47.46 -5.14 to -10.71 -7.04 to -15.37 -8.36 to -20.21 -10.18 to -22.18

Summer 0.06 -0.01 to -0.25 -0.02 to -0.38 -0.02 to -0.37 -0.02 to -0.39

Fall 36.62 -4.52 to -13.52 -9.15 to -16.45 -9.30 to -22.71 -9.60 to -25.77


century, the Deerfield basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


by end of century.


end of century.

DEERFIELD BASIN

Deerfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7825.96 -665.08 to -1371.17 -906.72 to -1922.07 -1062.81 to -2526.34 -1183.88 to -2909.57

Winter 3870.41 -203.72 to -530.78 -273.96 to -788.27 -370.16 to -937.71 -425.39 to -1075.51

Spring 2062.84 -163.78 to -332.84 -230.93 to -496.42 -279.46 to -661.65 -328.47 to -760.99

Summer 218.11 -70.23 to -128.53 -96.90 to -167.00 -113.42 to -189.87 -124.42 to -201.32

Fall 1676.85 -179.20 to -418.54 -293.82 to -528.86 -286.29 to -744.10 -305.83 to -860.87

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 296.36 +165.12 to +355.20 +222.18 to +622.96 +266.25 to +973.36 +308.02 to +1293.74

Winter nan nan to nan nan to nan nan to nan nan to nan

Spring 13.41 +7.55 to +21.15 +11.41 to +40.32 +13.36 to +67.45 12.97 to +96.06

Summer 258.6 +140.26 to +293.82 +176.17 to +499.63 +207.01 to +769.68 +239.74 to +975.09

Fall 21.96 +14.35 to +52.98 +21.54 to +91.39 +26.85 to +163.51 +34.83 to +223.97

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 1952.32 +362.20 to +747.29 +498.52 to +1196.83 +612.22 to +1779.03 +691.19 to +2248.03

Winter 3.13 -1.79 to +6.01 +0.34 to +7.23 -0.08 to +9.67 +0.93 to +13.69

Spring 210.74 +56.59 to +123.36 +88.03 to +203.32 +103.24 to +299.90 +108.34 to +394.87

Summer 1423.27 +203.37 to +421.16 +281.98 to +664.88 +327.82 to +959.93 +371.90 to +1171.29

Fall 305.14 +85.73 to +234.67 +126.40 to +342.37 +133.01 to +533.64 +176.41 to +670.27


end of the century, the Deerfield basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













DEERFIELD BASIN

Deerfield Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.28 -0.10 to +2.40 +0.92 to +3.53 +1.00 to +3.52 +1.01 to +4.71

Winter 1.18 -0.01 to +0.71 +0.13 to +1.01 +0.19 to +1.32 +0.38 to +1.63

Spring 1.85 -0.11 to +0.73 +0.06 to +0.92 +0.28 to +1.38 +0.36 to +1.69

Summer 2.07 -0.21 to +0.75 -0.10 to +0.84 -0.22 to +0.78 -0.31 to +0.82

Fall 2.15 -0.45 to +0.87 -0.26 to +0.98 -0.42 to +1.02 -0.33 to +1.28

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.78 -0.11 to +0.51 -0.05 to +0.52 +0.05 to +0.66 +0.12 to +0.93

Winter 0.02 -0.05 to +0.05 -0.06 to +0.10 -0.04 to +0.11 -0.04 to +0.14

Spring 0.24 -0.02 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.17 +0.01 to +0.33 +0.05 to +0.47

Summer 0.34 -0.06 to +0.23 -0.08 to +0.23 -0.10 to +0.20 -0.13 to +0.24

Fall 0.18 -0.07 to +0.23 -0.04 to +0.22 -0.03 to +0.20 -0.05 to +0.26

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.00 -0.04 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to +0.01 -0.01 to +0.01 -0.02 to +0.01 -0.02 to +0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03


for the Deerfield basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





DEERFIELD BASIN

Deerfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 50.37 -0.46 to +5.66 +1.19 to +7.30 +2.01 to +7.56 +2.48 to +8.97

Winter 11.3 -0.41 to +2.02 +0.21 to +2.68 +0.46 to +3.26 +1.01 to +4.24

Spring 13.47 +0.03 to +2.24 +0.33 to +2.29 +0.76 to +3.00 +0.81 to +3.33

Summer 12.78 -0.37 to +2.31 -0.27 to +2.42 -0.09 to +1.72 -0.81 to +1.97

Fall 12.84 -1.35 to +1.86 -1.41 to +1.79 -1.84 to +1.75 -1.80 to +1.60


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Deerfield basin.





The summer season projections for the Deerfield or basin could see a decrease

of 0.3 to an increase of 2.4 inches by mid-century (decrease of 2% to increase of

19%), and a decrease of 0.8 to an increase of 2 inches by the end of the century


The fall season projections for the Deerfield basin could see a decrease of 1.4 to

an increase of 1.8 inches by mid-century (decrease of 11% to increase of 14%



Deerfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 14.74 -0.04 to +1.46 -0.37 to +1.71 -0.32 to +2.06 -0.61 to +2.14

Winter 10.68 -0.95 to +1.06 -0.77 to +1.25 -1.16 to +0.99 -1.02 to +1.25

Spring 11.07 -1.29 to +0.70 -1.17 to +1.05 -1.23 to +1.13 -1.29 to +0.90

Summer 10.35 -0.68 to +0.82 -0.46 to +0.75 -0.71 to +1.21 -1.05 to +1.24

Fall 11.03 +0.12 to +1.90 -0.13 to +2.65 -0.04 to +3.09 -0.10 to +3.38




o For all the temporal parameters, the Deerfield basin is expected to see a slight decrease






FARMINGTON BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN FARMINGTON BASIN:

Becket, Blandford, Granville, Monterey, New Marlborough, Otis, Sandisfield, Southwick,

Tolland, and Tyringham



FARMINGTON BASIN

Farmington Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 44.14 +2.25 to +4.48 +3.00 to +6.58 +3.57 to +9.10 +4.10 to +11.11

Winter 22.33 +2.41 to +5.37 +3.04 to +8.11 +3.95 to +9.70 +4.34 to +11.08

Spring 42.32 +1.79 to +3.50 +2.46 to +5.73 +3.04 to +7.67 +3.50 to +9.52

Summer 64.94 +2.32 to +4.37 +2.98 to +6.87 +3.38 to +9.80 +3.96 to +12.08

Fall 46.56 +2.28 to +5.39 +3.90 to +7.16 +3.93 to +10.00 +4.27 to +12.28

Maximum Temperature

Annual 54.96 +2.00 to +4.31 +2.73 to +6.63 +3.24 to +9.23 +3.74 to +11.17

Winter 31.93 +1.94 to +4.74 +2.66 to +7.32 +3.25 to +8.78 +3.65 to +10.10

Spring 53.7 +1.65 to +3.42 +2.35 to +5.49 +2.94 to +7.95 +3.54 to +9.73

Summer 76.53 +2.12 to +4.49 +2.72 to +7.11 +3.32 to +10.23 +3.80 to +12.51

Fall 57.26 +2.46 to +5.33 +3.70 to +7.39 +3.75 to +10.33 +4.29 to +12.56

Minimum Temperature

Annual 33.31 +2.33 to +4.73 +3.33 to +6.74 +3.97 to +8.99 +4.48 to +11.09

Winter 12.74 +2.68 to +5.99 +3.52 to +8.72 +4.70 to +10.58 +5.14 to +12.08

Spring 30.93 +1.88 to +3.72 +2.58 to +6.12 +3.11 to +7.73 +3.60 to +9.27

Summer 53.35 +2.38 to +4.55 +3.16 to +6.97 +3.51 to +9.48 +4.07 to +11.66

Fall 35.87 +2.11 to +5.36 +3.86 to +6.97 +4.02 to +9.67 +4.25 to +11.93

The Farmington basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.8 °F to 12.5 °F (5-16% increase).




21st century.



o Fall mid-century of 3.9 °F to 7 °F (11-19% increase); end of century increase of 4.3°F to

11.9 °F (12-33% increase).

FARMINGTON BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 0.96 +2.94 to +9.23 +3.79 to +18.54 +4.48 to +35.85 +6.01 to +53.11

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.02 to +0.32 +0.04 to +0.67 +0.09 to +1.45 +0.05 to +2.74

Summer 0.94 +2.79 to +8.50 +3.38 to +16.84 +3.96 to +31.03 +5.70 to +45.05

Fall 0.02 +0.05 to +0.76 +0.13 to +1.45 +0.17 to +3.93 +0.26 to +5.94

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.03 +0.26 to +1.98 +0.36 to +5.15 +0.65 to +12.52 +0.55 to +23.97

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.29 +0.00 to +0.72

Summer 0.03 +0.22 to +1.79 +0.37 to +4.92 +0.56 to +11.43 +0.51 to +22.01

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.18 +0.01 to +0.39 +0.01 to +0.84 +0.00 to +1.31

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.01 to +0.20 +0.01 to +0.63 +0.01 to +2.26 +0.00 to +5.63

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.07

Summer 0.00 +0.01 to +0.19 +0.01 to +0.62 +0.01 to +2.12 +0.00 to +5.49

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.16 +0.00 to +0.27


century, the Farmington basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Farmington basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Farmington basin is expected to have 6 to 45 more days.

FARMINGTON BASIN

Farmington Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 15.16 -5.33 to -9.59 -6.96 to -11.44 -7.71 to -12.07 -8.39 to -12.95

Winter 14.29 -5.03 to -9.16 -6.60 to -10.94 -7.26 to -11.44 -7.83 to -12.41

Spring 0.9 -0.18 to -0.66 -0.27 to -0.72 -0.32 to -0.81 -0.33 to -0.80

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 173.41 -10.83 to -27.15 -19.16 to -37.99 -21.75 to -52.54 -23.99 to -61.33

Winter 87.36 -0.59 to -4.82 -1.28 to -6.68 -2.52 to -12.56 -2.98 to -15.64

Spring 49.39 -4.50 to -9.73 -5.77 to -15.21 -7.48 to -20.11 -9.32 to -21.79

Summer 0.1 -0.01 to -0.25 -0.01 to -0.35 -0.00 to -0.34 -0.01 to -0.34

Fall 36.51 -4.70 to -13.92 -9.53 to -16.69 -9.68 to -21.68 -9.91 to -25.23


century, the Farmington basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

FARMINGTON BASIN

Farmington Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7887.66 -656.54 to -1340.63 -890.89 to -1886.87 -1029.23 to -2475.80 -1200.59 to -2867.44

Winter 3862.53 -202.94 to -500.38 -268.26 to -745.47 -348.98 to -880.78 -402.15 to -1018.65

Spring 2095.4 -152.93 to -309.32 -214.92 to -498.91 -263.98 to -645.35 -314.47 to -778.60

Summer 228.58 -75.51 to -127.82 -103.68 to -165.52 -119.16 to -193.39 -131.44 to -203.77

Fall 1695.77 -188.73 to -446.02 -324.55 to -559.59 -322.38 to -768.47 -342.83 to -885.16

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 251.41 +157.93 to +334.54 +210.96 to +592.46 +247.43 to +908.69 +286.01 to +1234.68


Spring 10.24 +5.82 to +15.86 +8.70 to +31.69 +12.65 to +56.78 10.67 to +89.54

Summer 223.19 +126.26 to +283.24 +164.17 to +464.16 +190.75 to +710.43 +229.15 to +912.98

Fall 17.7 +15.85 to +53.50 +24.58 to +93.03 +30.27 to +173.90 +40.55 to +235.10

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 1866.79 +385.41 to +742.93 +505.33 to +1179.23 +605.15 to +1759.28 +684.88 to +2227.58

Winter 2.77 -1.01 to +7.34 +0.55 to +7.77 -0.34 to +12.72 +0.80 to +15.55

Spring 194.59 +55.01 to +114.43 +77.84 to +195.85 +94.77 to +302.80 +95.48 to +400.03

Summer 1376.94 +211.81 to +400.12 +271.10 to +629.85 +307.69 to +900.48 +359.43 to +1109.37

Fall 287.09 +104.15 to +260.68 +155.44 to +374.43 +162.91 to +565.53 +211.49 to +708.46


end of the century, the Farmington basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.





century.



century.













FARMINGTON BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.1 +0.06 to +2.49 +0.83 to +3.65 +0.78 to +3.72 +0.64 to +5.09

Winter 1.48 -0.02 to +0.70 +0.12 to +1.23 +0.13 to +1.43 +0.30 to +1.71

Spring 2.02 -0.12 to +0.59 +0.02 to +0.77 +0.11 to +1.25 +0.14 to +1.64

Summer 2.16 -0.29 to +0.61 -0.16 to +1.02 -0.30 to +0.88 -0.28 to +0.82

Fall 2.43 -0.37 to +0.84 -0.23 to +1.13 -0.19 to +1.14 -0.35 to +1.50

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.98 -0.11 to +0.43 -0.03 to +0.63 +0.04 to +0.82 +0.04 to +0.95

Winter 0.06 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.12

Spring 0.26 -0.03 to +0.16 -0.01 to +0.27 +0.01 to +0.35 +0.04 to +0.45

Summer 0.38 -0.14 to +0.16 -0.05 to +0.20 -0.08 to +0.21 -0.07 to +0.22

Fall 0.28 -0.09 to +0.22 -0.11 to +0.35 -0.12 to +0.34 -0.13 to +0.35

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.02 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.12 -0.03 to +0.16

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to +0.01 -0.01 to +0.01 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.01 to +0.05

Summer 0.01 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.02 to 0.05 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.08

Fall 0.01 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.07


for the Farmington basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





FARMINGTON BASIN

Farmington Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 51.4 +0.11 to +5.05 +1.21 to +6.43 +1.79 to +7.89 +1.72 to +8.97

Winter 11.57 -0.55 to +2.36 +0.01 to +2.85 +0.25 to +3.16 +0.71 to +3.93

Spring 13.64 -0.14 to +2.01 +0.31 to +1.98 +0.50 to +2.92 +0.59 to +3.05

Summer 13.15 -0.23 to +1.75 -0.14 to +2.21 -0.19 to +2.05 -1.05 to +1.98

Fall 13.02 -1.41 to +1.57 -1.43 to +2.17 -1.66 to +2.21 -2.13 to +1.87


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Farmington basin.





The summer season projections for the Farmington or basin could see a


increase of 17%), and a decrease of 1.1 to an increase of 2 inches by the end of

the century (decrease of 8% to increase of 15%).

The fall season projections for the Farmington basin could see a decrease of 1.4




Farmington Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.22 -0.34 to +1.41 -0.24 to +2.30 -0.53 to +1.84 -0.50 to +2.13

Winter 11.3 -1.00 to +1.03 -0.49 to +1.08 -0.68 to +1.11 -1.05 to +1.38

Spring 10.74 -1.15 to +0.57 -1.01 to +1.12 -1.20 to +0.71 -1.45 to +0.79

Summer 10.86 -0.97 to +1.76 -0.77 to +1.31 -0.94 to +2.09 -1.09 to +2.69

Fall 11.71 -0.04 to +1.66 +0.03 to +2.64 -0.16 to +2.51 +0.19 to +2.90




o For all the temporal parameters, the Farmington basin is expected to see a slight






FRENCH BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN FRENCH BASIN:

Auburn, Charlton, Douglas, Dudley, Leicester, Millbury, Oxford, Spencer, and Webster



FRENCH BASIN

French Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 47.07 +2.16 to +4.35 +2.99 to +6.40 +3.59 to +9.16 +3.92 to +11.17

Winter 25.77 +2.26 to +5.12 +2.94 to +7.69 +3.74 to +9.41 +4.17 to +10.82

Spring 45.15 +1.47 to +3.44 +2.40 to +5.73 +2.62 to +8.10 +3.12 to +9.86

Summer 67.57 +2.26 to +4.32 +2.96 to +6.86 +3.41 to +10.12 +3.96 to +12.40

Fall 49.4 +2.32 to +5.41 +4.06 to +6.96 +3.85 to +9.78 +4.35 to +12.04

Maximum Temperature

Annual 57.65 +2.06 to +4.15 +2.75 to +6.43 +3.28 to +9.21 +3.60 to +11.05

Winter 35.53 +1.84 to +4.62 +2.57 to +7.10 +3.14 to +8.64 +3.61 to +10.02

Spring 56.04 +1.32 to +3.42 +2.15 to +5.71 +2.52 to +8.20 +3.06 to +9.90

Summer 78.49 +2.05 to +4.40 +2.81 to +6.85 +3.31 to +10.36 +3.77 to +12.68

Fall 60.12 +2.41 to +5.14 +3.79 to +7.21 +3.67 to +9.99 +4.25 to +12.37

Minimum Temperature

Annual 36.49 +2.27 to +4.60 +3.27 to +6.62 +3.91 to +9.11 +4.24 to +11.21

Winter 16.01 +2.66 to +5.55 +3.36 to +8.22 +4.44 to +10.17 +4.64 to +11.74

Spring 34.26 +1.58 to +3.69 +2.60 to +6.09 +2.75 to +7.94 +3.18 to +9.74

Summer 56.64 +2.34 to +4.37 +3.11 to +6.93 +3.51 to +9.88 +4.15 to +12.20

Fall 38.68 +2.21 to +5.49 +4.00 to +6.89 +4.03 to +9.56 +4.45 to +11.97

The French basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the 21st



projections.




of 3.8 °F to 127 °F (5-16% increase).




21st century.




12 °F (12-31% increase).

FRENCH BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 3.05 +4.10 to +13.36 +6.51 to +24.86 +8.36 to +45.40 +10.33 to +64.16

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.13 +0.02 to +0.61 +0.06 to +0.98 +0.19 to +2.00 +0.15 to +3.23

Summer 2.77 +3.77 to +11.70 +5.59 to +21.45 +7.14 to +38.49 +9.31 to +52.30

Fall 0.15 +0.29 to +1.35 +0.47 to +3.23 +0.49 to +6.53 +0.77 to +8.88

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.12 +0.86 to +3.66 +1.29 to +8.83 +1.69 to +19.54 +2.38 to +33.25

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.02 to +0.12 +0.01 to +0.23 +0.01 to +0.57 +0.02 to +1.01

Summer 0.12 +0.86 to +3.31 +1.08 to +8.05 +1.65 to +17.80 +2.18 to +29.47

Fall 0.00 +0.01 to +0.33 +0.02 to +0.60 +0.05 to +1.70 +0.07 to +2.73

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.02 to +0.52 +0.06 to +1.87 +0.08 to +4.62 +0.05 to +10.40

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.23

Summer 0.00 +0.01 to +0.39 +0.03 to +1.81 +0.07 to +4.32 +0.05 to +9.73

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.30 +0.00 to +0.51


century, the French basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily maximum

temperatures over 90 °F, 95 °F, and 100 °F.

o Annually, the French basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the French basin is expected to have 9 to 52 more days.

FRENCH BASIN

French Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 8.7 -2.54 to -5.13 -3.31 to -5.78 -3.87 to -6.64 -3.69 to -6.77

Winter 8.48 -2.57 to -5.05 -3.20 to -5.65 -3.71 to -6.24 -3.67 to -6.63

Spring 0.23 -0.33 to +0.02 -0.02 to -0.30 -0.06 to -0.39 -0.06 to -0.39

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.03 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 150.63 -9.48 to -27.1 -18.51 to -39.60 -21.45 to -55.40 -23.87 to -67.14

Winter 84.43 -1.49 to -6.58 -2.62 to -10.14 -3.84 to -18.31 -4.74 to -23.52

Spring 38.61 -2.96 to -10.71 -6.12 to -16.21 -7.25 to -20.55 -8.31 to -22.20

Summer 0.00 -0.06 to -0.00 -0.07 to -0.00 -0.09 to -0.00 -0.09 to -0.00

Fall 27.55 -5.01 to -11.86 -9.09 to -14.79 -8.86 to -18.86 -9.00 to -21.37


century, the French basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


of century.


end of century.

FRENCH BASIN

French Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6982.91 -562.17 to -1206.44 -795.58 to -1713.57 -936.48 to -2266.86 -1069.07 to -2658.30

Winter 3554.28 -193.07 to -475.92 -261.20 to -703.28 -331.21 to -853.35 -387.40 to -992.10

Spring 1840.31 -121.61 to -296.96 -202.95 to -488.03 -222.03 to -659.00 -278.25 to -777.07

Summer 131.37 -45.84 to -78.47 -64.96 to -100.53 -68.95 to -114.05 -75.47 to -120.14

Fall 1452.79 -174.71 to -411.93 -309.43 to -498.21 -288.15 to -687.37 -312.97 to -786.97

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 418.89 +212.48 to +414.84 +282.63 to +707.49 +328.97 to +1109.99 +373.11 to +1457.89


Spring 15.79 +6.85 to +23.94 +13.67 to +50.05 +18.82 to +84.61 +17.7 to +117.43

Summer 367.5 +157.57 to +322.57 +198.22 to +531.64 +236.61 to +818.68 +278.05 to +1023.75

Fall 31.67 +30.82 to +85.60 +46.16 to +139.82 +53.14 to +229.01 +75.91 to +311.88

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2277.07 +411.77 to +796.19 +573.96 to +1265.43 +662.44 to +1935.21 +740.00 to +2424.17

Winter 4.96 -1.80 to +8.93 +0.08 to +11.81 +2.50 to +17.52 +2.09 to +23.26

Spring 254.47 +57.22 to +131.33 +81.08 to +235.19 +100.46 to +368.41 +104.17 to +470.04

Summer 1616.61 +207.41 to +396.62 +270.92 to +630.30 +311.89 to +930.43 +362.45 to +1139.62

Fall 393.29 +122.64 to +304.48 +193.41 to +419.43 +187.56 to +617.72 +238.60 to +779.47


end of the century, the French basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.


expected to increase by 54-145% (198 -532 degree-days) by mid-century, and by 76-279% (278-





o The summer season is projected to increase by 17-39% (271 -630 degree-days) by mid-

century, and by 22-70% (362 -1140 degree-days) by end of century.

o Spring is expected to see an increase by 32-92% (81 -235 degree-days) by mid-century

and 41-185% (104 -470 degree-days) by end of century.

o Fall is expected to see an increase by 49-107% (193 -419 degree-days) by mid-century


FRENCH BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.99 +0.13 to +2.39 +0.82 to +3.60 +0.88 to +3.34 +1.30 to +4.50

Winter 1.66 -0.02 to +0.98 +0.06 to +1.39 +0.14 to +1.67 +0.41 to +2.14

Spring 1.7 -0.21 to +0.71 +0.02 to +0.82 +0.11 to +1.20 +0.18 to +1.59

Summer 1.89 -0.25 to +0.84 -0.06 to +1.19 -0.15 to +1.19 -0.34 to +0.92

Fall 2.7 -0.45 to +0.89 -0.28 to +0.97 -0.41 to +1.04 -0.57 to +1.06

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.89 +0.06 to +0.48 +0.06 to +0.65 +0.19 to +0.70 +0.13 to +0.89

Winter 0.09 -0.06 to +0.08 -0.04 to +0.12 -0.06 to +0.19 -0.05 to +0.21

Spring 0.17 -0.05 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.19 +0.02 to +0.23 +0.03 to +0.37

Summer 0.31 -0.05 to +0.21 -0.01 to +0.24 -0.04 to +0.29 -0.05 to +0.22

Fall 0.32 -0.07 to +0.33 -0.09 to +0.34 -0.05 to +0.26 -0.08 to +0.31

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.01 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.03 to +0.09 -0.04 to +0.14

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.03

Summer 0.01 -0.04 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.04 to +0.05

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.07


for the French basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





FRENCH BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.44 +0.33 to +5.45 +1.31 to +6.89 +2.68 to +8.56 +1.98 to +9.27

Winter 11.24 -0.43 to +2.17 +0.25 to +2.96 +0.15 to +3.70 +0.57 to +4.61

Spring 11.9 -0.23 to +2.06 +0.06 to +2.07 +0.35 to +2.79 +0.37 to +2.84

Summer 11.61 -0.15 to +1.77 -0.34 to +2.35 -0.58 to +2.69 -1.49 to +2.44

Fall 12.68 -1.26 to +1.49 -1.43 to +2.14 -1.67 to +2.07 -1.88 to +1.92


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the French basin.





The summer season projections for the French or basin could see a decrease of




The fall season projections for the French basin could see a decrease of 1.4 to an

increase of 2.1 inches by mid-century (decrease of 11% to increase of 17% and a

decrease of 1.9 to an increase of 1.9 inches by the end of the century (decrease

of 15% to increase of 15%).

French Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.82 -0.99 to +1.54 -0.80 to +1.94 -1.20 to +2.38 -0.77 to +2.76

Winter 11.36 -0.72 to +1.26 -0.65 to +1.44 -0.80 to +1.29 -0.99 to +1.39

Spring 10.9 -1.15 to +0.50 -1.00 to +0.96 -1.41 to +0.80 -1.16 to +0.87

Summer 12.09 -1.03 to +1.59 -0.92 to +1.79 -1.47 to +2.32 -1.46 to +2.79

Fall 11.92 -0.34 to +2.19 -0.57 to +2.53 -1.05 to +2.78 -0.39 to +2.97




o For all the temporal parameters, the French basin is expected to see a slight decrease to

an increase in consecutive dry days throughout this century.





HOUSATONIC BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN HOUSATONIC BASIN:

Alford, Becket, Cheshire, Dalton, Egremont, Great Barrington, Hancock, Hinsdale,

Lanesborough, Lee, Lenox, Monterey, Mount Washington, New Ashford, New Marlborough,

Otis, Peru, Pittsfield, Richmond, Sandisfield, Sheffield, Stockbridge, Tyringham, Washington,

West Stockbridge, and Windsor



HOUSATONIC BASIN

Housatonic Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 44.32 +2.24 to +4.61 +3.09 to +6.72 +3.69 to +9.29 +4.28 to +11.30

Winter 22.46 +2.56 to +5.86 +3.29 to +8.82 +4.39 to +10.49 +4.74 to +11.97

Spring 42.73 +1.77 to +3.42 +2.43 to +5.55 +2.98 to +7.69 +3.54 to +9.50

Summer 65.08 +2.33 to +4.44 +3.03 to +6.93 +3.53 to +10.02 +4.14 to +12.27

Fall 46.64 +2.35 to +5.29 +3.81 to +6.94 +3.84 to +9.75 +4.12 to +12.02

Maximum Temperature

Annual 55.41 +2.01 to +4.42 +2.74 to +6.89 +3.27 to +9.52 +3.87 to +11.42

Winter 32.29 +2.08 to +5.13 +2.82 to +7.86 +3.61 to +9.41 +3.94 to +10.88

Spring 54.24 +1.53 to +3.43 +2.27 to +5.56 +2.82 to +7.98 +3.47 to +9.59

Summer 77.04 +2.13 to +4.58 +2.67 to +7.27 +3.37 to +10.49 +3.95 to +12.78

Fall 57.67 +2.53 to +5.19 +3.51 to +7.38 +3.64 to +10.13 +4.20 to +12.39

Minimum Temperature

Annual 33.23 +2.41 to +4.91 +3.50 to +6.93 +4.15 to +9.13 +4.53 to +11.28

Winter 12.62 +2.82 to +6.62 +3.87 to +9.59 +5.22 to +11.53 +5.47 to +13.11

Spring 31.21 +1.91 to +3.71 +2.54 to +6.00 +3.25 to +7.54 +3.70 to +9.22

Summer 53.11 +2.45 to +4.64 +3.30 to +7.08 +3.75 to +9.69 +4.15 to +11.83

Fall 35.62 +2.10 to +5.28 +3.58 to +6.77 +3.87 to +9.38 +4.04 to +11.59

The Housatonic basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 4 °F to 12.8 °F (5-17% increase).




21st century.




11.6 °F (11-33% increase).

HOUSATONIC BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 1.33 +2.89 to +10.27 +4.43 to +20.21 +5.59 to +38.75 +7.19 to +56.83

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.04 +0.07 to +0.42 +0.11 to +0.83 +0.19 to +1.82 +0.14 to +3.21

Summer 1.27 +2.74 to +9.06 +3.83 to +18.05 +4.81 to +32.71 +6.55 to +46.77

Fall 0.02 +0.16 to +0.91 +0.21 to +1.86 +0.22 to +4.73 +0.24 to +6.84

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.07 +0.29 to +2.77 +0.49 to +6.45 +0.74 to +14.71 +1.06 to +27.38

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.34 +0.00 to +0.94

Summer 0.07 +0.26 to +2.60 +0.45 to +6.16 +0.71 to +13.51 +0.96 to +24.96

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.23 +0.02 to +0.48 +0.03 to +0.95 +0.00 to +1.62

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.00 to +0.26 +0.01 to +1.03 +0.03 to +3.11 +0.02 to +7.35

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.08

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.23 +0.01 to +1.01 +0.03 to +2.92 +0.02 to +7.10

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.19 +0.00 to +0.36


century, the Housatonic basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Housatonic basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Housatonic basin is expected to have 7 to 47 more days.

HOUSATONIC BASIN

Housatonic Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 15.92 -5.49 to -10.12 -7.21 to -11.96 -8.19 to -12.68 -8.52 to -13.56

Winter 15.01 -5.17 to -9.62 -6.83 to -11.36 -7.67 to -11.98 -7.91 to -12.71

Spring 0.93 -0.23 to -0.79 -0.27 to -0.78 -0.35 to -0.87 -0.38 to -0.90

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 172.97 -10.88 to -28.16 -19.40 to -38.83 -22.42 to -53.75 -23.77 to -63.13

Winter 86.9 -0.80 to -6.06 -1.84 to -8.83 -2.92 to -16.06 -3.53 to -19.72

Spring 48.58 -4.49 to -9.51 -6.03 to -14.89 -7.46 to -19.46 -9.46 to -21.18

Summer 0.13 -0.02 to -0.21 -0.02 to -0.35 -0.02 to -0.31 -0.02 to -0.31

Fall 37.34 -4.68 to -13.01 -9.26 to -16.13 -9.18 to -21.42 -9.42 to -24.72


century, the Housatonic basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

HOUSATONIC BASIN

Housatonic Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7822.03 -670.10 to -1372.30 -900.56 to -1924.44 -1057.85 to -2516.06 -1213.52 to -2905.02

Winter 3849.68 -214.60 to -542.71 -290.64 to -807.49 -388.93 to -951.53 -436.61 to -1099.08

Spring 2059.3 -149.28 to -297.95 -209.42 to -480.77 -257.38 to -639.14 -309.62 to -765.07

Summer 223.89 -75.13 to -127.09 -99.65 to -163.79 -120.06 to -192.72 -129.86 to -202.21

Fall 1689.59 -193.19 to -432.12 -311.38 to -537.87 -309.15 to -743.70 -325.05 to -863.11

Cooling

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 261.29 +160.30 to +347.99 +222.51 to +603.30 +263.27 to +940.20 +310.17 to +1262.07

Winter nan nan to nan +0.86 to +4.31 +1.57 to +1.57 +2.35 to +10.65

Spring 12.03 +6.43 to +18.90 +11.04 to +36.74 +13.95 to +62.62 +12.37 to +97.39

Summer 231.11 +126.85 to +280.97 +169.14 to +472.65 +199.51 to +730.12 +239.39 to +931.12

Fall 18.38 +18.32 to +60.49 +28.08 to +98.50 +35.42 to +176.56 +41.87 to +235.21

Growing

Degree-

Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 1899.77 +386.61 to +743.64 +528.03 to +1186.76 +626.85 to +1776.20 +713.76 to +2238.16

Winter 3.09 +0.02 to +7.78 +0.88 to +8.08 +0.19 to +14.19 +2.04 to +19.93

Spring 207.26 +51.95 to +117.64 +83.17 to +202.54 +103.91 to +307.63 +109.22 to +407.29

Summer 1389.48 +212.76 to +406.04 +276.17 to +635.70 +321.76 to +919.82 +376.08 to +1126.63

Fall 293.17 +100.86 to +258.98 +154.03 to +362.52 +158.26 to +550.34 +201.11 to +688.38


end of the century, the Housatonic basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.


mid-century, and a decrease of 11-29% (437 -1099 degree-days) by the end of century.


degree-days) by mid-century, and by 15-37% (310 -765 degree-days) by the end of

century.

o The fall season is expected to decreases in heating degree-days by 18-32% (311 -538


century.


expected to increase by 73-205% (169 -473 degree-days) by mid-century, and by 104-403%











HOUSATONIC BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 6.02 -0.24 to +2.10 +0.37 to +2.84 +0.58 to +2.84 +0.35 to +3.97

Winter 0.92 -0.04 to +0.53 +0.01 to +0.87 +0.02 to +1.05 +0.11 to +1.19

Spring 1.35 -0.08 to +0.45 -0.05 to +0.57 -0.02 to +0.93 +0.06 to +1.38

Summer 2.1 -0.19 to +0.68 -0.20 to +0.93 -0.33 to +0.85 -0.24 to +0.76

Fall 1.62 -0.36 to +0.78 -0.34 to +0.85 -0.25 to +1.07 -0.26 to +1.22

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.57 -0.16 to +0.37 -0.12 to +0.42 +0.01 to +0.57 +0.04 to +0.73

Winter 0.02 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.09

Spring 0.1 +0.00 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.26

Summer 0.35 -0.10 to +0.19 -0.06 to +0.19 -0.10 to +0.19 -0.11 to +0.23

Fall 0.1 -0.11 to +0.17 -0.04 to +0.19 -0.03 to +0.20 -0.05 to +0.19

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.01 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.12

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.05

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.05


for the Housatonic basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.




of 0-1 days by mid-century, and an increase of 0-1 days by the end of century.

HOUSATONIC BASIN

Housatonic Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.43 +0.21 to +4.41 +1.09 to +6.42 +1.57 to +6.85 +1.56 to +7.66

Winter 10.22 -0.50 to +1.81 +0.09 to +2.35 +0.21 to +2.77 +0.81 to +3.51

Spring 12.07 -0.05 to +1.74 +0.20 to +1.78 +0.38 to +2.41 +0.48 to +2.77

Summer 13.23 -0.15 to +2.20 -0.13 to +2.15 -0.35 to +1.85 -0.79 to +1.91

Fall 11.86 -1.35 to +1.40 -1.32 to +1.83 -1.41 to +1.84 -1.69 to +1.67


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Housatonic basin.





The summer season projections for the Housatonic or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Housatonic basin could see a decrease of 1.3




Housatonic Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 15.98 -0.07 to +1.00 -0.06 to +1.94 -0.19 to +1.89 -0.08 to +2.26

Winter 11.32 -1.03 to +0.67 -0.53 to +0.83 -0.95 to +0.95 -1.23 to +1.25

Spring 10.84 -1.18 to +0.92 -1.13 to +1.31 -1.42 to +0.94 -1.49 to +0.95

Summer 10.64 -0.83 to +1.19 -0.46 to +1.04 -0.73 to +1.51 -0.86 to +2.42

Fall 11.27 -0.07 to +1.78 +0.14 to +2.80 +0.06 to +3.04 +0.19 to +2.79




o For all the temporal parameters, the Housatonic basin is expected to see a slight






HUDSON BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN HUDSON BASIN:

Adams, Cheshire, Clarksburg, Dalton, Florida, Hancock, Lanesborough, Mount Washington, New

Ashford, North Adams, Pittsfield, Savoy, Williamstown, and Windsor



HUDSON BASIN

Hudson Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 43.34 +2.35 to +4.80 +3.27 to +6.96 +3.84 to +9.61 +4.41 to +11.68

Winter 21.32 +2.60 to +6.11 +3.31 to +9.21 +4.52 to +11.05 +4.87 to +12.63

Spring 41.65 +2.06 to +4.00 +2.87 to +6.08 +3.42 to +8.32 +4.12 to +10.16

Summer 64.13 +2.49 to +4.54 +3.27 to +6.95 +3.76 to +9.94 +4.33 to +12.14

Fall 45.87 +2.23 to +5.18 +3.63 to +6.80 +3.63 to +9.84 +3.90 to +12.23

Maximum Temperature

Annual 53.93 +2.18 to +4.66 +2.94 to +7.08 +3.46 to +9.81 +4.08 to +11.79

Winter 30.77 +2.21 to +5.44 +2.86 to +8.37 +3.79 to +9.90 +4.30 to +11.36

Spring 52.54 +1.91 to +3.99 +2.77 to +6.08 +3.29 to +8.72 +4.02 to +10.41

Summer 75.68 +2.28 to +4.71 +2.98 to +7.31 +3.67 to +10.48 +4.15 to +12.74

Fall 56.33 +2.41 to +5.13 +3.43 to +7.31 +3.43 to +10.28 +4.01 to +12.56

Minimum Temperature

Annual 32.74 +2.55 to +5.09 +3.65 to +7.13 +4.27 to +9.50 +4.65 to +11.70

Winter 11.87 +2.88 to +6.74 +3.88 to +9.95 +5.33 to +12.19 +5.52 to +13.73

Spring 30.76 +2.31 to +4.25 +2.96 to +6.43 +3.73 to +8.00 +4.32 to +9.90

Summer 52.57 +2.62 to +4.72 +3.48 to +7.09 +3.98 to +9.59 +4.31 to +11.71

Fall 35.41 +1.92 to +5.14 +3.39 to +6.74 +3.66 to +9.52 +3.77 to +11.79

The Hudson basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 4.2 °F to 12.7 °F (5-17% increase).




21st century.

o Winter mid-century increase of 3.9 °F to 10 °F (33-84% increase); end of century



11.8 °F (11-33% increase).

HUDSON BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 0.48 +2.53 to +8.33 +3.87 to +16.78 +4.55 to +33.70 +5.92 to +50.31

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.02 to +0.25 +0.05 to +0.52 +0.08 to +1.49 +0.06 to +2.78

Summer 0.48 +2.37 to +7.62 +3.59 to +15.28 +4.13 to +28.46 +5.65 to +42.38

Fall 0.00 +0.08 to +0.66 +0.11 to +1.31 +0.08 to +3.77 +0.08 to +5.34

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.00 +0.18 to +1.86 +0.30 to +4.90 +0.59 to +10.82 +0.59 to +21.47

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.23 +0.00 to +0.74

Summer 0.00 +0.16 to +1.80 +0.28 to +4.71 +0.52 to +10.04 +0.54 to +19.71

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.31 +0.01 to +0.73 +0.00 to +1.21

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.00 to +0.18 +0.00 to +0.64 +0.00 to +2.32 +0.00 to +4.61

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.07

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.17 +0.00 to +0.62 +0.00 to +2.24 +0.00 to +4.53

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.26


century, the Hudson basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Hudson basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Hudson basin is expected to have 6 to 42 more days.

HUDSON BASIN

Hudson Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 17.72 -6.34 to -11.22 -8.26 to -13.52 -9.70 to -14.48 -9.72 to -15.35

Winter 16.61 -5.92 to -10.73 -7.84 to -12.87 -8.99 to -13.84 -8.94 to -14.62

Spring 1.15 -0.27 to -0.88 -0.39 to -0.94 -0.46 to -1.06 -0.48 to -1.11

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.01 -0.04 to +0.01 -0.04 to +0.01 -0.04 to +0.01 -0.04 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 173.9 -11.25 to -29.51 -20.25 to -40.65 -23.11 to -56.81 -24.64 to -67.41

Winter 87.36 -0.55 to -5.29 -1.28 to -8.42 -2.73 to -15.73 -3.13 to -19.67

Spring 49.1 -5.84 to -11.37 -7.57 to -16.15 -9.07 to -21.05 -10.39 to -23.33

Summer 0.16 -0.03 to -0.25 -0.03 to -0.41 -0.03 to -0.39 -0.03 to -0.42

Fall 37.27 -4.02 to -13.04 -8.66 to -16.25 -8.81 to -22.62 -9.42 to -26.20


century, the Hudson basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


by end of century.


end of century.

HUDSON BASIN

Hudson Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 8133.98 -716.28 to -1461.82 -976.05 to -2053.30 -1128.99 to -2695.85 -1285.22 to -3112.11

Winter 3952.77 -220.57 to -568.88 -292.92 to -843.17 -400.53 to -1002.61 -450.07 to -1158.99

Spring 2155.83 -179.00 to -351.30 -250.97 to -532.38 -299.91 to -701.82 -362.82 to -828.39

Summer 268.96 -89.21 to -144.60 -115.61 to -191.27 -140.01 to -220.13 -150.69 to -233.32

Fall 1755.43 -185.09 to -435.38 -301.19 to -552.62 -299.13 to -775.66 -318.18 to -904.00

Cooling

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 213.75 +160.61 to +330.23 +223.03 to +567.86 +254.23 to +880.36 +290.88 to +1193.65


Spring 9.62 +6.21 to +18.54 +10.80 to +36.87 +14.43 to +60.66 +12.35 to +94.22

Summer 188.84 +132.58 to +272.86 +176.96 to +448.11 +199.24 to +695.07 +238.32 to +885.85

Fall 15.38 +12.91 to +48.47 +19.63 to +83.95 +25.00 to +156.03 +31.03 to +214.29

Growing

Degree-

Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 1760.9 +388.89 to +740.80 +537.63 to +1176.53 +631.54 to +1750.92 +707.29 to +2212.93

Winter 2.92 -1.13 to +6.77 +0.66 to +7.13 +0.19 to +11.60 +1.67 to +16.15

Spring 182.33 +58.77 to +126.20 +87.96 to +210.42 +106.70 to +310.14 +114.55 to +411.49

Summer 1303.62 +227.30 to +414.62 +297.47 to +636.60 +341.51 to +912.79 +392.40 to +1113.58

Fall 264.85 +89.44 to +232.38 +133.31 to +345.18 +143.54 to +535.40 +181.28 to +673.69


end of the century, the Hudson basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.



o The spring season is expected to decrease in heating degree-days by 12-25% (251 -532


century.



century.













HUDSON BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 5.88 -0.12 to +1.70 +0.54 to +2.45 +0.58 to +2.65 +0.63 to +3.55

Winter 0.74 -0.03 to +0.42 +0.03 to +0.79 +0.02 to +0.99 +0.24 to +1.20

Spring 1.32 -0.09 to +0.40 +0.02 to +0.58 +0.02 to +0.86 +0.10 to +1.07

Summer 2.26 -0.24 to +0.73 -0.14 to +1.05 -0.24 to +0.78 -0.21 to +0.78

Fall 1.54 -0.30 to +0.70 -0.22 to +0.74 -0.29 to +0.95 -0.27 to +1.18

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.57 -0.15 to +0.33 -0.09 to +0.46 -0.04 to +0.51 -0.03 to +0.62

Winter 0.01 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.07

Spring 0.12 -0.04 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.17 +0.00 to +0.22

Summer 0.35 -0.09 to +0.28 -0.10 to +0.31 -0.08 to +0.22 -0.10 to +0.28

Fall 0.09 -0.07 to +0.11 -0.08 to +0.14 -0.03 to +0.14 -0.05 to +0.18

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.02 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.07

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.02 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.04

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.02


for the Hudson basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.



o The spring season is expected to see increase in days with precipitation over one inch of

0-1 days by mid-century, and of 0-1 days by the end of century.

HUDSON BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 48.2 -0.08 to +4.56 +0.83 to +6.54 +1.45 to +6.62 +1.78 to +7.78

Winter 9.67 -0.33 to +1.64 +0.20 to +2.25 +0.29 to +2.69 +0.86 to +3.51

Spring 12.22 +0.03 to +1.74 +0.22 to +1.80 +0.41 to +2.24 +0.50 to +2.87

Summer 14.19 -0.48 to +2.34 -0.31 to +2.64 -0.22 to +1.73 -0.51 to +1.93

Fall 12.12 -1.29 to +1.44 -1.41 to +1.57 -1.65 to +1.53 -1.70 to +1.40


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Hudson basin.





The summer season projections for the Hudson or basin could see a decrease of


19%) and a decrease of 0.5 to an increase of 1.9 inches by the end of the


The fall season projections for the Hudson basin could see a decrease of 1.4 to




Hudson Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 14.63 -0.42 to +1.56 -0.40 to +1.71 -0.48 to +1.76 -0.31 to +2.30

Winter 10.61 -0.89 to +0.90 -0.76 to +0.79 -1.15 to +0.83 -1.06 to +0.68

Spring 10.8 -1.30 to +0.86 -1.48 to +1.09 -1.23 to +1.14 -1.32 to +0.93

Summer 9.63 -0.41 to +1.53 -0.35 to +1.00 -0.57 to +1.42 -0.64 to +1.71

Fall 10.56 -0.34 to +2.05 -0.04 to +2.81 -0.21 to +2.89 -0.07 to +3.51




o For all the temporal parameters, the Hudson basin is expected to see a slight decrease






IPSWICH BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN IPSWICH BASIN:

Andover, Beverly, Billerica, Boxford, Burlington, Danvers, Hamilton, Ipswich, Lynnfield,

Middleton, North Andover, North Reading, Peabody, Reading, Rowley, Tewksbury, Topsfield,

Wenham, Wilmington, and Woburn



IPSWICH BASIN

Ipswich Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.48 +2.09 to +4.25 +2.74 to +6.21 +3.30 to +8.92 +3.59 to +10.76

Winter 29.02 +2.14 to +4.76 +2.84 to +7.16 +3.56 to +8.99 +3.86 to +10.45

Spring 46.97 +1.93 to +3.67 +2.61 to +5.51 +2.74 to +7.88 +3.35 to +9.61

Summer 69.56 +2.07 to +4.22 +2.69 to +6.56 +3.12 to +9.50 +3.71 to +12.03

Fall 51.99 +1.86 to +4.61 +3.25 to +6.49 +3.04 to +9.42 +3.51 to +11.76

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.64 +1.99 to +3.98 +2.53 to +5.98 +3.02 to +8.87 +3.27 to +10.65

Winter 38.33 +1.84 to +4.34 +2.42 to +6.66 +3.06 to +8.29 +3.42 to +9.59

Spring 57.4 +1.81 to +3.51 +2.32 to +5.52 +2.68 to +8.06 +3.22 to +9.54

Summer 80.22 +1.84 to +4.29 +2.55 to +6.48 +3.01 to +9.67 +3.51 to +12.17

Fall 62.19 +1.95 to +4.44 +2.94 to +6.65 +2.94 to +9.62 +3.37 to +12.06

Minimum Temperature

Annual 39.32 +2.18 to +4.56 +2.97 to +6.34 +3.59 to +8.93 +3.92 to +10.86

Winter 19.7 +2.42 to +5.22 +3.16 to +7.66 +4.12 to +9.68 +4.31 to +11.13

Spring 36.54 +2.02 to +3.93 +2.87 to +5.83 +2.93 to +7.69 +3.49 to +9.52

Summer 58.9 +2.18 to +4.28 +2.84 to +6.88 +3.23 to +9.34 +3.88 to +11.90

Fall 41.79 +1.81 to +4.81 +3.23 to +6.34 +3.14 to +9.33 +3.65 to +11.61

The Ipswich basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.5 °F to 12.2 °F (4-15% increase).




21st century.




11.6 °F (9-28% increase).

IPSWICH BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 6.88 +5.55 to +17.30 +8.48 to +30.62 +10.21 to +50.12 +11.88 to +68.93

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.34 +0.23 to +0.75 +0.35 to +1.37 +0.40 to +2.25 +0.24 to +3.83

Summer 6.23 +4.81 to +15.24 +6.99 to +24.93 +8.69 to +40.55 +10.55 to +54.68

Fall 0.31 +0.34 to +1.88 +0.70 to +4.75 +0.67 to +8.59 +1.14 to +11.81

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.62 +1.61 to +6.48 +2.29 to +12.74 +3.01 to +26.29 +4.58 to +40.81

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.02 to +0.19 +0.03 to +0.38 +0.06 to +0.67 +0.06 to +1.37

Summer 0.62 +1.51 to +5.95 +2.02 to +11.16 +2.85 to +22.65 +4.24 to +35.46

Fall 0.00 +0.03 to +0.50 +0.05 to +1.41 +0.08 to +3.44 +0.15 to +4.77

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.05 +0.10 to +1.30 +0.22 to +3.34 +0.31 to +7.52 +0.24 to +14.18

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.36

Summer 0.05 +0.10 to +1.25 +0.20 to +3.21 +0.28 to +7.16 +0.24 to +13.11

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.18 +0.00 to +0.51 +0.00 to +1.00


century, the Ipswich basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Ipswich basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Ipswich basin is expected to have 11 to 55 more days.

IPSWICH BASIN

Ipswich Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 4.12 -1.03 to -2.71 -1.29 to -3.13 -1.43 to -3.36 -1.42 to -3.46

Winter 4.06 -1.02 to -2.59 -1.24 to -2.92 -1.38 to -3.27 -1.39 to -3.38

Spring 0.04 -0.20 to +0.03 -0.00 to -0.23 -0.01 to -0.29 -0.01 to -0.25

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.02 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 129.69 -11.50 to -28.24 -17.60 to -41.81 -21.23 to -55.33 -23.38 to -65.25

Winter 78.98 -3.33 to -8.87 -4.15 to -15.58 -6.11 to -24.32 -7.88 to -30.84

Spring 30.97 -4.54 to -10.85 -7.06 to -14.80 -7.84 to -18.42 -8.73 to -20.14

Summer 0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Fall 19.71 -3.66 to -8.72 -6.20 to -11.46 -6.68 to -14.55 -5.80 to -16.33


century, the Ipswich basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

IPSWICH BASIN

Ipswich Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6269.22 -514.70 to -1104.48 -689.55 to -1507.20 -829.20 to -2019.14 -925.38 to -2407.09

Winter 3256.74 -189.28 to -442.05 -248.14 to -659.82 -315.52 to -815.64 -358.00 to -959.71

Spring 1681.62 -158.49 to -304.79 -215.06 to -457.84 -230.23 to -625.36 -294.57 to -735.28

Summer 87.73 -31.97 to -55.7 -39.64 to -71.22 -48.25 to -79.85 -51.73 to -82.69

Fall 1239.97 -124.14 to -332.50 -231.67 to -426.84 -220.85 to -611.72 -241.44 to -700.90

Cooling

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 590.1 +212.91 to +447.96 +291.57 to +754.03 +342.03 to +1151.97 +398.58 to +1521.14

Winter nan -0.66 to +2.44 -0.43 to +5.63 +0.17 to +3.39 +0.35 to +6.21

Spring 23.07 +14.42 to +33.62 +22.44 to +57.45 +26.10 to +98.15 +20.27 to +146.59

Summer 507.15 +154.20 to +335.29 +196.37 to +538.65 +232.59 to +797.31 +280.33 to +1025.47

Fall 54.37 +31.12 to +93.25 +45.05 to +178.18 +54.35 to +275.58 +78.85 to +357.99

Growing

Degree-

Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2628.19 +397.84 to +810.94 +555.57 to +1237.46 +632.10 to +1937.88 +716.22 to +2437.70

Winter 5.96 +0.08 to +15.21 +2.20 to +18.07 +5.89 to +30.73 +4.55 to +40.02

Spring 299.31 +82.40 to +158.16 +105.22 to +258.47 +120.04 to +387.06 +129.58 to +502.31

Summer 1799.53 +190.20 to +388.02 +247.15 to +603.09 +286.26 to +874.19 +340.70 to +1106.56

Fall 516.06 +96.21 to +288.72 +167.20 to +423.63 +154.45 to +644.57 +209.73 to +814.99


end of the century, the Ipswich basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.

o The winter season is expected to see a decrease of 8-20% (248 -660 degree-days) by




century.



century.













IPSWICH BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.87 +0.10 to +1.81 +0.43 to +2.57 +0.94 to +2.45 +1.06 to +3.20

Winter 1.96 +0.02 to +0.63 +0.15 to +1.09 +0.20 to +1.45 +0.29 to +1.60

Spring 1.78 -0.19 to +0.73 -0.03 to +0.89 +0.10 to +1.16 +0.06 to +1.13

Summer 1.69 -0.16 to +0.45 -0.11 to +0.51 -0.11 to +0.55 -0.13 to +0.51

Fall 2.45 -0.27 to +0.58 -0.18 to +0.76 -0.42 to +0.60 -0.42 to +0.75

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1.05 +0.02 to +0.45 -0.01 to +0.60 +0.09 to +0.69 +0.14 to +0.82

Winter 0.19 -0.04 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.15 +0.00 to +0.22 +0.04 to +0.29

Spring 0.22 -0.06 to +0.18 -0.05 to +0.21 -0.06 to +0.27 +0.00 to +0.33

Summer 0.27 -0.09 to +0.12 -0.06 to +0.14 -0.04 to +0.14 -0.05 to +0.16

Fall 0.38 -0.04 to +0.23 -0.02 to +0.22 +0.02 to +0.20 -0.06 to +0.28

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.05 -0.01 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.15 -0.01 to +0.12 -0.01 to +0.20

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02

Spring 0.00 -0.02 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.08

Summer 0.00 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.05

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.04 to +0.12


for the Ipswich basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.




of 0-1 days by mid-century, and of an increase of 0-1. days by the end of century.

IPSWICH BASIN

Ipswich Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.59 -0.11 to +4.29 +0.04 to +5.35 +0.54 to +6.61 +0.73 to +7.00

Winter 11.56 -0.33 to +1.69 +0.14 to +2.27 +0.20 to +2.96 +0.51 to +3.96

Spring 11.63 -0.36 to +2.25 -0.05 to +2.12 +0.12 to +2.57 +0.12 to +2.57

Summer 10.22 -0.36 to +1.26 -0.55 to +1.93 -0.81 to +2.01 -1.64 to +1.80

Fall 12.24 -1.04 to +0.91 -1.10 to +1.44 -1.80 to +1.60 -1.61 to +1.33


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Ipswich basin.





The summer season projections for the Ipswich or basin could see a decrease of




The fall season projections for the Ipswich basin could see a decrease of 1.1 to

an increase of 1.4 inches by mid-century (decrease of 9% to increase of 12% and



Ipswich Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.79 -0.27 to +1.72 -0.05 to +2.50 -0.74 to +2.82 -0.15 to +3.09

Winter 11.72 -0.77 to +1.27 -0.84 to +1.20 -0.96 to +2.25 -1.17 to +2.02

Spring 11.18 -0.76 to +1.15 -1.20 to +1.17 -1.28 to +1.10 -1.28 to +1.04

Summer 12.99 -0.65 to +1.83 -0.73 to +1.63 -0.94 to +2.94 -1.12 to +2.34

Fall 12.3 +0.21 to +1.96 +0.15 to +2.86 -0.10 to +3.51 -0.06 to +3.19




o For all the temporal parameters, the Ipswich basin is expected to see a slight decrease






MERRIMACK BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN MERRIMACK BASIN:

Amesbury, Andover, Ashburnham, Ashby, Ayer, Boxborough, Boxford, Chelmsford, Dracut,

Dunstable, Georgetown, Groton, Groveland, Harvard, Haverhill, Lawrence, Littleton, Lowell,

Merrimac, Methuen, Newbury, Newburyport, North Andover, Salisbury, Tewksbury, West

Newbury, and Westford



MERRIMACK BASIN

Merrimack Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 48.09 +2.24 to +4.44 +2.96 to +6.39 +3.56 to +9.13 +3.90 to +10.94

Winter 26.83 +2.45 to +5.27 +3.18 to +7.77 +3.99 to +9.50 +4.27 to +10.83

Spring 46.06 +1.72 to +3.47 +2.55 to +5.37 +2.71 to +7.70 +3.29 to +9.43

Summer 68.79 +2.08 to +4.33 +2.81 to +6.67 +3.23 to +9.92 +3.75 to +12.47

Fall 50.3 +2.30 to +5.02 +3.25 to +6.70 +3.52 to +9.57 +4.02 to +11.78

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.14 +2.14 to +4.20 +2.74 to +6.30 +3.26 to +9.12 +3.58 to +10.87

Winter 36.74 +2.13 to +4.83 +2.78 to +7.26 +3.42 to +8.80 +3.78 to +9.97

Spring 57.46 +1.60 to +3.40 +2.21 to +5.48 +2.63 to +7.90 +3.23 to +9.35

Summer 80.47 +1.85 to +4.36 +2.66 to +6.70 +3.11 to +10.15 +3.62 to +12.75

Fall 61.48 +2.43 to +4.89 +3.54 to +6.93 +3.43 to +9.85 +3.93 to +12.19

Minimum Temperature

Annual 37.04 +2.33 to +4.76 +3.21 to +6.54 +3.86 to +9.09 +4.23 to +11.02

Winter 16.93 +2.73 to +5.76 +3.57 to +8.28 +4.62 to +10.21 +4.77 to +11.56

Spring 34.65 +1.85 to +3.79 +2.73 to +5.70 +2.86 to +7.47 +3.35 to +9.25

Summer 57.1 +2.19 to +4.47 +2.97 to +7.06 +3.35 to +9.68 +3.96 to +12.18

Fall 39.13 +2.18 to +5.17 +3.54 to +6.62 +3.61 to +9.38 +4.11 to +11.59

The Merrimack basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.6 °F to 12.8 °F (4-16% increase).




21st century.




11.6 °F (11-30% increase).

MERRIMACK BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.43 +7.35 to +20.01 +10.5 to +33.34 +12.50 to +54.70 +14.93 to +73.79

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.4 +0.16 to +0.81 +0.44 to +1.56 +0.40 to +2.95 +0.26 to +4.65

Summer 6.71 +6.40 to +16.92 +8.55 to +27.76 +10.9 to +44.02 +12.75 to +58.04

Fall 0.32 +0.50 to +2.50 +0.78 to +5.27 +0.79 to +9.33 +1.35 to +12.68

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.68 +2.39 to +8.26 +3.34 to +15.95 +4.33 to +31.40 +5.88 to +48.56

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.03 to +0.27 +0.05 to +0.44 +0.09 to +1.05 +0.07 to +2.07

Summer 0.67 +2.11 to +7.55 +2.89 to +14.18 +3.76 to +27.12 +5.39 to +41.58

Fall 0.00 +0.13 to +0.80 +0.22 to +1.91 +0.23 to +4.44 +0.40 to +6.05

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.04 +0.30 to +2.26 +0.43 to +4.91 +0.77 to +11.36 +0.67 to +21.83

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.19 +0.00 to +0.61

Summer 0.04 +0.28 to +2.14 +0.37 to +4.66 +0.69 to +10.41 +0.62 to +19.98

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.16 +0.01 to +0.37 +0.00 to +0.98 +0.00 to +1.57


century, the Merrimack basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Merrimack basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Merrimack basin is expected to have 13 to 58 more days.

MERRIMACK BASIN

Merrimack Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 6.82 -1.96 to -4.03 -2.18 to -4.56 -2.53 to -5.04 -2.51 to -5.21

Winter 6.66 -1.83 to -3.79 -2.09 to -4.27 -2.42 to -4.8 -2.45 to -5.01

Spring 0.16 -0.34 to +0.02 -0.04 to -0.38 -0.04 to -0.42 -0.04 to -0.39

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.03 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 148.02 -11.77 to -29.91 -19.48 to -42.17 -23.32 to -56.29 -25.48 to -66.09

Winter 83.44 -2.34 to -7.11 -3.47 to -12.22 -5.12 to -20.48 -6.10 to -25.25

Spring 37.47 -4.06 to -11.56 -7.16 to -15.46 -7.95 to -19.35 -8.84 to -20.82

Summer 0.00 -0.09 to -0.00 -0.13 to -0.00 -0.13 to -0.00 -0.10 to -0.00

Fall 27.08 -4.77 to -11.20 -8.54 to -14.50 -8.73 to -18.31 -8.66 to -20.26


century, the Merrimack basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


of century.


end of century.

MERRIMACK BASIN

Merrimack Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6692.63 -571.53 to -1185.29 -769.13 to -1620.80 -913.69 to -2135.09 -1031.63 to -2502.63

Winter 3449.54 -217.49 to -492.24 -281.99 to -714.36 -353.03 to -864.63 -395.32 to -997.11

Spring 1761.74 -143.65 to -291.13 -213.01 to -449.17 -224.61 to -613.27 -289.89 to -720.43

Summer 106.18 -34.36 to -62.23 -43.41 to -78.59 -53.81 to -90.09 -54.15 to -92.13

Fall 1380.99 -160.47 to -374.20 -279.24 to -463.14 -265.99 to -648.86 -284.96 to -735.43

Cooling

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 525.67 +208.98 to +444.39 +282.60 to +736.76 +340.96 to +1153.77 +398.86 to +1517.97


Spring 19.61 +10.42 to +29.56 +18.86 to +51.44 +20.25 to +90.43 +15.98 to +126.25

Summer 454.57 +156.46 to +337.24 +199.35 to +541.85 +236.07 to +827.70 +278.39 to +1057.10

Fall 42.93 +31.41 to +93.67 +47.53 to +166.50 +54.92 to +258.13 +77.96 to +334.79

Growing

Degree-

Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2465.75 +406.48 to +811.95 +548.63 to +1226.38 +640.53 to +1922.61 +730.40 to +2412.64

Winter 5.68 -0.54 to +11.38 +1.96 to +14.51 +4.57 to +23.80 +3.40 to +32.10

Spring 275.92 +63.21 to +136.48 +89.34 to +238.57 +110.31 to +362.33 +116.40 to +471.38

Summer 1728.52 +191.00 to +398.24 +257.83 to +613.64 +296.73 to +912.00 +344.12 to +1146.51

Fall 441.6 +108.94 to +295.58 +179.07 to +415.16 +168.86 to +622.47 +214.22 to +778.86


end of the century, the Merrimack basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













MERRIMACK BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 6.72 +0.19 to +1.61 +0.38 to +2.58 +1.05 to +2.52 +0.95 to +3.51

Winter 1.58 -0.09 to +0.69 +0.12 to +1.03 +0.19 to +1.33 +0.27 to +1.59

Spring 1.52 -0.11 to +0.64 -0.05 to +0.92 +0.01 to +1.10 +0.10 to +1.21

Summer 1.42 -0.12 to +0.46 -0.15 to +0.69 -0.09 to +0.61 -0.14 to +0.52

Fall 2.19 -0.26 to +0.58 -0.05 to +0.74 -0.15 to +0.78 -0.23 to +0.72

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.76 +0.01 to +0.42 +0.00 to +0.50 +0.11 to +0.61 +0.11 to +0.70

Winter 0.09 -0.04 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.17

Spring 0.12 -0.05 to +0.15 -0.03 to +0.16 -0.07 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.23

Summer 0.18 -0.06 to +0.16 -0.02 to +0.16 -0.03 to +0.14 -0.01 to +0.17

Fall 0.36 -0.06 to +0.31 -0.08 to +0.22 -0.04 to +0.23 -0.08 to +0.29

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.07 -0.01 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.16

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04

Summer 0.02 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.01 to +0.05

Fall 0.04 -0.03 to +0.11 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.05 to +0.09


for the Merrimack basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.




of 0-1 days by mid-century, and of an increase of 0-1 days by the end of century.

MERRIMACK BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 44.21 +0.12 to +4.54 -0.02 to +5.82 +0.89 to +6.93 +0.91 to +7.57

Winter 10.79 -0.46 to +1.85 -0.03 to +2.41 +0.36 to +3.01 +0.41 to +3.79

Spring 11.27 -0.13 to +2.24 -0.09 to +2.08 +0.13 to +2.64 +0.24 to +2.54

Summer 10.32 -0.15 to +1.31 -0.64 to +2.04 -0.75 to +1.83 -1.06 to +1.78

Fall 11.85 -1.14 to +1.06 -1.14 to +1.49 -1.60 to +1.36 -1.39 to +1.26


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Merrimack basin.





The summer season projections for the Merrimack or basin could see a decrease




The fall season projections for the Merrimack basin could see a decrease of 1.1




Merrimack Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.41 -0.66 to +1.21 -0.42 to +2.01 -0.88 to +2.42 -0.44 to +2.66

Winter 12.12 -0.79 to +1.14 -0.63 to +1.57 -0.94 to +1.50 -0.95 to +1.60

Spring 11.74 -0.94 to +0.68 -1.39 to +1.30 -1.69 to +1.14 -1.29 to +0.81

Summer 13.32 -0.81 to +1.38 -0.53 to +1.73 -0.90 to +2.39 -1.02 to +2.35

Fall 12.23 -0.13 to +1.80 -0.48 to +2.47 -0.44 to +3.02 -0.21 to +2.63




o For all the temporal parameters, the Merrimack basin is expected to see a slight






MILLERS BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN MILLERS BASIN:

Ashburnham, Athol, Erving, Gardner, Hubbardston, Montague, New Salem, Northfield, Orange,

Petersham, Phillipston, Royalston, Templeton, Warwick, Wendell, Westminster, and

Winchendon



MILLERS BASIN

Millers Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 44.72 +2.16 to +4.45 +2.95 to +6.27 +3.48 to +8.87 +3.86 to +10.82

Winter 22.38 +2.35 to +5.23 +2.94 to +7.62 +3.81 to +9.09 +4.18 to +10.45

Spring 43.18 +1.50 to +3.39 +2.29 to +5.16 +2.56 to +7.32 +3.00 to +8.92

Summer 65.96 +2.21 to +4.53 +3.06 to +7.12 +3.38 to +10.47 +3.79 to +12.90

Fall 46.97 +2.09 to +5.17 +3.62 to +6.54 +3.50 to +9.38 +3.95 to +11.74

Maximum Temperature

Annual 56.56 +1.98 to +4.20 +2.60 to +6.41 +3.06 to +9.06 +3.45 to +11.03

Winter 33.12 +1.91 to +4.48 +2.46 to +6.73 +3.02 to +7.97 +3.41 to +9.04

Spring 55.22 +1.31 to +3.23 +2.09 to +5.25 +2.57 to +7.62 +3.05 to +9.18

Summer 78.66 +1.89 to +4.65 +2.75 to +7.42 +3.19 to +11.00 +3.63 to +13.57

Fall 58.78 +2.33 to +4.98 +3.54 to +7.00 +3.28 to +9.86 +3.94 to +12.23

Minimum Temperature

Annual 32.89 +2.31 to +4.88 +3.29 to +6.43 +3.79 to +8.75 +4.20 to +10.86

Winter 11.64 +2.74 to +6.12 +3.52 to +8.41 +4.42 to +10.21 +4.79 to +11.66

Spring 31.14 +1.59 to +3.76 +2.36 to +5.62 +2.74 to +7.11 +3.07 to +8.76

Summer 53.27 +2.38 to +4.60 +3.22 to +7.29 +3.57 to +9.93 +3.97 to +12.34

Fall 35.15 +1.81 to +5.27 +3.38 to +6.56 +3.61 to +9.01 +3.97 to +11.41

The Millers basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the 21st



projections.




of 3.6 °F to 13.6 °F (5-17% increase).




21st century.



o Fall mid-century of 3.4 °F to 6.6 °F (10-19% increase); end of century increase of 4°F to

11.4 °F (11-32% increase).

MILLERS BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 4.35 +5.29 to +16.29 +8.07 to +29.76 +9.54 to +51.07 +11.57 to +69.80

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.27 +0.09 to +0.78 +0.29 to +1.59 +0.30 to +2.83 +0.24 to +4.65

Summer 3.94 +4.69 to +14.50 +6.99 to +25.60 +8.62 to +42.72 +10.21 to +57.04

Fall 0.13 +0.26 to +1.25 +0.32 to +2.97 +0.39 to +6.51 +0.66 to +9.38

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.29 +1.23 to +5.63 +1.66 to +13.16 +2.46 to +28.04 +3.23 to +44.44

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.17 +0.01 to +0.39 +0.03 to +0.95 +0.00 to +1.64

Summer 0.29 +1.15 to +5.05 +1.54 to +12.07 +2.15 to +25.09 +3.02 to +39.50

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.44 +0.03 to +0.76 +0.03 to +1.76 +0.06 to +3.05

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.04 to +1.06 +0.09 to +3.27 +0.11 to +9.08 +0.09 to +19.79

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.32

Summer 0.00 +0.03 to +0.94 +0.08 to +3.19 +0.11 to +8.58 +0.09 to +18.61

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.36 +0.00 to +0.77


century, the Millers basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily maximum


o Annually, the Millers basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Millers basin is expected to have 10 to 57 more days.

MILLERS BASIN

Millers Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 18.79 -5.70 to -10.60 -7.53 to -12.57 -8.81 to -13.69 -8.69 to -14.92

Winter 17.86 -5.25 to -10.28 -7.08 to -12.10 -8.05 to -13.03 -8.19 to -14.23

Spring 0.97 -0.20 to -0.73 -0.31 to -0.76 -0.38 to -0.78 -0.37 to -0.89

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.05 -0.06 to -0.00 -0.06 to -0.00 -0.06 to -0.00 -0.07 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 176.75 -10.67 to -28.21 -18.77 to -35.08 -21.86 to -49.35 -22.00 to -58.28

Winter 87.56 -0.58 to -3.64 -1.06 to -5.37 -2.08 to -10.17 -2.33 to -13.23

Spring 49.34 -3.56 to -10.22 -5.99 to -14.61 -6.79 to -18.63 -8.55 to -21.33

Summer 0.14 -0.03 to -0.41 -0.04 to -0.84 -0.04 to -0.77 -0.04 to -0.62

Fall 39.7 -4.97 to -13.93 -9.57 to -16.58 -9.01 to -22.47 -9.58 to -25.78


century, the Millers basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





of century.


end of century.

o Fall is expected to have 10 to 17 by mid-century, and 10 to 26 fewer days by end of

century.

MILLERS BASIN

Millers Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7741.38 -610.29 to -1278.14 -824.25 to -1741.67 -970.13 to -2302.67 -1075.62 to -2685.21

Winter 3856.96 -199.87 to -485.87 -259.02 to -702.15 -340.89 to -825.99 -386.72 to -963.36

Spring 2019.38 -126.13 to -293.44 -196.10 to -445.65 -215.88 to -594.62 -267.77 to -699.74

Summer 200.71 -64.62 to -113.38 -88.45 to -145.21 -95.52 to -165.79 -102.84 to -175.82

Fall 1665.5 -170.32 to -423.42 -303.76 to -510.21 -284.09 to -715.93 -303.99 to -838.98

Cooling

Degree-

Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 327.31 +171.07 to +367.45 +233.43 to +646.93 +266.31 to +1016.23 +307.93 to +1348.64


Spring 12.74 +8.23 to +21.94 +11.51 to +42.83 +16.82 to +72.68 +13.54 to +102.29

Summer 289.31 +142.12 to +302.44 +177.37 to +511.21 +204.57 to +795.69 +232.29 to +1014.36

Fall 22.77 +17.29 to +60.37 +26.15 to +100.06 +32.14 to +172.16 +43.58 to +236.34

Growing

Degree-

Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2002.2 +361.79 to +745.86 +487.19 to +1188.76 +588.76 to +1777.29 +666.50 to +2253.25

Winter 2.13 -3.22 to +6.15 -1.82 to +6.52 -0.64 to +8.87 +1.07 to +9.68

Spring 215.17 +54.93 to +114.02 +78.42 to +201.80 +97.84 to +306.95 +97.04 to +401.27

Summer 1470.91 +201.90 to +414.64 +277.06 to +653.56 +307.78 to +960.77 +345.17 to +1184.43

Fall 304.68 +93.21 to +248.96 +142.12 to +349.65 +138.87 to +540.88 +184.25 to +676.90


end of the century, the Millers basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.


expected to increase by 61-177% (177 -511 degree-days) by mid-century, and by 80-351% (232 -











MILLERS BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 5.94 -0.03 to +1.69 +0.37 to +2.49 +0.89 to +2.58 +0.69 to +3.39

Winter 1.07 -0.07 to +0.51 +0.03 to +0.67 +0.10 to +1.16 +0.19 to +1.43

Spring 1.32 -0.16 to +0.57 -0.10 to +0.69 +0.01 to +0.95 +0.05 to +1.28

Summer 1.73 -0.25 to +0.51 -0.19 to +0.78 -0.19 to +0.70 -0.18 to +0.61

Fall 1.8 -0.31 to +0.60 -0.10 to +0.76 -0.27 to +0.85 -0.37 to +1.04

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.41 -0.05 to +0.30 -0.01 to +0.34 -0.02 to +0.38 +0.03 to +0.42

Winter 0.02 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.07

Spring 0.08 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.15

Summer 0.17 -0.07 to +0.14 -0.06 to +0.18 -0.04 to +0.14 -0.04 to +0.20

Fall 0.13 -0.05 to +0.16 -0.03 to +0.18 -0.04 to +0.17 -0.05 to +0.19

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.00 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.05

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.03 to +0.01 -0.01 to +0.02

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.04


for the Millers basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





MILLERS BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.58 -0.23 to +4.55 +1.01 to +5.93 +1.40 to +6.97 +1.31 to +7.41

Winter 10.42 -0.40 to +1.83 +0.10 to +2.15 +0.40 to +2.69 +0.67 to +3.70

Spring 11.5 -0.17 to +2.08 +0.04 to +1.80 +0.33 to +2.50 +0.03 to +2.65

Summer 11.99 -0.34 to +1.47 -0.16 to +2.05 -0.29 to +1.68 -0.78 to +1.88

Fall 11.66 -1.19 to +1.40 -1.15 to +1.48 -1.53 to +1.63 -1.65 to +1.42


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Millers basin.





The summer season projections for the Millers or basin could see a decrease of




The fall season projections for the Millers basin could see a decrease of 1.2 to an




Millers Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.38 -0.06 to +1.54 -0.67 to +1.66 -0.82 to +2.07 -0.48 to +2.14

Winter 10.73 -0.77 to +0.83 -0.65 to +1.53 -1.19 to +1.32 -1.19 to +1.09

Spring 11.41 -1.17 to +0.50 -1.21 to +1.04 -1.46 to +1.27 -1.28 to +0.83

Summer 11.53 -0.83 to +1.30 -0.64 to +1.23 -0.81 to +1.79 -1.30 to +1.80

Fall 11.53 -0.10 to +1.93 -0.38 to +2.46 -0.33 to +2.73 -0.23 to +3.15




o For all the temporal parameters, the Millers basin is expected to see a slight decrease to






NARRAGANSETT BAY & MT. HOPE BAY BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN NARRAGANSETT BAY & MT. HOPE BAY BASIN:

Attleboro, Dighton, Fall River, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Somerset, Swansea, and Westport




Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay

Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 50.46 +2.07 to +3.81 +2.71 to +6.04 +3.21 to +8.67 +3.49 to +10.61

Winter 30.58 +2.30 to +4.59 +3.02 to +6.99 +3.62 to +9.07 +4.07 to +10.45

Spring 47.94 +1.77 to +3.52 +2.51 to +5.63 +2.68 to +7.74 +3.15 to +9.41

Summer 70.21 +1.63 to +3.82 +2.16 to +6.20 +2.75 to +9.53 +3.34 to +11.58

Fall 52.78 +2.08 to +4.52 +3.44 to +6.40 +3.27 to +9.07 +3.72 to +11.20

Maximum Temperature

Annual 60.34 +1.94 to +3.78 +2.53 to +6.00 +2.95 to +8.69 +3.19 to +10.51

Winter 39.47 +2.00 to +4.48 +2.69 to +6.53 +3.21 to +8.49 +3.65 to +9.79

Spring 58.11 +1.57 to +3.44 +2.16 to +5.44 +2.65 to +7.83 +3.06 to +9.18

Summer 80.61 +1.56 to +3.71 +2.04 to +6.13 +2.67 to +9.65 +3.12 to +11.59

Fall 62.78 +2.11 to +4.42 +3.29 to +6.43 +3.16 to +8.99 +3.52 to +11.34

Minimum Temperature

Annual 40.59 +2.18 to +3.88 +2.91 to +6.17 +3.48 to +8.66 +3.80 to +10.65

Winter 21.68 +2.67 to +4.82 +3.34 to +7.44 +4.10 to +9.60 +4.51 to +11.02

Spring 37.78 +1.92 to +3.63 +2.82 to +5.89 +2.74 to +7.68 +3.26 to +9.37

Summer 59.81 +1.74 to +3.84 +2.29 to +6.26 +2.83 to +9.36 +3.56 to +11.41

Fall 42.79 +2.04 to +4.62 +3.45 to +6.37 +3.31 to +9.01 +3.93 to +11.08

The Narragansett Bay and Mt. Hope Bay basin is expected to experience increased average

temperatures throughout the 21st century. Maximum and minimum temperatures are also

expected to increase throughout the end of the century. These increased temperature trends

are expected for annual and seasonal projections.




of 3.1 °F to 11.6 °F (4-14% increase).

o Fall mid-century increase of 3.3 °F to 6.4 °F (5-10% increase); end of century increase by



21st century.




11.1 °F (9-26% increase).


Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.08 +4.89 to +13.51 +7.18 to +28.94 +8.93 to +50.87 +11.52 to +66.23

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.51 +0.05 to +0.57 +0.13 to +0.87 +0.13 to +1.54 +0.15 to +2.76

Summer 6.24 +4.23 to +11.69 +6.02 to +24.90 +7.91 to +42.75 +10.30 to +54.00

Fall 0.33 +0.44 to +1.65 +0.72 to +3.90 +0.73 to +7.24 +1.14 to +9.81

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.96 +1.28 to +4.34 +1.86 to +9.85 +2.50 to +24.05 +3.46 to +37.67

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.04 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.01 to +0.27 +0.03 to +0.47 +0.01 to +0.86

Summer 0.89 +1.16 to +3.83 +1.71 to +8.82 +2.35 to +21.68 +3.07 to +34.02

Fall 0.03 +0.02 to +0.54 +0.05 to +0.96 +0.12 to +2.40 +0.19 to +3.24

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.07 +0.11 to +0.73 +0.20 to +2.48 +0.30 to +5.86 +0.29 to +12.33

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.18

Summer 0.07 +0.09 to +0.69 +0.17 to +2.39 +0.29 to +5.44 +0.30 to +11.33

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.08 +0.00 to +0.18 +0.00 to +0.33 +0.00 to +0.84


century, the Narragansett Bay and Mt Hope Bay basin is also expected to experience an increase

in days with daily maximum temperatures over 90 °F, 95 °F, and 100 °F.

o Annually, the Narragansett Bay and Mt Hope Bay basin is expected to see days with

daily maximum temperatures over 90 °F increase by 7 to 29 more days by mid-century,

and 12 to 66 more days by the end of the century.



o By end of century, the Narragansett Bay and Mt Hope Bay basin is expected to have 10

to 54 more days.



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 1.98 -0.46 to -1.00 -0.50 to -1.21 -0.62 to -1.23 -0.53 to -1.24

Winter 1.97 -0.46 to -1.02 -0.53 to -1.21 -0.64 to -1.23 -0.54 to -1.24

Spring 0.01 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 120.51 -14.39 to -28.92 -19.61 to -45.66 -24.28 to -58.55 -25.86 to -68.72

Winter 76.43 -4.93 to -11.50 -6.81 to -19.79 -9.47 to -29.03 -10.53 to -36.42

Spring 26.92 -4.86 to -10.83 -7.32 to -15.11 -7.92 to -18.40 -9.03 to -19.81

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Fall 17.13 -4.35 to -8.72 -7.06 to -10.6 -7.50 to -13.10 -7.17 to -14.74


century, the Narragansett Bay and Mt. Hope Bay basin is expected to experience a decrease in

days with daily minimum temperatures below 32 °F and 0 °F.




by end of century.


end of century.


end of century.


Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay

Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 5947.54 -520.66 to -1014.09 -718.70 to -1490.26 -829.78 to -1955.26 -914.73 to -2319.93

Winter 3115.57 -212.77 to -423.50 -269.78 to -637.84 -323.62 to -821.09 -370.43 to -962.47

Spring 1589.54 -144.15 to -298.09 -209.39 to -468.77 -228.28 to -622.56 -283.86 to -725.61

Summer 67.81 -22.86 to -40.8 -30.66 to -51.86 -35.41 to -60.32 -36.71 to -64.75

Fall 1173.48 -138.90 to -316.55 -245.31 to -412.32 -223.07 to -579.92 -246.38 to -661.50

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 634.61 +207.13 to +432.54 +266.05 to +734.02 +315.26 to +1165.85 +376.09 to +1489.12


Spring 21.14 +11.35 to +29.16 +18.26 to +55.96 +19.91 to +91.12 +20.26 to +121.03

Summer 547.16 +126.20 to +311.65 +165.29 to +519.99 +215.00 to +818.10 +263.34 to +1003.77

Fall 62.06 +39.12 to +97.45 +55.88 to +176.18 +66.59 to +267.17 +97.47 to +347.67

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2741.84 +387.12 to +775.75 +515.49 to +1223.62 +592.10 to +1939.21 +679.51 to +2423.53

Winter 6.6 +1.28 to +18.76 +2.85 to +21.96 +8.06 to +39.27 +8.22 to +58.34

Spring 316.41 +74.92 to +146.85 +100.63 to +255.16 +105.37 to +391.21 +112.45 to +506.34

Summer 1859.36 +150.23 to +351.79 +198.88 to +569.91 +252.53 to +876.61 +307.36 to +1064.90

Fall 551.92 +105.89 to +283.50 +189.53 to +422.37 +180.33 to +617.58 +233.21 to +783.33


end of the century, the Narragansett Bay and Mt. Hope Bay basin is expected to experience a

decrease in heating degree-days, and increases in both cooling degree-days and growing

degree-days.



significant change.

o The winter season is expected to see a decrease of 9-20% (270 -638 -days) by mid-

century, and a decrease of 12-31% (370 -962 degree-days) by the end of century.



century.

o The fall season is expected to decreases in heating degree-days by 21-35% (245.-412


century.















Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.5 +0.38 to +1.94 +0.82 to +2.92 +0.79 to +3.32 +1.29 to +4.31

Winter 1.83 +0.05 to +0.79 +0.28 to +1.11 +0.22 to +1.39 +0.32 to +1.97

Spring 1.69 +0.05 to +0.77 +0.19 to +0.98 +0.38 to +1.27 +0.37 to +1.37

Summer 1.84 -0.17 to +0.42 -0.21 to +0.71 -0.03 to +0.66 -0.36 to +0.56

Fall 2.13 -0.18 to +0.56 -0.17 to +0.96 -0.23 to +0.84 -0.29 to +1.11

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.77 +0.05 to +0.49 +0.11 to +0.75 +0.09 to +0.86 +0.15 to +1.00

Winter 0.12 -0.02 to +0.13 -0.02 to +0.23 -0.02 to +0.26 -0.01 to +0.42

Spring 0.11 -0.02 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.19 +0.01 to +0.26 +0.02 to +0.35

Summer 0.34 -0.06 to +0.14 -0.01 to +0.23 -0.07 to +0.23 -0.14 to +0.24

Fall 0.2 +0.00 to +0.29 +0.02 to +0.27 +0.04 to +0.34 -0.02 to +0.47

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.02 -0.01 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.01 to +0.14

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Spring 0.01 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.01 to +0.02 -0.01 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.03

Summer 0.02 -0.01 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.07

Fall 0.00 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.07


for the Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.



o The spring season is expected to an increase in days with precipitation over one inch of

0-1 days by mid-century, and of an increase of 0-1 days by the end of century.



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 46.69 -0.12 to +4.17 +0.65 to +5.87 +1.37 to +7.03 +0.77 to +8.06

Winter 11.86 -0.29 to +1.75 +0.02 to +2.22 +0.20 to +2.84 +0.05 to +4.03

Spring 11.88 -0.06 to +1.88 +0.22 to +2.13 +0.23 to +2.49 +0.32 to +2.99

Summer 10.95 -0.68 to +1.31 -0.74 to +1.90 -1.56 to +2.24 -1.73 to +2.02

Fall 11.99 -0.70 to +1.03 -0.82 to +1.60 -1.44 to +1.66 -1.66 to +1.57


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Narragansett Bay & Mt.

Hope Bay basin.





The summer season projections for the Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay or

basin could see a decrease of 0.7 to an increase of 1.9 inches by mid-century

(decrease of 7% to increase of 17%) and a decrease of 1.7 to an increase of 2.0

inches by the end of the century (decrease of 16% to increase of 18%).

The fall season projections for the Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay basin could

see a decrease of 0.8 to an increase of 1.6 inches by mid-century (decrease of

7% to increase of 13% and a decrease of 1.7 to an increase of 1.6 inches by the

end of the century (decrease of 14% to increase of 13%).


Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.27 +0.05 to +1.84 -0.02 to +2.38 -1.29 to +3.19 -0.97 to +3.92

Winter 10.48 -0.72 to +1.82 -1.01 to +1.78 -0.51 to +2.07 -0.97 to +2.26

Spring 11.13 -1.13 to +0.55 -0.79 to +1.08 -1.09 to +1.04 -1.17 to +1.22

Summer 12.84 -1.07 to +1.82 -0.83 to +1.83 -1.32 to +2.69 -1.17 to +3.24

Fall 13.2 -0.13 to +2.17 -0.35 to +2.45 -0.65 to +2.76 -0.51 to +3.25




o For all the temporal parameters, the Narragansett Bay & Mt. Hope Bay basin is expected

to see a slight decrease to an increase in consecutive dry days throughout this century.



The fall season is expected to experience a decrease of 1 day to an increase of 3

days in consecutive dry days by the end of the century.

NASHUA BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN NASHUA BASIN:

Ashburnham, Ashby, Ayer, Bolton, Boyslton, Clinton, Dunstable, Fitchburg, Gardner, Groton,

Harvard, Holden, Hubbardston, Lancaster, Leominster, Lunenburg, Paxton, Pepperell,

Princeton, Rutland, Shirley, Sterling, Townsend, West Boyslton, Westminster, and Worcester



NASHUA BASIN

Nashua Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 46.78 +2.20 to +4.44 +2.99 to +6.39 +3.54 to +9.02 +3.90 to +10.95

Winter 25.2 +2.20 to +5.10 +2.81 to +7.60 +3.65 to +9.22 +3.94 to +10.58

Spring 44.94 +1.64 to +3.47 +2.51 to +5.53 +2.72 to +7.71 +3.25 to +9.45

Summer 67.56 +2.24 to +4.55 +3.14 to +7.02 +3.53 to +10.13 +3.98 to +12.60

Fall 49.01 +2.18 to +5.10 +3.71 to +6.64 +3.58 to +9.54 +4.05 to +11.79

Maximum Temperature

Annual 57.77 +2.06 to +4.26 +2.73 to +6.47 +3.23 to +9.09 +3.55 to +10.95

Winter 35.13 +1.84 to +4.62 +2.44 to +7.05 +3.02 to +8.41 +3.43 to +9.60

Spring 56.16 +1.52 to +3.43 +2.35 to +5.51 +2.67 to +7.91 +3.25 to +9.55

Summer 79.16 +1.97 to +4.68 +2.98 to +7.23 +3.42 to +10.45 +3.87 to +12.93

Fall 60.19 +2.34 to +4.92 +3.56 to +6.97 +3.45 to +9.79 +3.96 to +12.25

Minimum Temperature

Annual 35.78 +2.33 to +4.78 +3.26 to +6.47 +3.80 to +8.94 +4.24 to +11.00

Winter 15.26 +2.49 to +5.62 +3.27 to +8.10 +4.23 to +10.02 +4.41 to +11.40

Spring 33.72 +1.77 to +3.82 +2.66 to +5.92 +2.83 to +7.51 +3.25 to +9.31

Summer 55.97 +2.46 to +4.60 +3.23 to +7.16 +3.65 to +9.81 +4.12 to +12.27

Fall 37.83 +1.99 to +5.23 +3.62 to +6.59 +3.68 to +9.27 +4.11 to +11.62

The Nashua basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.9 °F to 12.9 °F (5-16% increase).

o Fall mid-century increase of 3.6 °F to 7 °F (6-12% increase); end of century increase by

and 4 °F to 12.3 °F (7-20% increase).


21st century.




11.6 °F (11-31% increase).

NASHUA BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 4.37 +5.83 to +17.04 +8.93 to +29.98 +10.40 to +49.93 +12.50 to +69.88

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.24 -0.00 to +0.65 +0.20 to +1.28 +0.21 to +2.51 +0.19 to +4.28

Summer 3.94 +5.20 to +14.96 +7.81 to +25.88 +9.57 to +42.15 +11.08 to +56.44

Fall 0.19 +0.32 to +1.41 +0.47 to +3.46 +0.42 to +7.15 +0.67 to +9.96

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.23 +1.39 to +6.21 +2.17 to +13.14 +2.81 to +26.83 +3.52 to +42.01

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.28 +0.00 to +0.72 +0.00 to +1.42

Summer 0.21 +1.28 to +5.58 +2.00 to +12.11 +2.49 to +23.90 +3.32 to +36.89

Fall 0.01 +0.03 to +0.43 +0.02 to +0.77 +0.04 to +2.16 +0.07 to +3.48

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.01 +0.10 to +1.12 +0.18 to +3.25 +0.24 to +8.55 +0.17 to +17.37

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.27

Summer 0.01 +0.10 to +1.08 +0.15 to +3.17 +0.22 to +8.08 +0.17 to +16.25

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.36 +0.00 to +0.84


century, the Nashua basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Nashua basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Nashua basin is expected to have 11 to 56 more days.

NASHUA BASIN

Nashua Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 9.32 -2.91 to -5.69 -3.75 to -6.66 -4.25 to -7.21 -4.24 to -7.76

Winter 9.03 -2.78 to -5.54 -3.51 to -6.46 -4.02 to -6.94 -4.09 to -7.47

Spring 0.3 -0.05 to -0.38 -0.09 to -0.39 -0.10 to -0.43 -0.10 to -0.43

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.02 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 156.4 -10.61 to -28.20 -18.80 to -38.26 -21.68 to -53.63 -22.97 to -63.67

Winter 85.3 -1.24 to -5.2 -2.10 to -8.23 -3.27 to -16.04 -3.66 to -20.34

Spring 40.46 -3.90 to -11.63 -6.35 to -15.66 -8.04 to -20.12 -9.00 to -21.62

Summer 0.04 -0.15 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.19 -0.00 to -0.16 -0.00 to -0.13

Fall 30.54 -5.14 to -12.23 -9.02 to -14.91 -8.88 to -18.95 -9.01 to -22.04


century, the Nashua basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

NASHUA BASIN

Nashua Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7091.79 -574.29 to -1223.22 -805.57 to -1700.61 -937.13 to -2246.51 -1053.84 to -2622.98

Winter 3601.55 -187.35 to -476.29 -247.70 to -697.10 -322.63 to -837.51 -365.72 to -974.31

Spring 1861.47 -138.32 to -302.13 -215.35 to -473.28 -230.00 to -622.45 -289.72 to -736.02

Summer 140.64 -48.96 to -83.63 -64.24 to -106.39 -72.51 to -119.59 -74.89 to -123.87

Fall 1488.15 -169.43 to -399.86 -295.39 to -489.23 -275.83 to -683.30 -296.08 to -784.01

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 432.47 +201.09 to +421.21 +270.66 to +711.61 +324.82 to +1091.32 +372.55 to +1458.24

Winter nan -1.75 to -1.75 +1.46 to +2.51 -0.95 to +0.57 -0.89 to +0.24

Spring 17.23 +9.26 to +23.64 +15.28 to +48.01 +18.93 to +84.62 +15.21 to +117.63

Summer 376.56 +163.10 to +334.53 +208.02 to +544.69 +241.40 to +817.45 +275.68 to +1038.01

Fall 32.88 +23.17 to +77.67 +36.85 to +131.04 +43.60 to +216.44 +62.31 to +296.90

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2270.01 +392.88 to +799.66 +533.36 to +1235.75 +647.26 to +1889.26 +730.02 to +2366.80

Winter 4.47 -1.32 to +7.50 -0.30 to +10.40 +0.84 to +14.27 +1.85 to +18.63

Spring 253.78 +58.70 to +127.26 +84.43 to +227.02 +101.03 to +345.92 +106.94 to +452.93

Summer 1616.56 +206.04 to +417.43 +287.04 to +644.86 +323.12 to +931.16 +364.44 to +1158.27

Fall 384.19 +108.96 to +283.49 +167.87 to +394.57 +159.46 to +593.10 +206.63 to +750.08


end of the century, the Nashua basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













NASHUA BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.34 +0.25 to +1.96 +0.54 to +3.32 +1.14 to +3.09 +1.05 to +4.00

Winter 1.76 -0.10 to +0.73 +0.11 to +1.06 +0.23 to +1.55 +0.36 to +1.98

Spring 1.54 -0.12 to +0.64 -0.16 to +0.88 -0.07 to +1.16 +0.03 to +1.41

Summer 1.69 -0.21 to +0.51 -0.06 to +0.71 -0.16 to +0.63 -0.24 to +0.72

Fall 2.33 -0.35 to +0.80 -0.15 to +1.01 -0.21 to +0.92 -0.38 to +1.06

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.7 -0.04 to +0.45 +0.07 to +0.44 +0.10 to +0.55 +0.12 to +0.64

Winter 0.05 -0.04 to +0.07 -0.04 to +0.09 -0.04 to +0.13 -0.04 to +0.16

Spring 0.19 -0.04 to +0.12 -0.01 to +0.17 +0.01 to +0.21 +0.02 to +0.31

Summer 0.16 -0.03 to +0.13 -0.02 to +0.13 -0.06 to +0.13 -0.06 to +0.14

Fall 0.3 -0.05 to +0.27 -0.03 to +0.27 -0.01 to +0.23 -0.07 to +0.24

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.02 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.09

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 -0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02

Summer 0.02 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.02 -0.02 to +0.03

Fall 0.00 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.04


for the Nashua basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





NASHUA BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.89 +0.43 to +4.88 +1.15 to +6.29 +2.26 to +7.87 +1.25 to +8.38

Winter 10.98 -0.30 to +1.90 +0.17 to +2.47 +0.39 to +3.34 +0.63 to +4.29

Spring 11.82 -0.02 to +2.18 +0.05 to +2.03 +0.47 to +2.98 +0.13 to +2.91

Summer 11.27 -0.28 to +1.51 -0.34 to +2.20 -0.57 to +2.22 -1.13 to +2.16

Fall 11.83 -1.11 to +1.13 -1.18 to +1.77 -1.61 to +1.71 -1.44 to +1.52


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Nashua basin.





The summer season projections for the Nashua or basin could see a decrease of




The fall season projections for the Nashua basin could see a decrease of 1.2 to




Nashua Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.21 -0.41 to +1.65 -0.79 to +1.71 -0.75 to +2.13 -0.64 to +2.82

Winter 11.14 -0.91 to +1.00 -0.63 to +1.42 -1.10 to +1.39 -0.92 to +1.54

Spring 10.62 -1.04 to +0.74 -1.21 to +1.31 -1.42 to +0.97 -1.55 to +0.75

Summer 11.6 -1.05 to +1.55 -0.64 to +1.62 -1.12 to +2.53 -1.41 to +2.60

Fall 11.9 -0.05 to +1.72 -0.13 to +2.55 -0.35 to +3.13 -0.45 to +3.20




o For all the temporal parameters, the Nashua basin is expected to see a slight decrease






NORTH COASTAL BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN NORTH COASTAL BASIN:

Beverly, Danvers, Essex, Everett, Gloucester, Hamilton, Ipswich, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden,

Manchester, Marblehead, Melrose, Nahant, Peabody, Reading, Revere, Rockport, Salem,

Salisbury, Saugus, Stoneham, Swampscott, Wakefield, and Wenham



NORTH COASTAL BASIN

North Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.69 +2.11 to +4.21 +2.71 to +6.19 +3.23 to +8.93 +3.51 to +10.78

Winter 29.52 +2.12 to +4.66 +2.79 to +6.99 +3.50 to +8.90 +3.85 to +10.35

Spring 47.04 +2.02 to +3.77 +2.68 to +5.67 +2.80 to +8.12 +3.38 to +9.87

Summer 69.56 +1.94 to +4.11 +2.48 to +6.40 +2.91 to +9.46 +3.51 to +12.06

Fall 52.28 +1.96 to +4.55 +3.25 to +6.45 +3.01 to +9.24 +3.53 to +11.61

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.15 +1.99 to +3.99 +2.54 to +5.98 +2.98 to +8.89 +3.24 to +10.68

Winter 38.13 +1.83 to +4.25 +2.39 to +6.55 +3.06 to +8.27 +3.44 to +9.56

Spring 56.76 +1.87 to +3.66 +2.40 to +5.65 +2.78 to +8.30 +3.31 to +9.82

Summer 79.63 +1.77 to +4.20 +2.39 to +6.31 +2.83 to +9.61 +3.31 to +12.17

Fall 61.67 +1.99 to +4.44 +2.97 to +6.56 +2.93 to +9.50 +3.38 to +11.87

Minimum Temperature

Annual 40.24 +2.18 to +4.45 +2.90 to +6.35 +3.49 to +8.98 +3.80 to +10.88

Winter 20.91 +2.40 to +5.05 +3.13 to +7.43 +3.99 to +9.51 +4.28 to +10.92

Spring 37.32 +2.09 to +3.96 +2.94 to +5.93 +2.96 to +7.94 +3.51 to +9.84

Summer 59.49 +2.03 to +4.08 +2.59 to +6.71 +3.01 to +9.32 +3.68 to +11.95

Fall 42.9 +1.93 to +4.69 +3.31 to +6.31 +3.13 to +9.22 +3.71 to +11.40

The North Coastal basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout







of 3.3 °F to 12.2 °F (4-15% increase).

o Fall mid-century increase of 3 °F to 6.6 °F (5-11% increase); end of century increase by



21st century.




11.4 °F (9-27% increase).

NORTH COASTAL BASIN

North Coastal Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.69 +4.95 to +15.28 +6.87 to +26.29 +8.40 to +44.55 +9.99 to +62.44

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.44 +0.20 to +0.69 +0.27 to +1.27 +0.35 to +2.06 +0.26 to +3.65

Summer 6.96 +4.33 to +13.36 +5.72 to +21.92 +7.32 to +36.60 +9.04 to +50.06

Fall 0.29 +0.27 to +1.52 +0.55 to +4.02 +0.61 to +7.35 +0.88 to +10.12

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.88 +1.31 to +5.65 +1.79 to +11.11 +2.58 to +22.84 +3.79 to +36.76

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.02 to +0.18 +0.00 to +0.37 +0.06 to +0.68 +0.06 to +1.38

Summer 0.87 +1.22 to +5.17 +1.61 to +10.05 +2.53 to +19.81 +3.30 to +31.92

Fall 0.01 +0.01 to +0.39 +0.02 to +1.16 +0.07 to +2.87 +0.11 to +3.84

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.04 +0.09 to +1.16 +0.16 to +3.10 +0.29 to +6.74 +0.24 to +12.53

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.33

Summer 0.04 +0.09 to +1.11 +0.15 to +2.94 +0.27 to +6.41 +0.23 to +11.39

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.17 +0.00 to +0.46 +0.00 to +0.77


century, the North Coastal basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the North Coastal basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the North Coastal basin is expected to have 9 to 50 more days.

NORTH COASTAL BASIN

North Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 2.95 -0.74 to -2.06 -0.90 to -2.38 -1.07 to -2.45 -1.00 to -2.52

Winter 2.93 -0.69 to -1.89 -0.87 to -2.25 -1.02 to -2.36 -0.97 to -2.43

Spring 0.01 -0.11 to +0.02 -0.01 to -0.11 -0.01 to -0.15 -0.01 to -0.13

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.01 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 120.82 -12.22 to -28.83 -17.84 to -43.56 -21.65 to -55.88 -23.01 to -65.50

Winter 76.8 -4.10 to -10.67 -4.91 to -18.32 -7.40 to -26.65 -8.57 to -34.00

Spring 27.42 -4.91 to -10.9 -7.06 to -14.96 -7.59 to -18.49 -8.66 to -20.08

Summer 0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00 -0.01 to -0.00

Fall 16.57 -3.98 to -8.1 -5.50 to -10.35 -6.53 to -12.47 -5.68 to -14.22


century, the North Coastal basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

NORTH COASTAL BASIN

North Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6193.81 -528.62 to -1102.64 -692.10 to -1516.82 -830.38 to -2018.81 -929.00 to -2400.79

Winter 3212 -188.00 to -430.36 -243.05 to -645.03 -310.20 to -807.53 -354.54 to -950.14

Spring 1675.26 -165.76 to -316.19 -222.17 to -473.13 -238.63 to -649.81 -302.20 to -763.26

Summer 87.94 -33.00 to -56.47 -40.33 to -71.25 -47.31 to -80.73 -51.48 to -83.01

Fall 1214.54 -134.08 to -331.01 -239.49 to -425.01 -227.88 to -603.93 -248.95 to -687.75

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 590.17 +204.10 to +434.37 +275.87 to +731.01 +319.84 to +1139.47 +371.06 to +1509.14

Winter nan +0.34 to +4.99 +0.29 to +5.52 +0.08 to +4.76 -0.10 to +6.13

Spring 23.9 +13.34 to +33.09 +22.55 to +56.81 +24.43 to +94.09 +19.24 to +142.13

Summer 507.43 +141.60 to +326.05 +182.27 to +522.95 +217.01 to +790.27 +263.52 to +1025.40

Fall 55.69 +30.02 to +89.23 +44.23 to +176.78 +53.38 to +271.87 +76.15 to +353.84

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2634.57 +387.11 to +794.67 +539.35 to +1228.18 +609.84 to +1941.74 +689.17 to +2448.70

Winter 5.96 +0.84 to +15.31 +2.52 to +18.15 +6.35 to +32.73 +5.45 to +41.95

Spring 296.04 +84.41 to +160.60 +107.65 to +261.80 +118.20 to +395.84 +129.35 to +513.56

Summer 1799.58 +178.50 to +377.86 +227.86 to +588.47 +267.34 to +870.20 +322.00 to +1109.17

Fall 527.84 +100.32 to +282.53 +170.51 to +427.24 +159.56 to +645.24 +213.63 to +810.83


end of the century, the North Coastal basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.





century.



century.













NORTH COASTAL BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.96 +0.22 to +1.91 +0.48 to +2.83 +0.99 to +2.70 +1.09 to +3.58

Winter 2.03 +0.02 to +0.77 +0.15 to +1.24 +0.21 to +1.58 +0.31 to +1.73

Spring 1.85 -0.13 to +0.77 -0.03 to +1.02 +0.09 to +1.28 +0.14 to +1.18

Summer 1.66 -0.14 to +0.51 -0.14 to +0.53 -0.14 to +0.57 -0.18 to +0.51

Fall 2.42 -0.29 to +0.61 -0.18 to +0.80 -0.40 to +0.62 -0.34 to +0.89

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1.1 +0.01 to +0.51 -0.02 to +0.65 +0.10 to +0.66 +0.12 to +0.88

Winter 0.19 -0.04 to +0.14 +0.01 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.24 +0.03 to +0.34

Spring 0.23 -0.04 to +0.16 -0.06 to +0.25 -0.05 to +0.26 +0.00 to +0.37

Summer 0.31 -0.06 to +0.12 -0.04 to +0.14 -0.04 to +0.11 -0.05 to +0.16

Fall 0.38 -0.06 to +0.24 -0.02 to +0.25 +0.00 to +0.24 -0.08 to +0.35

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.07 -0.01 to +0.12 +0.00 to +0.12 +0.00 to +0.12 -0.01 to +0.21

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.06

Summer 0.01 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.06

Fall 0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.09 -0.03 to +0.11


for the North Coastal basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





NORTH COASTAL BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.31 +0.02 to +4.41 +0.03 to +5.52 +0.72 to +6.70 +0.76 to +7.17

Winter 11.67 -0.32 to +1.77 +0.17 to +2.39 +0.30 to +3.12 +0.52 to +4.08

Spring 11.54 -0.22 to +2.15 -0.05 to +2.11 +0.08 to +2.57 +0.10 to +2.70

Summer 10.05 -0.34 to +1.41 -0.57 to +1.94 -0.97 to +2.10 -1.67 to +1.78

Fall 12.12 -1.07 to +0.89 -1.12 to +1.36 -1.88 to +1.54 -1.75 to +1.23


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the North Coastal basin.





The summer season projections for the North Coastal or basin could see a


increase of 19%) and a decrease of 1.1 to an increase of 2.2 inches by the end of


The fall season projections for the North Coastal basin could see a decrease of


11% and a decrease of 1.4 to an increase of 1.5 inches by the end of the century


North Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.01 -0.32 to +1.58 -0.15 to +2.57 -1.11 to +2.81 -0.20 to +2.74

Winter 11.35 -0.89 to +1.29 -0.71 to +1.40 -0.98 to +2.18 -1.12 to +1.93

Spring 11.21 -1.14 to +1.05 -1.10 to +1.08 -1.20 to +1.13 -1.34 to +0.95

Summer 13.22 -0.79 to +1.49 -0.69 to +1.63 -1.12 to +2.79 -1.04 to +2.50

Fall 12.25 -0.10 to +2.25 -0.12 to +3.05 -0.61 to +3.65 -0.12 to +3.14




o For all the temporal parameters, the North Coastal basin is expected to see a slight






PARKER BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN PARKER BASIN:

Boxford, Georgetown, Groveland, Ipswich, Newbury, Newburyport, North Andover, Rowley,

and West Newbury



PARKER BASIN

Parker Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.16 +2.20 to +4.31 +2.87 to +6.26 +3.38 to +9.02 +3.70 to +10.90

Winter 28.49 +2.34 to +5.00 +3.10 to +7.48 +3.81 to +9.44 +4.11 to +10.95

Spring 46.77 +2.00 to +3.78 +2.75 to +5.63 +2.87 to +8.04 +3.47 to +9.81

Summer 69.44 +1.94 to +4.06 +2.58 to +6.24 +3.02 to +9.24 +3.62 to +11.77

Fall 51.56 +1.98 to +4.70 +3.33 to +6.56 +3.16 to +9.49 +3.62 to +11.85

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.44 +2.07 to +4.08 +2.69 to +6.08 +3.12 to +9.00 +3.43 to +10.82

Winter 37.78 +2.04 to +4.65 +2.67 to +7.02 +3.36 to +8.81 +3.74 to +10.18

Spring 57.37 +1.84 to +3.62 +2.47 to +5.66 +2.84 to +8.23 +3.35 to +9.73

Summer 80.37 +1.78 to +4.15 +2.48 to +6.14 +2.91 to +9.41 +3.45 to +11.95

Fall 61.83 +2.04 to +4.58 +3.14 to +6.73 +3.06 to +9.74 +3.47 to +12.17

Minimum Temperature

Annual 38.88 +2.29 to +4.58 +3.09 to +6.39 +3.66 to +9.04 +4.00 to +10.98

Winter 19.21 +2.64 to +5.42 +3.47 to +7.95 +4.32 to +10.06 +4.57 to +11.58

Spring 36.16 +2.08 to +3.99 +3.01 to +5.87 +3.01 to +7.85 +3.58 to +9.75

Summer 58.52 +2.02 to +4.12 +2.67 to +6.64 +3.14 to +9.07 +3.77 to +11.59

Fall 41.29 +1.92 to +4.84 +3.27 to +6.41 +3.26 to +9.40 +3.79 to +11.68

The Parker basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the 21st



projections.




of 3.5 °F to 12 °F (4-15% increase).




21st century.

o Winter mid-century increase of 3.5 °F to 8 °F (18-41% increase); end of century increase

by 4.6 °F to 11.6 °F (24-60% increase).


11.7 °F (9-28% increase).

PARKER BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.84 +5.69 to +17.05 +8.85 to +29.76 +11.06 to +49.13 +12.68 to +67.40

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.41 +0.22 to +0.85 +0.45 to +1.45 +0.42 to +2.53 +0.26 to +4.40

Summer 7.09 +4.75 to +14.70 +7.27 to +23.60 +9.31 to +39.60 +11.08 to +53.05

Fall 0.35 +0.45 to +2.09 +0.70 to +4.74 +0.75 to +8.45 +0.99 to +11.87

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.89 +1.96 to +6.74 +2.43 to +12.44 +3.36 to +26.24 +5.03 to +40.88

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.03 to +0.27 +0.05 to +0.49 +0.07 to +0.88 +0.09 to +1.62

Summer 0.89 +1.75 to +6.27 +2.09 to +10.86 +2.93 to +22.67 +4.62 to +35.02

Fall 0.00 +0.06 to +0.59 +0.08 to +1.62 +0.12 to +3.73 +0.23 to +5.13

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.05 +0.14 to +1.53 +0.30 to +3.67 +0.45 to +8.10 +0.33 to +15.16

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.15 +0.00 to +0.44

Summer 0.05 +0.14 to +1.47 +0.26 to +3.49 +0.38 to +7.65 +0.32 to +13.87

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.09 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.65 +0.00 to +1.22


century, the Parker basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily maximum


o Annually, the Parker basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.


maximums over 90 °F by mid-century

o By end of century, the Parker basin is expected to have 11 to 53 more days.

PARKER BASIN

Parker Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 4.39 -1.08 to -2.72 -1.27 to -3.07 -1.44 to -3.13 -1.37 to -3.24

Winter 4.29 -1.01 to -2.41 -1.21 to -2.71 -1.38 to -2.97 -1.31 to -3.12

Spring 0.07 -0.23 to +0.00 -0.02 to -0.23 -0.02 to -0.26 -0.02 to -0.26

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.02 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 132.6 -12.17 to -29.34 -18.89 to -43.84 -22.50 to -57.61 -24.14 to -68.12

Winter 79.76 -3.42 to -8.85 -4.57 to -15.94 -6.55 to -24.71 -7.91 to -31.49

Spring 31.9 -4.84 to -11.32 -7.36 to -15.38 -8.33 to -18.80 -8.61 to -20.50

Summer 0.00 -0.09 to -0.00 -0.10 to -0.00 -0.12 to -0.00 -0.11 to -0.00

Fall 20.89 -3.99 to -9.99 -6.52 to -12.42 -6.99 to -15.27 -6.41 to -17.10


century, the Parker basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

PARKER BASIN

Parker Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6360.53 -551.73 to -1138.92 -728.11 to -1557.70 -871.53 to -2081.32 -972.78 to -2478.35

Winter 3300.37 -206.50 to -464.88 -270.66 to -689.72 -338.70 to -857.20 -381.47 to -1005.52

Spring 1700.34 -164.68 to -315.16 -227.39 to -463.78 -241.86 to -638.66 -304.78 to -751.54

Summer 89.98 -29.94 to -54.81 -39.26 to -68.98 -46.99 to -79.25 -49.09 to -79.76

Fall 1274.42 -135.10 to -342.22 -242.88 to -434.91 -227.44 to -624.07 -250.64 to -717.01

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 582.98 +206.58 to +433.24 +283.59 to +719.18 +338.43 to +1123.48 +397.58 to +1488.76


Spring 22.75 +14.59 to +34.40 +21.90 to +57.00 +25.08 to +96.54 +19.85 to +143.89

Summer 498.57 +143.61 to +317.95 +190.99 to +508.51 +226.44 to +772.28 +275.06 to +1001.15

Fall 52.4 +32.16 to +91.95 +46.92 to +176.07 +55.64 to +272.10 +82.86 to +354.20

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2598.8 +391.13 to +795.02 +558.65 to +1205.02 +629.66 to +1913.49 +716.77 to +2417.98

Winter 5.46 +0.51 to +14.97 +2.56 to +17.71 +5.30 to +31.64 +4.50 to +40.02

Spring 292.03 +81.36 to +158.42 +107.29 to +261.20 +121.94 to +391.11 +131.69 to +508.17

Summer 1788.7 +178.46 to +373.38 +236.50 to +574.17 +277.73 to +849.97 +332.65 to +1082.21

Fall 498.06 +97.94 to +287.36 +173.32 to +421.83 +158.69 to +641.84 +214.71 to +810.58


end of the century, the Parker basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.


expected to increase by 38-102% (191-509 degree-days) by mid-century, and by 55-201% (275 -











PARKER BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.8 +0.13 to +1.89 +0.47 to +2.74 +0.85 to +2.55 +0.87 to +3.22

Winter 2 -0.12 to +0.70 +0.20 to +1.17 +0.24 to +1.45 +0.29 to +1.77

Spring 1.83 -0.22 to +0.68 -0.08 to +0.88 +0.01 to +1.15 +0.07 to +1.13

Summer 1.57 -0.13 to +0.48 -0.16 to +0.64 -0.17 to +0.53 -0.16 to +0.52

Fall 2.41 -0.38 to +0.60 -0.12 to +0.70 -0.32 to +0.70 -0.30 to +0.81

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.99 +0.02 to +0.45 +0.02 to +0.48 +0.13 to +0.66 +0.10 to +0.85

Winter 0.12 -0.03 to +0.11 -0.01 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.16 -0.01 to +0.25

Spring 0.24 -0.04 to +0.17 -0.03 to +0.18 -0.05 to +0.29 +0.00 to +0.31

Summer 0.18 -0.05 to +0.11 -0.03 to +0.11 -0.05 to +0.08 -0.05 to +0.11

Fall 0.45 -0.09 to +0.29 -0.03 to +0.21 -0.03 to +0.23 -0.07 to +0.32

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.08 -0.01 to +0.14 -0.01 to +0.13 -0.03 to +0.13 -0.03 to +0.21

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02

Spring 0.00 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.10

Summer 0.02 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.02 -0.02 to +0.05

Fall 0.06 -0.04 to +0.10 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.03 to +0.09 -0.05 to +0.10


for the Parker basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





PARKER BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.4 -0.17 to +4.33 +0.20 to +5.63 +0.55 to +6.78 +0.81 to +7.55

Winter 11.48 -0.31 to +1.80 +0.16 to +2.50 +0.52 to +3.24 +0.45 to +3.94

Spring 11.64 -0.11 to +2.36 -0.06 to +2.22 +0.17 to +2.64 +0.18 to +2.67

Summer 10.07 -0.25 to +1.10 -0.68 to +1.64 -0.83 to +1.61 -1.46 to +1.57

Fall 12.26 -1.18 to +1.16 -1.17 to +1.44 -1.60 to +1.58 -1.45 to +1.45


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Parker basin.





The summer season projections for the Parker or basin could see a decrease of




The fall season projections for the Parker basin could see a decrease of 1.2 to an




Parker Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.49 -0.53 to +1.47 -0.58 to +2.45 -0.99 to +2.84 -0.43 to +2.76

Winter 12.02 -0.94 to +1.21 -0.75 to +1.47 -1.17 to +1.74 -0.88 to +1.61

Spring 11.44 -1.09 to +0.85 -1.17 to +1.58 -1.66 to +1.57 -1.34 to +1.45

Summer 12.84 -0.72 to +1.45 -0.61 to +1.91 -1.04 to +2.68 -0.88 to +2.34

Fall 12.02 -0.22 to +1.90 -0.15 to +2.86 -0.49 to +3.10 -0.14 to +2.94




o For all the temporal parameters, the Parker basin is expected to see a slight decrease to






QUINEBAUG BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN QUINEBAUG BASIN:

Brookfield, Brimfield, Charlton, Douglas, Dudley, East Brookfield, Holland, Monson,

Southbridge, Spencer, Sturbridge, Wales, Warren, Webster, and West Brookfield



QUINEBAUG BASIN

Quinebaug Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 46.86 +2.17 to +4.32 +2.98 to +6.37 +3.57 to +9.03 +3.92 to +11.07

Winter 25.4 +2.25 to +5.01 +2.92 to +7.55 +3.66 to +9.27 +4.19 to +10.66

Spring 45.02 +1.39 to +3.34 +2.30 to +5.65 +2.55 to +7.81 +3.02 to +9.57

Summer 67.46 +2.28 to +4.42 +3.05 to +7.07 +3.48 to +10.28 +4.02 to +12.59

Fall 49.17 +2.32 to +5.40 +4.10 to +6.90 +3.89 to +9.60 +4.34 to +11.73

Maximum Temperature

Annual 57.82 +2.05 to +4.14 +2.74 to +6.40 +3.23 to +9.10 +3.57 to +10.94

Winter 35.52 +1.76 to +4.58 +2.53 to +6.89 +3.04 to +8.47 +3.46 to +9.84

Spring 56.31 +1.26 to +3.33 +2.08 to +5.55 +2.48 to +7.90 +3.00 to +9.59

Summer 78.79 +2.07 to +4.51 +2.87 to +7.11 +3.37 to +10.50 +3.81 to +12.91

Fall 60.26 +2.39 to +5.15 +3.89 to +7.02 +3.71 to +9.81 +4.26 to +12.06

Minimum Temperature

Annual 35.9 +2.29 to +4.58 +3.30 to +6.59 +3.91 to +9.00 +4.28 to +11.08

Winter 15.29 +2.63 to +5.57 +3.33 to +8.12 +4.37 to +10.04 +4.76 to +11.59

Spring 33.72 +1.51 to +3.59 +2.50 to +6.02 +2.65 to +7.84 +3.11 to +9.45

Summer 56.13 +2.35 to +4.48 +3.22 to +7.13 +3.59 to +10.05 +4.24 to +12.33

Fall 38.08 +2.18 to +5.48 +3.97 to +6.80 +4.04 to +9.39 +4.40 to +11.63

The Quinebaug basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.8 °F to 12.9 °F (5-16% increase).




21st century.



o Fall mid-century of 4 °F to 6.8 °F (10-18% increase); end of century increase of 4.4°F to

11.6 °F (12-31% increase).

QUINEBAUG BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 3.28 +4.45 to +13.91 +7.24 to +26.64 +9.13 to +46.88 +10.86 to +65.64

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.2 +0.00 to +0.55 +0.04 to +0.98 +0.17 to +1.98 +0.13 to +3.21

Summer 2.87 +3.94 to +12.15 +6.28 to +23.39 +7.95 to +40.04 +9.81 to +53.84

Fall 0.21 +0.29 to +1.29 +0.47 to +2.97 +0.44 to +6.51 +0.75 to +8.81

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.14 +0.83 to +4.24 +1.38 to +10.23 +1.87 to +21.73 +2.75 to +35.64

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.03 to +0.11 -0.01 to +0.20 +0.00 to +0.55 +0.00 to +0.96

Summer 0.14 +0.84 to +3.78 +1.21 to +9.54 +1.72 to +19.77 +2.58 to +32.45

Fall 0.00 -0.01 to +0.30 +0.01 to +0.57 +0.04 to +1.48 +0.05 to +2.58

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.03 to +0.64 +0.07 to +2.12 +0.10 to +5.62 +0.07 to +12.37

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.22

Summer 0.00 +0.03 to +0.53 +0.05 to +2.08 +0.08 to +5.29 +0.07 to +11.75

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.09 +0.00 to +0.28 +0.00 to +0.52


century, the Quinebaug basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Quinebaug basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Quinebaug basin is expected to have 10 to 54 more days.

QUINEBAUG BASIN

Quinebaug Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 10.37 -3.17 to -5.85 -3.98 to -6.78 -4.53 to -7.56 -4.26 to -7.76

Winter 10.07 -3.14 to -5.54 -3.87 to -6.6 -4.30 to -7.3 -4.17 to -7.55

Spring 0.31 -0.01 to -0.41 -0.04 to -0.35 -0.05 to -0.44 -0.05 to -0.48

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.03 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 155.47 -9.93 to -26.23 -18.79 to -38.37 -21.14 to -53.74 -24.17 to -65.02

Winter 85.06 -1.35 to -5.91 -2.35 to -8.55 -3.15 to -16.33 -4.08 to -20.71

Spring 40.44 -2.75 to -10 -5.79 to -15.74 -6.94 to -20.49 -8.23 to -21.80

Summer 0.00 -0.11 to -0.00 -0.17 to -0.00 -0.15 to -0.00 -0.15 to -0.00

Fall 29.91 -5.34 to -12.65 -9.24 to -15.55 -9.36 to -19.52 -9.37 to -22.56


century, the Quinebaug basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

QUINEBAUG BASIN

Quinebaug Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7051.66 -562.90 to -1196.41 -801.48 to -1701.05 -931.07 to -2249.59 -1072.20 to -2634.36

Winter 3586.92 -192.09 to -465.90 -258.66 to -691.11 -324.18 to -840.67 -383.55 to -979.67

Spring 1853.55 -115.56 to -290.38 -196.45 to -483.98 -218.21 to -640.25 -271.00 to -757.64

Summer 136.76 -46.44 to -82.21 -68.51 to -104.81 -72.24 to -119.66 -80.43 to -126.42

Fall 1473 -178.24 to -416.19 -317.05 to -500.02 -295.25 to -683.24 -314.25 to -781.69

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 416.64 +209.27 to +410.82 +278.31 to +714.53 +324.21 to +1097.31 +370.70 to +1442.42


Spring 15.7 +6.03 to +23.19 +12.32 to +46.61 +16.57 to +77.56 +16.2 to +109.43

Summer 363.25 +157.61 to +328.19 +202.47 to +546.17 +239.20 to +828.87 +279.91 to +1037.18

Fall 32.16 +26.92 to +77.46 +42.18 to +127.45 +51.11 to +215.86 +70.84 to +295.77

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2266.47 +410.24 to +783.29 +561.94 to +1258.10 +657.10 to +1909.03 +734.53 to +2395.67

Winter 4.81 -0.80 to +9.27 +0.11 to +11.03 +0.62 to +15.39 +0.86 to +21.95

Spring 256.07 +52.35 to +125.44 +76.61 to +227.32 +91.53 to +350.81 +94.95 to +449.17

Summer 1607.1 +209.34 to +406.29 +278.77 to +649.48 +318.87 to +944.85 +367.79 to +1157.81

Fall 387.92 +118.38 to +296.63 +190.13 to +407.55 +183.10 to +596.82 +234.32 to +752.47


end of the century, the Quinebaug basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.












60-194% (234.32-752.47 degree-days) by end of century.

QUINEBAUG BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.85 -0.04 to +2.19 +0.58 to +3.43 +0.76 to +3.17 +0.75 to +4.39

Winter 1.61 -0.08 to +0.77 -0.06 to +1.25 +0.11 to +1.74 +0.31 to +2.05

Spring 1.72 -0.15 to +0.70 -0.10 to +0.82 -0.02 to +1.15 +0.12 to +1.56

Summer 1.79 -0.23 to +0.85 -0.11 to +1.06 -0.23 to +1.05 -0.38 to +0.98

Fall 2.69 -0.47 to +0.74 -0.47 to +0.92 -0.46 to +0.92 -0.72 to +1.05

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.79 -0.02 to +0.41 -0.03 to +0.53 +0.06 to +0.56 +0.09 to +0.71

Winter 0.04 -0.04 to +0.09 -0.04 to +0.09 -0.06 to +0.12 -0.06 to +0.14

Spring 0.18 -0.05 to +0.11 -0.03 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.19 -0.01 to +0.26

Summer 0.32 -0.12 to +0.23 -0.07 to +0.20 -0.08 to +0.19 -0.09 to +0.25

Fall 0.25 -0.07 to +0.26 -0.08 to +0.33 -0.04 to +0.26 -0.09 to +0.34

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.00 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.04 to +0.08 -0.03 to +0.10

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.05

Fall 0.00 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.00 to +0.06


for the Quinebaug basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.


inch of 0-1 days by mid-century, and an increase of 0-2 days by the end of century.



QUINEBAUG BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 48.56 +0.03 to +4.98 +1.19 to +6.55 +1.96 to +7.74 +1.74 to +8.90

Winter 11.54 -0.52 to +2.11 +0.05 to +2.95 +0.17 to +3.50 +0.52 to +4.40

Spring 12.19 -0.23 to +2.14 +0.11 to +1.91 +0.32 to +2.66 +0.22 to +2.86

Summer 11.82 -0.13 to +1.70 -0.30 to +2.18 -0.65 to +2.65 -1.39 to +2.67

Fall 13 -1.34 to +1.50 -1.59 to +2.04 -1.76 to +1.99 -1.99 to +1.78


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Quinebaug basin.





The summer season projections for the Quinebaug or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Quinebaug basin could see a decrease of 1.6


and a decrease of 2 to an increase of 1.8 inches by the end of the century


Quinebaug Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.11 -0.76 to +1.25 -0.88 to +1.91 -1.38 to +1.92 -0.64 to +2.53

Winter 10.96 -1.19 to +1.38 -1.03 to +1.28 -1.07 to +1.14 -1.00 to +1.59

Spring 10.76 -1.35 to +0.66 -1.22 to +0.89 -1.55 to +1.00 -1.18 to +1.00

Summer 11.76 -0.90 to +1.62 -0.93 to +2.00 -1.23 to +2.18 -1.39 to +2.53

Fall 12.09 -0.32 to +1.79 -0.66 to +2.59 -0.79 to +2.74 -0.25 to +2.89




o For all the temporal parameters, the Quinebaug basin is expected to see a slight






SHAWSHEEN BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN SHAWSHEEN BASIN:

Andover, Bedford, Billerica, Burlington, Concord, Lawrence, Lexington, Lincoln, North Andover,

Tewksbury, Wilmington, and Woburn



SHASHEEN BASIN

Shawsheen Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 48.85 +2.27 to +4.43 +2.94 to +6.36 +3.49 to +9.14 +3.80 to +11.03

Winter 28.07 +2.36 to +5.04 +3.02 to +7.52 +3.77 to +9.36 +4.06 to +10.81

Spring 46.8 +1.85 to +3.59 +2.62 to +5.48 +2.76 to +7.90 +3.40 to +9.69

Summer 69.15 +2.16 to +4.39 +2.82 to +6.68 +3.23 to +9.84 +3.80 to +12.26

Fall 51 +2.28 to +4.99 +3.68 to +6.79 +3.47 to +9.69 +3.95 to +12.08

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.46 +2.13 to +4.15 +2.73 to +6.22 +3.21 to +9.15 +3.46 to +10.95

Winter 37.65 +2.03 to +4.58 +2.64 to +7.02 +3.19 to +8.66 +3.59 to +10.04

Spring 57.78 +1.69 to +3.49 +2.32 to +5.56 +2.70 to +8.13 +3.26 to +9.64

Summer 80.26 +2.02 to +4.45 +2.74 to +6.61 +3.13 to +10.04 +3.60 to +12.44

Fall 61.73 +2.40 to +4.87 +3.44 to +6.95 +3.37 to +9.99 +3.86 to +12.40

Minimum Temperature

Annual 38.25 +2.36 to +4.76 +3.20 to +6.49 +3.80 to +9.09 +4.15 to +11.10

Winter 18.49 +2.64 to +5.50 +3.40 to +8.02 +4.37 to +10.05 +4.51 to +11.58

Spring 35.81 +1.99 to +3.92 +2.86 to +5.79 +2.94 to +7.66 +3.53 to +9.55

Summer 58.05 +2.30 to +4.42 +2.97 to +7.08 +3.32 to +9.63 +3.97 to +12.08

Fall 40.28 +2.17 to +5.15 +3.56 to +6.70 +3.56 to +9.62 +4.06 to +11.80

The Shawsheen basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.6 °F to 12.4 °F (4-15% increase).

o Fall mid-century increase of 3.4 °F to 7 °F (6-11% increase); end of century increase by



21st century.




11.8 °F (10-29% increase).

SHAWSHEEN BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 6.86 +7.12 to +19.09 +9.97 to +32.49 +11.78 to +54.36 +14.06 to +71.94

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.46 +0.19 to +0.80 +0.37 to +1.67 +0.44 to +2.83 +0.31 to +4.68

Summer 6.09 +6.10 to +16.64 +8.27 to +27.05 +10.16 to +43.63 +12.29 to +56.36

Fall 0.31 +0.51 to +2.48 +0.87 to +5.25 +0.85 to +9.31 +1.35 to +12.70

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.44 +2.21 to +7.69 +2.81 to +14.87 +3.96 to +29.90 +5.67 to +45.80

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.04 to +0.25 +0.03 to +0.42 +0.10 to +0.88 +0.07 to +1.85

Summer 0.44 +1.93 to +7.09 +2.42 to +13.33 +3.43 to +26.26 +5.15 to +39.40

Fall 0.00 +0.09 to +0.77 +0.15 to +1.85 +0.18 to +4.18 +0.42 to +5.83

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.03 +0.27 to +1.85 +0.34 to +4.38 +0.57 to +9.66 +0.68 to +18.80

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.52

Summer 0.03 +0.25 to +1.74 +0.27 to +4.15 +0.55 to +9.00 +0.64 to +17.12

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.12 +0.00 to +0.37 +0.00 to +0.93 +0.01 to +1.43


century, the Shawsheen basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Shawsheen basin is expected to see days with daily maximum

temperatures over 90 °F increase by 10to 32 more days by mid-century, and 14 to 72




o By end of century, the Shawsheen basin is expected to have 12 to 56 more days.

SHAWSHEEN BASIN

Shawsheen Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 5.13 -1.42 to -3.32 -1.68 to -3.72 -1.90 to -3.97 -1.93 to -4.07

Winter 5.05 -1.35 to -3.03 -1.67 to -3.54 -1.88 to -3.83 -1.91 to -3.92

Spring 0.05 -0.26 to +0.02 -0.01 to -0.28 -0.01 to -0.33 -0.01 to -0.29

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.03 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 139.15 -12.22 to -30.06 -18.88 to -42.27 -22.01 to -56.63 -25.03 to -67.51

Winter 81.49 -2.91 to -7.88 -3.86 to -13.86 -5.44 to -22.83 -6.91 to -29.08

Spring 33.69 -4.29 to -11.03 -7.17 to -15.08 -7.86 to -19.41 -8.86 to -20.97

Summer 0.00 -0.07 to -0.00 -0.07 to -0.00 -0.07 to -0.00 -0.06 to -0.00

Fall 23.93 -5.02 to -10.54 -7.89 to -13.62 -8.10 to -17.02 -7.46 to -18.84


century, the Shawsheen basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

SHAWSHEEN BASIN

Shawsheen Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6457.27 -556.59 to -1157.37 -744.96 to -1578.96 -881.68 to -2104.05 -988.55 to -2493.48

Winter 3341.25 -205.49 to -468.50 -268.38 to -687.75 -334.19 to -850.20 -375.33 to -994.01

Spring 1696.91 -152.06 to -296.50 -214.82 to -450.18 -230.44 to -622.13 -297.82 to -732.12

Summer 96.04 -34.42 to -58.95 -43.83 to -75.20 -52.54 to -85.37 -54.50 to -88.05

Fall 1320.96 -157.39 to -362.74 -269.46 to -457.50 -256.40 to -646.06 -274.44 to -732.46

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 553.74 +221.45 to +463.80 +297.69 to +760.97 +354.17 to +1182.91 +408.70 to +1536.06


Spring 22.21 +14.12 to +33.56 +23.25 to +58.93 +25.76 to +101.49 +19.98 to +143.71

Summer 478.25 +165.00 to +346.62 +205.73 to +544.78 +237.90 to +825.47 +285.55 to +1042.92

Fall 46.51 +34.32 to +99.41 +52.73 to +178.08 +60.58 to +273.71 +86.88 to +353.61

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2547.15 +425.51 to +829.02 +579.35 to +1257.57 +659.53 to +1979.30 +740.10 to +2479.76

Winter 5.61 -0.03 to +13.65 +2.12 to +18.15 +5.46 to +29.22 +4.87 to +38.12

Spring 299.4 +75.52 to +153.54 +101.19 to +257.20 +117.99 to +388.21 +130.73 to +507.39

Summer 1762.28 +198.83 to +403.50 +258.88 to +614.39 +296.18 to +904.61 +348.82 to +1127.82

Fall 470.48 +114.48 to +302.52 +188.90 to +433.24 +176.93 to +651.82 +229.10 to +816.40


end of the century, the Shawsheen basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.





century.



century.













SHAWSHEEN BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.4 +0.15 to +2.14 +0.55 to +3.00 +1.07 to +2.99 +1.12 to +3.98

Winter 2.13 -0.17 to +0.79 +0.07 to +1.15 +0.14 to +1.45 +0.30 to +1.87

Spring 1.93 -0.11 to +0.74 +0.06 to +1.13 +0.17 to +1.26 +0.11 to +1.42

Summer 1.75 -0.14 to +0.57 -0.08 to +0.75 +0.00 to +0.77 -0.16 to +0.65

Fall 2.59 -0.31 to +0.65 -0.15 to +0.89 -0.33 to +0.80 -0.35 to +0.96

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1.08 -0.06 to +0.64 +0.03 to +0.71 +0.09 to +0.77 +0.15 to +0.96

Winter 0.13 -0.03 to +0.13 -0.05 to +0.19 -0.04 to +0.25 -0.01 to +0.28

Spring 0.18 -0.07 to +0.20 -0.01 to +0.33 -0.05 to +0.31 +0.01 to +0.40

Summer 0.37 -0.12 to +0.19 -0.04 to +0.26 -0.05 to +0.23 -0.08 to +0.23

Fall 0.4 -0.09 to +0.38 -0.05 to +0.32 -0.01 to +0.31 -0.07 to +0.38

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.11 -0.04 to +0.12 -0.01 to +0.12 -0.04 to +0.13 -0.05 to +0.21

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Spring 0.00 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.09

Summer 0.06 -0.04 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.02 to +0.06 -0.04 to +0.11

Fall 0.05 -0.04 to +0.11 -0.03 to +0.09 -0.03 to +0.08 -0.06 to +0.11


for the Shawsheen basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.




of 0-1 days by mid-century, and of an increase of 0- days by the end of century.

SHAWSHEEN BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.01 +0.31 to +4.84 +0.23 to +6.51 +1.15 to +7.90 +1.20 to +8.27

Winter 11.15 -0.57 to +1.89 +0.04 to +2.31 +0.25 to +2.90 +0.19 to +4.04

Spring 11.42 -0.15 to +2.46 +0.08 to +2.19 +0.18 to +2.85 +0.31 to +2.78

Summer 10.48 -0.14 to +1.44 -0.48 to +2.13 -0.49 to +2.70 -1.29 to +2.36

Fall 11.99 -1.11 to +1.30 -1.17 to +1.67 -1.88 to +1.54 -1.56 to +1.29


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Shawsheen basin.





The summer season projections for the Shawsheen or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Shawsheen basin could see a decrease of 1.2

to an increase of 1.7 inches by mid-century (decrease of 10% to increase of 14%)



Shawsheen Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.1 -0.66 to +1.99 -0.57 to +2.30 -0.48 to +2.79 -0.26 to +2.93

Winter 11.77 -0.61 to +1.61 -0.45 to +1.30 -0.77 to +2.20 -0.79 to +1.89

Spring 11.06 -1.15 to +0.89 -1.24 to +1.14 -1.31 to +0.93 -1.12 to +0.82

Summer 13.19 -0.99 to +1.45 -0.91 to +2.09 -1.05 to +2.77 -1.16 to +2.21

Fall 12.43 -0.12 to +2.04 +0.04 to +2.92 -0.34 to +3.85 -0.12 to +4.00




o For all the temporal parameters, the Shawsheen basin is expected to see a slight






SUDBURY-ASSABET-CONCORD (SuAsCo) BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN SuAsCo BASIN:

Acton, Ashland, Bedford, Berlin, Billerica, Bolton, Boxborough, Boylston, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Clinton, Concord, Framingham, Grafton, Harvard, Holliston, Hopkinton, Hudson, Lincoln, Littleton, Lowell, Marlborough, Maynard, Natick, Northborough, Sherborn, Shrewsbury, Southborough, Stow, Sudbury, Tewksbury, Upton, Wayland, Westborough, Westford, and Weston

Many municipalities fall within more than one basin, so it is advised to use the climate projections for the basin that contains the majority of the land area of the municipality.

SuAsCo BASIN

SuAsCo Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 48.73 +2.18 to +4.37 +2.88 to +6.32 +3.47 to +9.03 +3.76 to +10.94

Winter 27.35 +2.23 to +4.90 +2.83 to +7.25 +3.57 to +8.89 +4.01 to +10.23

Spring 46.84 +1.67 to +3.46 +2.49 to +5.67 +2.66 to +7.92 +3.23 to +9.63

Summer 69.51 +2.09 to +4.40 +2.74 to +6.91 +3.20 to +10.16 +3.73 to +12.69

Fall 50.81 +2.21 to +5.02 +3.66 to +6.59 +3.47 to +9.49 +3.97 to +11.74

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.59 +2.02 to +4.11 +2.66 to +6.28 +3.16 to +9.08 +3.42 to +10.87

Winter 37.25 +1.85 to +4.42 +2.46 to +6.73 +2.97 to +8.13 +3.37 to +9.36

Spring 57.9 +1.58 to +3.43 +2.26 to +5.59 +2.59 to +8.04 +3.17 to +9.71

Summer 80.73 +1.90 to +4.46 +2.62 to +7.06 +3.10 to +10.46 +3.57 to +12.97

Fall 62.05 +2.37 to +4.79 +3.56 to +6.83 +3.32 to +9.62 +3.81 to +12.13

Minimum Temperature

Annual 37.86 +2.27 to +4.64 +3.13 to +6.41 +3.77 to +8.96 +4.10 to +11.01

Winter 17.45 +2.49 to +5.47 +3.25 to +7.76 +4.12 to +9.62 +4.55 to +10.91

Spring 35.79 +1.76 to +3.71 +2.66 to +6.02 +2.81 to +7.74 +3.29 to +9.51

Summer 58.28 +2.11 to +4.49 +2.86 to +7.18 +3.30 to +9.86 +3.91 to +12.40

Fall 39.56 +2.11 to +5.16 +3.60 to +6.56 +3.62 to +9.26 +4.14 to +11.62

The SuAsCo basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.6 °F to 13 °F (4-16% increase).




21st century.




11.6 °F (10-29% increase).

SuAsCo BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 8.07 +7.24 to +20.03 +10.13 to +35.14 +12.20 to +56.37 +14.48 to +76.25

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.5 +0.05 to +0.77 +0.28 to +1.74 +0.35 to +2.97 +0.23 to +5.00

Summer 7.21 +6.54 to +17.38 +8.50 to +29.80 +10.77 to +45.90 +12.66 to +59.87

Fall 0.36 +0.42 to +2.15 +0.79 to +4.79 +0.58 to +8.98 +1.10 to +12.13

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.75 +2.02 to +8.21 +3.06 to +16.75 +3.91 to +31.59 +5.51 to +48.44

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.03 +0.03 to +0.24 +0.02 to +0.47 +0.05 to +1.08 +0.06 to +1.95

Summer 0.71 +1.86 to +7.70 +2.75 to +15.30 +3.44 to +28.30 +5.16 to +42.21

Fall 0.01 +0.07 to +0.61 +0.09 to +1.24 +0.14 to +3.25 +0.24 to +4.72

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.02 +0.20 to +2.03 +0.32 to +4.87 +0.58 to +11.71 +0.60 to +21.91

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.20 +0.00 to +0.45

Summer 0.02 +0.21 to +1.91 +0.29 to +4.70 +0.52 to +10.99 +0.60 to +20.34

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.08 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.55 +0.00 to +1.01


century, the SuAsCo basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the SuAsCo basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures

over 90 °F increase by 10 to 35 more days by mid-century, and 14 to 76 more days by




o By end of century, the SuAsCo basin is expected to have 13 to 60 more days.

SuAsCo BASIN

SuAsCo Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 5.96 -1.61 to -3.54 -2.03 to -4.25 -2.23 to -4.57 -2.25 to -4.73

Winter 5.93 -1.63 to -3.34 -2.00 to -4.05 -2.22 to -4.42 -2.23 to -4.57

Spring 0.03 -0.26 to +0.03 -0.01 to -0.27 -0.01 to -0.32 -0.01 to -0.29

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 143.36 -11.90 to -27.94 -19.26 to -39.80 -22.36 to -55.02 -24.35 to -64.94

Winter 83.01 -2.19 to -6.66 -3.27 to -11.19 -4.93 to -19.68 -5.77 to -24.53

Spring 33.93 -3.32 to -11.44 -6.76 to -14.98 -8.06 to -19.33 -8.67 to -20.34

Summer 0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.05 to -0.00 -0.05 to -0.00

Fall 26.38 -5.23 to -11.1 -8.40 to -13.61 -8.58 to -17.66 -8.19 to -19.77


century, the SuAsCo basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

SuAsCo BASIN

SuAsCo Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6534.66 -543.72 to -1137.18 -749.60 to -1586.93 -872.65 to -2093.75 -983.52 to -2459.88

Winter 3406.17 -193.54 to -454.48 -250.62 to -669.31 -316.34 to -807.48 -368.77 to -941.56

Spring 1694.75 -136.54 to -293.20 -206.58 to -473.07 -225.41 to -619.25 -284.35 to -726.21

Summer 90.35 -29.17 to -55.74 -40.30 to -72.21 -47.07 to -80.96 -48.42 to -83.98

Fall 1340.41 -166.26 to -374.01 -279.18 to -460.66 -262.08 to -639.19 -276.44 to -731.23

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 585.03 +216.39 to +456.32 +284.68 to +771.17 +342.54 to +1196.87 +397.57 to +1581.57

Winter nan -0.64 to +2.13 +0.04 to +2.24 +0.81 to +3.49 +1.52 to +3.80

Spring 25.38 +12.29 to +31.14 +20.23 to +61.91 +23.71 to +105.36 +22.14 to +143.39

Summer 505.04 +158.00 to +349.52 +197.02 to +569.20 +238.23 to +859.80 +281.63 to +1086.27

Fall 49.33 +29.98 to +95.36 +43.76 to +159.37 +51.78 to +253.82 +77.28 to +341.21

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2592.31 +407.83 to +821.76 +546.41 to +1274.32 +642.32 to +1976.40 +729.06 to +2475.28

Winter 6.27 -0.58 to +10.51 +0.41 to +14.62 +4.00 to +22.78 +3.32 to +28.60

Spring 314.11 +66.08 to +145.31 +91.86 to +251.45 +108.38 to +398.05 +120.48 to +500.08

Summer 1794.81 +192.32 to +404.30 +251.12 to +635.57 +293.25 to +934.43 +342.08 to +1166.70

Fall 469.32 +113.10 to +302.42 +180.27 to +412.20 +170.27 to +621.20 +217.49 to +791.63


end of the century, the SuAsCo basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













SuAsCo BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 6.84 +0.23 to +1.99 +0.64 to +3.35 +1.29 to +2.88 +1.15 to +4.16

Winter 1.55 -0.08 to +0.85 +0.19 to +1.18 +0.30 to +1.53 +0.40 to +1.83

Spring 1.49 -0.08 to +0.72 -0.03 to +0.95 +0.11 to +1.17 +0.13 to +1.33

Summer 1.59 -0.13 to +0.56 -0.02 to +0.92 -0.10 to +0.79 -0.20 to +0.71

Fall 2.22 -0.25 to +0.76 -0.13 to +0.96 -0.27 to +0.78 -0.38 to +0.96

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.61 -0.05 to +0.41 +0.07 to +0.52 +0.04 to +0.49 +0.09 to +0.64

Winter 0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.08 -0.01 to +0.09 -0.01 to +0.13

Spring 0.04 -0.02 to +0.12 +0.01 to +0.15 -0.02 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.29

Summer 0.27 -0.08 to +0.15 -0.03 to +0.22 -0.08 to +0.17 -0.06 to +0.22

Fall 0.25 -0.09 to +0.27 -0.07 to +0.26 -0.04 to +0.21 -0.10 to +0.24

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.04 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.04 to +0.07 -0.04 to +0.15

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Summer 0.01 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.06

Fall 0.02 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.09


for the SuAsCo basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.




of -0-1 days by mid-century, and of an increase of 0-1 days by the end of century.

SuAsCo BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 45.44 +0.16 to +4.84 +0.56 to +6.06 +1.53 to +7.79 +1.23 to +8.01

Winter 11.15 -0.38 to +2.08 +0.07 to +2.56 +0.45 to +3.20 +0.38 to +4.05

Spring 11.57 -0.14 to +2.36 +0.02 to +2.08 +0.28 to +2.58 +0.22 to +2.55

Summer 10.76 -0.18 to +1.53 -0.47 to +2.20 -0.64 to +2.40 -1.13 to +2.15

Fall 11.97 -1.19 to +1.08 -1.27 to +1.70 -1.78 to +1.57 -1.54 to +1.35


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the SuAsCo basin.





The summer season projections for the SuAsCo or basin could see a decrease of

0.5 to an increase of 2.2 inches by mid-century (decrease of 4 to increase of



The fall season projections for the SuAsCo basin could see a decrease of 1.3 to

an increase of 1.7 inches by mid-century (decrease of 11% to increase of 14%)



SuAsCo Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.83 -0.55 to +1.41 -0.40 to +1.98 -0.88 to +2.26 -0.72 to +2.5

Winter 11.64 -0.90 to +1.21 -0.74 to +1.39 -1.05 to +1.70 -1.13 to +1.70

Spring 11.04 -1.16 to +0.81 -1.20 to +0.96 -1.46 to +1.09 -1.17 to +0.83

Summer 12.34 -0.81 to +1.60 -0.74 to +2.42 -1.26 to +2.73 -0.99 to +2.06

Fall 12.22 -0.01 to +1.94 -0.19 to +2.65 -0.27 to +3.05 -0.03 to +3.13




o For all the temporal parameters, the SuAsCo basin is expected to see a slight decrease




The fall season is expected to an increase of 0-3 days in consecutive dry days by


SOUTH COASTAL BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN SOUTH COASTAL BASIN:

Abington, Bourne, Cohasset, Duxbury, Halifax, Hanover, Hanson, Hingham, Kingston,

Marshfield, Norwell, Pembroke, Plymouth, Plympton, Rockland, Sandwich, Scituate,

Weymouth, and Whitman



SOUTH COASTAL

South Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.72 +1.88 to +3.66 +2.57 to +5.78 +2.90 to +8.50 +3.16 to +10.33

Winter 30.29 +1.92 to +4.05 +2.56 to +6.25 +3.17 to +8.31 +3.48 to +9.77

Spring 46.72 +1.81 to +3.47 +2.40 to +5.55 +2.65 to +7.78 +3.15 to +9.48

Summer 69.12 +1.47 to +3.67 +2.02 to +6.08 +2.56 to +9.19 +3.16 to +11.43

Fall 52.39 +1.95 to +4.23 +3.28 to +6.18 +3.03 to +8.83 +3.56 to +10.92

Maximum Temperature

Annual 59.47 +1.78 to +3.57 +2.37 to +5.67 +2.60 to +8.49 +2.92 to +10.18

Winter 62.22 +1.90 to +4.26 +3.10 to +6.26 +2.93 to +8.81 +3.29 to +11.04

Spring 56.69 +1.69 to +3.42 +2.10 to +5.36 +2.59 to +7.92 +3.04 to +9.40

Summer 79.1 +1.39 to +3.53 +1.94 to +5.99 +2.46 to +9.25 +2.92 to +11.39

Fall 62.22 +1.90 to +4.26 +3.10 to +6.26 +2.93 to +8.81 +3.29 to +11.04

Minimum Temperature

Annual 39.97 +2.01 to +3.76 +2.78 to +5.91 +3.20 to +8.50 +3.46 to +10.46

Winter 21.05 +2.18 to +4.37 +2.98 to +6.73 +3.69 to +8.95 +3.99 to +10.51

Spring 36.76 +1.81 to +3.56 +2.68 to +5.83 +2.72 to +7.64 +3.27 to +9.41

Summer 59.14 +1.61 to +3.75 +2.15 to +6.27 +2.67 to +9.10 +3.39 to +11.33

Fall 42.57 +2.01 to +4.47 +3.37 to +6.13 +3.16 to +8.81 +3.84 to +10.94

The South Coastal basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout






o Summer mid-century increase of 1.9 °F to 6 °F (2-8% increase); end of century increase

of 2.9 °F to 11.4 °F (4-14% increase).




21st century.




11.6 °F (9-26% increase).

SOUTH COASTAL BASIN

South Coastal Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 5.43 +3.75 to +10.95 +5.03 to +23.10 +6.67 to +41.44 +8.63 to +57.61

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.26 +0.15 to +0.62 +0.25 to +0.94 +0.30 to +1.75 +0.28 to +2.86

Summer 4.99 +3.14 to +9.50 +4.18 to +19.99 +5.85 to +34.78 +7.70 to +47.28

Fall 0.19 +0.36 to +1.35 +0.50 to +3.16 +0.55 to +5.81 +0.68 to +8.01

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.72 +1.21 to +4.33 +1.39 to +8.61 +2.10 to +18.40 +3.09 to +30.54

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.17 +0.03 to +0.31 +0.05 to +0.55 +0.07 to +1.02

Summer 0.72 +1.00 to +3.90 +1.28 to +7.89 +1.91 to +16.43 +2.64 to +27.24

Fall 0.00 +0.02 to +0.42 +0.06 to +0.78 +0.08 to +1.94 +0.14 to +2.72

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.02 +0.18 to +0.90 +0.23 to +2.50 +0.27 to +5.21 +0.33 to +9.83

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.12 +0.00 to +0.21

Summer 0.02 +0.17 to +0.87 +0.22 to +2.40 +0.26 to +4.85 +0.33 to +9.09

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.33 +0.00 to +0.55


century, the South Coastal basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the South Coastal basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the South Coastal basin is expected to have 8 to 47 more days.

SOUTH COASTAL BASIN

South Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 2.42 -0.47 to -1.17 -0.59 to -1.43 -0.77 to -1.39 -0.72 to -1.46

Winter 2.42 -0.49 to -1.14 -0.57 to -1.4 -0.79 to -1.38 -0.70 to -1.42

Spring 0.00 -0.05 to +0.01 -0.05 to -0.00 -0.04 to -0.00 -0.05 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 125.34 -12.59 to -26.93 -17.33 to -42.08 -21.49 to -54.87 -21.70 to -66.37

Winter 77.24 -4.01 to -8.95 -4.63 to -15.92 -7.03 to -25.11 -7.92 to -33.38

Spring 30.01 -4.15 to -11.02 -6.85 to -14.71 -7.60 to -18.77 -8.87 to -20.07

Summer 0.00 -0.09 to -0.00 -0.10 to -0.00 -0.10 to -0.00 -0.11 to -0.00

Fall 18.05 -4.37 to -8.29 -6.05 to -10.41 -6.80 to -13.26 -6.84 to -15.01


century, the South Coastal basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

SOUTH COASTAL BASIN

South Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6147.06 -492.18 to -968.19 -681.79 to -1437.60 -791.76 to -1940.25 -856.64 to -2311.04

Winter 3145.99 -173.57 to -373.69 -222.91 to -570.81 -286.48 to -753.46 -316.43 to -891.25

Spring 1697.4 -151.05 to -293.67 -200.64 to -463.06 -226.39 to -632.69 -282.89 to -741.09

Summer 94.05 -29.43 to -54.35 -40.47 to -69.22 -42.26 to -79.75 -49.93 to -84.71

Fall 1200.7 -136.28 to -306.03 -242.08 to -408.03 -226.51 to -583.94 -249.28 to -665.98

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 542.74 +180.49 to +378.82 +238.71 to +673.74 +282.82 to +1080.21 +334.42 to +1400.01

Winter nan -1.30 to +2.58 -1.66 to +7.12 -0.56 to +3.19 -0.95 to +6.52

Spring 16.54 +12.56 to +27.30 +16.39 to +51.27 +19.31 to +82.64 +18.83 to +116.36

Summer 473.13 +107.21 to +286.86 +145.58 to +492.86 +190.80 to +765.21 +237.41 to +968.91

Fall 51.86 +30.52 to +85.32 +49.65 to +159.78 +57.58 to +245.59 +81.77 to +323.55

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2558.52 +364.00 to +745.43 +482.58 to +1165.35 +545.34 to +1860.29 +631.09 to +2337.36

Winter 7.23 +0.64 to +14.27 +1.87 to +17.18 +5.88 to +32.28 +5.91 to +45.53

Spring 270.02 +73.40 to +145.16 +91.89 to +245.67 +102.48 to +375.66 +107.50 to +486.58

Summer 1759.16 +135.39 to +337.37 +185.57 to +558.43 +235.15 to +845.03 +289.60 to +1051.34

Fall 521.74 +98.97 to +265.94 +177.94 to +404.85 +171.26 to +606.24 +221.91 to +760.06


end of the century, the South Coastal basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.





century.



century.













SOUTH COASTAL BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.65 +0.18 to +2.09 +0.56 to +2.56 +0.86 to +2.94 +1.01 to +3.55

Winter 2.14 -0.06 to +0.79 +0.19 to +0.94 +0.14 to +1.37 +0.26 to +1.62

Spring 2.04 -0.04 to +0.72 +0.02 to +0.96 +0.26 to +1.05 +0.20 to +1.21

Summer 1.76 -0.17 to +0.51 +0.01 to +0.58 -0.18 to +0.54 -0.34 to +0.61

Fall 2.7 -0.37 to +0.66 -0.21 to +0.94 -0.39 to +0.84 -0.49 to +1.04

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1.06 -0.02 to +0.54 +0.12 to +0.68 +0.18 to +0.71 +0.23 to +0.97

Winter 0.28 -0.03 to +0.17 -0.01 to +0.18 +0.00 to +0.21 -0.02 to +0.32

Spring 0.19 -0.07 to +0.22 +0.00 to +0.25 +0.02 to +0.30 +0.06 to +0.41

Summer 0.29 -0.10 to +0.16 -0.03 to +0.17 -0.11 to +0.16 -0.07 to +0.12

Fall 0.3 -0.02 to +0.26 +0.00 to +0.24 +0.01 to +0.29 -0.04 to +0.40

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.04 -0.01 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.09 -0.01 to +0.13

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.05

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.05

Fall 0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.07


for the South Coastal basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.

o The winter season is expected to see either an increase in days with precipitation over

one inch of 0-1 days by mid-century, and an increase of 0-2 days by the end of century.



SOUTH COASTAL BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.47 -0.21 to +3.88 +0.02 to +5.03 +0.32 to +6.18 -0.17 to +6.42

Winter 12.52 -0.30 to +1.46 +0.05 to +1.91 +0.10 to +2.80 +0.05 to +3.73

Spring 12.09 -0.10 to +1.80 -0.11 to +2.19 +0.11 to +2.37 +0.10 to +2.76

Summer 10.36 -0.74 to +1.18 -0.71 to +1.79 -1.54 to +2.42 -2.05 to +2.25

Fall 12.51 -0.92 to +1.13 -1.08 to +1.38 -1.72 to +1.70 -1.83 to +1.11


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the South Coastal basin.





The summer season projections for the South Coastal or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the South Coastal basin could see a decrease of




South Coastal Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.85 -0.63 to +1.63 -0.27 to +2.68 -0.66 to +3.43 -0.44 to +4.08

Winter 10.29 -0.45 to +1.70 -0.56 to +1.85 -0.60 to +1.86 -1.01 to +2.22

Spring 11.49 -0.95 to +0.74 -1.06 to +1.47 -1.08 to +1.42 -1.44 to +1.63

Summer 13.54 -1.28 to +1.70 -0.85 to +2.11 -0.77 to +3.19 -0.63 to +3.51

Fall 12.75 +0.03 to +2.52 +0.01 to +2.74 -0.10 to +3.07 -0.25 to +3.01




o For all the temporal parameters, the South Coastal basin is expected to see a slight






TAUNTON BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN TAUNTON BASIN:

Abington, Attleboro, Avon, Berkley, Bridgewater, Brockton, Carver, Dighton, East Bridgewater,

Easton, Fall River, Foxborough, Freetown, Halifax, Hanson, Holbrook, Kingston, Lakeville,

Mansfield, Middleborough, New Bedford, North Attleborough, Norton, Pembroke, Plainville,

Plymouth, Plympton, Raynham, Rehoboth, Rochester, Rockland, Sharon, Somerset, Stoughton,

Swansea, Taunton, West Bridgewater, Whitman, and Wrentham


TAUNTON BASIN

Taunton Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.85 +2.03 to +3.77 +2.68 to +5.94 +3.12 to +8.62 +3.43 to +10.49

Winter 30.01 +2.17 to +4.37 +2.88 to +6.74 +3.48 to +8.76 +3.91 to +10.07

Spring 47.34 +1.67 to +3.35 +2.35 to +5.44 +2.57 to +7.54 +3.05 to +9.16

Summer 69.57 +1.72 to +3.92 +2.22 to +6.31 +2.76 to +9.56 +3.39 to +11.62

Fall 52.14 +2.06 to +4.51 +3.42 to +6.31 +3.18 to +9.04 +3.70 to +11.18

Maximum Temperature

Annual 60.27 +1.90 to +3.71 +2.47 to +5.89 +2.82 to +8.62 +3.14 to +10.37

Winter 39.49 +1.83 to +4.23 +2.48 to +6.22 +3.02 to +8.13 +3.44 to +9.37

Spring 58 +1.48 to +3.35 +1.99 to +5.24 +2.52 to +7.62 +2.97 to +9.00

Summer 80.51 +1.63 to +3.84 +2.10 to +6.22 +2.65 to +9.68 +3.14 to +11.64

Fall 62.7 +2.07 to +4.39 +3.30 to +6.41 +3.10 to +8.95 +3.43 to +11.30

Minimum Temperature

Annual 39.44 +2.14 to +3.91 +2.89 to +6.08 +3.42 to +8.61 +3.76 to +10.56

Winter 20.53 +2.48 to +4.71 +3.24 to +7.25 +4.05 to +9.38 +4.41 to +10.75

Spring 36.67 +1.76 to +3.50 +2.70 to +5.74 +2.68 to +7.42 +3.17 to +9.12

Summer 58.62 +1.81 to +3.91 +2.35 to +6.48 +2.88 to +9.39 +3.64 to +11.48

Fall 41.58 +2.05 to +4.68 +3.46 to +6.26 +3.25 to +8.98 +3.97 to +11.11

The Taunton basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.1 °F to 11.6 °F (4-14% increase).




21st century.



o Fall mid-century of 3.5 °F to 6.3 °F (8-15% increase); end of century increase of 4 °F to

11.1 °F (10-27% increase).

TAUNTON BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.43 +5.38 to +14.58 +7.20 to +29.31 +9.27 to +49.91 +11.88 to +65.46

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.5 +0.08 to +0.59 +0.14 to +0.90 +0.22 to +1.66 +0.16 to +2.75

Summer 6.65 +4.60 to +12.68 +5.95 to +25.39 +8.16 to +41.97 +10.69 to +53.27

Fall 0.29 +0.48 to +1.74 +0.72 to +4.05 +0.77 to +7.20 +1.10 to +9.85

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 1.05 +1.45 to +4.80 +1.80 to +10.78 +2.66 to +24.73 +3.82 to +37.92

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.03 +0.00 to +0.18 +0.01 to +0.26 +0.04 to +0.47 +0.02 to +0.98

Summer 0.99 +1.40 to +4.39 +1.62 to +9.65 +2.49 to +22.30 +3.42 to +34.12

Fall 0.02 +0.02 to +0.51 +0.06 to +1.05 +0.14 to +2.56 +0.20 to +3.52

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.04 +0.16 to +0.91 +0.23 to +2.85 +0.38 to +6.38 +0.46 to +13.14

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.05 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.18

Summer 0.04 +0.14 to +0.86 +0.22 to +2.63 +0.35 to +5.95 +0.45 to +12.21

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.08 +0.01 to +0.18 +0.01 to +0.40 +0.01 to +0.86


century, the Taunton basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Taunton basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Taunton basin is expected to have 11 to 53 more days.

TAUNTON BASIN

Taunton Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 2.97 -0.67 to -1.57 -0.83 to -1.91 -0.99 to -1.96 -0.91 to -2.02

Winter 2.94 -0.64 to -1.52 -0.83 to -1.84 -0.98 to -1.9 -0.89 to -1.96

Spring 0.03 -0.05 to +0.01 -0.06 to -0.00 -0.07 to -0.00 -0.07 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 129.76 -13.27 to -27.89 -18.99 to -43.59 -23.07 to -57.04 -24.79 to -67.94

Winter 78.46 -4.10 to -9.05 -4.96 to -15.90 -7.23 to -24.69 -8.17 to -31.31

Spring 30.49 -3.99 to -10.99 -6.92 to -15.66 -7.62 to -19.25 -8.84 to -20.72

Summer 0.00 -0.11 to -0.00 -0.16 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.17 -0.00 to -0.19

Fall 20.81 -4.58 to -9.73 -7.61 to -12.10 -7.81 to -15.52 -7.62 to -17.16


century, the Taunton basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

TAUNTON BASIN

Taunton Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6129.97 -509.59 to -1000.68 -709.84 to -1478.68 -824.84 to -1957.15 -907.40 to -2325.08

Winter 3168.77 -199.51 to -403.47 -255.08 to -615.73 -313.95 to -793.76 -355.39 to -930.92

Spring 1643.71 -136.60 to -290.21 -197.75 to -457.98 -218.77 to -611.86 -274.56 to -716.78

Summer 84.57 -29.47 to -51.16 -38.36 to -66.24 -42.76 to -75.53 -47.92 to -81.98

Fall 1226.25 -141.08 to -320.09 -251.55 to -421.63 -229.03 to -596.23 -253.18 to -681.44

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 579.75 +202.68 to +410.96 +260.05 to +705.82 +302.62 to +1122.55 +364.92 to +1439.19

Winter nan -1.06 to +3.81 -0.05 to +5.73 -0.25 to +3.49 -0.49 to +6.46

Spring 19.54 +9.85 to +25.56 +15.65 to +49.01 +18.24 to +81.08 +17.48 to +107.55

Summer 504.68 +126.25 to +312.20 +164.21 to +517.51 +208.86 to +803.65 +258.53 to +992.98

Fall 55.2 +34.22 to +90.14 +51.79 to +163.12 +60.84 to +250.25 +89.23 to +328.03

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2622.13 +378.46 to +759.10 +505.77 to +1189.90 +575.59 to +1888.82 +664.73 to +2361.92

Winter 6.31 +0.88 to +15.65 +1.77 to +18.49 +6.74 to +32.88 +6.92 to +47.19

Spring 296.75 +66.62 to +132.13 +88.51 to +232.09 +95.78 to +361.40 +101.14 to +471.67

Summer 1800.14 +157.84 to +360.48 +204.28 to +580.35 +253.67 to +879.28 +311.39 to +1068.82

Fall 517.95 +103.90 to +272.03 +181.65 to +406.18 +172.90 to +604.10 +225.98 to +766.07


end of the century, the Taunton basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













TAUNTON BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.23 +0.41 to +1.97 +0.75 to +2.81 +0.91 to +2.97 +1.21 to +3.84

Winter 1.99 +0.09 to +0.76 +0.25 to +0.97 +0.19 to +1.29 +0.35 to +1.83

Spring 1.78 +0.01 to +0.68 +0.04 to +1.03 +0.28 to +1.23 +0.28 to +1.33

Summer 2.02 -0.19 to +0.43 -0.11 to +0.71 -0.09 to +0.56 -0.24 to +0.50

Fall 2.44 -0.25 to +0.65 -0.10 to +0.95 -0.29 to +0.94 -0.36 to +1.03

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.9 +0.00 to +0.49 +0.09 to +0.64 +0.08 to +0.74 +0.16 to +0.95

Winter 0.21 -0.04 to +0.14 +0.01 to +0.19 +0.01 to +0.20 +0.00 to +0.34

Spring 0.13 -0.05 to +0.13 +0.01 to +0.18 -0.01 to +0.23 +0.00 to +0.29

Summer 0.33 -0.09 to +0.17 -0.05 to +0.26 -0.05 to +0.17 -0.08 to +0.17

Fall 0.22 -0.01 to +0.27 +0.03 to +0.26 +0.03 to +0.30 -0.05 to +0.44

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.03 -0.01 to +0.05 +0.01 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.14

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.02

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01

Summer 0.02 -0.01 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.05 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.06

Fall 0.01 -0.01 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.04 -0.01 to +0.07


for the Taunton basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





TAUNTON BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.48 -0.05 to +4.11 +0.33 to +5.35 +0.90 to +6.61 +0.38 to +7.34

Winter 12.12 -0.28 to +1.52 +0.04 to +1.97 +0.20 to +2.69 +0.13 to +3.84

Spring 11.94 -0.11 to +1.84 +0.04 to +2.02 +0.07 to +2.41 +0.17 to +2.60

Summer 10.99 -0.59 to +1.12 -0.67 to +1.74 -1.69 to +2.35 -1.87 to +2.11

Fall 12.42 -0.80 to +1.13 -0.87 to +1.49 -1.49 to +1.74 -1.72 to +1.36


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Taunton basin.





The summer season projections for the Taunton or basin could see a decrease




The fall season projections for the Taunton basin could see a decrease of 0.9 to




Taunton Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.33 -0.23 to +1.29 -0.07 to +2.52 -0.90 to +2.80 -0.34 to +3.65

Winter 10.66 -0.70 to +1.67 -0.66 to +1.73 -0.61 to +1.95 -0.98 to +2.22

Spring 11.68 -0.75 to +0.62 -0.84 to +1.22 -0.96 to +1.14 -1.13 to +1.41

Summer 13.62 -0.94 to +1.22 -0.92 to +1.80 -1.14 to +2.49 -0.99 to +3.00

Fall 12.85 +0.15 to +2.27 +0.03 to +2.66 -0.25 to +2.72 -0.43 to +2.94




o For all the temporal parameters, the Taunton basin is expected to see a slight decrease






TEN MILE BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN TEN MILE BASIN:

Attleboro, Foxborough, Mansfield, North Attleborough, Plainville, Rehoboth, Seekonk, and

Wrentham


TEN MILE

Ten Mile Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 49.45 +2.08 to +3.81 +2.72 to +5.98 +3.23 to +8.66 +3.48 to +10.62

Winter 29.19 +2.07 to +4.33 +2.72 to +6.72 +3.35 to +8.70 +3.78 to +10.09

Spring 47.25 +1.65 to +3.36 +2.37 to +5.41 +2.51 to +7.70 +2.99 to +9.41

Summer 69.47 +1.87 to +4.02 +2.45 to +6.43 +2.98 to +9.67 +3.58 to +11.86

Fall 51.52 +2.11 to +4.72 +3.60 to +6.58 +3.38 to +9.34 +3.89 to +11.54

Maximum Temperature

Annual 60.28 +1.91 to +3.69 +2.50 to +5.93 +2.94 to +8.69 +3.14 to +10.50

Winter 38.94 +1.70 to +4.18 +2.28 to +6.17 +2.84 to +8.00 +3.20 to +9.24

Spring 58.38 +1.44 to +3.24 +2.01 to +5.31 +2.49 to +7.81 +2.92 to +9.09

Summer 80.87 +1.80 to +3.92 +2.32 to +6.33 +2.90 to +9.87 +3.37 to +11.98

Fall 62.54 +2.18 to +4.53 +3.38 to +6.65 +3.31 to +9.30 +3.70 to +11.74

Minimum Temperature

Annual 38.62 +2.20 to +4.06 +2.94 to +6.18 +3.53 to +8.63 +3.83 to +10.66

Winter 19.44 +2.37 to +4.71 +3.10 to +7.25 +3.95 to +9.34 +4.24 to +10.74

Spring 36.12 +1.74 to +3.47 +2.69 to +5.76 +2.65 to +7.53 +3.15 to +9.31

Summer 58.07 +1.97 to +4.00 +2.59 to +6.60 +3.06 to +9.48 +3.74 to +11.71

Fall 40.5 +2.04 to +4.88 +3.56 to +6.51 +3.44 to +9.20 +4.11 to +11.45

The Ten Mile basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.4 °F to 12 °F (4-15% increase).




21st century.




11.5 °F (10-28% increase).

TEN MILE BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 7.37 +6.50 to +16.15 +9.36 to +32.24 +11.43 to +54.37 +13.85 to +71.01

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.52 +0.07 to +0.62 +0.17 to +1.13 +0.25 to +2.07 +0.21 to +3.53

Summer 6.52 +5.47 to +13.81 +7.86 to +27.25 +9.90 to +44.37 +12.48 to +56.13

Fall 0.33 +0.48 to +2.29 +0.84 to +5.15 +0.99 to +8.72 +1.38 to +11.57

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 1.08 +1.81 to +5.58 +2.26 to +12.16 +3.08 to +27.97 +4.43 to +42.76

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.04 +0.00 to +0.24 +0.01 to +0.35 +0.05 to +0.55 +0.01 to +1.24

Summer 1.01 +1.67 to +5.00 +2.03 to +10.61 +2.85 to +24.96 +3.93 to +37.58

Fall 0.03 +0.02 to +0.72 +0.10 to +1.47 +0.18 to +3.33 +0.26 to +4.91

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.08 +0.17 to +0.89 +0.28 to +3.10 +0.42 to +7.39 +0.32 to +14.96

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.10 +0.00 to +0.26

Summer 0.08 +0.16 to +0.78 +0.25 to +2.95 +0.40 to +6.67 +0.35 to +13.44

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.12 +0.00 to +0.28 +0.01 to +0.67 +0.00 to +1.35


century, the Ten Mile basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Ten Mile basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Ten Mile basin is expected to have 12 to 56 more days.

TEN MILE BASIN

Ten Mile Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 4.18 -1.04 to -2.37 -1.18 to -2.95 -1.41 to -3.19 -1.35 to -3.36

Winter 4.12 -1.01 to -2.28 -1.11 to -2.81 -1.43 to -3.08 -1.32 to -3.25

Spring 0.06 -0.15 to +0.03 -0.17 to +0.03 -0.17 to 0.01 -0.17 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 136.35 -11.66 to -26.99 -18.24 to -41.83 -22.01 to -55.77 -23.61 to -67.64

Winter 80.43 -2.78 to -7.79 -3.86 to -13.60 -5.49 to -21.96 -7.02 to -28.18

Spring 32.51 -3.64 to -10.66 -6.67 to -15.53 -7.29 to -19.56 -8.20 to -20.77

Summer 0.00 -0.10 to -0.00 -0.17 to -0.00 -0.16 to -0.00 -0.19 to -0.00

Fall 23.41 -4.26 to -10.15 -7.87 to -13.00 -7.86 to -16.95 -8.32 to -18.74


century, the Ten Mile basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

TEN MILE BASIN

Ten Mile Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 6262.14 -505.57 to -1009.43 -693.80 to -1481.83 -813.04 to -1955.67 -899.76 to -2340.60

Winter 3242.52 -186.78 to -400.82 -238.05 to -615.18 -298.74 to -787.61 -346.28 to -927.07

Spring 1652.01 -133.89 to -285.26 -196.39 to -451.49 -211.26 to -613.37 -267.57 to -720.67

Summer 86.68 -31.67 to -52.56 -40.74 to -69.94 -47.29 to -78.89 -51.08 to -85.55

Fall 1277.14 -149.81 to -339.56 -259.60 to -432.22 -238.04 to -613.16 -260.95 to -699.15

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 571 +213.46 to +428.05 +278.26 to +734.24 +326.59 to +1150.77 +380.10 to +1481.03

Winter nan -0.55 to +4.39 +0.06 to +6.05 +0.52 to +4.44 +0.52 to +5.02

Spring 19.99 +11.12 to +27.88 +18.69 to +54.08 +23.14 to +90.70 +19.88 to +120.54

Summer 498.15 +139.44 to +320.57 +180.38 to +525.68 +223.86 to +812.43 +270.83 to +1012.51

Fall 50.42 +37.71 to +95.56 +56.57 to +172.67 +66.95 to +263.63 +97.38 to +341.13

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2592.9 +402.22 to +776.13 +538.71 to +1219.78 +610.02 to +1926.71 +691.99 to +2411.72

Winter 6.23 +0.25 to +15.29 +1.80 to +17.80 +5.97 to +28.74 +4.88 to +40.17

Spring 300.78 +71.48 to +140.41 +93.94 to +248.53 +99.88 to +380.86 +108.75 to +493.93

Summer 1791.52 +172.37 to +369.76 +225.43 to +591.51 +273.27 to +889.92 +329.23 to +1090.56

Fall 490 +108.81 to +290.02 +192.67 to +419.90 +184.08 to +619.28 +233.83 to +783.96


end of the century, the Ten Mile basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













TEN MILE BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 7.49 +0.35 to +1.89 +0.77 to +2.84 +0.97 to +3.15 +1.03 to +4.23

Winter 1.77 +0.12 to +0.96 +0.26 to +1.36 +0.37 to +1.61 +0.31 to +2.02

Spring 1.52 -0.10 to +0.68 +0.03 to +0.90 +0.02 to +1.06 +0.07 to +1.28

Summer 1.89 -0.20 to +0.56 -0.11 to +0.81 -0.06 to +0.79 -0.16 to +0.70

Fall 2.31 -0.28 to +0.70 -0.16 to +0.94 -0.30 to +0.82 -0.40 to +0.94

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.67 -0.05 to +0.45 +0.02 to +0.46 +0.01 to +0.49 +0.08 to +0.67

Winter 0.07 -0.05 to +0.10 -0.03 to +0.12 -0.03 to +0.18 -0.04 to +0.22

Spring 0.07 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.03 to +0.09 -0.02 to +0.16 -0.02 to +0.26

Summer 0.34 -0.07 to +0.23 -0.02 to +0.29 -0.05 to +0.22 -0.02 to +0.20

Fall 0.18 -0.13 to +0.26 -0.06 to +0.28 -0.12 to +0.23 -0.11 to +0.34

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.03 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.08 -0.02 to +0.13 -0.02 to +0.12

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.03 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.01 to +0.07 -0.03 to +0.07

Fall 0.00 -0.03 to +0.07 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.05


for the Ten Mile basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





TEN MILE BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 47.76 +0.03 to +4.69 +0.54 to +6.59 +1.33 to +7.25 +0.90 to +8.27

Winter 11.78 -0.47 to +1.72 +0.10 to +2.25 +0.26 to +2.88 +0.20 to +3.90

Spring 12.05 -0.08 to +1.87 -0.18 to +1.99 +0.14 to +2.37 +0.09 to +2.35

Summer 11.32 -0.40 to +1.53 -0.48 to +2.12 -1.08 to +2.71 -1.66 to +2.23

Fall 12.6 -1.05 to +1.26 -1.29 to +1.72 -1.47 to +1.64 -2.00 to +1.40


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Ten Mile basin.





The summer season projections for the Ten Mile or basin could see a decrease




The fall season projections for the Ten Mile basin could see a decrease of 1.3 to


and a decrease of 2 to an increase of 1.4 inches by the end of the century


Ten Mile Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.68 -0.19 to +1.50 +0.26 to +2.45 -0.80 to +2.71 -0.69 to +2.82

Winter 11.26 -0.61 to +1.30 -0.45 to +1.65 -0.94 to +1.72 -1.27 to +2.07

Spring 11.69 -1.26 to +0.63 -0.95 to +0.95 -1.07 to +1.15 -1.34 to +1.20

Summer 12.2 -0.45 to +1.64 -0.58 to +2.03 -0.73 to +2.57 -0.70 to +2.29

Fall 12.52 -0.22 to +2.05 -0.36 to +3.00 -0.57 to +3.01 -0.45 to +2.99




o For all the temporal parameters, the Ten Mile basin is expected to see a slight decrease






WESTFIELD BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN WESTFIELD BASIN:

Agawam, Ashfield, Becket, Blandford, Chester, Chesterfield, Cummington, Goshen, Granville,

Hawley, Holyoke, Huntington, Middlefield, Montgomery, Otis, Peru, Planfield, Russell, Savoy,

Southampton, Southwick, Tolland, Washington, West Springfield, Westfield, Westhampton,

Windsor, and Worthington


WESTFIELD BASIN

Westfield Basin Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 45.01 +2.27 to +4.55 +3.08 to +6.63 +3.64 to +9.18 +4.16 to +11.18

Winter 23.26 +2.47 to +5.51 +3.15 to +8.27 +4.14 to +9.86 +4.52 to +11.16

Spring 43.22 +1.76 to +3.57 +2.52 to +5.68 +3.11 to +7.70 +3.56 to +9.42

Summer 65.74 +2.28 to +4.48 +3.04 to +7.06 +3.48 to +10.15 +4.00 to +12.47

Fall 47.44 +2.31 to +5.29 +3.84 to +6.94 +3.80 to +9.86 +4.20 to +12.10

Maximum Temperature

Annual 55.82 +2.09 to +4.40 +2.80 to +6.73 +3.30 to +9.32 +3.81 to +11.25

Winter 32.88 +2.04 to +4.88 +2.77 to +7.43 +3.44 to +8.90 +3.79 to +10.01

Spring 54.38 +1.69 to +3.52 +2.40 to +5.58 +2.98 to +8.01 +3.56 to +9.65

Summer 77.31 +2.06 to +4.65 +2.78 to +7.33 +3.34 to +10.63 +3.87 to +13.00

Fall 58.28 +2.47 to +5.20 +3.62 to +7.30 +3.59 to +10.18 +4.20 to +12.47

Minimum Temperature

Annual 34.21 +2.38 to +4.83 +3.42 to +6.77 +4.05 to +9.04 +4.49 to +11.13

Winter 13.64 +2.71 to +6.20 +3.65 to +8.93 +4.82 to +10.78 +5.19 to +12.01

Spring 32.05 +1.87 to +3.78 +2.63 to +6.03 +3.32 to +7.57 +3.70 to +9.18

Summer 54.18 +2.45 to +4.58 +3.25 to +7.13 +3.62 to +9.78 +4.14 to +12.02

Fall 36.61 +2.04 to +5.30 +3.68 to +6.78 +3.93 to +9.54 +4.16 to +11.77

The Westfield basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.9 °F to 13.0 °F (5-17% increase).



Seasonally, minimum winter and fall temperature projections are expected to see increases





11.8 °F (11-32% increase).

WESTFIELD BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 2.75 +3.90 to +12.64 +5.70 to +24.05 +7.18 to +42.37 +8.76 to +59.56

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.12 +0.06 to +0.45 +0.18 to +1.01 +0.21 to +1.97 +0.14 to +3.41

Summer 2.5 +3.58 to +11.44 +4.95 to +21.07 +6.13 to +35.60 +7.90 to +48.94

Fall 0.13 +0.27 to +1.22 +0.27 to +2.45 +0.32 to +5.64 +0.54 to +7.89

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.19 +0.85 to +4.13 +1.20 to +9.18 +1.58 to +19.67 +2.23 to +33.05

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.09 +0.00 to +0.16 +0.01 to +0.48 +0.00 to +1.07

Summer 0.17 +0.84 to +3.63 +1.08 to +8.63 +1.35 to +17.83 +2.06 to +29.63

Fall 0.01 +0.02 to +0.34 +0.06 to +0.70 +0.07 to +1.47 +0.08 to +2.36

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.05 to +0.72 +0.11 to +2.07 +0.18 to +5.27 +0.17 to +11.36

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.08 +0.00 to +0.21

Summer 0.00 +0.05 to +0.60 +0.10 to +1.98 +0.17 to +4.87 +0.16 to +10.72

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.06 +0.00 to +0.15 +0.00 to +0.35 +0.00 to +0.58


century, the Westfield basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Westfield basin is expected to see days with daily maximum temperatures


end of the century.



o By end of century, the Westfield basin is expected to have 8 to 49 more days.

WESTFIELD BASIN

Westfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 13.19 -5.08 to -8.62 -6.55 to -10.32 -7.11 to -11.14 -7.82 to -11.80

Winter 12.49 -4.80 to -8.27 -6.19 to -9.89 -6.62 to -10.65 -7.36 to -11.23

Spring 0.72 -0.20 to -0.57 -0.26 to -0.64 -0.32 to -0.70 -0.31 to -0.70

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.01 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 166.59 -10.89 to -27.83 -20.14 to -38.37 -22.41 to -52.99 -24.19 to -62.18

Winter 86.46 -0.88 to -5.27 -1.81 to -7.5 -2.86 to -13.97 -3.35 to -17.46

Spring 45.71 -4.60 to -10.05 -6.28 to -15.13 -7.72 to -19.87 -9.44 to -21.53

Summer 0.05 -0.02 to -0.21 -0.02 to -0.33 -0.02 to -0.32 -0.02 to -0.30

Fall 34.31 -5.03 to -13.42 -9.73 to -15.91 -9.73 to -21.50 -10.06 to -24.48


century, the Westfield basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





end of century.


end of century.


end of century.

WESTFIELD BASIN

Westfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 7619.51 -658.04 to -1334.74 -901.22 to -1866.10 -1030.84 to -2442.42 -1186.18 to -2820.73

Winter 3775.41 -206.65 to -512.20 -279.06 to -758.39 -365.72 to -896.53 -417.18 to -1026.92

Spring 2017.33 -150.53 to -313.36 -216.75 to -490.67 -269.03 to -635.56 -317.46 to -752.99

Summer 206.21 -68.64 to -120.12 -92.91 to -153.52 -108.87 to -177.63 -119.59 to -188.95

Fall 1621.29 -186.50 to -430.65 -313.10 to -535.07 -304.53 to -743.17 -327.66 to -853.44

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 317.03 +175.98 to +362.47 +231.26 to +630.76 +271.22 to +978.35 +314.00 to +1311.08

Winter nan -1.24 to +3.08 +0.89 to +7.36 -0.10 to +3.56 +0.28 to +10.74

Spring 15.22 +6.46 to +20.18 +11.56 to +39.42 +14.76 to +67.64 +15.08 to +99.36

Summer 274.66 +138.66 to +299.47 +175.53 to +493.47 +204.41 to +755.39 +241.26 to +960.60

Fall 24.93 +19.00 to +62.74 +28.22 to +104.35 +35.08 to +183.98 +44.95 to +251.18

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2012.93 +382.45 to +764.30 +516.64 to +1203.60 +619.76 to +1806.63 +702.01 to +2283.12

Winter 3.25 -0.57 to +7.16 +0.79 to +7.71 +0.43 to +12.24 +1.66 to +18.29

Spring 222.84 +54.24 to +118.00 +79.53 to +206.89 +102.16 to +306.81 +102.02 to +409.27

Summer 1450.7 +208.57 to +410.05 +276.24 to +646.89 +316.49 to +931.10 +363.54 to +1144.49

Fall 326.35 +102.29 to +261.40 +154.76 to +374.15 +157.74 to +569.69 +203.91 to +710.15


end of the century, the Westfield basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.













WESTFIELD BASIN


1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 8.18 +0.08 to +2.45 +0.68 to +3.53 +1.04 to +3.38 +0.79 to +4.73

Winter 1.39 -0.05 to +0.72 +0.14 to +1.13 +0.12 to +1.33 +0.33 to +1.62

Spring 2.07 -0.07 to +0.63 +0.01 to +0.81 +0.19 to +1.45 +0.25 to +1.71

Summer 2.39 -0.26 to +0.73 -0.16 to +1.05 -0.26 to +0.75 -0.29 to +0.80

Fall 2.31 -0.34 to +0.78 -0.22 to +1.09 -0.26 to +1.11 -0.32 to +1.24

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 1.06 -0.11 to +0.54 -0.07 to +0.65 +0.05 to +0.79 +0.08 to +0.96

Winter 0.08 -0.05 to +0.07 -0.05 to +0.13 -0.04 to +0.13 -0.03 to +0.16

Spring 0.24 +0.00 to +0.15 -0.01 to +0.19 +0.02 to +0.33 +0.03 to +0.39

Summer 0.48 -0.08 to +0.20 -0.04 to +0.22 -0.12 to +0.23 -0.11 to +0.25

Fall 0.26 -0.08 to +0.25 -0.09 to +0.29 -0.07 to +0.28 -0.07 to +0.32

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.02 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.07 -0.03 to +0.10 -0.02 to +0.15

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.01 -0.01 to +0.01 -0.01 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 -0.01 to +0.05

Summer 0.01 -0.02 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.02 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.05

Fall 0.01 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.02 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.02 to +0.05


for the Westfield basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.





WESTFIELD BASIN


1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 50.7 -0.24 to +5.11 +1.18 to +6.85 +2.04 to +8.06 +2.08 to +9.10

Winter 11.2 -0.41 to +2.25 +0.19 to +2.78 +0.31 to +3.18 +0.81 to +4.08

Spring 13.41 +0.01 to +2.19 +0.33 to +2.21 +0.65 to +2.96 +0.71 to +3.14

Summer 13.23 -0.12 to +1.98 -0.07 to +2.14 -0.10 to +2.05 -0.62 to +2.03

Fall 12.87 -1.39 to +1.68 -1.35 to +1.97 -1.72 to +1.97 -2.09 to +1.71


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Westfield basin.





The summer season projections for the Westfield or basin could see a decrease




The fall season projections for the Westfield basin could see a decrease of 1.4 to

an increase of 2 inches by mid-century (decrease of 10% to increase of 15%) and



Westfield Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 16.8 -0.26 to +1.40 -0.28 to +2.17 -0.65 to +2.27 -0.47 to +2.64

Winter 11.66 -0.81 to +0.96 -0.62 to +1.01 -0.68 to +1.35 -1.01 to +1.38

Spring 11.67 -1.00 to +0.70 -0.86 to +1.16 -1.22 to +1.05 -1.39 to +0.78

Summer 11.33 -0.81 to +1.43 -0.44 to +0.99 -0.91 to +1.65 -1.55 to +1.95

Fall 11.82 -0.08 to +1.62 -0.06 to +2.37 -0.30 to +2.51 -0.03 to +3.07




o For all the temporal parameters, the Westfield basin is expected to see a slight decrease






MARTHA’S VINEYARD BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN MARTHA’S VINEYARD BASIN:

Aquinnah, Chilmark, Edgartown, Gosnold, Oak Bluffs, Tisbury West Tisbury


MARTHA’S VINEYAR BASIN

Martha’s Vineyard Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 50.57 +1.78 to +3.34 +2.36 to +5.15 +2.73 to +7.40 +3.03 to +9.05

Winter 32.43 +1.67 to +3.50 +2.36 to +5.17 +2.71 to +7.14 +3.00 to +8.68

Spring 46.63 +1.50 to +3.02 +1.93 to +4.88 +2.29 to +6.62 +2.57 to +7.24

Summer 68.8 +1.77 to +4.04 +2.64 to +5.83 +3.11 to +8.48 +3.63 to +9.86

Fall 54.13 +1.83 to +3.62 +2.86 to +5.52 +2.75 to +7.94 +3.12 to +9.68

Maximum Temperature

Annual 58.82 +1.68 to +3.38 +2.21 to +5.11 +2.45 to +7.37 +2.77 to +8.91

Winter 40.56 +1.45 to +3.47 +1.98 to +4.71 +2.40 to +6.84 +2.70 to +8.22

Spring 54.9 +1.35 to +2.87 +1.72 to +4.61 +2.02 to +6.38 +2.21 to +7.11

Summer 77.06 +1.66 to +4.02 +2.49 to +5.82 +3.02 to +8.37 +3.41 to +9.58

Fall 62.48 +1.75 to +3.50 +2.70 to +5.51 +2.69 to +7.73 +2.91 to +9.69

Minimum Temperature

Annual 42.31 +1.89 to +3.41 +2.60 to +5.32 +3.01 to +7.44 +3.30 to +9.14

Winter 24.3 +1.94 to +3.62 +2.71 to +5.61 +3.12 to +7.76 +3.47 to +9.19

Spring 38.35 +1.52 to +3.21 +2.24 to +5.16 +2.40 to +6.85 +2.75 to +7.38

Summer 60.53 +1.92 to +4.06 +2.80 to +5.87 +3.16 to +8.52 +3.84 to +9.96

Fall 45.78 +1.86 to +3.70 +2.95 to +5.60 +2.81 to +8.08 +3.33 to +9.89

The Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures

throughout the 21st century. Maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to

increase throughout the end of the century. These increased temperature trends are expected

for annual and seasonal projections.




of 3.4 °F to 9.6 °F (4-12% increase).




21st century.



o Fall mid-century of 3 °F to 5.6 °F (6-12% increase); end of century increase of 3.3°F to

9.9°F (7-22% increase).



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 0.8 +1.36 to +4.92 +2.49 to +10.00 +3.20 to +20.83 +4.46 to +30.90

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.01 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.01 to +0.11 -0.01 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.25

Summer 0.78 +1.22 to +4.54 +2.41 to +9.61 +3.04 to +19.97 +4.24 to +29.47

Fall 0.00 +0.03 to +0.25 +0.06 to +0.40 +0.08 to +0.78 +0.12 to +1.55

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.02 +0.10 to +0.76 +0.33 to +1.67 +0.41 to +4.04 +0.58 to +7.52

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.09

Summer 0.02 +0.08 to +0.74 +0.33 to +1.64 +0.41 to +3.94 +0.52 to +7.27

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.09 +0.00 to +0.23

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.21 +0.00 to +0.58 +0.00 to +1.15

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.20 +0.00 to +0.58 +0.00 to +1.15

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01


century, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with

daily maximum temperatures over 90 °F, 95 °F, and 100 °F.

o Annually, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to see days with daily maximum





o By end of century, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to have 4 to 49 more days.



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 0.47 -0.00 to -0.31 -0.06 to -0.32 -0.07 to -0.41 -0.09 to -0.34

Winter 0.47 -0.00 to -0.31 -0.06 to -0.32 -0.07 to -0.41 -0.09 to -0.34

Spring 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 104.63 -13.11 to -24.93 -19.34 to -38.71 -21.27 to -50.91 -22.53 to -63.42

Winter 70.57 -4.39 to -10.57 -6.75 to -17.26 -8.38 to -26.69 -10.00 to -35.51

Spring 23.91 -4.44 to -10.62 -6.75 to -15.10 -7.58 to -16.90 -9.68 to -18.55

Summer 0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00 -0.03 to -0.00

Fall 10.04 -3.41 to -5.39 -4.64 to -7.02 -5.00 to -9.01 -5.33 to -9.98


century, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily





by end of century.


by end of century.


of century.



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 5772.08 -432.01 to -846.80 -656.35 to -1290.98 -731.25 to -1747.25 -768.72 to -2069.21

Winter 2950.14 -148.65 to -321.07 -211.22 to -473.25 -244.01 to -642.99 -281.63 to -788.18

Spring 1695.64 -135.30 to -273.07 -173.73 to -434.52 -204.06 to -576.51 -237.19 to -623.61

Summer 76.68 -28.16 to -53.78 -42.87 to -66.01 -42.50 to -75.27 -43.66 to -78.81

Fall 1044.5 -128.19 to -256.36 -214.31 to -378.31 -208.02 to -529.80 -228.58 to -603.72

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 485.77 +170.56 to +398.79 +267.22 to +589.42 +279.55 to +940.78 +362.30 to +1142.37

Winter nan nan to nan +2.86 to +2.86 nan to nan +3.55 to +3.55

Spring 7.88 +0.87 to +7.14 +2.20 to +15.87 +2.84 to +28.98 +5.02 to +39.78

Summer 425.88 +138.07 to +327.08 +197.26 to +475.68 +234.61 to +697.21 +282.09 to +829.21

Fall 54.11 +26.85 to +73.46 +41.89 to +123.07 +44.77 to +207.10 +63.96 to +279.22

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2553.43 +366.00 to +703.29 +492.53 to +1069.15 +540.11 to +1626.41 +647.88 to +2020.61

Winter 5.18 -0.86 to +9.47 -0.05 to +16.21 +1.81 to +26.21 +4.41 to +37.58

Spring 221.69 +39.04 to +97.22 +51.22 to +186.23 +62.27 to +274.92 +64.11 to +314.57

Summer 1729.23 +162.99 to +371.51 +242.60 to +535.87 +285.38 to +780.31 +333.07 to +906.81

Fall 597.87 +98.62 to +229.29 +167.80 to +378.91 +162.09 to +556.42 +201.06 to +699.88


end of the century, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating




significant change.





century.



century.















Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 6.65 +0.31 to +1.75 +0.55 to +2.90 +0.50 to +3.12 +0.78 to +3.36

Winter 1.22 -0.13 to +0.55 -0.05 to +0.62 -0.02 to +0.99 -0.04 to +1.18

Spring 1.72 +0.22 to +0.61 +0.12 to +0.93 +0.34 to +1.04 +0.36 to +1.06

Summer 1.82 -0.32 to +0.58 -0.04 to +0.76 -0.26 to +0.68 -0.41 to +0.68

Fall 1.89 -0.26 to +0.75 -0.14 to +0.99 -0.17 to +0.86 -0.19 to +1.27

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.52 -0.01 to +0.37 +0.03 to +0.34 +0.05 to +0.45 +0.07 to +0.57

Winter 0.08 -0.06 to +0.13 -0.05 to +0.14 -0.03 to +0.14 -0.02 to +0.24

Spring 0.03 -0.01 to +0.10 -0.01 to +0.13 +0.00 to +0.12 -0.01 to +0.17

Summer 0.25 -0.04 to +0.09 -0.01 to +0.12 -0.01 to +0.11 -0.02 to +0.17

Fall 0.16 -0.03 to +0.14 -0.02 to +0.13 -0.01 to +0.16 -0.03 to +0.27

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.03 +0.00 to +0.02 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.06 -0.03 to +0.08

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.02 +0.00 to +0.03

Fall 0.03 -0.03 to +0.01 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.07


for the Martha’s Vineyard basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.







Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 46.02 -1.04 to 2.45 -1.01 to +3.78 -0.91 to +5.09 -0.69 to +4.87

Winter 11.85 -0.47 to +1.30 -0.42 to +1.61 -0.18 to +2.04 -0.16 to +2.84

Spring 12.12 -0.22 to +1.51 -0.51 to +1.76 +0.10 to +2.00 -0.19 to +2.16

Summer 10.38 -0.81 to +0.88 -1.06 to +1.53 -1.53 to +1.64 -1.86 to +1.57

Fall 11.71 -1.00 to +0.67 -1.15 to +0.91 -1.03 to +1.38 -1.91 to +1.21


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Martha’s Vineyard basin.


to an increase of 14% by mid-century, and a decrease of 1% to an increase of 24% by

end of century.



The summer season projections for the Martha’s Vineyard or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Martha’s Vineyard basin could see a decrease

of 1.2 to an increase of 0.9 inches by mid-century (decrease of 10% to increase

of 8%) and a decrease of 1.9 to an increase of 1.2 inches by the end of the



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 17.68 -0.89 to +1.72 -0.25 to +2.39 +0.00 to +3.05 -0.54 to +3.87

Winter 10.41 -0.50 to +1.30 -0.36 to +1.62 -0.47 to +1.80 -0.62 to +1.99

Spring 10.26 -1.11 to +0.95 -0.90 to +1.13 -0.76 to +0.85 -1.62 to +1.16

Summer 14.65 -0.87 to +1.93 -0.59 to +2.39 -0.63 to +3.13 -0.47 to +4.18

Fall 13.1 -0.42 to +2.05 +0.08 to +2.40 -0.20 to +3.32 -0.11 to +3.29

Annual and seasonal projections for consecutive dry days, or for a given period, the largest number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm (~0.04 inches), are variable throughout the 21st century.

o For all the temporal parameters, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to see a slight decrease to an increase in consecutive dry days throughout this century.

o Seasonally, the fall and summer seasons are expected to continue to experience the highest number of consecutive dry days.

The summer season is expected to experience an increase of 0-4 days in consecutive dry days by the end of the century.

NANTUCKET ISLAND BASIN

MUNICIPALITIES WITHIN NANTUCKET ISLAND BASIN:

Nantucket


NANTUCKET BASIN

Nantucket Island Basin

Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (°F)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Average Temperature

Annual 50.12 +1.77 to +3.50 +2.48 to +5.36 +2.86 to +7.58 +3.22 to +9.22

Winter 33 +1.79 to +3.62 +2.40 to +5.52 +3.02 to +7.43 +3.26 to +8.85

Spring 45.71 +1.83 to +3.53 +2.43 to +5.38 +2.75 to +7.22 +3.18 to +8.12

Summer 67.48 +1.57 to +3.92 +2.61 to +5.90 +2.92 to +8.66 +3.48 to +10.04

Fall 54.05 +1.60 to +3.51 +2.70 to +5.47 +2.67 to +7.86 +3.15 to +9.54

Maximum Temperature

Annual 57.4 +1.61 to +3.46 +2.32 to +5.25 +2.57 to +7.53 +2.95 to +9.11

Winter 40.34 +1.53 to +3.60 +2.05 to +5.05 +2.62 to +7.07 +2.91 to +8.40

Spring 52.93 +1.63 to +3.42 +2.15 to +5.17 +2.53 to +7.07 +2.84 to +7.93

Summer 74.68 +1.57 to +3.91 +2.55 to +5.89 +2.78 to +8.51 +3.18 to +9.83

Fall 61.4 +1.53 to +3.43 +2.52 to +5.42 +2.51 to +7.60 +2.88 to +9.40

Minimum Temperature

Annual 42.84 +1.97 to +3.62 +2.76 to +5.56 +3.15 to +7.68 +3.53 to +9.31

Winter 25.66 +2.05 to +3.88 +2.76 to +5.98 +3.42 to +8.12 +3.67 to +9.53

Spring 38.49 +1.84 to +3.74 +2.72 to +5.59 +2.89 to +7.36 +3.43 to +8.35

Summer 60.27 +1.58 to +4.02 +2.74 to +5.90 +3.08 to +8.68 +3.66 to +10.23

Fall 46.71 +1.67 to +3.76 +2.87 to +5.52 +2.82 to +8.11 +3.42 to +9.67

The Nantucket basin is expected to experience increased average temperatures throughout the







of 3.2 °F to 9.8 °F (4-13% increase).




21st century.




9.7 °F (7-21% increase).



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 90°F

Annual 0.38 +0.32 to +1.79 +0.94 to +3.53 +0.91 to +8.55 +1.44 to +17.49

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.08 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.13

Summer 0.38 +0.30 to +1.66 +0.91 to +3.32 +0.88 to +8.19 +1.36 to +16.57

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.01 to +0.17 +0.01 to +0.35 +0.01 to +0.75

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 95°F

Annual 0.09 +0.00 to +0.19 +0.05 to +0.52 +0.08 to +1.12 +0.13 to +3.01

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.03 +0.00 to +0.05

Summer 0.09 +0.00 to +0.19 +0.05 to +0.49 +0.08 to +1.11 +0.13 to +2.88

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.12

Days with

Maximum

Temperature

Over 100°F

Annual 0.00 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.47

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00

Summer 0.00 +0.00 to +0.04 +0.00 to +0.07 +0.00 to +0.11 +0.00 to +0.47

Fall 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00


century, the Nantucket basin is also expected to experience an increase in days with daily


o Annually, the Nantucket basin is expected to see days with daily maximum

temperatures over 90 °F increase by 1 to 4 more days by mid-century, and 1 to 17 more

days by the end of the century.



o By end of century, the Nantucket basin is expected to have 1 to 17 more days.



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 0°F

Annual 0.06 -0.12 to +0.03 -0.13 to -0.00 -0.13 to -0.00 -0.13 to -0.00

Winter 0.06 -0.12 to +0.03 -0.13 to -0.00 -0.13 to -0.00 -0.13 to -0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Summer 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Fall 0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00 -0.00 to -0.00

Days with

Minimum

Temperature

Below 32°F

Annual 96.58 -14.83 to -28.15 -20.37 to -42.64 -24.81 to -56.01 -27.57 to -67.76

Winter 67.02 -7.65 to -15.40 -8.41 to -24.42 -12.24 to -34.07 -14.50 to -42.79

Spring 21.85 -5.82 to -10.81 -6.86 to -13.90 -9.46 to -17.23 -11.07 to -18.98

Summer 0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00 -0.02 to -0.00

Fall 7.58 -2.50 to -4.32 -3.29 to -5.34 -3.26 to -6.39 -3.48 to -6.73


century, the Nantucket basin is expected to experience a decrease in days with daily minimum





by end of century.


by end of century.


of century.



Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Degree-


Mid-Century



End of Century


Heating

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 5823.1 -477.55 to -936.02 -715.46 to -1399.84 -787.29 to -1873.01 -875.94 to -2178.77

Winter 2894.01 -162.16 to -333.12 -214.38 to -500.12 -273.85 to -675.08 -295.20 to -804.22

Spring 1777.12 -165.27 to -315.07 -215.83 to -477.38 -247.37 to -632.50 -291.11 to -706.28

Summer 106.93 -41.48 to -77.53 -60.28 to -93.85 -63.99 to -113.79 -66.98 to -120.19

Fall 1039.59 -108.04 to -250.06 -200.70 to -365.54 -193.57 to -516.71 -224.58 to -580.84

Cooling

Degree-Days

(Base 65°F)

Annual 381.61 +136.38 to +376.02 +243.38 to +570.79 +262.59 to +928.02 +323.57 to +1138.99

Winter nan nan to nan -0.48 to -0.48 nan to nan +0.56 to +0.56

Spring 6.24 +1.73 to +7.74 +3.43 to +18.85 +5.07 to +30.97 +3.92 to +43.22

Summer 334.73 +106.19 to +299.42 +174.99 to +453.56 +207.11 to +673.69 +240.73 to +801.48

Fall 43.71 +27.82 to +73.83 +43.57 to +126.61 +43.49 to +214.13 +68.70 to +283.65

Growing

Degree-Days

(Base 50°F)

Annual 2359.7 +346.33 to +716.84 +509.17 to +1095.47 +568.95 to +1654.66 +674.29 to +2052.72

Winter 4.84 -0.92 to +7.70 -0.66 to +16.97 +1.36 to +28.10 +4.36 to +42.06

Spring 169.31 +52.00 to +117.81 +75.70 to +215.41 +88.99 to +300.75 +92.04 to +362.85

Summer 1607.88 +143.95 to +360.06 +238.99 to +542.08 +268.13 to +795.43 +318.48 to +922.84

Fall 579.77 +105.06 to +232.51 +169.68 to +382.21 +158.33 to +559.21 +207.69 to +695.03


end of the century, the Nantucket basin is expected to experience a decrease in heating degree-




significant change.





century.



century.















Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Days with

Precipitation

Over 1”

Annual 4.97 +0.35 to +1.51 +0.41 to +2.38 +0.58 to +2.82 +0.53 to +3.19

Winter 0.87 -0.22 to +0.51 -0.18 to +0.67 -0.03 to +0.84 +0.00 to +1.27

Spring 1.1 -0.01 to +0.60 +0.01 to +0.87 +0.30 to +1.15 +0.18 to +1.11

Summer 1.37 -0.14 to +0.51 -0.01 to +0.76 -0.23 to +0.73 -0.36 to +0.57

Fall 1.62 -0.14 to +0.45 -0.16 to +0.79 -0.32 to +0.95 -0.27 to +1.19

Days with

Precipitation

Over 2”

Annual 0.39 -0.12 to +0.39 -0.02 to +0.66 +0.02 to +0.78 +0.04 to +0.88

Winter 0.05 -0.02 to +0.13 -0.06 to +0.14 +0.00 to +0.20 +0.00 to +0.27

Spring 0.00 -0.05 to +0.13 -0.04 to +0.19 -0.05 to +0.22 -0.06 to +0.22

Summer 0.2 -0.10 to +0.23 -0.04 to +0.36 -0.05 to +0.38 -0.10 to +0.35

Fall 0.14 -0.09 to +0.12 -0.07 to +0.19 -0.06 to +0.28 -0.08 to +0.32

Days with

Precipitation

Over 4”

Annual 0.04 -0.10 to +0.08 -0.07 to +0.09 -0.06 to +0.12 -0.07 to +0.16

Winter 0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.00 +0.00 to +0.01 +0.00 to +0.00

Spring 0.00 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.04 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.05

Summer 0.01 -0.07 to +0.06 -0.05 to +0.08 -0.06 to +0.06 -0.06 to +0.08

Fall 0.03 -0.03 to +0.03 -0.03 to +0.02 -0.03 to +0.05 -0.03 to +0.07


for the Nantucket basin, fluctuating between loss and gain of days.


increase.







Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Inches)


Mid-Century



End of Century


Total Precipitation

Annual 37.68 -0.60 to 3.04 +0.24 to +4.71 +0.03 to +5.48 +0.05 to +5.83

Winter 9.58 -0.15 to +1.19 -0.32 to +1.33 +0.06 to +1.97 -0.39 to +2.83

Spring 9.69 -0.05 to +1.42 -0.15 to +1.83 +0.24 to +2.33 +0.32 to +2.31

Summer 8.7 -0.74 to +1.18 -0.79 to +1.73 -1.30 to +1.86 -1.94 to +1.59

Fall 9.72 -1.21 to +0.91 -0.87 to +1.35 -1.02 to +1.70 -1.35 to +1.94


seasonal projections for total precipitation are also variable for the Martha’s Vineyard basin.


to an increase of 14% by mid-century, and a decrease of 4% to an increase of 30% by

end of century.



The summer season projections for the Martha’s Vineyard or basin could see a




The fall season projections for the Martha’s Vineyard basin could see a decrease of 1.2 to an increase of 0.9 inches by mid-century (decrease of 9% to increase of 14%) and a decrease of 1.9 to an increase of 1.2 inches by the end of the century (decrease of 14% to increase of 20%).


Observed Baseline

1971-2000 (Days)


Mid-Century



End of Century



Annual 19.8 -0.72 to +1.94 -1.08 to +3.03 -1.02 to +4.22 -0.87 to +5.23

Winter 10.83 -0.46 to +1.66 -0.36 to +1.71 -0.56 to +2.17 -1.16 to +2.22

Spring 11.4 -0.85 to +1.28 -1.01 to +1.34 -0.65 to +1.77 -1.18 to +1.85

Summer 16.98 -1.11 to +2.26 -1.19 to +2.51 -0.62 to +4.30 -1.01 to +6.00

Fall 12.87 -0.90 to +2.57 -0.62 to +2.38 -0.26 to +2.73 +0.09 to +3.58

Annual and seasonal projections for consecutive dry days, or for a given period, the largest number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm (~0.04 inches), are variable throughout the 21st century.

o For all the temporal parameters, the Martha’s Vineyard basin is expected to see a slight decrease to an increase in consecutive dry days throughout this century.

o Seasonally, the fall and summer seasons are expected to continue to experience the highest number of consecutive dry days.

The summer season is expected to experience a decrease of 1 day to an increase of 6 days in consecutive dry days by the end of the century.

Sea Level Rise Projections

Future sea-level projections are provided for the Massachusetts coastline at established tide

gauge locations at Boston Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Nantucket, Newport, RI, Sandwich, Seavey

Island, NH, and Woods Hole. The methodology for developing these projections closely follows

the approach applied to Boston Harbor for Climate Ready Boston,12 and a recent analysis for

the State of California.13 The analysis consists of a probabilistic assessment of future sea level

at each tide gauge location and following two possible future greenhouse gas emissions

scenarios: medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5).14 Relative Sea Level (RSL) is the local difference

in elevation between the sea surface and land surface. A multi-year reference time period for

RSL was used to minimize biases caused by tidal, seasonal, and interannual climate variability,

following the common practice of using a 19-year tidal datum epoch15 centered on 2000 as the

‘zero’ reference for changes in RSL.16 Estimates of relative sea-level at site-specific locations and

at individual years requires the consideration of processes not explicitly considered in the

analysis.

Collectively, these sea level rise projections provide the background sea level estimates that can

be used for detailed, site specific hydrodynamical modeling17 to map storm surge impacts, and

influences of localized processes along the coast. For the MVP program, while not sight-specific

or projections of mean higher high water levels, these projections provide insight into overall

trends in rising sea levels along the Commonwealth coastline, to help coastal municipal officials

and workshop participants identify future hazards exacerbated by rising seas.

Impacts from Rising Sea Levels

The impact of rising sea levels depends on local factors and geographies. The local impacts

from sea level rise along our coast will be shaped by regional ocean currents, wind patterns,

12

Douglas, E., P. Kirshen, R. Hannigan, R. Herst, A. Palardy, R. DeConto, D. FitzGerald, C. Hay, Z. Hughes, A. Kemp, R. Kopp, B. Anderson, Z. Kuang, S. Ravela, J. Woodruff, M. Barlow, M. Collins, A. DeGaetano, C. A. Schlosser, A. Ganguly, E. Kodra, and M. Ruth (2016), Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Projections for Boston: the Boston Research Advisory Group Report, 54 pp. pp., Climate Ready Boston, Boston, MA. 13

Griggs, G., Arvai, J., Cayan, D., DeConto, R., Fox, J., Fricker, H. A., Kopp, R. E., Tebaldi, C., Whiteman, E.A. and the California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group (2017), Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science. California, Ocean Science Trust, April 2017. 14

Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K.,Lamarque, J.-F. (2011), The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31. 15

A tidal datum epoch is a 19-year period over which tidal height observations are taken and reduced to obtain mean values in order to establish the various datums (e.g., mean higher high water, etc.)(NOAA Tides and Currents). 16

e.g., Sweet, W. V., R. E. Kopp, C. P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R. M. Horton, E. R. Thieler and C. Zervas (2017), Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083. 17

e.g., Bosma, K., E. Douglas, P. Kirshen, K. McArthur, S. Miller, S., and C. Watson (2015), Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Options for the Central Artery. MassDOT, Boston MA.

land and shoreland elevations, geomorphic processes such as subsidence and accretion rates

(sinking and accumulation of sediment), and tidal zones.

For low elevation coastal areas, even a rise of less than a foot can produce significant new risks

for development and infrastructure like the electrical grid and storm and waste water systems

near the shore.

Sea level rise driven by climate change will exacerbate many other existing coastal hazards, like

severe storms and storm surge, tidal inundation and salt water intrusion.

With rising sea levels, more regular flooding of developed and natural low-lying coastal areas is

expected to occur due to more frequent tidal inundation. There will be increased erosion of

existing coastal landforms (e.g., beaches and dunes). Damage to coastal engineering structures

(e.g, seawalls) and more frequent flooding of coastal properties and neighrborhoods may occur

as tidal range and wave energy increases.

As water levels rise, coastal storm surge events will cause inundation of larger areas, and will

occur more frequently. Storm surges can damage or destroy coastal engineering structures,

critical infrastructure such as waste water treatment plants or transportation systems, and

private property. Massachusetts has highways, subway systems and rail lines located close to

the coast.

Salt-water intrusion, or the increased penetration of salt-water into estuarine habitats, such as

salt marshes and freshwater wetlands. It could alter the composition of the plant species and

affect the wildlife that depend on these ecosystems. Water resources (such as drinking water)

could also be impacted by salt-water intrusion and by the corrosion of important infrastructure.

Table 6: Sea level rise projections at the Boston tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium (RCP 4.5) and

high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, at multiple levels of likelihood, in feet relative to mean sea level in 2000.

Figure 1: Sea level rise projections at the Boston tide gauge. Projection curves are given for the medium (RCP

4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, at multiple levels of likelihood, in feet relative to mean sea level in

2000. These projections of sea level rise do not include potential contributions from significant losses of the

Antarctic ice sheet.

Table 8: Sea level rise projections at the Nantucket tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium (RCP 4.5)

and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, at multiple levels of likelihood, in feet relative to mean sea level in 2000.

Figure 2: Sea level rise projections at the Nantucket tide gauge. Projection curves are given for the medium (RCP


2000. These projections of sea level rise do not include potential contributions from significant losses of the

Antarctic ice sheet.

Table 9: Sea level rise projections at the Woods Hole tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium (RCP 4.5)


Figure 3: Sea level rise projections at the Woods Hole tide gauge. Projection curves are given for the medium

(RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, at multiple levels of likelihood, in feet relative to mean sea

level in 2000. These projections of sea level rise do not include potential contributions from significant losses of

the Antarctic ice sheet.

Table 10: Sea level rise projections at the Buzzards Bay tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium (RCP


2000.

Table 11: Sea level rise projections at the Sandwich Marina tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium


level in 2000.

Table 12: Sea level rise projections at the Seavey Island, ME tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium


level in 2000.

Table 13: Sea level rise projections at the Newport, RI tide gauge. Projections are given for the medium (RCP 4.5)


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