Download - John Green -- Key West Dec. 2008
The Faith Factor in 2008
John C. Green
Senior Fellow
The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life
www.pewforum.org
How did the faith factor operate?
1. The structure of faith-based politics was similar in 2008 and 2004
2. Democrats made the largest gains among minority religious groups
3. Democrats made only modest gains among white Christians
The structure of faith-based politics
1. Religious affiliation, tied closely to race and ethnicity
2. Some “ethno-religious” groups have been key elements of party coalitions historically
3. Religiosity, such as worship attendance, creates groups within religious affiliations
4. Religiosity has been a key factor among white Christian traditions in recent times
R eligious G roups and the 2008 P residential V ote
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsLess Observant Evangelical Protestants
Other ChristiansWeekly Attending White Catholics
Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsLess Observant Mainline Protestants
Hispanic ProtestantsALL
Less Observant White CatholicsOther Minority Protestant
Unaffiliated BelieversOther Faiths
SecularsOther Minority Catholics
Hispanic CatholicsJews
Black Protestants
Obama
McCa in
R eligious G roups and the 2004 P residential V ote
0 .0 20 .0 40 .0 60 .0 80 .0 100 .0
Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsOther Christians
Less Observant Evangelical ProtestantsHispanic Protestants
Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsWeekly Attending White Catholics
Other Minority ProtestantALL
Less Observant White CatholicsLess Observant Mainline Protestants
Hispanic CatholicsUnaffiliated Believers
Other Minority CatholicsOther Faiths
SecularsJews
Black Protestants
Kerry
Bush
R elig iou s G rou ps and the D em ocra tic P res iden tia l Vo te , 2004 and 2008
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsLess Observant Evangelical Protestants
Other ChristiansWeekly Attending White Catholics
Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsLess Observant Mainline Protestants
Hispanic ProtestantsALL
Less Observant White CatholicsOther Minority Protestant
Unaffiliated BelieversOther Faiths
SecularsOther Minority Catholics
Hispanic CatholicsJews
Black Protestants
Kerry
Obama
R elig io u s G ro u p s an d th e R ep u b lican P res id en tia l Vo te , 2004 an d 2008
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsLess Observant Evangelical Protestants
Other ChristiansWeekly Attending White Catholics
Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsLess Observant Mainline Protestants
Hispanic ProtestantsALL
Less Observant White CatholicsOther Minority Protestant
Unaffiliated BelieversOther Faiths
SecularsOther Minority Catholics
Hispanic CatholicsJews
Black Protestants
Bush
McCa in
Why was the change so modest?
1. The overall change between 2004 and 2008 was modest—just four percentage points
2. Religious groups are strongly partisan and partisanship affects the vote
3. The pattern of faith-based mobilization played a role in the changes that occurred
R elig io u s G ro u p s an d P art isan sh ip , 2008
0 .010 .020 .030 .040 .050 .060 .070 .080 .090 .0
100 .0
A t t en d in gE v an ge lica ls
E v an ge lica l,O t h e rs
A t t en d in gC at h o lic s
A t t en d in gM ain lin e rs
L es sA t t en d in gM ain lin e rs
L es sA t t en d in gC at h o lic s
M in o r it yC h r is t ian s
U n af f ilia t ed N o n -C h r is t ian s
B lackP ro t es t an t s
% Obama 2008
% Democra tic
R elig io us G rou p s an d C o n gregatio na l C o n tac t, 2004 and 2008
0
20
40
60
A t t en d in gE v an ge lica ls
E v an ge lica l,O t h ers
A t t en d in gC at h o lics
A t t en d in gM ain lin e rs
L es sA t t en d in g
M ain lin e rs
L es sA t t en d in g
C at h o lics
M in o r it yC h r is t ian s
U n aff ilia t ed N o n -C h r is t ian s
B lackP ro t es t an t s
Congrega tiona l contact 2008
Congrega tiona l contact 2004
R elig ious G r oups and C am paign C ontacts, 2004 and 2008
-60
0
60
A t te n d in gEv a n g e lic a ls
Ev a n g e lic a l,O th e rs
A t t e n d in gC a th o lic s
A t t e n d in gM a in lin e rs
Le s sA t t e n d in gM a in lin e rs
Le s sA t t e n d in gC a th o lic s
M in o rit yC h ris t ia n s
U n a ffilia t e d N o n -C h ris t ia n s
B la c kP ro t e s t a n t s
2008 ne t contacts
2004 ne t contacts
R elig ious G roups and P ercep tion o f the E lec tion R esu lts , 2004 and 2008
0 50 100
Weekly Attend ing White Evange lica l Pro testants
Less Obse rvant Evange lica l Pro tes tants
Weekly Attend ing White Ca tho lics
Weekly Attend ing White Ma inline Pro tes tants
Less Obse rvant Ma inline Pro tes tants
Less Obse rvant White Ca tho lics
Mino rity Chris tians
Una ffi lia ted
Non-Chris tians
Black Pro testants
Happy Obama was e lected
Happy Bush was re -e lected
R elig ious G roups and P ercep tion o f S uccess ,2004 and 2008
0 .0 50 .0 100 .0
Weekly Attend ing White Evange lica l Pro testantsLess Obse rvant Evange lica l Pro tes tants
Weekly Attend ing White Ca tho licsWeekly Attend ing White Ma inline Pro tes tants
Less Obse rvant Ma inline Pro testantsLess Obse rvant White Ca tho lics
Mino rity Chris tiansUna ffi lia ted
Non-Chris tiansBlack Pro testants
Bush wll be successful
Obama will be successful