IRCA 1986- Simpson-Mazzoli Act
• Employer sanctions• $ for Border Patrol• Amnesty
Hardening the Border
• http://regulus2.azstarnet.com/mediaskins/main.php?id=1356&choice=flv
“Old Days”
Operation Gatekeeper
Operation Gatekeeper
Size and budget of Border Patrol and INS 1978-98 (1986=1.0)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year
Ratio
to 1
986
Valu
e
INS Budget Border Patrol Budget Border Patrol Officers
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
IRCA Major Immigration Acts
Source: David Dixon and Julia Gelatt, "Immigration and Enforcement Spending Since IRCA," Background paper prepared for the Independent Task Force on Immigration and America's Future, September 2005.
• What are the consequences of increased enforcement?
Douglas, Arizona, and Agua Prieta, Mexico
2003-04 Apprehensions
Sonoran Desert
Hauser Canyon, in California, about 15 miles north of the U.S.-Mexico Border
Caution! Do not expose your life to the elements. There is no potable water. It's not worth it!
Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
En
trie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
Berlin Wall:239 deaths in crossing attempts, over 28 years
U.S.-Mexico Border:5,046 documented deaths
Cost (1983 dollars) of hiring a coyote (border smuggler) 1980-98
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llar
s
Tijuana Non-Tijuana
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Waiting for Coyotes
Probability of Apprehension by Year
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Year
Pro
bab
ility
per
Att
emp
t
IRCA PassesOperation Blockade Launched
Probability of taking first undocumented trip to the U.S. 1980-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Pro
bab
ility
Males Females
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Relative cost of Border Patrol enforcement 1980-98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llars
Cost ($10,000) per Point Cost ($) per Entry
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Beyond The Border Buildup: Towards A New Approach To Mexico-US Migration by Douglas S. Massey for the Immigration Policy Center
I-9 Employer Sanctions
Wages (1983 U.S. dollars) earned on last U.S. trip 1980-98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llars
per
Ho
ur
Documented Undocumented
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Percentage of Undocumented Migrants Going to Non-traditional Destination on Last U.S. trip 1980-98
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Per
cen
tag
e
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
1990 2005
Rest of US
Illinois
New Jersey
Texas
Florida
New York
California
Immigration Spreads Beyond Traditional Magnet States
19.7 m
35.1 m
Source: William H. Frey
Source: William H.Frey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
NorthCarolina
Tennessee Georgia Nevada Arizona Iowa Nebraska Colorado
Immigrant Growth, 1990-2005
Fast Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations 1990-2005
States with at least 5% Immigrants
17
26
29
0 10 20 30 40
1990
2000
2005
Source: William H. Frey
Immigrant Concentrations in States
15% or more
10-14%
5-9%
Less than 5%
1990 2005
Source: William H. Frey
At Least 5% Hispanic
States Counties
1990 16 538
2005 28 907
Source: William H. Frey
"Border Security Now"
Probability of returning from U.S. on first trip1980-98.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Pro
bab
ility
Pre-IRCA Period
Post-IRCA Period
Opertation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
A Quick Review of the Theory or Science of Migration
Rate of Immigration by Per Capita IncomeLatin America and the Caribbean
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
Per Capita Income
Rat
e o
f Im
mig
rati
on
Effect of Community Development on Rate of Migration to US
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Percentage of Women Employed in Manufacturing
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f U
S M
igra
tio
n
Mexico is Not a Poor Country!
Mexico USA Russia CongoPer Capita Income $8,900 $36,300 $9,700 $600Industry % Agriculture 5% 2% 6% 55% % Manufacturing 26% 18% 35% 11% % Services 69% 80% 59% 34%Demography Urbanization 74% 75% 73% 29% Life Expectancy 72.3 77.1 67.7 48.9 Fertility 2.5 2.1 1.3 6.7
Effect of Wages versus Interest Rates on Probability of US Migration
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
Expected Wage Ratio Mexican Real Interest Rate
Ch
ang
e in
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Policy Implications?
