Iran and
the BombJ.E. Dyer
For Children of Jewish Holocaust Survivors
18 November 2013
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Fissile material
Delivery system
Warhead device
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Fissile material
Enough HEU (U-235) for a warhead test PressTV image
Natanz Natanz + Fordo
Natanz + Fordo + ?
10,357kg LEU (3.5%)
196kg “MEU” (19.75%)
?? Kg HEU (93.5%)
IAEA report: Figures as of 5 November 2013
180-
240k
g
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Fissile material
Natanz + Fordo
Natanz + Fordo + ?
196kg “MEU” (19.75%)
?? Kg HEU (93.5%)
IAEA report: Figures as of 5 November 2013
“2 weeks from decision to break-out”Reuters image
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Fissile material
“2 weeks from decision to break-out”Reuters image
Newer centrifuges = dramatic acceleration
IAEA report: near-suspension of installations 14 November 2013
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Fissile material
Mainstream media conclusion:
Iranians making “concessions” to further negotiationsWorst case:
The “move after next” will be the breakout decision
Test the new centrifuges
Proceed to high enrichment
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Fissile material
Plutonium-239 from IR-40 heavy-water reactor
“Fat man” type bomb
1-2 bombs’ worth of P-239 per year
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Warhead device
Suspected detonator testing sites
U.S., Western intelligence
Credible Iranian sources
* Sites razed, “sanitized”
Lavizan-Shian *
Parchin *
Najafabad?
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Warhead device
IAEA concerns: “Possible military dimensions”
Nuclear explosive device:
Procurement
Design
Component testing – Detonator development/testing
Timeframe: 2002-2003
18 November 2011
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Warhead device
The North Korea connection 18 November 2011
2011 – Reports of NK nuclear scientists in Iran 2002-07
2010 – NK uranium bomb warhead tests?
2013 – Head of Iranian nuke program in NK for third warhead test (RAND: probable uranium bomb test)
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Delivery system
IAEA: “Possible military dimensions”18 November 2011
Nuclear payload for Shahab missile:
Engineering studies
Prototype components manufactured
Fuzing/arming/firing system
Timeframe: 2002-2003
Three components of a nuclear weapon:
Delivery system
UK Intel: Iran tested nuke-capable MRBMs 29 June 2011
Secret testing:
Solid-fuel Sejjil: 800km
Shahab, Sejjil tests to 2,000km
US surv. present but no US reporting
Timeframe: 2010-2011
CRS Report dated 6 December 2012
Threat radius: 2,000km
Threat radius: 2,000km
Silo site:Paraguana Peninsula Reported December 2010
Tabriz
Khorramabad
Semnan?
Underground missile silo sites
Shahrud
New ICBM testing site Reported August 2013
Semnan Rocket Complex
Expanded in 2009-10 with North Korean assistance
Extending range of Iranian missiles
Additional considerations
Iranian deception
Delayed IAEA recognition
Trigger points for Israeli strike
Regional reaction
Deception: Hassan Rouhani
2003 agreement with EU-3
Violated immediately and continuously
Rouhani boasted of it
“We did not stop [the enrichment as agreed with the EU-3], we completed the program!”
How far behind was IAEA?
Graphic: Institute for Science and International Security (Nov 2009)
How far behind was IAEA?
Aug-Dec 05
Rouhani totals 2005(Installed)
Operational centrifuges
ShahrudSemnan Rocket Complex
Tunnels, underground facilities
. Qom (Fordo)
Najafabad?
Trigger points for Israeli strikeImpending warhead test
Arak reactor start-up
Similar to Osirak 1981
Installation of S-300 air defense system
IRIAF air base
SA-5
Hawk
HQ-2
S-300 changes the game
Regional reaction
The nuclear picture
Regional reaction
??
? ??
The nuclear discussion
Missile defense
Regional reaction
The nuclear discussion
Missile defense
Regional reaction
The nuclear discussion
Missile defense
Meaning/purpose of NATO
Would have deployed in 2013
Regional reaction
The nuclear discussion
Missile defense
Meaning/purpose of NATO
Mobile interceptors in design – 2017?
Deployments to Romania, Bulgaria?
US Army cancels MEADS-Patriot follow-on
Turkey ambivalent – turns to China for air defense system?
Regional reaction
Proxy wars
Iran offered “missile umbrella” in 2011
“Extended deterrence”
During the Cold War, worked better against United States than against Soviet Union
The game will change
We can pay now…
… or we can pay later.
Iran and
the BombJ.E. Dyer
For Children of Jewish Holocaust Survivors
18 November 2013
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End of presentation
S-300 changes the game
Tabriz
Dezful
Esfahan
Hamadan
Mehrabad
Tehran
Natanz
Arak
Bushehr
Iran Air Bases and Fixed-Site SAM Coverage
CIA map/Author graphic depictions
IRIAF air base
SA-5
Hawk
HQ-2
Iran Air Bases and Fixed-Site SAM Coverage
CIA map/Author graphic depictions
IRIAF air base
SA-5
Hawk
HQ-2
IRIAF air base
SA-5
Hawk
HQ-2
