Impact of Climate Change:
A Discussion on Strategies and Planning for the City of Ames
Impact of Climate Change:
A Discussion on Strategies and Planning for the City of Ames
Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Ames City Council20 October 2009
OutlineOutline
Latest climate science in the run-up to Copenhagen (December)
Observed climate change in IowaFuture climate change for Iowa and the
US MidwestPossible planning and policy implications
Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able to cope
Latest climate science in the run-up to Copenhagen (December)
Observed climate change in IowaFuture climate change for Iowa and the
US MidwestPossible planning and policy implications
Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able to cope
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Balanced fuel sourcesEnergy intensive
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
Arctic Sea-Ice Decline
Actual sea-ice cover declines are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report
Eos, Vol. 90, No. 37, 15 September 2009
Decline in Greenland Ice Mass
Greenland annual ice mass loss exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report
http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/melt/index.html
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas
Projected sea-level Rise in 21st century:
IPCC, 2007:18-59 cm
Rahmstorf, 2009:50-140 cm (obs)
Corell, 2004:50-100 cm
Rahmstorf, 2009:75-190 cm (model)
…climate scientists have, en masse, become Cassandras —
gifted with the ability to prophesy future disasters, but cursed with the inability to get
anyone to believe them.Paul Krugman, NY Times 09/27/09
Cassandras of Climate
Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
A2A2
B1B1
Nebojša Nakićenović IIASA, Vienna
December-January-February Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
4.0
3.5
IPCC 2007
June-July-August Precipitation Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
-0.1
0.0
IPCC 2007
December-January-February Precipitation Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999
0.0
0.1
IPCC 2007
Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]
Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000
“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Energy intensiveBalanced fuel sourcesMore environmentally friendly
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
Energy intensiveBalanced fuel sourcesMore environmentally friendly
AdaptationCrucial
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
*Estimated from IPCC reports
More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the
first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More variability of summer precipitation (high)
More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but
decreases in the long run (medium)
More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the
first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More variability of summer precipitation (high)
More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but
decreases in the long run (medium)
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
Policy and PlanningPolicy and Planning
Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able
to copeIowa Association of Regional
Councils (Iowa Councils of Government)
Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able
to copeIowa Association of Regional
Councils (Iowa Councils of Government)
Climate Change is a Risk Multiplier
Buildings and Infrastructure Buildings and
Infrastructure Building codes
Be proactive, ahead of the game ISU has only architecture school in Iowa
Water supply Preparation for droughts and floods Water quality as well as quantity
Energy supply Changing seasonal patterns New sources?
Transportation Innovation in public transit (fuels, engines, routes) City planning to minimize travel
Building codes Be proactive, ahead of the game ISU has only architecture school in Iowa
Water supply Preparation for droughts and floods Water quality as well as quantity
Energy supply Changing seasonal patterns New sources?
Transportation Innovation in public transit (fuels, engines, routes) City planning to minimize travel
Image and MarketingImage and Marketing
Ames has image of a progressive community Educated citizenry High citizen involvement Environmental ethic Attractive retirement community
Being progressive and sustainable Attracts green companies and green jobs on the high
technical end Attracts progressive employees to ISU, NADC,
IaDOT, private sector Presents positive image to our many visitors
Ames has image of a progressive community Educated citizenry High citizen involvement Environmental ethic Attractive retirement community
Being progressive and sustainable Attracts green companies and green jobs on the high
technical end Attracts progressive employees to ISU, NADC,
IaDOT, private sector Presents positive image to our many visitors
Planning for Those Least Able to CopePlanning for Those Least Able to Cope
Vulnerability to extreme weatherFloodsDroughtsHeat wavesTornadoes, high winds
Engaging local churches Dialog with Story County communities,
watershed partners
Vulnerability to extreme weatherFloodsDroughtsHeat wavesTornadoes, high winds
Engaging local churches Dialog with Story County communities,
watershed partners
For More InformationFor More Information Contact me directly:
[email protected] Current research on regional climate and climate change is
being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and
nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:
http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Contact me directly:[email protected]
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and
nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:
http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Or just Google Eugene Takle