Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates
:
Indur M. GoklanyIndependent Scholar
http://goklany.orge-mail: [email protected]
Fourth International Climate Change Conference Chicago, IL
May 16–18, 2010
2
Organization of Talk
• Empirical data– Excess winter deaths– Extreme events– Malaria– Hunger, cereal yields, cereal production– Life expectancy
• Ranking GW among other global health risks• Potential death & disease in developing
countries from biofuel production
3
Empirical Data
4
Mortality by Month, Various Industrialized Countries
Source: Falagas et al. (2009)
5
Excess Winter Deaths, Various Developed Countries
Country Excess Winter Deaths Basis
US 108,500 2008Canada 5,644 2006
UK 36,700 12/2008-11/2009 Australia 6,973 1997-2006
New Zealand 1,600 1980-2003 Japan 50,887 2006-07 France 24,938 1995-2006 excluding 2004
Italy 37,498 1950-2007 Spain 23,645 1960-70, 1975-2007
Sweden 4,034 1987-2007 Greece 5,820 1960-2005 Cyprus 317 1996, 1998-2000, 2002-2006
Sources: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009); CANSIM (2009); UKONS (2009); Falagas et al. (2009)
6
Excess Winter Deaths, England & Wales1950/51-2007/08
Source: UKONS (2009)
7
Shrinkage of the distribution of malariaTop: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945
Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007Source: WHO (2008).
8
Chronic hunger in the developing world, 1969–2009(% of population)
Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.
9
Cereal Yields and Production, 1961–2008Least Developed Countries & World
Source: FAO (2010)
10
Reasons for the increase of hungeraccording to FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009
• The 2006-2008 food price crisis• The global economic slowdown• Insufficient investment in agriculture• The increase is not a result of poor crop harvest
Source: http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs/multimedia0/presentation-the-state-of-food-insecurity/en/
11
Global Life Expectancy . Economic Development, and CO2 Emissions, 1760–2007
Source: Goklany (2010)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1760 1810 1860 1910 1960 2010
Life expectancy (yrs)G
DP/c
apita
, Po
pula
tion,
CO
2
GDP/cap (1990 International $)Population (millions)CO2 (MMT-Carbon)Life expectancy (yrs, RH)
12
Ranking Global Warming Among Global Health Risks
Global Health Priorities — 2004 Data
019
0814
06
08
55
20
12
03
01
01
00
916961
644943
443541
2827
2524
2219
14161111
898
75
0 20 40 60 80 100
UnderweightUnsafe sex Alcohol use
Unsafe water, sanitation, …High blood pressure
Tobacco useSub-optimal breastfeeding
High blood glucoseIndoor smoke from solid fuels
Overweight and obesityPhysical inactivity
High cholesterolOccupational risks
Vitamin A deficiencyIron deficiency
Low fruit and vegetable intakeZinc deficiencyIllicit drug use
Unmet contraceptive needChild sexual abuse
Lead exposureUrban outdoor air pollution
Unsafe health care injectionsGlobal climate change
Lost DALYs (millions)
IndustrializedDeveloping
1515
677
5020002
02
10000000
00
6036
2825
2121
232122
2019
1512
109
74432211
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
High blood pressureTobacco use
High blood glucosePhysical inactivity
Overweight and obesityHigh cholesterol
Unsafe sex Alcohol use
UnderweightIndoor smoke from solid fuels
Unsafe water, sanitation, hygieneLow fruit and vegetable intake
Sub-optimal breastfeedingUrban outdoor air pollution
Occupational risksVitamin A deficiency
Zinc deficiencyUnsafe health care injections
Iron deficiencyIllicit drug use
Unmet contraceptive needLead exposure
Global climate changeChild sexual abuse
Deaths (hundred thousands)
IndustrializedDeveloping
Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009) 13
14
Potential Death & Disease in Developing Countries From Biofuel Production
15
Identifying Diseases of Poverty — 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)
Ratio of Low Income to Lower Middle IncomeDeaths per capita Disease Burden per capita
1 Global climate change 13.2 11.92 Underweight 13.1 10.73 Zinc deficiency 9.3 9.04 Vitamin A deficiency 8.9 9.05 Unsafe sex 8.1 7.96 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene 6.1 5.27 Unmet contraceptive need 8.7 4.78 Indoor smoke from solid fuels 1.9 4.79 Sub-optimal breastfeeding 4.1 4.0
10 Iron deficiency 5.1 2.611 Child sexual abuse 1.8 1.812 Lead exposure 1.7 1.613 High cholesterol 1.1 1.314 High blood glucose 1.2 1.115 Unsafe health care injections 0.7 1.116 Physical inactivity 0.9 1.117 Illicit drug use 1.3 1.018 Low fruit and vegetable intake 0.8 0.919 Occupational risks 0.7 0.920 High blood pressure 0.7 0.921 Urban outdoor air pollution 0.5 0.822 Alcohol use 0.6 0.623 Tobacco use 0.6 0.624 Overweight and obesity 0.5 0.6
Death & Disease From Diseases of Poverty — 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)
Risk Factor Lost DALYs (000s) Deaths (000s)
Industrial Developing Industrial Developing
1 Global climate change 3 5,401 0 141
2 Underweight 77 90,606 0 2,225
3 Zinc deficiency 3 15,577 0 433
4 Vitamin A deficiency 1 22,098 0 651
5 Unsafe sex 1,081 68,937 44 2,311
6 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene 174 64,066 7 1,901
Sub-Total (1 through 6) 1,340 266,684 51 7,662
7 Unmet contraceptive need 17 11,485 0 163
8 Indoor smoke from solid fuels 6 41,003 0 1,964
9 Sub-optimal breastfeeding 328 43,514 8 1,239
10 Iron deficiency 572 19,161 8 265
Sub-Total (1 through 10) 2,262 381,847 67 11,294
16
17
Death & Disease in Developing Countriesper Million People in Extreme Poverty
Poverty Headcount (millions)
Threshold Comment Source
2004 969 Old Chen & Ravallion (2007)
2004 1,454* New * New = 1.5 x Old Chen & Ravallion (2008)
In 2004 due to 6 diseases of poverty, according to WHO (2009)
Death & disease rate per million living in extreme poverty
7.7 million deaths 5,270 deaths per million
267 million lost DALYs 183,000 lost DALYs per million
Death & Disease in Developing Countries in 2010Due to Biofuel Production
Poverty Headcount (millions)
Comment Source
2005 1,374 Differences due to country coverage
WB Global Economic Prospects (2009)
2005 1,208 De Hoyos & Medvedev (2009)
2010 798 No biofuel production, Drop due to economic growth
D&M (2009)
2010 +32 Increase due to biofuel production
D&M (2009)
Increase in Deaths = 192,000Increase in Burden of Disease = 6.7 million
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19
Potential Death & Disease due to Biofuel Production and Global Warming
Deaths Burden of Disease
Biofuel Production
(2010)
Global Warming
(2004)
Biofuel Production
(2010)
Global Warming
(2004)
192,000 141,000 6.7 million 5.4 million
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Findings In developed world, more people die in winter, but trend is
downward due to greater wealth and fuel affordability Deaths and death rates from extreme weather events,
malaria, hunger, and other climate sensitive health risks have declined over the long term
Mortality Rates Life Expectancies GW ranks below the top 20 global health problems today,
and will advance only if these other risks are solved first Death and disease from biofuel production more likely to
be real than those estimated due to GW Increased death and disease from biofuel production most
likely exceeds any reductions from reduced GW
21
Conclusions GW or its underlying human causes (if any) have not
increased death and disease in the aggregate. In fact, they are probably responsible for the worldwide
decreases in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy over the last century.
GW policies may already have killed more than they have saved
And may kill even more if they reduce energy use prematurely and/or economic development, particularly for the less well-off
22
THE ENDSupplemental slides follow
23
Daily Mortality by MonthU.S.A., 2001-08
Source: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009)
24
Daily Mortality by MonthCanada, 2001-06
Source: Goklany (2009a) based on CANSIM (2009)
25
Global Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900–2008
Source: Goklany (2009b)
26
Chronic hunger, Worldwide1969/71–2008/09
Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.
27
US Life Expectancy, CO2 Emissions, Consumption and Economic Development, 1900–2006
Source: Goklany (2010)
0102030405060708090100
0123456789
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Metals &
Organica (1900=1)
Life Expectancy (yrs)Po
pula
tion,
Affl
uenc
e, C
O2
(190
0=1) CO2 (LH) Population (LH)
Affluence (LH) Life Exp (RH)Metals (RH) Organics (RH)
28
Contribution of Global Warming to Mortality from Hunger, Malaria & Flooding, 2085
4,385
2,072
6,137
3,134
2,018308
750
228
150
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
A1FI (4.0°C) A2 (3.3°C) B2 (2.4°C) B1 (2.1°C)
1990 2085
mor
talit
y (0
00s)
Δmortality, due to GW mortality, no GW
total2,380
total6,887
total3.362
total2,168
Source: Goklany (2009b)