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March 6, 2017
GAIA-CLIM workshop at ECMWF
Introduction
Erland Källén
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2EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
role is to address the critical and
most difficult research problems in medium-
range NWP that no one country could tackle
on its own
Our mission
European co-operation at its best
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3EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
European co-operation at its best
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4EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Research in Earth System modelling
Global numerical weather forecasts
Supercomputing & data archiving
Education & training programme
EU activities: Copernicus Climate and
Atmosphere Services, EFAS contribution
Deliverables
European co-operation at its best
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5EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Mission-driven science: 40 million observations processed every day
The importance of well-calibrated Observations
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Comparison to other centres
6EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
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7EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
ECMWF Copernicus Services
Surface air temperature anomaly
for 2015 and evolution 1979-
2015. Source: ERA-Interim.
Twice-daily global forecasts up to
5 days of aerosol concentrations
Climate Change (C3S), Atmospheric Monitoring (CAMS),
Flooding Alerts EFAS
Twice-daily multi-model
probabilistic flood forecasts up to
15 days
>50 European forecasting
centres as partners
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8EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Relevance of GAIA-CLIM for ECMWFImproved handling of uncertainty
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9EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Relevance of GAIA-CLIM for ECMWFThe Importance of correcting biases in the observations
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10EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
NWP forecasts are a powerful tool for assessing new satellite data:
MWTS-3 FG DEPARTURES
Relevance of GAIA-CLIM for ECMWFAssessing new satellite observations
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11EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Relevance of GAIA-CLIM for ECMWFThe importance of well-characterised observations
Total FSOI [%] by type of observation
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Aeolus Doppler wind Lidar (launch Dec 2017)
(ESA Earth Explorer Mission)
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Conclusions
•Observations essential input to NWP
•Error characterisation:
• Biases
• Correlations
•Main needs:
• Anchoring observations
• Wind information
13EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
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The strength of a common goal
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Extra slides…
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16EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Relevance of GAIA-CLIM for ECMWF
23 million observations are actively assimilated each cycle
The importance of well-characterised observations
Total FSOI [%] by instrument Total FSOI [%] by type of observation
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17EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Deliverables: a few examples
ENS-Monthly Forecasting System 2mt anomaly
Medium-range
Seasonal Forecast
Global average temperatures Forecast of Aerosols Optical Depth
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18EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
European co-operation at its best: Continuously aiming to improve
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19EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
The importance of well-calibrated Observations
23 million observations assimilated each cycle