Download - Future of Social Games
Future of social
games BrowserGamesForum 2011
Kappuru
Jmaz Photo
MRBill
Lies
Damn lies
Statistics
Predictions Xurble
Social games 2008-2010
#failed
Console racing games 2004-2008 #flatout
Cross promo 150 million MAU #rebelalliance
Stevendepolo
money
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AMagill
Global SNS Gaming Market (US$ in Billions)
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$9.0B
$3.8B
24% CAGR
Advertising
Virtual goods
Source: Lazard Capital Markets
“Facebook is roughly half of this”
ARPU will go up a lot Sh4rp_i Kevin Dooley
ARPU comparison Adjusted for per capita income
Source: Lazard Capital Markets and company reports
But it will get very expensive Zhent_
User acquisition
Content
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Social media advertising 4x in <5 years ! huge increase in competition & prices
Yes, a symphony orchestra soundtrack Soon: 3D? Cloud Gaming?
Competition
Operations
A 24% CAGR market will attract late entrants
Mobile & Social convergence “Pay to play”
Developer & operations talent is scarce and fought over
Metrics, predictives, other operative systems are complex & expensive
Publishing becomes typical
partners ?
The cycle A new platform is born ! Indies run wild ! “HOT HOT HOT!”
Platform becomes successful
Everybody wants in, VCs throw in tons of money
Costs go up, skills become more specialized, success isn’t easy
Winners emerge, market consolidates
VCs bow out (“market’s done”)
Costs are up, distribution is hard, money is scarce
! Publishers enter the market But it is hard to publish a live game. Expect plenty of failures on the way
Guille
Self-publishers will band together
Economies of Scale
Pick one: Succeed together
Go solo, sink alone? Work for hire
Exit the market
Cross promote Retain users
Favorable terms
Robert Nilsson
Interest graph
Social graph meets
Shaniber
Mobage, Gree, Xbox Live on top of Facebook? Avatars vs. real identity?
Real Social?
Anirudh Kouhl
?This could go either way
YES! • Higher ARPU • More engaging • Better retention • PvP makes for great
monetization • Opportunity for browser
game makers?
NO! • Much harder to create • Mini-MMOs worth the
investment? • Do users on Facebook
really care? • Real people are messy • Does a soccer mom
tolerate being griefed?
Wider variety
The drivers of variety
More HC • Tech: Flash 3D, game
streaming
• Mid-core makes more money
• “Get away from Zynga”
• Audience appetite for mid-core, 200M players
• Lots of overlap between console & social gamers
More casual • Core FB audience looks for
bite sized diversions
• Are social games getting a bit too complex for the core FB audience?
• “Just copy Nintendo” Where’s Brain Training?
• “Just copy Big Fish” ! look at Gardens of Time
Lucy Nieto
Social, mobile, Mobile social… It’s all the same
Identical audience, games, monetization
HTML5 + WebGL everywhere
Multi-screen games/IP
Facebook wins app discovery game for mobile
Google+ embedded into Android (already)
Need to play in social & mobile to be a true winner
Lucy Nieto
Zynga vs. Nexon vs. Gree vs. DeNA vs. late entrants
Battle of the
giants
Mobile gaming
SNS gaming
Online gaming
Console
Bring your popcorn, it’s going to be epic
Public companies with $ billions in war chests
Grudge match between DeNA & Gree
Zynga: “win mobile at any cost”
Core publishers can’t ignore stagnant revenue
vs. >20% CAGR ScypaxPictures
Awesome time to be in games!
Kristina Alexanderson