Download - Future Challenges Population
Future ChallengesPopulation
Students Learn about• current and future population trends:• growth rates, age structure and spatial
distribution DONE in population unit• government population policies to
manage population growth • implications of population trends:• ecological sustainability • population movement and urban planning
Students Learn to• identify and discuss government
population policies:• growth rates DONE • Refugees DONE• migration DONE• analyse current and future
population trends and their implications
Describe the current trends in Australia’s population
growth. • Australia’s population is currently growing at its fastest
rate in almost 20 yrs. Australia’s population is currently growing at its fastest rate in almost 20 yrs with the most recent increase of 1.5% or 318,500 people to September 2007
• The federal Government’s baby bonus had helped lift the nation's fertility rate from a record low of 1.73 in 2001 to 1.81 in the latest census in 2006
• The Government is encouraging migrants because of the skills shortage.
• China and India are becoming increasingly important contributors to our migrant intake.
• Net overseas migration contributed 56% to the total population growth which translates to a record net 177,600 migrating to Australia.
Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947
to 2005Source: ABS 1986 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Num
ber
Net Migration
Natural Increase
Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2004 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins
Expectation of Life at BirthMales Females
1947 66.1 70.62004 78.1 83.0
Expectation of Life from Birth 1920 to 2051
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Years1920-
22
Years1932-
34
Years1946-
48
Years1953-
55
Years1960-
62
Years1970-
72
Years1980-
82
Years1990-
92
Year1998
Year2005
Year2041
Year2051
Years (Red are projections only)
ABS: Deaths - 3302.0 - 1920-98
Expe
ctat
ion
of L
ife fr
om B
irth
(Yea
rs)
Females Males
Expectation of Life at BirthMales Females
1947 66.1 70.62004 78.1 83.0
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2004Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues
Australia: Annual Migration, 1850-2005Source: Price 1979; Hugo 1986; ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures
Bulletins; DIMA 2000, 2002; DIMIA Movements Data Base
From Pyramid to CoffinChanging Age Structure of the Australian Population, 1925-2045
Source: Productivity Commission 2005
ABS Labour force projections 3222.0
Population projections
Australia’s Population Issues
• Numbers of People
• Age Structure – Ageing
• Distribution
Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population
Source: ABS
Number by Age
Year 0-14 15-64 65+65+ as
% 15-64
2003 3,981,538 13,344,685
2,546,423
19.1
2011 3,840,000 14,532,900
3,155,600
21.7
2021 3,752,700 15,172,300
4,443,400
29.3
2031 3,826,400 15,348,100
5,741,000
37.4
Annual Growth Rate (%)2003-11 -0.45 1.07 2.722011-21 -0.23 0.43 3.482021-31 +0.19 0.12 2.60
Planning Implications: The National Level
Projections of Commonwealth Demographic Spending (Percent of GDP)
Source: Costello, 2002, 59
Policy ImplicationsHow Can the Effects of Ageing be
Offset?• Need to increase productivity
• Role of immigration, especially in short term
• Increase age at retirement
• Increase participation rates at younger ages
Implications of population trends
• Very debatable • Some economists/politicians believe that
Australia’s population growth will result in resource creation, and economic growth and that technology will be able to overcome the environmental problems created by the increase in population.
• In contrast, some scientists/ ecologists believe that
population growth will only worsen the problems of resource depletion , water availability and quality, land degradation, pollution and habitat loss.
• Australia has little chance of altering its population growth rate by natural means in the near future, but is can decide on the number of immigrants allowed to enter the country.
• Without an immigration intake Australia’s population would grow very slowly and may even start to decline.
• Economists argue that this would limit Australia’s economic potential and result in a decline in living standards.
Population and Environment
There are real environmental constraints on population growth in Australia.
• Water
• Soil and Land
• Global warming – Greenhouse Gases
• Biodiversity
• Pollution
Implications of population trends: Ecological sustainability
• There are environmental constraints on population growth in Australia
• Little is known of the relationship between population and environment and there is a need for an evidence base to inform policy
• Australia needs a population policy
Population change in Australia should be compatible with sustainable development
- meet basic needs of all citizens- give all citizens opportunity to develop
and realise their individual potential- should not endanger the natural
systems that support life on earth
Australia’s Population Policy Should Aim at Working Towards:
• Achieving a stable population with a balance between working and non-working age groups.
• Enhancing the productivity of the population.
• Achieving a spatial distribution of the population which is compatible with long-term sustainability, economic efficiency and social wellbeing.
Conclusion• Population and ageing issues in Australia is
manageable.
• Not as extreme as Europe or Japan.
• There is a breathing space period to put policies in place to successfully confront ageing.
Population Movement and urban planning
• ABC podcast 20 Oct 2008• http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/a
udio/pm/200810/20081020-pm07-sydney2036.mp3
• http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2396385.htm Accompanying transcript