ClimateandCongress:TheMakingofaCitizen
FromApathytoAction
CSTPRNoontimeSeminarOctober25,2017GrantCouch
AGENDA
• PersonalBackground• ClimateEducation• PossibleSolution &Path• PoliticalEducation/AppreciatingtheSystem• BecomingaCitizen• Takeaways
COUNTRYHOME…
What,meworry?
ClimateEducation/UnderstandingtheIssue(s)
• SCIENCE?
Image Credit: NASA's Earth Observatory
ATTRIBUTESofaGOODCLIMATEPOLICY
• CREATESSIGNIFICANTREDUCTIONSINGhGEMISSIONS• OFFSETSTHEREGRESSIVENATUREOFHIGHERENERGYCOSTS• INCREASESU.S.EMPLOYMENTANDECONOMYW/OGROWINGTHEGOVERNMENT• BUSINESSFRIENDLY§MAINTAINSAMERICA’SGLOBALLEADERSHIPROLLW/OREQUIRINGANINTERNATIONALAGREEMENT
PROPOSEDSOLUTION
REVENUE-NEUTRALPRICEONCO2
Placeafeeonfossilfuelsatthesource(mine,wellorport).
Returnalloftherevenuetohouseholdsequally.
Aborderadjustmentongoodsimportedfromorexportedtocountrieswithoutanequivalentpriceoncarbon.
2
1
3
Revenue-NeutralPriceonCO2:CarbonFeeandDividend– “CF&D”
CITIZENSCLIMATELOBBY/CF&DDETAILSFEEONCARBON§ STARTSAT$10/METRICTONOFCO2§ ESCALATES$10EVERYYEARTHROUGHTHE2030s§ ATPOINTOFEXTRACTION(WELLORMINE)&PORTOFENTRY
DIVIDEND
100%OFREVENUESRAISEDAREDISTRIBUTEDTOALLAMERICANHOUSEHOLDS.
BORDERADJUSTMENT(EXPORTS&IMPORTS)
PREVENTSTHEEXPORTOFPOLLUTIONANDJOBS
ECONOMICIMPACTofCF&D
• 52%REDUCTIONINCO2EMISSIONS
• ADDITIONAL$70BIL/YRINU.S.GDP
• ADDITIONAL2+MMU.S.JOBS/YRBY10TH YR
• DIVIDENDS“PROTECT”70+%OFAMERICANHOUSEHOLDS
Source:REMI- RegionalEconomicModels,Inc.
THEPATHTOPASSAGE:
.NON-PARTISAN
.85,000VOLUNTEERMEMBERS
.TRAINEDTOLOBBY&OUTREACH
.REPRESENTEDINALL435CONGRESSIONALDISTRICTS
POLITICALEDUCATION:APPRECIATINGTHESYSTEM
"Americansarepolarizedintheworstpossibleway— twotribesnotsomuchunitedbylovefortheirownashatredfortheother."
DavidFrench- NationalReview
TWOPERCEPTIONS
ADIFFERENTSCIENCE
DifferentWorldviews
Source:CulturalCognitionandPublicPolicybyDanM.KahanandDonaldBraman
Hierarchist/Authoritarian
Egalitarian
Solidarist/CommunitarianIndividualist
POLITICALHISTORY- NOTALWAYSTHUS…
• Nixon>EPA– 1970
• Reagan>MontrealProtocol– 1988
• S.1610- GlobalClimateChangePreventionActof1989–sponsoredbyClaudineSchneider(R– RI)w/bi-partisanco-sponsors
CURRENTPOLITICALREALITY• LOUD• Hoax/China/“CleanCoal”/DefundEPA
•QUIET• ClimateLeadershipCouncil(Shultz,Bakeretal)• Bi-partisanHouseClimateSolutionsCaucus• RepublicanHouseClimateResolution(H.Res.195)• DoD– DefenseSecretaryMattis• SecofState,Tillerson
THEFUNDEMENTALPOLITICALPROBLEM?
Top10PriorityIssues,byPartyIdentification“HowimportantisittoyouthatthepresidentandCongressdealwitheachofthefollowingissuesinthenextyear?”
Priority Democrat/Democrat leaners(%) Republican/RepublicanLeaners(%)
1 Economy(91) Economy (88)
2 Education(91) Terrorism(77)
3 Povertyandhomelessness(82) Militaryanddefense(76)
4 Healthcarepolicy(79) Healthcarepolicy(75)
5 SocialSecurityandMedicare(77) Education(70)
6 Distributionofincome/wealth (72) Taxes(69)
7 Crime (71) SocialSecurityandMedicare(67)
8 Environment(71) Crime(65)
9 Terrorism(68) Immigration(54)
10 Gunpolicy(64) Worldaffairs(53)
MoodoftheNation
Survey,2014
%ExtremelyorVeryimportant
1,018adults,livinginall50U.S.states&
D.C.
25
Butthereishope…
…theMillennialsarecoming
TOTAL MEN WOMEN1)Fixingpublicschools 58% 50% 65%2)Promotingcleanenergy 50% 51% 50%3)ReducingtheNat’ldebt 49% 47% 50%4)Payequalityforwomen 48% 37% 59%5)Addressingpoverty 47% 45% 49%6)Studentloanreform 42% 50% 65%
Top6IssuesMillennial’swantSupportedbyanyCandidates
Source:CollegeRepublicanNationalCommittee– MillennialSurveyJune2016- www.millennial.gop
Source:CollegeRepublicanNationalCommittee– MillennialSurveyJune2016- www.millennial.gop
TOTAL MEN WOMEN1)Racialandgenderequality 14 7 72)Newwaystopayforcollege 13 7 63)Raisingteachersalariesandschoolfunding 12 7 5
4)Reducingincomeinequality 9 6 35)Makingiteasiertomoveupoutofpoverty 9 2 7
6)Takingactiontoaddressclimatechange 9 4 4
Top Six Desired Political Party Attributes
SCIENCEORRISKMANAGEMENT?
• WHATWECAN“ACCEPT”ISDIFFERENTFROMWHATWE“SHOULD”KNOW
• ANDWHATCANWE“KNOW”FORSURE?
The“FATTAIL”– The“BLACKSWAN”
What,meworry?
TAKEAWAYS
• BasicRiskManagementcallsforActionandthereisa“nocost”solution• AstrongAmericaneconomyandenvironmentalqualityarenotmutuallyexclusive• CompatiblewithbothRepublicanandDemocratprinciples
www.CitizensClimateLobby.org /CitizensClimateLobby
REFERENCESLIDES
MoralFoundation— 6BuildingBlocksLiberty/Oppression:theloathingoftyrannyCare/Harm:cherishing&protectingothersFairness/Cheating:renderingjusticeaccordingtosharedrulesLoyalty/Betrayal:standingwithyourgroup,family,nationAuthority/Subversion:obeyingtradition&legitimateauthoritySanctity/Degradation: abhorrencefordisgustingactions,things,foods
Source:TheRighteousMindbyJonathanHaidt
MoralFoundations
37
Fairness
CareAuthoritySanctityLoyalty
MoralFoundationsQuestionnaire
FairnessCare
BenefitsofDividendstoUSHouseholds
• UMassAmherstMay2017• dividendsprotectthepurchasingpowerof89%ofthoseinthebottomhalfofthedistribution
• USTreasuryAnalysisJan2017• Bottom70%ofAmericanscomeoutaheadunderacarbondividendsprogram
• InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis– Feb2016• 58%ofAmericanscomeoutaheadwithnearly90%ofthehouseholdslivingbelowtheFederalPovertyLevelbenefitingfromthepolicy
T RE A SU RY A N A L Y SIS
A ccording tothisrecent ana ly sis fromtheTreasury Department ,thebot tom70% ofAmericanscomeout aheadunder a ca rbondiv idendsprog ram.
T RE A SU RY A N A L Y SIS
A ccording tothisrecent ana ly sis fromtheTreasury Department ,thebot tom70% ofAmericanscomeout aheadunder a ca rbondiv idendsprog ram.
T RE A SU RY A N A L Y SIS
A ccording tothisrecent ana ly sis fromtheTreasury Department ,thebot tom70% ofAmericanscomeout aheadunder a ca rbondiv idendsprog ram.
ANALYSISREMI- RegionalEconomicModels,Inc.
• non- partisaneconomicmodelinggroup• respected- andused- bybothsidesoftheaisleandtheUSgovernment
http://dv7gcmvxe5e8l.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/The-Economic-Climate-Fiscal-Power-and-Demographic-Impact-of-a-National-Fee-and-Dividend-Carbon-Tax-6.9.14.pdf
ARGUMENTSAGAINSTPRICINGCO2
• DKhowmuchGWiscausedbyman,orauniversallyacceptedSCC• OtherGWcontributorsarebig(i.e.landuse)• DKhowmuchpricingcarbonwouldhelpGWorcorrectemissionpath• Disruptionofestablishedindustries/jobs• Hurtslowincome(w/odividend)
3 PRICINGSOLUTIONS:
§ CAP&TRADE(EMISSIONSTRADING)
§ REVENUE-NEUTRAL– DIVIDENDMODEL
§ REVENUE-NEUTRAL– INCOMETAXOFFSETMODEL
REVENUE-NEUTRALPRICE(RNP)vs.C&T&CPPPOSITIVECONSEQUENCES
CONSEQUENCE\POLICY RNP C&T CPP*.Coverseachpointofconsumption-eachsourceofGhG YES NO NO
.Preventsexportofpollutionandjobs YES NO NO
.Transparent&Predictable YES** NO NO
.IncreasesUSeconomy&jobs YES NO NO
.Easilyreplicableinternationally YES NO NO
.Allowsforreducedregulations YES NO NO
.Consistentnationalpolicy YES YES Depends
*Stand-inforanyregulations**Ideallyit’salsogradual
REVENUE-NEUTRALPRICEvs.C&T&CPPAVOIDEDNEGATIVECONSEQUENCES
CONSEQUENCE\POLICY RNP C&TCPP
Growthingovernmentoversight®ulation NO YES YES
Opportunityforcorruptioninweakerinternationalstates NO YES N/A*
Opportunityformarketmanipulation NO YES NO
*Notreplicableinternationally
REVENUE-NEUTRALITYOPTIONSHouseholdDividendvsIncomeTaxOffset
EFFECT\POLICY DIVIDEND ITOGreateracceptanceontheright(S/Tviability) NO YES
Lastingconstituency(L/Tviability) YES NO
Offsetregressivenatureofhigherenergyprices YES NO
L/TRevenueNeutrality? YES NOGreaterincreaseinGDP* NO YES
*BothincreaseGDP