US Airfare Trend Report

Week of January 19, 2015

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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Welcome back to FLYR’s US Airfare Trend Report. FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports. Steady Travels, FLYR Research

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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About this data We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing January 24, 2015 to February 20, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis. These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending January 17, 2015. Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

Notes: Immediately, you’ll notice that fare decreases are fairly widespread during this period. Don’t get your hopes up too soon, however…

Notes: While the fare drops were rather extensive, the magnitude of the shifts was far more subdued. In the case of Hawaiian Airlines, the median fare drop was less than $1, suggesting a very slight shift in one of the ancillary components of the comprehensive airfare (we base our calculations on airfares inclusive of all taxes, fees, etc.)

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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Notes: No surprises here, as we see dramatically more airports with a higher proportion of price drops.

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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Notes: …and similarly for the destination-based data. What makes this particular week interesting is how smooth the bars are — these are not outlier moves.

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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Notes: We see an old favorite — Wilmington, NC — again topping the list of the most dramatic fare hikes. However, the top four on this list are all from single data points. So among the roughly half million data points that we present within this report, the $531 represents the single largest shift for any fare in this cohort.

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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Notes: You can see that the median drops presented are much lower than the corresponding figures among fare increases, due to the much larger group of flights with fare drops.

Flights departing January 24, 2015 – February 20, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 17, 2015

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Trends Among 25 Major Airport Routes (by tracked non-stop volume)

Notes: The Dallas to Chicago route is still one with the most dramatic shift as fares get into the 14-day window prior to departure. This period, we saw that an amazing 33% of fares on that route went up, by a median of $242! On the other hand, the ATL-DFW route looks far more easygoing as departure dates approach, with a 44% rate of decrease by a median of a not-insignificant $164.

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© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:

Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. andrew@getflyr.com 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080