Download - Ecosystem Response to Climate Change

Ecosystem Response to Climate Change

Big question:

How is the place you care about

vulnerable to climate change?

Considering Climate Change

What’s actually changed?

Warmer Temperatures

Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)

• Temperature has increased 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895 in the US– Greater increases in the north

– Greater increases in recent decades

Altered Precipitation

Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA), glisa.umich.edu

• Changes variable by geography and season– More extreme rainfall events, especially in the east

Annual precipitation

Extreme precipitation

Sea-level Rise

• Sea level rose about 1 foot since 1900

• Increases in coastal flooding

Adapted from J. Boothroyd, Univ. of Rhode Island www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide

Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge

Increased about 10”

over last 100 years

Other Observed Changes

Warmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)

Altered Soil Temperature and Frost

Fewer soil frost days

Altered freeze-thaw cycles

Longer Growing Seasons

Arrive weeks earlierMore days with leaves

Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)

And Everything Else

Climate is not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it.

Shifley et al. 2014

How is the climate expected to change over the next century?

Future Changes: Inherent Uncertainty

IPCC 2007, Graphic: C. Wake, Univ. New HampshireFigure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)

Warmer Temperatures

• Temperature rises of 3.0°F and greater

– Greater increases in the north

– Greater increases with higher emissions

– More extreme hot

– Less extreme cold

Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)

Annual Temperature

Altered precipitation

• Greater uncertainty

– Winter: wetter in northern regions


Winter Precipitation

Altered precipitation

• Greater uncertainty

– Winter: wetter in northern regions

– Summer: uncertain, but potentially drier due to warmer temperatures

– More extreme events


Summer Precipitation

Drier Conditions

Figures: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) and Wehner et al. 2011 (adapted for NCA)

Consecutive Dry Days

Extreme Drought

Sea-level Rise

• Continued increases of multiple feet

• Enhanced storm surge

Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast

Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/

How could ecosystems be affected?

Increased Carbon Dioxide

Image: www.science.howstuffworks.com


Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2

– Increased photosynthesis

– Increased water use efficiency

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011


Opportunity: Increased productivity*

– Increased photosynthesis

– Increased water use efficiency

*Effect likely limited:

– Limited sink strength

– Interactions with nitrogen

– Ozone damage

– Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011


Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons

• Evidence of phenological shifts

• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks

Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth

Melillo et al. 2014 (NCA), Nelson Center 2014


Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons

• Evidence of phenological shifts

• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks

Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth

Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality

• Early bud break/loss of cold hardening

• Frost damage during spring freezing

Shorter Winter = Less Snow

Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth

30-70% decreases in snowfall in eastern US by end of century

Figure: Notaro et al. 2014; https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/

Low emissions High emissions

Shorter Winter = Less Snow

Challenge: Decreased snowpack

• Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps

• Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes

• Altered soil water recharge

Campbell et al. 2009, Groffman et al. Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015

Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain

Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain

Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain

Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain

Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount

• Earlier spring peak flows

• Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows

• Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow

Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip

Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip

Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Warmer temps increase water loss

Changes in Habitat Suitability

Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species

Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species


Habitat based on:

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Elevation

• Latitude

• Soils

• Slope & Aspect

• Land use

• Competition

• Management


Habitat based on:

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Elevation

• Latitude

• Soils

• Slope & Aspect

• Land use

• Competition

• Management

Climate Change Atlas:What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes?•134 Trees•147 Birds

Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas

Changes in Habitat Suitability2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Current DistributionImportance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

Sugar Maple


Changes in Habitat Suitability2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Current DistributionImportance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

White Oak



Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species

Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

• Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future

• Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback

• Mature and established trees should fare better

• Immense lags to occupy habitats

• Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance

Extreme Events

Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events

• Heavy precipitation

• Ice storms

• Heat waves/droughts

• Wind storms

• Hurricanes

• “Events” are not well modeled

VTRANS/VT ANR

NY DEC

Dan Turner,Cambridge Fire Dept.

Interactions: Wildfire

Clark et al. 2014

Challenge: Increased wildfire potential

Figure: K. Hayhoe 2013 (NCA)

Interactions: Wildfire

Fire may increase:• Warmer/drier summers• Increased stress or

mortality from less suitable conditions

• Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines

Fire may not change:• Spring/early summer moisture• Current regeneration of more

mesic species• Land use and fragmentation• Fire suppression

Clark et al. 2014

Challenge: Increased wildfire potential

Interactions: Insects and Disease

Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility

Direct:

• Pests migrating northward

• Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures

• Accelerated lifecycles

Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007

Hemlock woolly adelgid lethal temp: -20 to -30°F

Challenge: Increased pests and forest diseases

Figure: NCA

Interactions: Invasive Plants

Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success

Direct:

• Expanded ranges under warmer conditions

• Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2

Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)

Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants

Interactions: Unexpected Responses

Figure (white box): Northern Rockies Fire Science Network

Human actions

Effects on Ecosystems

Generally Challenges

• Reduced growth: moisture stress

• Decline of northern/boreal species

• Disturbance from extreme events

• Wildfire potential

• Forests pests & disease

• Invasive species

Generally Opportunities

• Increased productivity: longer growing season

• Increased productivity: more CO2

• Increased habitat for some species

What would you add?

Local Considerations

Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions make the difference.

Download - Ecosystem Response to Climate Change

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