Contributions
• Excellent up-to-date and detailed summary of challenges facing the Chinese economy
• Useful policy recommendations
• Special chapters on firm dynamism and sharing the benefits of growth
Comments on Key Issues
• Growth targets
• State-owned enterprises
• Service sector growth
• Building inclusivity
Major Occupation College and Employment Shares
super_code college_share_2000 employ_share_2000 college_share_2015 employ_share_2015 delta_employ_0015 delta_college_0015
Top managers 0.35 0.05 0.40 0.03 -0.02 0.05
Professionals 0.41 0.16 0.63 0.15 -0.01 0.22
Office workers 0.18 0.17 0.32 0.16 -0.01 0.14
Sales and services 0.04 0.23 0.14 0.32 0.09 0.10
Agriculture 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.04
Operators (manuf) 0.02 0.38 0.07 0.33 -0.05 0.04
Share-shift decomposition results:Change in demand for college workers 2000-2015:
-1.1% from change in employment structure10.2% from within-occupation increase
Change in demand for college workers 2010-2015:0.8% from change in employment structure (1.5% increase in professionals)2.3% from within-occupation increase
College and Employment Sharesby Major Sector
college_share_2000 employ_share_2000 college_share_2015 employ_share_2015 delta_employ_0015 delta_college_0015
Construction/mining 0.07 0.12 0.11 0.15 0.02 0.05
Manufacturing 0.06 0.35 0.12 0.27 -0.08 0.07
Services 0.19 0.53 0.29 0.58 0.06 0.10
Share-shift decomposition results:Change in demand for college workers 2000-2015:
0.8% from change in employment structure8.4% from within-sector increase
Decomposing College Demand in32 Service Subsectors
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
2000-2015 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
Structural change Within-sector
Comments on Inclusive Growth
• China has focused on goals of universal coverage for many programs– Result: multiple overlapping programs with differential
treatment
• Problem: uneven treatment and enforcement undermines not only equity but also efficiency goals– Uneven playing field
– Internally incompatible
• Priorities:– Harmonizing programs
– Realistic design that can be enforced