OECD Economic Surveys: China 2017Discussant Comments

Albert Park

HKUST

Contributions

• Excellent up-to-date and detailed summary of challenges facing the Chinese economy

• Useful policy recommendations

• Special chapters on firm dynamism and sharing the benefits of growth

Comments on Key Issues

• Growth targets

• State-owned enterprises

• Service sector growth

• Building inclusivity

Change in Occupational Employment Shares by 2005 Wage Percentile

Major Occupation College and Employment Shares

super_code college_share_2000 employ_share_2000 college_share_2015 employ_share_2015 delta_employ_0015 delta_college_0015

Top managers 0.35 0.05 0.40 0.03 -0.02 0.05

Professionals 0.41 0.16 0.63 0.15 -0.01 0.22

Office workers 0.18 0.17 0.32 0.16 -0.01 0.14

Sales and services 0.04 0.23 0.14 0.32 0.09 0.10

Agriculture 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.04

Operators (manuf) 0.02 0.38 0.07 0.33 -0.05 0.04

Share-shift decomposition results:Change in demand for college workers 2000-2015:

-1.1% from change in employment structure10.2% from within-occupation increase

Change in demand for college workers 2010-2015:0.8% from change in employment structure (1.5% increase in professionals)2.3% from within-occupation increase

College and Employment Sharesby Major Sector

college_share_2000 employ_share_2000 college_share_2015 employ_share_2015 delta_employ_0015 delta_college_0015

Construction/mining 0.07 0.12 0.11 0.15 0.02 0.05

Manufacturing 0.06 0.35 0.12 0.27 -0.08 0.07

Services 0.19 0.53 0.29 0.58 0.06 0.10

Share-shift decomposition results:Change in demand for college workers 2000-2015:

0.8% from change in employment structure8.4% from within-sector increase

Decomposing College Demand in32 Service Subsectors

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2000-2015 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015

Structural change Within-sector

Comments on Inclusive Growth

• China has focused on goals of universal coverage for many programs– Result: multiple overlapping programs with differential

treatment

• Problem: uneven treatment and enforcement undermines not only equity but also efficiency goals– Uneven playing field

– Internally incompatible

• Priorities:– Harmonizing programs

– Realistic design that can be enforced

• Provides thought leadership on

business and policy challenges in

emerging economies

• 40+ Faculty Associates

• Founded in 2013 with support

from EY

iems.ust.hk

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