HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
Date:1-May-2020-
HUM CONSULTANCY: Founder and CEO Haresh Bha�a.
Our Pillar for Selec�ng and Inves�ng any Asset Class.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
April Monthly News La�er-2020
India’s Digital Journey for Next Decade started by Covid-19.
Index of News Le�er April-2020
• Indian Macro Economics Data analysis: Coming Months
we have many macro data, like India GDP of just 2% per
IMF projec�on.
• Ni�y in the month April-2020 recover from 24-3-2020
low of 7511 to �ll 9850 level. What next for ni�y-may-
2020.
• Mater Stroke by Mr Mukesh Ambani for RIL-Jio and
Facebook Deal worth of 43750 Cr for 9.99 stake in Jio
Pla�orm.
• India Pharma sector outlook- what will be new future of
Indian Pharma sector a�er 5 year of underperformance.
• Gold Outlook for 2020 as Investment or Profit Booking?
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
Indian Macro Economics Data analysis: Coming Months we
have many macro data, like India GDP of just 2% per IMF
projec�on.
· All macro data Publish by Govt that was already
done.But Stock market is always look Future Growth
· IN India Every year 200000 People Die due to road
accident and other construc�on ac�vi�es, But due to
Lock down of all these people save life by not going
out.
· Covid -19 Mostly affected the people above age of 60,
India has just 5% of People out 1.3 Billion people
above 60 Age.
· Top 5 central Govt USA, European,Japan ,Asian has
given $ 7 Trillion Doller package in last 2 months.
· All over the world has now only Zero to -0.5 Interest
Rate, RBI has cut 0.75 Interest Rate in last two
months.
· India GDP was in March 2019- is INR 2.8 Trillion, a�er
Lock down that GDP will fall to INR 1.8 Trillion. Which
will be top 5 Posi�on in the world of 220 countries.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
· Indian Banking System Has Surplus INR 7,00,000 crore
from Rate cute and Other liquidity support from RBI.
· RBI $480 Billion Reserve, RBI will make profit of INR
48000 crore for $1 deprecia�on of from 74 to 75.
· Indian Import- Electronics, Crude, Gold.
· Every 1 $ Reduc�on in crude oil, India will save INR
11,000 Cr, $40 fall in Crude oil India saved on INR
4,40,000 Crore which will be u�lised for poor people
by Indian Government.
· India will become current account surplus from
current account deficit.
· India has 80 million tonne of food reserve with food
corpora�on of India, which is u�lized for through PDC
or ra�on shop for poor people from last one month.
· India has 3 Types of People-Government-Corporate-
Consumer. Corporate and consumer is just saving.
Only Government of India will do spending.
Warren Buffet Indicator for Inves�ng in Equity
Market For 5 Year above is Market Cap to GDP which
just 60 % as on April-2020 for Indian Market.
Ni�y and Sensex Outlook for Next few Months
Ni�y Weekly Chart-30-4-2020
Data Source: Spider So�ware
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
Index Weightage By Sector Wise
Ni�y-50 Weightage 31/03/2020
Financial Services 36.51
Informa�on Technology 15.1
Consumer Goods 14.56
Oil and Gas 12.44
Automobile 4.53
Telecom 3.13
Construc�on 2.79
Pharma 2.72
Metal 2.52
Power 2.28
Cement 2.22
Services 0.54
Others 0.85
Data Source: Nse India
Indian Market in April-2020 30 April 2020 31 March 2020 % Change
Sensex 33717 29815 13%
Ni�y 9859 8596 15%
Ni�y Bank 21534 19144 12%
Ni�y-500 8012.90 6996 15%
Ni�y-Mid-Cap 13502.00 11703 15%
Ni�y-Small-Cap 4078.00 3594 13%
Ni�y Technology 14108.35 12763 11%
Ni�y-Energy 13154.70 11125 18%
Ni�y FMGC 28669.30 27319 5%
Ni�y Auto 5901.40 4731 25%
Ni�y Pharma 9327.10 7176 30%
Ni�y Metal 1859.90 1585 17%
NIFTY Realty 187.30 175 7% Data Source: Spider So�ware
India has started the digital journey for next decade from
April-2020 due to Covid-19, Global event. Big Boy by Market
capitalisa�on of Ni�y and Sensex Reliance Industries Ltd - Its
Subsidiaries JIO PLATFORM with FACEBOOK. Facebook has
purchased 9.99 stake in Jio Pla�orm For INR 43747 Crore.
Indian central bank has done Interest Rate cut by .75bps and
injected the liquidity of 5 Lakh crore through Easy monetary
policy. Market s�ll wait for more measure through fiscal
policy from Govt of India for various sectors of Indian
economy.
Indian Market (Ni�y-50) is up 9859 (15%) and BSE Sensex
33717 (13%) in the month of April-2020. Ni�y has formed
low of 9958 in March-2018 and 10586-10600 in September-
2019.BSE Sensex had formed Low of 32483 in March-18 and
36105 in September-2019.
Coming month ni�y will face hurdle or CAP on Upside at
9950-10000, If 10000 crossed than we have 10586 to 10750.
On Downside Ni�y 8600-9000 Very Good Level Support for
Buying for fresh investment in coming months
Coming month BSE Sensex will face hurdle or CAP on Upside
at 33291-33500,If 34000 crossed than we have 36100 to
36400.
On Downside Sensex 29700-30600 Very Good Support Level
for Buying for fresh investment in coming months
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
About Reliance Industries Ltd-From-1975-2020. From
Tex�le -Oil Gas-Retail-Telecom- Digital Leader.
Mater Stroke by Mr Mukesh Ambani
RIL-Jio and Facebook Deal worth of 43750 Cr for 9.99 stake in
Jio Pla�orm, with this deal JIO valua�on become INR 450000
CR out of total Market Cap of 929000 CR. Jio is almost half of
market cap Reliance Industries Ltd.
Facebook Will have 300Millin Indian user- What up has 400
Million ac�ve Indian user, Instagram Has 1500 Million Ac�ve
user,Jio has 3800 Million subscribers Indian.
Reliance Jio Pla�orms Limited
(Access to Digital Revolu�on to 1.2 Billion People)
· Since Sept-2016-RIL-Jio is part of Every Indian Family
· RIL- Jio has given access Digital Access to Many Indian
who has earlier not part of India Growth Story
· RIL-Jio Rural India has access to Internet with Just-
INR-100 P.M
· RIL-Jio Rural Indian children's access for Educa�on
through Internet
· RIL-Jio Rural Indian Farmers has access to New
Farming technique through Inter
· RIL-Jio Rural Indians to access be�er Health care
service.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
March-2019-Sales from Digital and Retail is 25 % v/s to 5% in 2016
Sales-2019 Amount Core Margin
Refining 3,93,988 5%
Petrochemicals 1,72,065 19%
Organized Retail 1,30,566 4%
Digital Services 48,660 18%
Others 22,151 6%
Oil and Gas 5,005 -28%
51%
22%
17%
6% 3% 1%
Sales-2019
Refining
Petrochemicals
Organized Retail
Digital Services
Others
Oil and Gas
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
Future Growth Engine is Digital
• RIL started journey from Tex�le and Polyester in 1970 to
1990
• By 2000 he quickly shi�ed through acquisi�on Indian
Petrochemical industry to Jamnagar Refinery.
• By 2016 RIL started Telecom Opera �on with JIO and he
know digital is future of growth for next 10 to 20 year.
• Now Jio and Facebook started journey of digital India for
1.3 Billion people with Mul� fold growth for all of us in
next decade.
• AS on March-2019-RIL-Profits is 40000 Cr with this any
one will can be just guess profit figure on 2030.
• Reliance will save Interest of 8000 Cr which will increase
profit figure, from Jio stake sale 43750 Crore and 50000
crore right issue.
• Next Few year India will have big Tech Company called
JIO.Like Alibaba in China, Google,Amazon,Microso�,
from United State.
Data source: From Annual Report and Company Exchange filling for Jio and Facebook Details.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
India Pharma sector outlook
what will be new future of Indian Pharma sector a�er 5
year of underperformance?
Pharma index has broken Monthly posi�ve close a�er 5
year of downward from 14000 to 6300 level.
This has trend changed from long term prospec�ve.
On Upside pharma Index can upto 11000 to 12500 level in
next two year �me.
On downside 8600-8800 is very good level for Pharma
Mutual Investment opportunity. Now Fundamental also
suppor�ve.
Individual stocks can be very risky to due US FDA approval
many other risk in the business.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
Indian Pharma Sector Listed Inclusion:
• Hospital
• Diagnosis Company or Pathology Centre for tes�ng
• Medicine Company
• Formula�on Companies –Contract Manufacturing
• Insurance Sector-Heath Insurance Sector
Policy Support: Govt ini�a�ve: “Pharma Vision 2020” to
make India a global leader in manufacturing.
• India has established itself as a global manufacturing
and research hub in pharmaceu�cal space.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
• India contributes around 10% of the world produc�on
volume.
• Around 70% of its revenue comes from sale of generic
drugs, of which around 50% comes from exports.
• Indian Pharma companies have two dis�nct
businesses.
• Domes�c business contributes significantly and is
growing at double digit.
• Indian Pharmaceu�cal Companies have equally
important and growing exports business.
• The cost of se�ng up a produc�on plant in India is 40
per cent lower than in Western countries. Labour costs
are 50–55% cheaper than in Western countries.
• India has the 2nd largest number of USFDA-approved
manufacturing plants outside the US, with 2633 FDA-
Approved Drug Products.
Why it has Up 25% so much in two week Because of Under
Ownership by Many Investor.
• Foreign Ins�tu�on Investor
• Many Index Equity Fund - Due to just low Weightage in
Ni�y-50 Index V/S Bank Weightage-36 %
• Many PMS Fund Manager
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
• Global ETF Investor Due to just 2.75 V/S Bank
Weightage-36 %
• Many Individual And HNI Investor
Pharma Sector Weight Increase in coming Year in Ni�y-50
• Due to Covid-19 Many companies will faced earning
decline From Banking, IT, NBFC sector
• Pharma Sector Earning will increase compare other
sector Due to shi� the business from all over world to
India
• We have see similar Trend in last 5 year In chemical
Sector also, We expect similar trend will now play
Pharma also.
• Pharma Sector Weightage in Ni�y at 3 % near 2008
Low V/s Banking 36% V/s IT sector 15 % and FMGC
14.45 % As on 31.3-2020.
How One Should Capitalise This?
• As trend change for Pharma Index on Long term Basis
A�er 5 year of Ni�y Underperformance.
• One should Capitalise through Pharma Sector Mutual
Fund Instead of Stocks Specific. As it very Difficult for
Individual Investor to select One or two stock.
• Through Pharma Fund Individual Stock Selec�on Also
Reduced.
• Individual can allocate 5% to 8% of Por�olio to this
sector Mutual Fund.
• ICICI Pharma PHD FUND- Details are below
Gold Outlook for 2020 as Investment or Profit Booking?
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
Data Source-Spider So�ware
Year Gold USD % Change Gold INR % Change INR % Change Sensex
% Change
2010 1421 20728 44.91 20509
2011 1565 10% 27329 32% 53.49 19% 15454 -25%
2012 1675 7% 30859 13% 55.16 3% 19426 26%
2013 1201 -28% 28422 -8% 62.16 13% 21170 9%
2014 1183 -1% 26703 -6% 63.47 2% 27499 30%
2015 1060 -10% 24931 -7% 66.35 5% 26117 -5%
2016 1150 8% 27445 10% 68.10 3% 26626 2%
2017 1306 14% 29156 6% 64.2 -6% 34056 28%
2018 1278 -2% 31391 8% 69.94 9% 36068 6%
2019 1519 19% 39108 25% 71.54 2% 41254 14%
Apr-20 1750 15% 45546 16% 75.95 6% 33717 -18%
· In India Gold has given almost posi�ve return due to
our currency deprecia�on INR
· Technical also Gold has lower range of 37000 -35000
which 25% down from CMP 45500.
HUM CONSULTANCY
07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113
Email: [email protected] | [email protected]*)
· Due to Recession of Global Economy Gold in $ Term is
up 67 % in terms from 1046 in 2015 to 1750 in April-
2020.
· Indian Gold is Up 79% from 25000 in 2015 to 45500 �ll
date.
· In Long term Gold should be part of asset alloca�on of
every individual 5% to 7% of por�olio.
· For Short Term Gold might correct 38000 -35000 in for
next one year for buying opportunity in long term.
Disclaimer
• While due care has been taken in preparing the above Analysis, no responsibility
can be or is assumed for any consequences resul�ng out of ac�ng on it.
• This Document or report only for Educa�on purpose not for any investment advise
or recommenda�on.
• Please Consult with your Financial Advisor before ac�ng on this.
• HUM Consultancy Do not take any responsibility for that.
• Mutual Funds investment subject to stock market risk. Please Read offer document
carefully before Inves�ng.
• Hum consultancy is only Publish Report for market related educa�on purpose.