Demographic Transition and an
Ageing Society implications for local
labour markets in Poland
Poland, 21-22 March, 2013
Dr Cristina Martinez-Fernandez
OECD LEED Programme
Demographic change and local development
2
Extensive statistical / data analysis
Regional field mission and workshop
Analysis of policy indexes
Consolidated report
Regional Differences in Demographic Transition
• Complexity of demographic challenges between regions
– Associated with their socio-economic situations
4
Demographic Transition
Ageing Population
Declining Fertility
Population growth / decline
85
90
95
100
105
110
1991 1996 2001 2006
Poland Lodzkie
Malopolskie Pomorskie
Proportion of citizens aged 65+ between 1991 and 2035 Population Growth/Decline (Year 1991 = 100)
Labour market - unemployment
5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Unemployment rates 15 years or over
Poland Lódzkie Malopolskie Pomorskie
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Unemployment rates 15 to 24 years
Poland Lódzkie Malopolskie Pomorskie
Regional workshops
Regional Workshops
Age negative stereotyping
• Not a standalone issue Recognise
the importance
of older people
Sustainability of older people in society
• connections between age and infrastructure needs
The need for Labour
flexibility
Labour market
intelligence is required
Be proactive
• Consider medium and long-term
Undeveloped family policy
Poland Demographic Change Dashboard
7
PL11 – Lódzkie,
PL21 – Małopolskie
PL63 - Pomorskie
DCI Points – 2000
DCI Points – 2010
CRITICALVERY BADBAD
FAIR AVERAGE
SERIOUS
GOODVERY GOODEXCELLENT
PERFORMANCE LEGEND
Emerging Policy Themes
0
1
2
3
4
5
PL11
PL21PL61
ELFRI Index
0
1
2
3
4
5
PL11
PL21PL61
OLWOF Index
OLWOF rate OLWOF importance rate
1 = Poor
5 = Excellent
8
Policy development themes
9
Managing the demographic
transition with sustainableeconomic
development
Increasing skills and competency
levels in light of a changing
workforceDeveloping the silver economy
and managing the ageing working
force
Focusing on family policy in
light of low fertility levels
Fostering cross-regional sharing
of experiences , a community of
practice
Promotingintergenerational
solidarity
Planning infrastructure for
inclusive communities
Delivering smart and coordinated
policy
Encouraging healthy and
activecommunities for
the youth and within an ageing
society
Addressing falling fertility and population change
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Falling fertility rates
Access to care services for children
Flexible
Financial
Close to home/work
Client oriented
The promotions of family support
initiatives
Population change
Strategies to attract immigrants and
facilitate settlement
Systemic and sustainable policy -
on all administrative levels
Addressing ageing labour markets & older workers
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Ageing labour markets and older
workers
Focused policy approach - manage this transition
and promote and encompass opportunities
Prolonging the working life
Updating skills and knowledge. Eg
intergenerational activities
Improving working and health conditions
Promote environmental resources to encourage
economic growth
Developing favourable conditions for the ageing population
Continued investment in education services
Development in services to ensure
quality labour market supply and longevity of
professional active population
Labour market intelligence -
forecasting and skills matching
Thank you
Local Scenarios of Demographic Change
https://community.oecd.org/community/demographicchange
http://www.oecd.org/fr/cfe/leed/demographicchange.htm
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