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COVID-19 geographic analysis (U.S.)
State “stay-at-home” orders and their effect on automotive advertising
Microsoft Advertising. Intelligent connections.
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1 Considerations & methodology
2 Early movers
3 Late movers
4 Consumer response
Agenda
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Confusion in most states about a gray area for dealership sales
Demand-side data (advertiser performance)
Considerations
Data aggregated at designated market area (DMA)-level; exact state lines not preserved
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.cars.com/articles/coronavirus-and-cars-can-i-buy-a-car-or-have-one-repaired-in-my-state-420549/
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Methodology
Data available at a monthly cadence; looked at growth changes from Feb→Mar
Feb→Mar 2020 (COVID-19) vs. Feb→Mar 2019 growth (Pre-COVID-19)
Mar year-over-year (YoY) (COVID-19) vs. Feb YoY growth (Pre-COVID-19)
Growth changes displayed as percentage points (“pp”) to represent deltas between two percentages
1. Microsoft internal data
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Evaluation
9 states issued statewide “stay-at-home” orders early(Mar 19-23)
9 states issued statewide “stay-at-home” orders late(after Mar 30, or not at all)
1 state offered a discernible time lapse between a specific DMA’s early “stay-at-home” order and a late statewide order
1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
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1. https://mapchart.net/usa.html 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
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Early moversHow search performance changed in states that issued “stay-at-home” orders first
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For the 9 states that issued early “stay-at-home” orders, Mar 2020 clicks decreased significantly across all sub-verticals
-15pptotal clicks
Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019
-12pptotal clicks
Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
EARLY MOVERS
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-19pp
-5.3pp
-3.4pp
-14pp
-2.9pp
-4.7pp
Clicks Impressions Click-through rate (CTR)
Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY
Tier 3 has been hit the hardest
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
EARLY MOVERS
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-20pp
-8.9pp
-0.9pp
-17.8pp
-6.4pp
-1.1pp
Clicks Impressions CTR
Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY
“Dealership” keywords declined sharply for Tier 3 advertisers
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
EARLY MOVERS
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Late moversSearch performance in states that issued “stay-at-home” orders late or never at all
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For the 9 states that issued “stay-at-home” orders late or not at all, Mar 2020 clicks were relatively flat
-0.5ppTotal clicks Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019
-0.4ppTotal clicks Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY
3 of 9 statesTotal clicks were up
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
LATE MOVERS
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Tier 3 clicks increased, outpacing total clicks
+0.9ppFeb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019
+0.8ppMar YoY vs. Feb YoY
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
LATE MOVERS
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In Georgia, there was a discernable time lapse between an early “stay-at-home” order for one specific county and the late state-wide order
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
LATE MOVERS
-1.8ppFeb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019
-1.8ppMar YoYvs. Feb YoY
Total clicks decreased in the Albany, GA DMA, where DoughteryCounty issued an early “stay-at-home” order
Total clicks increased in
GA DMAs that waited for the late
statewide “stay-at-
home” order
+4.3ppFeb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019
+4ppMar YoYvs. Feb YoY
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Consumer responseWhat search performance tells us about consumers in troubling times
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Consumers turn to big brand messaging when it matters most
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
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2.6pp
-12.3pp
2.1pp
-12.2pp
Tier 1 Total
Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY
For the 19 states analyzed with either early, late or no “stay-at-home” orders, Mar 2020 Tier 1 CTR increased while CTR for the rest of the vertical decreased significantly
1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
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This week, incentive queries for brands offering relief are up 52% week over week (WoW)
Example keyword phrases include deals, rebates, offers, discounts, specialsMicrosoft Internal Data, January-March 24, 2020^Week 1-2 removed due to outliers in post-NYE query volume.
Since publicizing their relief efforts, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) providing COVID-19 specific incentives are seeing a lift in search volume
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
OEM incentives announced
Incentive + OEM brand search result page views (SRPVs) per week
Weeks
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15.6pp
10.1pp
5pp
19.3pp
11.8pp
5.3pp
Clicks Impressions CTR
Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY
Keywords with “incentives” intent surge
Example keyword phrases include deals, rebates, offers, discounts, specials1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html
U.S. AUTO VERTICAL ALL-UP
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3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
This year, WoW
Last year, WoW
This week, YoY
Year to date (YTD), YoY
Nationwide SRPVs for incentives are up, but ad saturation has declined -14.5% YoY, granting a recourse for advertisersWeekly density for incentive-specific in-market queries.
Example keyword phrases include deals, rebates, offers, discounts, specialsMicrosoft Internal Data, January-March 25, 2019; January-March 24, 2020*Density = Ad Impressions / Bidded SRPVs (ie average # of ads per bidded query)
▬ 2020 Density
▬ 2019 Density
Weeks
User interest has peaked, but ad options have decreased, enabling advertisers to re-enter the market with a +10% more cost-efficient cost per click (CPC), as well as the opportunity to message consumers in a less convoluted space
-14.5%
-13.2%
-4.0%
-5.3%
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Strategies and recommendations
Learn immediate and recovery-phase strategies, and how to approach new opportunities and optimize account health in the Digital Advertiser’s Guide to COVID-19
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Microsoft Advertising. Intelligent connections.