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Rapid Revenue Analysis with Modern Business Intelligence
Dr. Roger S. Cohen, Assistant Treasurer State of New Jersey
October 2016
FTA Revenue EsDmaDng Conference Asbury Park, New Jersey
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Principal Func<ons of Revenue Forecasters
• ForecasDng Annual and Monthly Revenues from major taxes and other revenue sources
• Explaining why actual revenues deviate from forecasts. • Explaining what current revenue performance means for future revenues.
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Typical Ques<ons
• Why did sales taxes suck, last month, compared to last year? • Which industry sectors are growing or shrinking? • How are same store sales of major retailers doing? • How did recent policy changes affect revenues? • Who were the biggest payers in August, last year, and how did they do this year? • Are there any expected payers who are missing?
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Resources
Our current main source of data is the electronic payment file that is stored in Sql Server and updated daily. • Contains all electronic payment to New Jersey made between January 1, 2012 and this morning. • Each record contains the dollar amount, tax or payment type, date and Dme stamp, and taxpayer id. • We have a view that contains this data merged with the taxpayer profile file to provide names and industry codes.
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Data Limita<ons
• Only contains electronic payments. Payments made by paper checks is not included in this file.
• Historic data does not update.
• ACH Credit payments are only as clean as the taxpayers make them. SomeDmes we get special characters in the taxpayer id when we shouldn’t.
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Once we were able to get access to data…
Revenue Amount Transactions AverageGIT-‐ER 154,848,917 67,571 2,292 SALES TAX 82,344,091 11,043 7,457 MOTOR FUELS TAX 11,612,818 4 2,903,204 UEZ 4,593,558 444 10,346 PRT-‐FT 4,198,514 677 6,202 HOTEL 3,218,500 246 13,083 CAPE MAY TOURISM 1,206,730 38 31,756 PARTNER BILL RTN PMT 910,850 1,149 793 ACLUX 710,153 30 23,672 CBT-‐EST 492,946 316 1,560 TGIEE 485,923 285 1,705 SALES ENERGY 481,591 6 80,265 CBT 458,761 394 1,164 PARTNERSHIP ESTIMATE 409,101 73 5,604 STREAMLINED SALES TAX 405,058 203 1,995 TAXDOL 242,434 422 574 TGIEE ESTIMATED 224,685 96 2,340 LABOR 201,847 71 2,843
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
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We discovered QlikView
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A simple, but useful example
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..with cleaned up headers to make it easy to import
rState FIPS Code rCounty FIPS Code rState Name rCounty Name State FIPS Code County FIPS Code State Name County Name Workers in
01 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 001 Alabama Autauga County 8,63501 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 007 Alabama Bibb County 1601 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 013 Alabama Butler County 401 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 021 Alabama Chilton County 59701 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 043 Alabama Cullman County 2701 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 047 Alabama Dallas County 37901 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 051 Alabama Elmore County 1,94201 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 053 Alabama Escambia County 1701 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 073 Alabama Jefferson County 17701 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 077 Alabama Lauderdale County 1001 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 081 Alabama Lee County 7101 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 085 Alabama Lowndes County 12401 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 087 Alabama Macon County 6401 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 097 Alabama Mobile County 2501 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 101 Alabama Montgomery County 11,48201 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 105 Alabama Perry County 1101 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 107 Alabama Pickens County 301 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 109 Alabama Pike County 9901 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 115 Alabama St. Clair County 901 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 117 Alabama Shelby County 9601 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 121 Alabama Talladega County 901 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 123 Alabama Tallapoosa County 2001 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 125 Alabama Tuscaloosa County 901 001 Alabama Autauga County 001 131 Alabama Wilcox County 1801 001 Alabama Autauga County 012 005 Florida Bay County 2101 001 Alabama Autauga County 012 033 Florida Escambia County 34
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Contact Informa<on
Roger S. Cohen, Ph.D. Assistant Treasurer for Tax Policy and Revenue Analysis
State of New Jersey
hUps://www.linkedin.com/in/roger-‐cohen-‐b8828b1