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Tourism and Climate ChangePolicies for Mitigation and Adaptation
Stefan GsslingDept. of Service Management, Lund University, Sweden
School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, Sweden
Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism, Western Norway Research Institute
Workshop on sustainable development strategies
and tourism, 18 June 2010, OECD, Paris
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Tourism is affected
by climate change
and a significantcontributor to
climate change
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Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008
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Emerging climate change
adaptation policies
Australia: Tourism and climate changea framework for
action
Austria: Awareness raising; participation in the national
research programme on climate change
Caribbean: comprehensive climate change vulnerabilityassessment ongoing
France: Research on the impact of climate change on
tourism, adjustment and associated costs
Germany: Guidelines to review of how to turn challenges
into opportunities
Ireland: Climate Change, Heritage and TourismImplications
for Irelands Coast and inland waterways
Norway: Investigated adaptation needs for a range of sectors.
New Zealand: Strategic plan for tourism and CC
United Kingdom: England South West, Awareness raising
campaign
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Conclusions adaptation
policy Few governments develop adaptation policies
specifically for tourism (full review in progress)
Political interest in adaptation and financial resources
allocated to identifying adaptation needs (and policies)
not always high.
Undoubtedly need to develop tourism adaptation
policies in coordinated, though destination-specific way.
Adaptation policy is about much more than costing and
financing, establishing incentives is also critical
(OECD 2009)
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Tourism as a contributor to emissions:
CO2,in 2005
Sub-Sectors CO2(Mt)
Air transport * 522 40%Car transport 418 32%
Other transport 39 3%Accommodation 274 21%
Activities 52 4%
TOTAL 1,307
Total World(IPCC 2007) 26,400
TourismContribution 4.95%
Transportation
of Tourists = 75%
of Sector Emissions
* - does not include
non-CO2emissions
and impact on climate.
Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008; Scott et al. 2010
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CO2only vs .radiative forcing (RF),
2005
* Rounded, AIC: aviation induced clouds
Source: Scott et al. 2010
Tourism contribution to global warming: 5.2-12.5%
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Business as Usual Projection of
Future CO2Emissions from Tourism
* Excluding same-day visitors
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2035
MtCO2
Air Transport
Car TransportOther Transport
Accommodation
Activities40%
32%
21%
52%
16%
25%
4% 7%
Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008
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Emissions from tourism and
global reduction needs
Global emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth, including energy
efficiency improvements as in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008).
Source: Peeters, 2009
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Climate policy goals
Source: Scott et al. (2010)
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Economics of mitigation
Essential to focus on all GHG, not only CO2,
because cost-increase for mitigation otherwise
substantial Exempting emission-intense industries will
significantly increase future abatement costs
All countries need to be part of reducing
emissions
Source: OECD 2009
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Policy mix necessary
1. Market-based approaches
2. Regulations and standards
3. Research & Development
4. Information-based instruments to facilitate
consumer choices
Note that many pol ic ies do no t apply specif ical ly for tour ism ,
because it is a highly fragmented secto r, rather thancon sum ption more general ly .
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1. Market-based approaches
Removing perverse energy subsidies (10% by 2050*)
Emission trading (-50% in Annex I countries by 2050)
Taxes (huge potential, but depending on price levels)
*based on OECD 2009
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EU ETS
(and other emission trading schemes)
Production-oriented, so little impact on
consumption in many areas
Not ambitious - no significant impact? (e.g.
over-allocation in first trading period 2005-2007) Open, i.e. cheap imports possible through CDM
EU ETS for aviation: 10% reduction by 2020, but
grandfathering for 85% of credits, and open
trading option.(3/1,000 pkm at permit prices of25 per ton of
CO2; Scott et al. 2010)
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Taxes for aviation
Currently mostly duties, which have distortive
effects, carbon tax superior
Carbon tax needs to be comparably high, possibly
in the order of300/t CO2, to have significantimpact
(cf. Mayor and Tol 2007, 2010)
Taxes in OECD coun tr ies on fuel (cars) have had effect
of signi f icant ly reduc ing fuel use! (Sterner 2007)
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Decline in arrivals because of EU ETS?
Yes in relative terms, no in absolute terms
Source: Gssling et al. 2008
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2. Regulation and Standards
Building codes
Electrical appliance standards
...
Purchase standards (e.g. FSC)?
REDD?
OECD (2009): create forest carbon market
that is separate from other markets
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3. Research & Development
Considerable potential, but:
Relying on R&D policy alone (in the absence of a
carbon p r ice) wou ld not be enough to reduce
emissions sufficiently
(OECD 2009:21)
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The case of aviation
Long haul aircraft fuel efficiency
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year of market introduction
EnergyIntensityEI(MJ/ask)
Penner et al. (1999)
Best fit regression
A380
Piston powered airliners
B787
Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008)
While observed and expected efficiency gains are in the order
of 1.5-2.0% per year, passenger growth is 4% per year.
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Biofuels - uncertainties
Which biofuel? Jatropha, algae, ...?
Substitutability of Jet A?
Energy-input versus energy-output?
Emission output compared to Jet A?
Area use?
Costs compared to Jet A?
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4. Information-based instruments
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Mandatory
carbon labelling?
Bonus/malussystems?
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Climate change policies for
mitigationAustralia: carbon assessment of tourism sector
Costa Rica: strives to become carbon neutral by 2021
Finland: monitoring and evaluation with a focus on transport-related
issues
France: promotion of green travel
Ireland: Carbon Strategy DocumentKorea: initiatives to promote low carbon green growth in tourism
Maldives: national goal to become carbon neutral by 2019
Norway: strives to reduce emissions by 40% by 2020, including all
sectors.
New Zealand: development of tools to assist tourism businesses to
measure and reduce their carbon footprintSweden: sustainable solutions for addressing climate change
United Kingdom: CO2emission reduction by 60% by 2050 law;
Developing low carbon strategies, tools to reduce emissions already
implemented (England South West)
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Integrating tourism policy
throughoutGlobal
National
Regional
Organizational
Business
UNFCCC
20% (EU) -100% (Maldives)
Regional visitors (S&F, Norw.)
International Air Passenger
Adaptation Levy -IAPAL-
Business (CCX, Aspen/USA)
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Conclusions
Global mitigation policy (Kyoto Protocol and its
mechanisms) faces a number of problems
(sufficient number of countries need to be
signatory, structure of NAPs, additionality of CDMprojects, etc.)
Tougher mitigation policies are needed globally
and nationally, based on a policy mix
(Mitigation policies are wanted by business!)
National policy frameworks are emerging, but
slowly and uncoordinated
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Thank you for your attention!