Download - C hina A utomotive R eport Executive Summary
五月“May” 2006
Market On The Boil
Market Summary 1-2 Product Watch 1-7 Industry News 1-10
Sales continue to climb into April with passenger vehicle sales totalling 383,571 units.
This new record figure is 44% higher than April’s figure of last year. Through the first four months of 2006, the market is up a total of 60%
The compact segment, the market’s largest, is adding most of the new volume, followed by the subcompact. In April alone, the two segments together achieved an increase in sales of some 90,000 units over April 2005.
(Continued on page 1-2)
C hinautomotiveeport
Executive Summary
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China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Current Climate
(Continued from page 1-1)The majority of the new volume (52%) in these two segments was achieved with models released over the last year.
In the subcompact segment, the largest individual volume growths were recorded by Nissan’s Tiida and Geely’s Freedom Ship, models which were available in the market last April. The next five highest were all new: Honda’s City, SGM’s Lova, Peugeot’s 206 and Hyundai’s new Accent.
It is a similar story in the compact segment. The highest volume growers were Chery’s Qiyun and SVW’sSantana3000, both of which are over a year old. But then the next three models, the Kia Cerato, Ford Focus and BYD F3, were all released within the last year.
It should be noted though that Santana3000 volumes were down 73% in April last year, so much of its new volume growth is old volume recaptured.
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China’s Sales, Growth and Forecast
Market On The Boil
So what conclusions can we draw from all of this?
New models will generally spur sales in a market, and China’s market has not been short of new releases over the last year. But this cannot be the only driving force behind the boom.
Some have speculated that the rural communities are now out buying cars too, but the recent strong growth from the midsize and luxury segment cannot be attributed to those consumers either.
The market could be overheating. We know sales on finance are not a significant proportion of overall sales, but banks are lending to business, and businessmen seem to be out buying the latest and greatest new cars.
Whether this is now sustainable growth or not remains to be seen. Things should become clearer over the coming months.
= Actual= Forecast
1-2
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Market Summary
Monthly Car Sales (2004-2006)
China’s passenger vehicle market continues to grow at a blistering rate, with sales through the first four months of the year up 60%. The luxury segment grew the fastest, up 159%, though this can largely be attributed to a recent tax hike on larger engined vehicles which drove consumers to buy prior to the April 1st deadline.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
20062005
2004
Units
369,211314,389266,437286,959243,287265,257283,489240356266,040246,446149,992170,957
383,571379,270261,184323,216
60%YTD
YTD-AprApril
507,196
18,258
1,058
29,771
26,283
77,334
188,892
147,213
18,387
Net Growth
117,531
1,270
-773
2,356
4,632
20,543
49,067
40,724
-288
Net Growth
44%
11%
-19%
16%
59%
50%
51%
62%
-1%
06/05
100%60%1,347,193383,571Total
4%56%50,96012,487MPV
1%9%12,9163,328SMPV
6%62%77,87017,504SUV
3%149%43,91212,481Luxury
16%58%209,87962,024Midsize
37%62%491,978145,030Compact
26%71%354,667106,469Subcompact
8%21%105,01124,248Micro Car
Share'0606/05Sales 06Sales 06Segment
Mar
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Sales by Segment
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China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Passenger vehicle imports jumped 97% through the first quarter of 2006 with a total of 44,615 cars and SUVs arriving from overseas. Japan remains the largest source of foreign vehicles, followed by Germany. The cause of this large jump in imports could be down to the increase in excise tax for large engined vehicles, which was implemented at the end of the first quarter.
Trend of Imports (2005-2006)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20062005
Passenger Car Imports
41,08343,71335,05922,65144,615
Mar
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Units
1-4
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q1-2006 13,271 12,557 6,360 5,878 1,761 1,377 923 777 569 564
Japan Germany South Korea
US England Sweden France Belgium Slavakia M exicoUnits
Top 10 Import Origins for Q1 2006
Imports Q1 2006Total: 44,615Cars: 21,382SUVs: 23,233
Total Imports 2005142,502
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Passenger Car Exports Mar
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1-5
Passenger vehicle exports totaled 17,378 units through the first quarter of 2006, a whopping 453% increase on the total recorded through the first quarter last year. Belgium received most of the exported vehicles, which consist mostly of the Honda Jazz. A new market to enter the top ranks is Malaysia, which is now receiving Cherys. Some 3,629 of the units heading to Malaysia in the first quarter were from Chery.
Trend of Exports (2005-2006)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20062005 12,69510,1336,9943,142
17,378
Units
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Q1-2006 4,432 3,934 1,561 1,401 1,383 948 544 456 420 336
Belgium M alaysia Italy Russia Syria Cuba Columbia Algeria Venezuela EgyptUnits
Top 10 Export Destinations for Q1 2006
Exports Q1 2006Total: 17,378Cars: 16,813SUVs: 565
Total Exports 200532,964
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Manufacturer Market Shares
SGM’s sales of 129,666 units firmly place it as the leading vehicle manufacturer in China through the first four months of 2006. SVW trails SGM by nearly 18,000 units in second place, but records the second largest growth out of the top ten manufacturers, with sales up 110%. The largest growth in the top ten was achieved by Toyota, up 132%. Currently ranked in seventh, expect to see this Japanese giant rise through the charts.
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20,000
30,000
40,000
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60,000
70,000
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SGM SVW Chery FAW-VW BeijingHyundai
GuangzhouHonda
TianjinToyota
FAW-TAIC Geely DongfengLtd.
20062005
YTD April Sales By ManufacturerUnits
Mar
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75%38,73967,969Dongfeng Ltd.1081%38,89870,384Geely920%60,25672,125FAW-TAIC8
132%31,26872,485Tianjin Toyota730%63,23982,338Guangzhou Honda 619%77,72492,545Beijing Hyundai591%48,92793,548FAW-VW497%51,655101,807Chery3
110%53,186111,946SVW 279%72,508129,666SGM 1
Growth20052006ManufacturerRank
Top 10 Manufacturers’ Sales Rank
1-6
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
VW maintains its market share of 15% through to the fourth month of the year, with 205,494 units sold. GM and Hyundai come in at second and third place respectively. These top three brands and quite spread apart with 60,000 units separating first and second, and 35,000 units separating second and third. Beyond these top three it is a much tighter pack.
Other11%
Guizhou Skylark 0%
Jinbei 0%FAW 0%
BMW 1%
Jianghuai Auto 1%
BYD 1%
Changhe 1%Mitsubishi 1%Soueast 1%
Harbin2%
Fiat 1%
Great Wall 1%
Chang'an 1%Dongfeng 0%
VW15%
GM11%
Hyundai8%
Chery8%
Honda7%
Toyota6%
Mazda3% Kia
2%
Ford3%Suzuki
5%Peugeot/Citroen
5%Geely5%
Nissan5%
FAW Xiali5%
Brilliance 0%Jiangling 0%
DC 0%Zhongxing 0%
Beiqi 0%Jiangnan 0%Foton 0%Subaru 0%
Brand Share YTD April 2006
16,119Mitsubishi1720,491BYD Auto1624,682Harbin1528,107Kia1437,511Mazda13
12,408Fiat18
38,916Ford1262,285Suzuki1164,703Peugeot/Citroen1070,384Geely970,407Nissan873,144FAW Xiali776,718Toyota692,396Honda5
101,807Chery4109,342Hyundai3144,890GM2205,494VW1SalesBrandRank
256Jiangnan Auto3521Guizhou Skylark36
320Chongqing Lifan34350Beiqi Foton33
2,219FAW322,620Beiqi Auto313,566Jinbei30
8,879Zhonghua22
4,399Zhongxing295,563Chang'an285,635Jiangling275,922DC266,795BMW Brilliance257,418Changhe247,445DFM-Liuzhou23
11,640Soueast2112,004Great Wall2012,337Jianghuai Auto19SalesBrandRank
Brand Sales Rank
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Brand Market Shares
1-7* Note: Brand sales are the total sales from all the brand’s respective joint ventures
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
15,98819,345
16,895
13,208
15,363
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
Charade Jetta Buick Excelle Elantra Accord
FAW Xiali’s Charade retakes pole position as the best selling vehicle in the Chinese car market in April. The Jetta, which held it last month, was shunted into second place. The only difference between April’s best sellers and those through the first four months of the year is the positions of the Accord and QQ. Though the Accord sold well in April, it is the QQ which just outsells it on average YTD.
Sales YTD 2006
Sales April 2006
Units
Pro
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Best Selling Models
1-8
59,379
65,908
60,173
47,893
50,920
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Charade Elantra Buick Excelle Jetta Chery QQUnits
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Nissan’s Tiida once more acquires more new volume in the month than any other model. Surprisingly, the top five volume growers in April are all models which have been available in the market for over 12 months. SVW accounts for two of them with the Passat and Santana3000 coming in at second and fifth place respectively.
Pro
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Model Volume Movements
1-9
Others156,760Total92,6154,512F3BYD Auto10*4,672LacrosseSGM 9*5,465ReizTianjin Toyota8*6,666FocusChang'an Ford7*6,787CeratoDongfeng Yueda Kia6*6,824Santana3000SVW 56,945Freedom ShipGeely47,010Chery QiyunChery37,516PassatSVW 27,748TiidaDongfeng Ltd.1
Volume Growth YoYModelManufacturerRankTop 10 Volume Growers in April
Others-39,229Total-17,222-1,632SafeGreat Wall Motors10-1,726PajeroChangfeng Group 9-1,956SantanaSVW 8-1,957SailSGM 7-2,071ElantraBeijing Hyundai6-2,201AccentDongfeng Yueda Kia5-2,392FitGuangzhou Honda 4-2,473Buick RegalSGM 3-2,667LioncelSoueast2-2,932AltoChang'an Suzuki1
Volume Decline YoYModelManufacturerRankTop 10 Volume Decliners in April
123,589Net Growth-34,574Volume Decline156,760Volume Growth
* Note: Model released within the last 12 months
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Guangzhou Toyota’s Camry is sixth generation model. It is produced in a new 200,000 unit capacity facility in Nansha Guangdong province. Though orders are being taken now, the first deliveries are expected in June.
Landwind’s new small MPV, Fengshang, is the harvest of four years’ effort between Changan and Jiangling. Rumours are afoot that this vehicle will also be heading to European markets in the future.
Toyota Camry
197,800 - 269,8002.0L – 2.4LMidsizeMay 23
Price (RMB)EngineSegmentLaunch Date
95,800 – 109,8001.6L – 2.0LSMPVMay 18
Price (RMB)EngineSegmentLaunch Date
Landwind Fengshang
Competitor Comparison
Mazda 6
195k – 228k RMB
Ford Mondeo
186k – 250k RMB
Pro
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Wat
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Monthly Watch of New Models
1-10
VW Caddy
130k – 167k RMB
Competitor Comparison
Mazda Premacy
138k - 165k RMB
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%1Q
, 03
3Q, 0
3
1Q, 0
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3Q, 0
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1Q, 0
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5
1Q, 0
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Charade 7101
With Toyota’s Camry now hitting the market, Toyota has done some shifting by dropping the price of the Reiz by 10%. Nissan drops the price of another Tiida variant, despite very strong sales of the model. Honda, amid increasing competition and rampant growth in the midsize segment, has dropped the price of the Accord by 9%.
241,800225,800Accord 2.4AT Standard 2006Guangzhou Honda247,500 238,500Reiz 2.5V AT/MT StandardTianjin Toyota139,800130,800Tiida 1.6G MTDongfeng Ltd
Old Price (RMB)New Price (RMB)ModelManufacturer
Tiida
9%
Price Tracker
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Accord 2.4L
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%1Q
, 03
3Q, 0
3
1Q, 0
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3Q, 0
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1Q, 0
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3Q, 0
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1Q, 0
6
Bora 1.6L (std)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Santana Basic -40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Mondeo 2.0
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Audi A4 1.8L
Pro
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Wat
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Price Watch
Reiz
10%
Accord
9%
% C
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% C
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China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
FAW to target international midsize models
FAW unveiled at the Hangzhou Auto Show recently the Benteng, is newly designed midsize sedan. FAW claims that the new model, expect to hit the market around July, will compete with the likes of the Accord, Passat, Teanaand Royaum. Though largely based on the Mazda 6, the Chinese manufacturer states that the model has been completely redesigned and is now essentially a Chinese designed vehicle. It will sport 2.0 and 2.3 litre engines, and is expected to sell for between 200,000 and 250,000 RMB.
Chery to move sales HQ to Shanghai
Chery, China’s best selling domestic car brand, is to move its sales headquarters from Anhui to Shanghai. The move is expected to be a gradually one, starting June and ending before the end of the year. Part of their research and development operations may also move to Shanghai as well.
Indu
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Market News
Proton and Chery to look into opportunities
Proton has announced that it has inked a feasibility study with Chery to look into supplying the Chinese models to both Malaysia and other South East Asian markets as well as supplying China with Proton models. The study is expected to take about three months.
Geely’s new plant
Geely is to build a new plant in Jinan, Shandong province. The start of construction is slated for the beginning of June. Initial capacity is expected to be at 100,000 units.
SAIC profits up 47% in Q1 2006
Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) has announced that its first quarter net profit this year was up 47% over the same period last year. According to its report, the company’s business income amounted to 2 billion RMB (US$1.25 billion) during the period, of which 223 million RMB (US$27.9 million) was net profit.
DPCA expects profit in 2006
PSA Peugeot Citroen’s joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Corp has said that they expect to make a profit in 2006 following losses for the last two years. Cost cutting and rising sales are cited as the primary instigators of this turnaround. Profits are expected to reach 400 million RMB (US$50 million) this year, following losses of 360 million RMB (US$45 million) in 2005 and 985 million RMB (US$123 million) in 2004.
1-12
China’s Accord and Camry Buster?
China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
BMW to increase local content
BMW Group has announced that it will more than triple the amount of components it sources from China for its JV with Brilliance Automotive Corp. BMW Brilliance Automotive said that they will increase the value of parts sourced domestically from 870 million RMB (US$109 million) in 2005 to 3 billion RMB (US$375 million) by 2007
Automation sector to diversify
International companies providing automation systems to the manufacturing sector have stated that they must diversify and begin offering more energy efficient systems to beat domestic players. Companies like ABB Group, Rockwell and Siemens Corp, who all have investments in China, say that though growth has been healthy to date, only with further research and development will they be able to maintain the momentum achieved over the last few years.
Policy News
Visteon opens air-con plant
The world’s second largest auto parts supplier, Visteon, recently opened a new US$65 million facility which will make air conditioning components. The facility, based in Dalian, in China’s northeasternLiaoning province, has a capacity to produce over one million air-con compressors a year and plans to also export the components to South Korea and other nations.
Bosch begins large scale investment
German auto parts giant Bosch recently announced plans to invest 160 million euros (US$203 million) in expanding its facilities in Changsha and Suzhou. Company executives stated that this was just the beginning of an investment plan which will see the company pour 620 million euros (US$787 million) into China over the next two years. In 2005, Bosch’s sales totaled 1.2 billion euros (US$1.53 billion) in China, a 15 per cent increase from 2004.
Removal of small car restrictions
The NDRC announced earlier this year that in an effort to promote the use of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, that cities which had restrictions on small cars driving on their roads, remove those restrictions. This was to go into effect by the end of March. Shanghai, Beijing and Wuhan have now announced that the restrictions have ‘mostly’ been removed. Other cities have yet to make any announcement.
Indu
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China Automotive Report - Executive Summary ------------------------------------ May 2006
Indu
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Upcoming China Auto Industry Events
1-14
Please confirm with the organiser or facility before making arrangements. Event dates and locations can change.
China International Exhibition Centre (CIEC), BeijingAuto China 2006Nov. 19 – 27
2006
Shenzhen Hi-Tech Fair Exhibition Centre, Shenzhen
The 10th Shenzhen International Automobile Exhibition (SHENZHEN MOTOR' 2006) Sept TBA, 2006
Shanghai Everbright Convention & Exhibition Center, ShanghaiAutomotive Testing Expo ChinaSept. 6-8, 2006
Suzhou High & New International Automobile Exhibition Center, Suzhou
2006 China Auto Part & Component Supplier Convention
Sept. 15-17, 2006
Xi'an Automobile Exposition Center, Shaanxi
2006 Western China International Automotive Industry Exposition
Sept. 21-30, 2006
The Tianjin Binhai International Exhibition & Convention CenterThe 2006 Tianjin International Automobile ShowSept./Oct. 29-5,
2006
Shanghai New International Expo CentreAutomechanika ShanghaiNov./Dec. 2006
Harbin International Convention & Exhibition Center
The 9th Harbin International Automobile Exhibition
Jul./Aug. 27-5, 2006
Dalian Xinghai International Exhibition Center
The 11th Dalian International Automotive Industry Exhibition
Aug. 24-28, 2006
FacilityEventDate
Automotive Resources Asia Ltd. (ARA) is a marketing strategy company specializing in Asia’s automotive markets. For more about ARA, visit www.auto-resources-asia.com.
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