Download - Brighton & Hove Poll of Residents
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Brighton & Hove
Poll of Residents
18 February 2010
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Voting intention if there was a general election tomorrow:
Brighton Pavilion
26%
16%
12%
5%
Labour Conservative Green Lib dems
Q4A. Which party would you vote for i f there was a general election tomorrow?Q4B (IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED AT Q4A) Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: Adults aged 18+ resident in Pavilion (336)
Other mentions: UKIP (1%), Other (1%), Would not vote (11%), Undecided (19%), Refused (7%)
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Voting intention if there was a general election tomorrow:
Brighton Kemp Town
Q4A. Which party would you vote for i f there was a general election tomorrow?Q4B (IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED AT Q4A) Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: Adults aged 18+ resident in Kemp Town (321)
24%23%
8%7%
Labour Conservative Green Lib dems
Other mentions: UKIP (1%), Other (1%), Would not vote (13%), Undecided (19%), Refused (4%)
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Voting intention if there was a general election tomorrow:
Hove
26%
23%
7% 7%
Labour Conservative Green Lib dems
Q4A. Which party would you vote for i f there was a general election tomorrow?Q4B (IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED AT Q4A) Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: Adults aged 18+ resident in Hove (343)
Other mentions: UKIP (1%), BNP (1%), Would not vote (12%), Undecided (15%), Refused (5%)
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Voting intention - Interpretation
It is important to note that this is not a prediction of election outcome but a snapshot measure of support for each political
party.
Pavilion still has solid Labour support while Kemp Town and Hove are in a much closer race between Labour and
Conservative.
As the general election approaches we would expect to see intention to vote for the Greens grow but they still need to work
hard to raise awareness. The findings from this survey contrast heavily with the Greens own poll conducted in Pavilion in
December 2009 where the Greens had a clear lead over Labour:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_dec_greens_brighton_poll.pdf.
This is primarily due to different question wording. In our poll, respondents were not prompted with the parties to vote for
and in the December poll were asked Labour, the Conservatives, the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats and other parties
will fight a new election in 2010 in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would
vote for?. This prompting raises likelihood to vote for lesser known parties. The Green Party is just not top of mind for
voters.
It should be noted that the sample (randomly generated telephone numbers from a BT database) and the methodology
(telephone interviews conducted by ICM following quotas based on 2001 census) are the same for both polls.
Also influential on the difference between now and December are:
The December poll weighted the data by past votes which raises the percentage for those saying they will vote
Green
At the time of the December poll there was heavy national news coverage of the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change which is likely to have raised awareness of green issues
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_dec_greens_brighton_poll.pdfhttp://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_dec_greens_brighton_poll.pdf -
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Technical note
A total of 1,000 interviews were completed between 8-14 February with adults aged 18+
permanently resident in the city of Brighton and Hove
Interviews were conducted by telephone and the data was collected by ICM Direct
Quotas were set by age, gender and working status within each constituency according to the
2001 census and then weighted to achieve a representative sample within each constituency
Any reporting of poll findings needs to include the details of this technical note and creditKindle Research.