brighton & hove poll of residents

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  • 8/14/2019 Brighton & Hove Poll of Residents

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    Brighton & Hove

    Poll of Residents

    18 February 2010

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    Voting intention if there was a general election tomorrow:

    Brighton Pavilion

    26%

    16%

    12%

    5%

    Labour Conservative Green Lib dems

    Q4A. Which party would you vote for i f there was a general election tomorrow?Q4B (IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED AT Q4A) Which party are you most inclined to support?

    Base: Adults aged 18+ resident in Pavilion (336)

    Other mentions: UKIP (1%), Other (1%), Would not vote (11%), Undecided (19%), Refused (7%)

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    Voting intention if there was a general election tomorrow:

    Brighton Kemp Town

    Q4A. Which party would you vote for i f there was a general election tomorrow?Q4B (IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED AT Q4A) Which party are you most inclined to support?

    Base: Adults aged 18+ resident in Kemp Town (321)

    24%23%

    8%7%

    Labour Conservative Green Lib dems

    Other mentions: UKIP (1%), Other (1%), Would not vote (13%), Undecided (19%), Refused (4%)

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    Voting intention if there was a general election tomorrow:

    Hove

    26%

    23%

    7% 7%

    Labour Conservative Green Lib dems

    Q4A. Which party would you vote for i f there was a general election tomorrow?Q4B (IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED AT Q4A) Which party are you most inclined to support?

    Base: Adults aged 18+ resident in Hove (343)

    Other mentions: UKIP (1%), BNP (1%), Would not vote (12%), Undecided (15%), Refused (5%)

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    Voting intention - Interpretation

    It is important to note that this is not a prediction of election outcome but a snapshot measure of support for each political

    party.

    Pavilion still has solid Labour support while Kemp Town and Hove are in a much closer race between Labour and

    Conservative.

    As the general election approaches we would expect to see intention to vote for the Greens grow but they still need to work

    hard to raise awareness. The findings from this survey contrast heavily with the Greens own poll conducted in Pavilion in

    December 2009 where the Greens had a clear lead over Labour:

    http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_dec_greens_brighton_poll.pdf.

    This is primarily due to different question wording. In our poll, respondents were not prompted with the parties to vote for

    and in the December poll were asked Labour, the Conservatives, the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats and other parties

    will fight a new election in 2010 in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would

    vote for?. This prompting raises likelihood to vote for lesser known parties. The Green Party is just not top of mind for

    voters.

    It should be noted that the sample (randomly generated telephone numbers from a BT database) and the methodology

    (telephone interviews conducted by ICM following quotas based on 2001 census) are the same for both polls.

    Also influential on the difference between now and December are:

    The December poll weighted the data by past votes which raises the percentage for those saying they will vote

    Green

    At the time of the December poll there was heavy national news coverage of the UN Framework Convention on

    Climate Change which is likely to have raised awareness of green issues

    http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_dec_greens_brighton_poll.pdfhttp://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_dec_greens_brighton_poll.pdf
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    Technical note

    A total of 1,000 interviews were completed between 8-14 February with adults aged 18+

    permanently resident in the city of Brighton and Hove

    Interviews were conducted by telephone and the data was collected by ICM Direct

    Quotas were set by age, gender and working status within each constituency according to the

    2001 census and then weighted to achieve a representative sample within each constituency

    Any reporting of poll findings needs to include the details of this technical note and creditKindle Research.