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BridgingScienceandPolicyinIndia’sStateActionPlansonClimateChange
CasestudyofUttarakhand
JenniferSteeves,Acclimatise8March2017IITM,Pune
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Today’spresentation• CurrentcontextofstateclimateplansinIndia• CasestudyUttarakhand(video)• AgendaforClimateAction– snapshotofagriculturesector• NextstepsforUttarakhand• KeyinsightsfromVRAprocess
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StateClimatePlansinIndia:currentcontext• AllstatesandUTshavedraftedStateActionPlansonClimateChange(SAPCCs)
• Currentlyfocussingon• VulnerabilityRiskAssessments(VRAs)• Prioritisationthroughimplementationplans• Mainstreaminginprioritysectors• Pipelineofprojectsforfunding• Fundingthoughexistingschemes
• NextSteps• FindlinkageswithIndia’sNationallyDeterminedContributionsandongoingNationalAdaptationPlan
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Video- ClimateChange&Uttarakhand:TheRoadtoResilience
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MappingclimateactioninUttarakhand
StateCentreforClimateChange
(upcoming)ClimateChangeKnowledge
Portal
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AgendaforClimateAction:Bridgingscience&policy
VRAreviewStep1
IdentificationofclimateimpactareasStep2
PolicyreviewStep3• Review• UAPCC• Statesectorpolicies• UttarakhandDevelopmentReport• RelevantmissionsundertheNAPCC• India’sNDC
ParticipatoryRuralAppraisal(PRA)reviewStep4
DevelopmentofAgendaforClimateActionStep5
Identificationofco-benefitsStep6
PolicyValidationStep7
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Agriculture
ClimateImpactAreas
1. Increasedwaterstress
2. Increasedriskofflooding
3. Changesincropyields
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Agriculture
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AgendaforClimateAction
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RCP4.5
RCP8.5
ThefigureshowsthecurrentandprojectedvulnerabilityoftheState’sdistrictsbasedonanumberofwater-relatedfactorsincludingwateravailabilityandextremeeventsoffloodanddrought.Asseen,PauriGarhwalandDehradunarecurrentlythemostvulnerableduetolesssurfacewaterandgroundwateravailabilitypercapitainmonsoonandnon-monsoonmonthsandhighcropwaterstressinthenon-monsoon (rabi) season. Champawat, Bageshwar and Pithoragarh are relatively the leastvulnerableduetofactorssuchasmaximumavailabilityofsurfaceandgroundwaterpercapitaandlesscropwaterstressinmonsoonascomparedtootherdistricts.
Water
ClimateImpactAreas
1. Seasonalchangesinwateravailability
2. Increasedriskofflooding
3. Potentialimprovedstreamflow
4. Implicationsformanagementofdam
infrastructure
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AgendaforAction
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Agenda forClimateAction
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AgendaforClimateAction:Nextstepsforallsectors
• On-groundresearchtovalidateVRAresults
• Targetedimpactassessments
• Reviewandupdatepolicyobjectives,inlinewithclimateevidence
• FurtherresearchintheareasofVRAlimitations
• Useadaptivemanagement,optionsflexibleandrobustagainsta
rangeoffutureclimateoutcomes
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Decision-makinginthefaceofuncertainty
(Wilby andDessai,2010)
• Focusonrobustnesstotoday’sandtomorrow'spotentialclimate– notnecessarilythe‘optimal’solution
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Keyinsights1. VRAresultsprovideanevidencebasetoguidepolicyandplanning,
determinewheretoinvestlimitedresources,supportfundingrequests2. VRAresultsrequiresignificantinterpretationtobeusefultodecision-
makers (AgendaforClimateAction)3. Nextstepisprioritization ofspecificactionsforimplementationgiven
limitedresources->co-benefitsapproach4. On-groundadaptationactionscannotbedirectlyderivedfromVRA
results,attheircurrentlevelofspecificity5. Further research isrequiredtovalidatemodel-basedresults,overcome
VRAlimitations
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Internationalpolicyimplications• Allstates’VRAsdonotfollowaconsistentframework,whichpresentsachallengeinaggregatingdataandprovidingastandardizedpictureofvulnerabilityacrossthecountry• ThiscreatesachallengeforimplementingIndia’sNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)– howtomeasurevulnerabilityreduction?
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Questionsforreflection• HowcanwebridgethegapbetweenVRAresultsandimplementationofclimateactionontheground?• IstheevidencebaseproducedbyaVRArobustenoughtosupportproposalsforclimatefinance?
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Thankyou!
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Backupslides
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SectorsaddressedbytheVRA
• Agriculture
• Water
• Health
• Forestry
• Disaster
Infrastructure
Tourism
AnimalHusbandry
UrbanDevelopment
Industries
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StateclimatePlans:fundingsofarNo. NationalAdaptation Fund,GoI State Outlay
(CrRs)1 ClimateResilientLivestockProductionSystem Punjab 17.402 Managementofrun-offintheriverbasininNuapada Odisha 20.00
3 SustainableLivelihoodsofAgriculture-DependentRuralCommunitiesinDroughtProneDistrictofHP
HimachalPradesh 20.00
4 ModelCarbonPositiveEco-VillageinPhayeng OfManipur Manipur 10.00
5 ManagementandrehabilitationofcoastalhabitatsandbiodiversityinGulfofMannar TamilNadu 24.74
6 PromotionofIntegratedFarmingSystemofKaipad andPokkali incoastalwetlands Kerala 25.00
7 SustainableAgricultureDevelopmentthroughExpansion,EnhancementandModelling Mizoram 10.38
8 ClimateAdaptationStrategiesinWetlandsalongMahanadiRiverCatchmentareasinChhattisgarh Chhattisgarh 21.47
9 ClimateResilientSustainableAgricultureinRain-FedFarming(Kandi)AreasofJ&K
JammuandKashmir 22.52
10 Spring-sheddevelopmentworksforrejuvenationofspringsinthewaterstressedareasofMeghalaya Meghalaya 22.92
11 ResilientAgriculturalHouseholdsinMahbubnagarDistrict,Telangana Telangana 24.00
12 IntegratedsurfaceWaterManagementthroughRejuvenationof20tanksand32villageponds Puducherry 16.76
No. AdaptationFund,UNFCCC State Outlay(USDMn)
1 Conservation and Management of CoastalResources for Sea Level Rise
AndhraPradesh
0.69
2 Increasing Resilience of Small and MarginalFarmers in Purulia and Bankura Districts
West Bengal 2.51
3 Building Adaptive Capacities of Small InlandFishermen Community
MadhyaPradesh,
1.79
4 Climate Proofing of Watershed DevelopmentProjects
Tamil NaduandRajasthan
1.344
5 Climate smart actions in north westernHimalayan region for sustainable livelihoodsof agriculture-dependent hill communities
Uttarakhand 0.969
6 Livelihoods and Ecological Security in theKanha-Pench Corridor (PCN approved)
MadhyaPradesh 2.50
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StateClimatePlansinIndia:fundingsofar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Welands Mitigation Agriculture Coasts Livestock Water Fisheries Cross-cutting
Sector-wiseallocationofadaptationfundinginIndia
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ModelSimulatedChangesinVegetationDistributionintheForestsofUttarakhand
RCP4.5RCP8.5
ForestsClimateImpactAreas1. Changesandshiftsinforesttypes
2. Uncertaintyinbiomassavailability
3. Increaseinforestfires
4. Lossoffloralbiodiversity
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AgendaforAction:Forestry• LinkVRAfindingswithspecificpoliciesgoverningNTFPs
• Strengthenexistingsystemstoimproveproductivity,collectionand
marketaccessforNTFPs
• Researchinshiftsinspecificforesttypesandtreespecies
• Researchonforestfires
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AgendaforAction
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ProjectedFutureChangesinAnnualMaxTemperatureforMidCenturyandEndCenturywithrespecttoBaseline(1981- 2010)
RCP8.5
RCP4.5
HealthClimateImpactAreas
1. Increasedheatstress
2. Increaseinmalariaandothervectorbornediseases
3. Increasedfloodsandlandslides
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MonthlyVariationsintheGeographicDistributionofAdultMosquitoOccurrence
RCP8.5RCP4.5
Health
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AgendaforAction:Health• Factorheatstressasahealthimpactincurrentpolicies~HeatActionPlan
• Reviewandstrengthenprogrammestotacklevectorbornediseases:Focusbeyondthecurrentplaindistricts
• Undertakedistrictlevelanalysisofdisasterproneregions
• Focusoncloud-bursts,assessmentofwaterbodiesandwatersurfacetemperatures
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AgendaforAction
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DisasterRisk ClimateImpactAreas
1. Worseningsoilerosionandlandslides
2. Floodsandlandslidesincreasevulnerabilityoflocalcommunities
3. Climaterisksnotlinkedtocurrentdisastermanagementpolicies
4. RiskofsnowmeltandGLOFsresultinginflashfloods
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DisasterRiskWorseningsoilerosionandlandslides
• Incorporatelandslidemanagementtechniquesinallinfrastructuredevelopment,withemphasisonroadconstruction
Ø Measuressuchasnohabitationonquaternarydeposits,littletonouseofexplosivesinthehills,slopestabilizationmeasuresalignedwithallslopemodificationworks)
• Forest conservation and avoided deforestation measures in disasterprone regions linked to VRA findings
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DisasterRiskClimaterisknotlinkedtocurrentdisastermanagement
policies
• Reviewandupdateofstate,districtsandvillagedisastermanagementplanslinkedtoriskanalysisreport
• Re-examinecriticalinfrastructureinventory(suchaspoliceresources,hospitals,Primaryandcommunityhealthcarecentres,helipadsetc.)asdetailedintheSNDPforvulnerabledistrictsandblocksbasedontheriskanalysisreport
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DisasterRisk
SnowmeltandGLOFsresultinginflashfloods
• Furtherresearchonmodellimitations
Ø TemperaturechangeswhichcanleadtosnowmeltandGlacialLakeOutburstFloods(GLOFs)furtherexacerbatingfloodsandlandslides
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DisasterRiskDisasterriskcanworsencurrentdevelopmentobjectives
• MainstreamingDM&climateresilienceindevelopmentprogrammes;ensuringprogrammesaresanctionedafterconductingcomprehensiveclimateanddisasterriskassessments
• Ensuringeachselectedprojectorinitiativehasfactoredsufficientfundstodealwithextremeevents
• ComprehensiveriskanalysisaswellassafetyauditsforallnewandexistinginfrastructurebasedonriskanalysisreportandtheVRA.
• Ensureincorporationofdisasterresistantfeaturesinallnewconstructionsasstipulatedbynationalbuildingcodes&otherBureauofIndianStandardscodes
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AgendaforAction