BridgingScienceandPolicyinIndia’sStateActionPlansonClimateChange

CasestudyofUttarakhand

JenniferSteeves,Acclimatise8March2017IITM,Pune

Today’spresentation• CurrentcontextofstateclimateplansinIndia• CasestudyUttarakhand(video)• AgendaforClimateAction– snapshotofagriculturesector• NextstepsforUttarakhand• KeyinsightsfromVRAprocess

StateClimatePlansinIndia:currentcontext• AllstatesandUTshavedraftedStateActionPlansonClimateChange(SAPCCs)

• Currentlyfocussingon• VulnerabilityRiskAssessments(VRAs)• Prioritisationthroughimplementationplans• Mainstreaminginprioritysectors• Pipelineofprojectsforfunding• Fundingthoughexistingschemes

• NextSteps• FindlinkageswithIndia’sNationallyDeterminedContributionsandongoingNationalAdaptationPlan

Video- ClimateChange&Uttarakhand:TheRoadtoResilience

MappingclimateactioninUttarakhand

StateCentreforClimateChange

(upcoming)ClimateChangeKnowledge

Portal

AgendaforClimateAction:Bridgingscience&policy

VRAreviewStep1

IdentificationofclimateimpactareasStep2

PolicyreviewStep3• Review• UAPCC• Statesectorpolicies• UttarakhandDevelopmentReport• RelevantmissionsundertheNAPCC• India’sNDC

ParticipatoryRuralAppraisal(PRA)reviewStep4

DevelopmentofAgendaforClimateActionStep5

Identificationofco-benefitsStep6

PolicyValidationStep7

Agriculture

ClimateImpactAreas

1. Increasedwaterstress

2. Increasedriskofflooding

3. Changesincropyields

Agriculture

AgendaforClimateAction

RCP4.5

RCP8.5

ThefigureshowsthecurrentandprojectedvulnerabilityoftheState’sdistrictsbasedonanumberofwater-relatedfactorsincludingwateravailabilityandextremeeventsoffloodanddrought.Asseen,PauriGarhwalandDehradunarecurrentlythemostvulnerableduetolesssurfacewaterandgroundwateravailabilitypercapitainmonsoonandnon-monsoonmonthsandhighcropwaterstressinthenon-monsoon (rabi) season. Champawat, Bageshwar and Pithoragarh are relatively the leastvulnerableduetofactorssuchasmaximumavailabilityofsurfaceandgroundwaterpercapitaandlesscropwaterstressinmonsoonascomparedtootherdistricts.

Water

ClimateImpactAreas

1. Seasonalchangesinwateravailability

2. Increasedriskofflooding

3. Potentialimprovedstreamflow

4. Implicationsformanagementofdam

infrastructure

AgendaforAction

Agenda forClimateAction

AgendaforClimateAction:Nextstepsforallsectors

• On-groundresearchtovalidateVRAresults

• Targetedimpactassessments

• Reviewandupdatepolicyobjectives,inlinewithclimateevidence

• FurtherresearchintheareasofVRAlimitations

• Useadaptivemanagement,optionsflexibleandrobustagainsta

rangeoffutureclimateoutcomes

Decision-makinginthefaceofuncertainty

(Wilby andDessai,2010)

• Focusonrobustnesstotoday’sandtomorrow'spotentialclimate– notnecessarilythe‘optimal’solution

Keyinsights1. VRAresultsprovideanevidencebasetoguidepolicyandplanning,

determinewheretoinvestlimitedresources,supportfundingrequests2. VRAresultsrequiresignificantinterpretationtobeusefultodecision-

makers (AgendaforClimateAction)3. Nextstepisprioritization ofspecificactionsforimplementationgiven

limitedresources->co-benefitsapproach4. On-groundadaptationactionscannotbedirectlyderivedfromVRA

results,attheircurrentlevelofspecificity5. Further research isrequiredtovalidatemodel-basedresults,overcome

VRAlimitations

Internationalpolicyimplications• Allstates’VRAsdonotfollowaconsistentframework,whichpresentsachallengeinaggregatingdataandprovidingastandardizedpictureofvulnerabilityacrossthecountry• ThiscreatesachallengeforimplementingIndia’sNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)– howtomeasurevulnerabilityreduction?

Questionsforreflection• HowcanwebridgethegapbetweenVRAresultsandimplementationofclimateactionontheground?• IstheevidencebaseproducedbyaVRArobustenoughtosupportproposalsforclimatefinance?

Thankyou!

Backupslides

SectorsaddressedbytheVRA

• Agriculture

• Water

• Health

• Forestry

• Disaster

Infrastructure

Tourism

AnimalHusbandry

UrbanDevelopment

Industries

StateclimatePlans:fundingsofarNo. NationalAdaptation Fund,GoI State Outlay

(CrRs)1 ClimateResilientLivestockProductionSystem Punjab 17.402 Managementofrun-offintheriverbasininNuapada Odisha 20.00

3 SustainableLivelihoodsofAgriculture-DependentRuralCommunitiesinDroughtProneDistrictofHP

HimachalPradesh 20.00

4 ModelCarbonPositiveEco-VillageinPhayeng OfManipur Manipur 10.00

5 ManagementandrehabilitationofcoastalhabitatsandbiodiversityinGulfofMannar TamilNadu 24.74

6 PromotionofIntegratedFarmingSystemofKaipad andPokkali incoastalwetlands Kerala 25.00

7 SustainableAgricultureDevelopmentthroughExpansion,EnhancementandModelling Mizoram 10.38

8 ClimateAdaptationStrategiesinWetlandsalongMahanadiRiverCatchmentareasinChhattisgarh Chhattisgarh 21.47

9 ClimateResilientSustainableAgricultureinRain-FedFarming(Kandi)AreasofJ&K

JammuandKashmir 22.52

10 Spring-sheddevelopmentworksforrejuvenationofspringsinthewaterstressedareasofMeghalaya Meghalaya 22.92

11 ResilientAgriculturalHouseholdsinMahbubnagarDistrict,Telangana Telangana 24.00

12 IntegratedsurfaceWaterManagementthroughRejuvenationof20tanksand32villageponds Puducherry 16.76

No. AdaptationFund,UNFCCC State Outlay(USDMn)

1 Conservation and Management of CoastalResources for Sea Level Rise

AndhraPradesh

0.69

2 Increasing Resilience of Small and MarginalFarmers in Purulia and Bankura Districts

West Bengal 2.51

3 Building Adaptive Capacities of Small InlandFishermen Community

MadhyaPradesh,

1.79

4 Climate Proofing of Watershed DevelopmentProjects

Tamil NaduandRajasthan

1.344

5 Climate smart actions in north westernHimalayan region for sustainable livelihoodsof agriculture-dependent hill communities

Uttarakhand 0.969

6 Livelihoods and Ecological Security in theKanha-Pench Corridor (PCN approved)

MadhyaPradesh 2.50

StateClimatePlansinIndia:fundingsofar

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Welands Mitigation Agriculture Coasts Livestock Water Fisheries Cross-cutting

Sector-wiseallocationofadaptationfundinginIndia

ModelSimulatedChangesinVegetationDistributionintheForestsofUttarakhand

RCP4.5RCP8.5

ForestsClimateImpactAreas1. Changesandshiftsinforesttypes

2. Uncertaintyinbiomassavailability

3. Increaseinforestfires

4. Lossoffloralbiodiversity

AgendaforAction:Forestry• LinkVRAfindingswithspecificpoliciesgoverningNTFPs

• Strengthenexistingsystemstoimproveproductivity,collectionand

marketaccessforNTFPs

• Researchinshiftsinspecificforesttypesandtreespecies

• Researchonforestfires

AgendaforAction

ProjectedFutureChangesinAnnualMaxTemperatureforMidCenturyandEndCenturywithrespecttoBaseline(1981- 2010)

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

HealthClimateImpactAreas

1. Increasedheatstress

2. Increaseinmalariaandothervectorbornediseases

3. Increasedfloodsandlandslides

MonthlyVariationsintheGeographicDistributionofAdultMosquitoOccurrence

RCP8.5RCP4.5

Health

AgendaforAction:Health• Factorheatstressasahealthimpactincurrentpolicies~HeatActionPlan

• Reviewandstrengthenprogrammestotacklevectorbornediseases:Focusbeyondthecurrentplaindistricts

• Undertakedistrictlevelanalysisofdisasterproneregions

• Focusoncloud-bursts,assessmentofwaterbodiesandwatersurfacetemperatures

AgendaforAction

DisasterRisk ClimateImpactAreas

1. Worseningsoilerosionandlandslides

2. Floodsandlandslidesincreasevulnerabilityoflocalcommunities

3. Climaterisksnotlinkedtocurrentdisastermanagementpolicies

4. RiskofsnowmeltandGLOFsresultinginflashfloods

DisasterRiskWorseningsoilerosionandlandslides

• Incorporatelandslidemanagementtechniquesinallinfrastructuredevelopment,withemphasisonroadconstruction

Ø Measuressuchasnohabitationonquaternarydeposits,littletonouseofexplosivesinthehills,slopestabilizationmeasuresalignedwithallslopemodificationworks)

• Forest conservation and avoided deforestation measures in disasterprone regions linked to VRA findings

DisasterRiskClimaterisknotlinkedtocurrentdisastermanagement

policies

• Reviewandupdateofstate,districtsandvillagedisastermanagementplanslinkedtoriskanalysisreport

• Re-examinecriticalinfrastructureinventory(suchaspoliceresources,hospitals,Primaryandcommunityhealthcarecentres,helipadsetc.)asdetailedintheSNDPforvulnerabledistrictsandblocksbasedontheriskanalysisreport

DisasterRisk

SnowmeltandGLOFsresultinginflashfloods

• Furtherresearchonmodellimitations

Ø TemperaturechangeswhichcanleadtosnowmeltandGlacialLakeOutburstFloods(GLOFs)furtherexacerbatingfloodsandlandslides

DisasterRiskDisasterriskcanworsencurrentdevelopmentobjectives

• MainstreamingDM&climateresilienceindevelopmentprogrammes;ensuringprogrammesaresanctionedafterconductingcomprehensiveclimateanddisasterriskassessments

• Ensuringeachselectedprojectorinitiativehasfactoredsufficientfundstodealwithextremeevents

• ComprehensiveriskanalysisaswellassafetyauditsforallnewandexistinginfrastructurebasedonriskanalysisreportandtheVRA.

• Ensureincorporationofdisasterresistantfeaturesinallnewconstructionsasstipulatedbynationalbuildingcodes&otherBureauofIndianStandardscodes

AgendaforAction