Basin Hydrology, Water Years 2018-2019
Operations
Glen Canyon Technical Work GroupJune 25, 2018
<•~!U"!N' 0, !Hf INr
•·• :::_ U.S. Department of the Interior •· .. ~;;;.;,,.-./ Bureau of Reclamation
Snow Conditions
2
SWE peaked at 73 % of the peak seasonal median on 3/30/2018
Snowpack has melted out
Updated on 6/22/2018
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 (\
't av (\ ~
~o
Upper Colorado River Basin Snotel Tracking Aggregate of 104 Snotel Sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin
(\ cf
()<Q
.. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . ,~ . ~· . ,.. . ~~
Month
125 W
100
~ "" "' &: "' C 0
I V)
75 C
"' '5 ., :E 0
50 ill, i¥ ., !:! .,
25 ll.
- comparison Year Basin-wide S1NE W\'2017 - current Year Basin-wide SVI/E W\'2018 - 30 Year Basin-wide Median S1/1/E I Data Provided by the Natural Resource Cons.rvation Service {NRCS}
RECLAMATION
1-Ocl
15-0ct
29-0ct
12-Nov
Flow Rate, cfs ~ ~ ~ N
._Ln p ~· .p .y, 08 8 8 g 8
0 C O O 0
26-Nov
1
~ it I I 10-Dec -.ai~ t ~ ?/ t I a,
0 ~
24-Dec "-~ ,I t I -("")
~ ~ I I .....a. 1 I
7-Jan
21-fan - I .I - 1..;._; I ! ~ ~ tD
4-Feb ~ 1 , C' t I Cl> "'tJ ~ 0
18-Feb ,a t I ; :::
4-lvlar ~ =-if.• t E .L t I ~ !'.!!,. - -II>
I ~ I I 18-Mar -•lliii-- -1-Apr ' ) , - iiiii• I C t I !
ro 15-Apr J· ,2 · 1 · · :S.. t I ~-
o 29-Apr ii .... !!'""' ,..::::== I I ::I
13-M ay
27-M ay
10-.lun
24-Jun w w w ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0
Elevations. feet
4
94%
59%
53%70%
88%
1 percent of average based on period 1981-2010.
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html
ReservoirA-J
Forecast(KAF)
Percent of
Average1
Fontenelle 980 135%
Flaming Gorge 1,100 112%
Blue Mesa 260 39%
Navajo 174 24%
Powell 2,650 37%
Basin StorageAs of
6/24/2018
Upper Basin Storage
2018 April to July Inflow Forecast
Issued June 18, 2018
5
June Mid-Month: 2.65 maf (37%)
18 " A~ril - Jul~ 2018 Forecast " -u. 16 4;
==
Most Prob: 3.0 maf (42%) Min Prob: 2.08 maf (29%) -Cl)
14 E ::::I
" M ax Prob: 4.18 maf (58%)
"
~ 12
~ - -;: C 10
--"Cl -Cl) -.!!! 8 ::::I
-- --Cl Cl) .. C
6 ::, - -" +- -- - -
>, " -- -'3 -..,
4 I -·::::: Q. <( 2 . -
... 0
'SI" <D O')
<D <D J>
00 <D O')
0 ..... O')
N r-O')
'SI" r-O')
<D ..... O')
00 r-O') - - - - - - - -
Lake Powell Unregulated Inflow April - July 2018 Forecast
Issued June 4th
--- Average: 7.16 maf (1981-2010)
- - ---- - -
--- - •• -
- - -- -- - - - -- -- -- - -
~
0 N 'SI" <D 00 0 N 'SI" <D 00 0 N 'SI" <D 00 00 00 00 00 O') O') 0) O') 0, 0 0 0 0 O') O') O') O') O') O') O') O') O') O') 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - N N N N
Year
-
- ---- -
- --
--
00 0 N 'SI" <D 00 00 0 - ~ - - - -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N
C: t; X ·- 0 «:S ~ ::E ~
6
Lake Powell 2018 Operating TierUpper Elevation Balancing
• Tier was set in August 2017– Start with 8.23 maf release
• Use April 24-Month Study projections of end of water year storage to potentially adjust1. Stay with 8.23 maf2. Balancing: 8.23 - 9.0 maf3. Equalization: > 8.23 maf
3,700
3,63; -31666 (2COO-Ki25)
3,676
3,490
3,370
M th@ lntt11im Gui!tflliria~
Equaililation Tier Equalize, t:\~io spi Is or release 8.23 maf
-----------------------------------------------Upper Elri1111icn Balancing Tier
t-iel1:::ase 8.23 rmll, 11 L• k• M,-;~ < 1,0•) 1,.,
l,al<11l0e, oonterrts witil .: min/ma:< '= ease of
10 Md9.C ITl~f
Mld·Ele•aJ Ion Release Tier
R.:-lcasc 7,4S maf. H ake Mead< 1.:>Z5 feet
reltat.e 8.23 m.if
Lower E!c\'alion Balancing Tier
Balance contentr. with a min/max 'E ease of
103nd ~.E rn3f
16.0 - 19.3 ('20M-2C26)
9.6
5.9
,.o
0
7
Potential Lake Powell Release Scenarios Water Year 2018 Release Volume as a Function of Unregulated Inflow Volume
based on June and April 2018 24-Month Study Conditions I I
Water Vear 2018
Powell releases controlled by ba lancing 2018 Most Probable
9.5 contents of Powellseµ,o and Meadsev:;o WY Unreg Inflow= 5.25 mat (48%)
(Release= 8.23 up to 9.0 maf) Powell Release= 9.0 maf
9.0
8.5
YTD Measured Unreg Inflow = ·---, ______ .. / ,,,,,,,,'
4.4 mat (WY18 as of 6/24/18) ... ~,,,,,,,,-✓• - -
I • . -. , __
' -----------------\\ ' ' ' 2018 MaKimum Probable \\
I ' WY Unreg Inflow = 7. 76 mat (72%) -
M inimum Inflow Scenario Powell Release= 9.0 maf
WY Unreg Inflow = 4.32 mat (40%) Powell Release= 9.0 mat
8.0 - coordinated Ops Main Line I-
0 Probable Max {Apr 18)
7.5 O Probable Min (Apr 18)
• Most Probable (Jun 18)
• WY Unreg Inflow (to date)
7.0 0 2 4 6 8 10
Potential Water Year Unregulated Inflow Volume (maf)
8
1,600
1,400
1,200
C ro -"' 1,000 ~
QJ
E ::,
0 > 800 QJ (/) ro QJ 600 ©
0:::
400
200
Projected Lake Powell Monthly Release Volume Distribution Release Scenarios for Water Year 2018 Based on June and April 2018 modeling
WY 2018 Release Scenarios Apr Probable Min: 9.0 maf Jun Most Probable: 9.0 maf Apr Probable Max: 9.0 maf
G40 630
8bU
C ro --,
..Q QJ LL
llOO
(0
705 705
(0
• Probable Min • May Most Probable • Probable Max
9
Water Year 2018 projectionsMost: 9.0 maf releaseMIN: 9.0 maf release MAX: 9.0 maf release
End of May 2018 Elevation:3611.0 feet (53% full) End of CY 2018 Projection:
3588.5 feet (44% full)Min/Max Range: 3580 to 3612 feet
Water Year 2019 projectionsMost: 9.0 maf releaseMIN: 8.8 maf release MAX: 9.0 maf release
3,700
3,675
3,650
3 ,625
= -; 3,600 0
~Cl): 3 575 . jjj
3,550
3,525
3 ,500
3,475
I I
Lake Powell End of Month Elevations Historic and Projected based on June and April 2018 Modeling
Equalization Tier (ET)
Upper Elevation Balancing Tier (3575'-ET)
I I I Fi.Jtl re ·~
3,154 3,655'
, , , , I - - L I ~,._1 i
/ -==L-- . r---1---rl - ---
I I I Mid-Elevation Release ner (3525'-3575')
Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (<3525')
i ,..,. ... _ - w-..._ .. .. .. ~--..._ __ ._ __ -.. ...... _ ,' .... ... _., __ .. ~-
, , ,
--......... , ---r-_:;;, ~~
• I I I I
...
--I
, ,,,
--~ I i~;~~ P;; e; P~ol -1---13,i90: -t---' -, ----------------------1-1-1-. ' ' ' ' I ' '
I'-- I'-- I'-- I'-- r-. I'-- I'-- I'-- I'-- r-- I'-- I'-- co co co co co co co co co co co co a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
' o!. o!. >- . c, a. t5 > l) ' o!. ' >- C: . c, 6. t5 l) • o!. ' >- C: • c, 6. C .Q C :::, C .Q ~ :::, > C .Q ~
:::, (!l Q) '" a. «I :::, :::, Q) 0 Q) (!l QJ cu a. «I :::, :::, Q) 0 Q) (!l Q) cu a. 11) :::, :::, Q) -, LL ~ <( ~ -, -,
<( (/) 0 z 0 -, LL ::1; <( ~ -, -, <( Cl) 0 z 0 -, LL ::1; <( ~ -, -,
<( Cl)
--Observed --June 2018 Most Prooable - - -Apr 2018 Mi1 Probable • -- • Apr 2018 Max Probable
10
Most Probable End of CY 2018 Projection: 1,077.7 feet (38% full)
Min/Max Range: 1,077 to 1,081 feet
Most Probable End of CY 2019 Projection: 1,073.3 feet (36% full)
Min/Max Range: 1,062 to 1,079 feet
1,150
1,125
- 1.,100 (D E (I) > 0 .c 1,075 "' ai (I) --.2 1.,050 -"' > (I)
iii 1,025
1,000
Surglus Condition, 1, .... -1 n ana u,ove
Normal Con bition 1,075 tc 1 ,1• 5 ft
-.... l~I
Lake Mead End of Month Elevations Projections from the April and June 2018 24-Month Study Inflow Scenarios
I
Hi: ton1cal Funm
J:--+. ----,.,I ... ~
I I ..... ---:.:.--i-~~;;"1'-=}i~, , , "' ~ I -4f----··--
Level 1 Shortage Condit on -----~rt:-=.:ri= 1,060 I 1.076ft I
.... ... ~ -,
-it•~<- Ion 1,025 i 1, 50 ft
Level ! Sh! rtage Condi
1,025 ~ •r below
ion
... ... .... ... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... 00 CD CD 00 CD CD CD CD CD co CD CD 0, en en Cl en en en "' ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... • • • ' • '5 . • . > • • • • • . • '5
. • . > • • • • • ' • '5 .
,c ~ ... >- C a, Q, - " C ,c ~ ...
~ C a, Q, - " ~ ,c ~ ...
~ C a, Cl) ~ "' :::J :::J ., " 0 .,
"' Cl) a, :::J :::J Cl) " 0 ., ., a, :::J :::J i.. :ii: :: -, -,
< II) 0 z Q -, i.. :ii: <( :: -, -, < II) 0 z Q -, i.. :ii: <( :: -, -,
<
-----Aprt l 2018 Probable Maximum lnftowwtth Lake Powell Release ot 9.00 mar In WY 2018 and WY 2019
- - June 2018 Most Probable Inflow wtth Lake Powell Release of 9.00 mar In WY 2018 and WY 2019
--- - Aprt l 2018 Probable Minimum Inflow with Lake Powell Rel ease of 9.00 mar In WY 2018 and 8.81 mar In WY 2019
"' "' cn en ... ... ... ... • . > • Q, - " Cl) " 0 ., 1/) 0 z Q
Unit Number
Oct 2017
Nov 2017
Dec 2017
Jan 2018
Feb 2018
Mar 2018
Apr 2018
May 2018
Jun 2018
Jul 2018
Aug 2018
Sep 2018
12
345678
Units Available 6 6/4 4/6 6 4/6 5/6 5/6 5 6/7 7 7 5
Capacity (cfs)
21,000 13,200 13,200 20,600 13,000 12,000 15,700 15,600 12,200 23,900 23,900 12,600
Capacity (kaf/month) 1,290 970 1,170 1,260 780 1,060 1,130 980 1,210 1,470 1,470 1,190
Max (kaf) 1 667 630 740 860 730 800 705 705 760 860 900 670
Most (kaf) 2 640 630 740 860 730 800 705 705 760 860 900 670
Min (kaf) 1 630 630 740 860 750 780 683 700 760 860 900 670
11
Glen Canyon Power Plant Planned Unit Outage Schedule for Water Year 2018
1 Projected release, based on Apr 2018 Min and Max Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs
2 Projected release, based on June 2018 Most Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs
9.09.0
9.0
(updated 6-11-2018)
CII D "
[J CJ [J .. CJ • .. •
I I I
I I I
RECLAMATION
Experimental MacroinvertebrateProduction Flow (Bug Flow)
• Approved by Assistant Sec. Water & Science on April 13.
– Experiment is for May through August– Steady weekend flows.– Normal hydropower production flows during week days.– No monthly or weekly volumes flow changes.– Week day fluctuating flows follow LTEMP guide lines.
12
13
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
en 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5/01 - Tu e ;;r (D Cl. 5,U2 - Wed C: ar G) Cl. 5:U3 - Thu -I Cl) 0 5.104 - Fri ::I C: ~
'< 51U5 - Sat 0 ;:o !!!. Cl) (D 5/06 - Sun ::I .,
'< Ill (D 5/07 - Mon 0 Ill
::I 5/08 - Tu e
5/09 -Wed 0 Cl)
[IJ 5/10 - Thu 3 C:
'° I "Tl 5/11 - Fri 0 0 :E 5112 - Sat C m -, X 511 3 - Sun '< "tJ (D :::,. 5/14 - Mon OJ 3 (D C 3. 0 5/15 - Tu e <C ::0 Ill 5/16 -Wed -n IS-
r+ (D
0 ., I 5i17 - Thu
!fl :r ~ Ill 0 C 5/18-Fri 'iJ --,
I 5i19 - Sal Cl) --)> 5/20 - Sun Cl) g_ -, C: 5/21 - Mon ::I I!!. ?:: I 5122 - Tu e 0 0) C: 5/23 - Wed '< ~ ::0 5124 - Thu I'\) (D 0 ar 5.1'25 - Fri -->. ., Ill co (D
5/26 - Sat Ill
5/27 - Sun
5/28 - Mon r (D 5129 - Tu e (D Ill
"Tl !!!
5/30 - Wed
'< 5131-Thu "Tl 0 :E
6,'01 - Fri
14
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
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6/01 • Fri
6/02 • Sat 7J
6/03 - Sun 0 .-+
6,'04 • Mon (1) :J
6i05 • Tue .-+
Q) 6!ll6 - Wed
G') 6i07 • Thu
(1) 6.108 · Fri ::I
6/09 • Sat (") Q)
6/10 • Sun :J '<
6/11 - Mon 0 :J
6/12 • Tu e 0 6/13 - Wed Q)
6i14 • Thu 3
0 I Ill
6/15 - Fri 0 ..+ C <D 6116 • Sal I ::::!.. :r
6117. Sun '< 0 C a:J --,
6/18 • Mon C
6/19 • Tu e (0 ,,
6/20 • Wed -0 6/21 • Thu ~
6/22 • Fri 7J Q)
6/23 • Sat --(1) 6/24 - Sun ....
::I 6.1'25 - Mon L
C 6/26 • Tue :J
6/27 • Wed (1)
N 6/28 • Thu 0 .....
6.129 • Fri CX)
6/30 • Sat
7101 • Sun
15
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
7101 • Sun
7!02 - Mon
7103 - Tu e 7J 0 -7,U4 • Wed (1) ::I
71U5 • Thu -7.106 - Fri
0) -7,U7 - Sat
G) (1)
7/08 • Sun ::I 7l09 • Mon ()
0) 7110 - Tu e ::I
7/11 - Wed '< 0
7112 - Thu ::I
7/13 • Fri 0 0)
7114 - Sat 3 0
7115 . Sun I Ill 7/16 • Mon
0 ..+ C <D
I ..... :r 7i17 - Tu e '< 0 C 7/18 -Wed OJ --,
C 7i19 • Thu (0
7.120 • Fri "Tl 7/21 - Sal 0
7122. Sun :E 7J
7.123 - Mon 0) -7124 - Tue -(1)
7!'25 • Wed ..... ::I
7126 - Thu c_ C:
7.127 • Fri '< 7/28 - Sat l'v
0 7/29 • Sun
_,,_ (X)
7/30 • Mon
7/31 - Tue
81U1 - Wed
16
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
8/01 - Wed
81U2 - Thu
8/03 - Fri 7J 0 .....
B,U4 - Sal CD ::J
8l05 - Sun ..... 8.106 - Mon
0) -8/07 - Tue
G) CD
8/08 -Wed ::J 8109 - Thu ()
8.110- Fri 0) ::J
8/11 - Sal '< 0
8112 - Sun ::J
8/13 - Mon 0 0)
8114 - Tue 3 O 8/15 - \",led I Ill 8116 - Thu
0 ,-+ C: <D
I -, :r 811 7 - Fri '< 0 C 8/18 - Sal OJ --,
C: 8,'19 - Sun (0
8.120 - Mon "Tl 8/21 - Tue 0
t.122 -Wed :E 7J
6/23 - Thu 0)
8.124 - Fri ..... ..... CD -,
8/25 - Sal ::J
8;26 - Sun • C: 8.127 - Mon (0
C: 8/28 - Tu e (/) .....
8129 - \Ned I'-)
8/30 - Thu 0 ->.
8.131 - Fri co 9i01 - Sat
Water Year 2019Projected Operations
17
Lake Powell 2019 Operating Tier Scenarios Based on June and April 2018 modeling
Inflow Scenario
Operating TierRelease Volume
MinimumProbable
Upper Elevation Balancing8.8 maf
MostProbable
Upper Elevation Balancing9.0 maf
Maximum Probable
Upper Elevation Balancing9.0 maf
18
19
LTEMP Monthly Release Volumes
1 /i!lfl
,,,on
n uu
-" ~ ~ u
1000
"' 0 "' -0
"' Rm C:
"' ;;, 0 ,::_ ,_ OJ V>
"' bOO
,!?
"' "' 4L\)
()
OCT NOV DEC JAN f EB MAR \1AY JUN JU_ AUG SEP Monthly J)P.r WVT~rgP.t, Mill ioM ot ~r.rP.-tP.P.t
• I • l.48 • 8.B • Y • Y., • 10., • 11 • n • B • 14
LTEMP Monthly Release VolumesMonth 7.00 7.48 8.23 9.00 9.50 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00
OCT 480 480 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640NOV 500 500 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640DEC 600 600 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 720JAN 660 720 760 860 920 1040 1100 1230 1350 1470FEB 590 640 680 750 810 920 970 1080 1190 1300MAR 620 675 710 800 860 970 1030 1150 1260 1370APR 550 600 640 710 760 870 920 1020 1120 1220MAY 550 600 630 710 760 860 910 1020 1120 1220JUN 580 630 660 750 800 910 960 1060 1170 1280JUL 650 710 750 850 900 1020 1080 1200 1320 1440AUG 700 760 800 900 970 1090 1160 1280 1410 1540SEP 520 565 600 670 720 820 870 960 1060 1160
1,600
1,400
1,200
<P ro .:.:: 1,000 ~
<I)
E ::,
g 800 <I) rJ) ro <I) 600 <I)
0::
400
200
Projected Lake Powell Monthly Release Volume Distribution Release Scenarios for Water Year 2019 Based on June and April 2018 modeling
WY 2019 Release Scenarios Apr Probable Min 8.80 maf Jun Most Probable: 9.0 maf Apr Probable Ma)(; 9.0 maf
co .--
8 co .--::?-0 z
0) .--c: ro
7
0) r-..c Cl)
IL
O> .--C: ::,
7
~ Probable Min • June Most Probable D Probable Max
!JOU
Unit Number
Oct 2018
Nov 2018
Dec 2018
Jan 2019
Feb 2019
Mar 2019
Apr 2019
May 2019
Jun 2019
Jul 2019
Aug 2019
Sep 2019
12
345678
Units Available 6 8 6 6 6 4/6 6 7 8 8 8 6
Capacity (cfs)
19,100 26,100 19,100 19,100 19,100 12,200 19,000 22,700 26,100 26.100 26,100 19,100
Capacity (kaf/month) 1,240 1,550 1,200 1,170 1,060 1,140 1,190 1,480 1,550 1,600 1,600 1,180
Max (kaf) 1 640 640 720 860 750 800 710 710 750 850 900 670
Most (kaf) 2 640 640 720 860 750 800 710 710 750 850 900 670
Min (kaf) 1 640 640 720 820 730 760 690 680 710 810 860 644
22
Glen Canyon Power Plant Planned Unit Outage Schedule for Water Year 2019
1 Projected release, based on Apr 2018 Min and Max Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs
2 Projected release, based on June 2018 Most Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs
9.08.7
9.0
(updated 6-11-2018)
Poss
ible
HFE
I 117 ., ., u lJ u
1= 1 1= 1
•Iii I
RECLAMATION
Questions?
Paul Davidson801-524-3642
Hydraulic Engineer, Glen CanyonReclamation, Upper Colorado Region
Resource Management DivisionWater Resources Group