basin hydrology, water years 2018-2019 operations...potential water year unregulated inflow volume...

$: Basin Hydrology, Water years 2018-2019 Operations...Potential Water Year Unregulated Inflow Volume (maf) WY-2018 Releases:\爀吀栀攀搀愀爀欀戀氀甀攀氀椀渀攀椀猀$
Basin Hydrology, Water Years 2018-2019

Operations

Glen Canyon Technical Work GroupJune 25, 2018

<•~!U"!N' 0, !Hf INr

•·• :::_ U.S. Department of the Interior •· .. ~;;;.;,,.-./ Bureau of Reclamation

Snow Conditions

2

SWE peaked at 73 % of the peak seasonal median on 3/30/2018

Snowpack has melted out

Updated on 6/22/2018

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 (\

't av (\ ~

~o

Upper Colorado River Basin Snotel Tracking Aggregate of 104 Snotel Sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin

(\ cf

()<Q

.. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . ,~ . ~· . ,.. . ~~

Month

125 W

100

~ "" "' &: "' C 0

I V)

75 C

"' '5 ., :E 0

50 ill, i¥ ., !:! .,

25 ll.

- comparison Year Basin-wide S1NE W\'2017 - current Year Basin-wide SVI/E W\'2018 - 30 Year Basin-wide Median S1/1/E I Data Provided by the Natural Resource Cons.rvation Service {NRCS}

RECLAMATION

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Clarify Y axes units; snapshot of snotels above Powell rep. of basin Snow Water Equivalents (SWE) Seasonal Peak occurred on 3/30/2018, at 73% of average. On 5/21/2018 The SWE was 16% of the seasonal median peak and was 45% of the basin-wide median as to date. Note: Basin snow pack continues to diminish as temperatures warm, with the exception of the upper Green River Basin of Wyoming many streams throughout the Colorado River and Great Basin have already realized their annual spring peak. In most cases, these peaks were very early and also significantly below the average annual snow melt peak. With the snowpack continuing to dwindle, most streams south of the upper Green River Basin are likely to be in their seasonal recession by the final week of May if not already.

1-Ocl

15-0ct

29-0ct

12-Nov

Flow Rate, cfs ~ ~ ~ N

._Ln p ~· .p .y, 08 8 8 g 8

0 C O O 0

26-Nov

1

~ it I I 10-Dec -.ai~ t ~ ?/ t I a,

0 ~

24-Dec "-~ ,I t I -("")

~ ~ I I .....a. 1 I

7-Jan

21-fan - I .I - 1..;._; I ! ~ ~ tD

4-Feb ~ 1 , C' t I Cl> "'tJ ~ 0

18-Feb ,a t I ; :::

4-lvlar ~ =-if.• t E .L t I ~ !'.!!,. - -II>

I ~ I I 18-Mar -•lliii-- -1-Apr ' ) , - iiiii• I C t I !

ro 15-Apr J· ,2 · 1 · · :S.. t I ~-

o 29-Apr ii .... !!'""' ,..::::== I I ::I

13-M ay

27-M ay

10-.lun

24-Jun w w w ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0

Elevations. feet

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Based on the current hydrology and forecasts, the WY Maximum Lake Powell elevation will remain as October 1, 2017 when the elevation was 3628.4 feet, this spring’s inflow produced a secondary peak on June 10th of 3612.25 feet, which is about a 3 foot raise from May 2nd through June 10th Current elevation as of mid-night June 24th is 3611 feet,

4

94%

59%

53%70%

88%

1 percent of average based on period 1981-2010.

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html

ReservoirA-J

Forecast(KAF)

Percent of

Average1

Fontenelle 980 135%

Flaming Gorge 1,100 112%

Blue Mesa 260 39%

Navajo 174 24%

Powell 2,650 37%

Basin StorageAs of

6/24/2018

Upper Basin Storage

2018 April to July Inflow Forecast

Issued June 18, 2018

5

June Mid-Month: 2.65 maf (37%)

18 " A~ril - Jul~ 2018 Forecast " -u. 16 4;

==

Most Prob: 3.0 maf (42%) Min Prob: 2.08 maf (29%) -Cl)

14 E ::::I

" M ax Prob: 4.18 maf (58%)

"

~ 12

~ - -;: C 10

--"Cl -Cl) -.!!! 8 ::::I

-- --Cl Cl) .. C

6 ::, - -" +- -- - -

>, " -- -'3 -..,

4 I -·::::: Q. <( 2 . -

... 0

'SI" <D O')

<D <D J>

00 <D O')

0 ..... O')

N r-O')

'SI" r-O')

<D ..... O')

00 r-O') - - - - - - - -

Lake Powell Unregulated Inflow April - July 2018 Forecast

Issued June 4th

--- Average: 7.16 maf (1981-2010)

- - ---- - -

--- - •• -

- - -- -- - - - -- -- -- - -

~

0 N 'SI" <D 00 0 N 'SI" <D 00 0 N 'SI" <D 00 00 00 00 00 O') O') 0) O') 0, 0 0 0 0 O') O') O') O') O') O') O') O') O') O') 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - N N N N

Year

-

- ---- -

- --

--

00 0 N 'SI" <D 00 00 0 - ~ - - - -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N

C: t; X ·- 0 «:S ~ ::E ~

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Blue bars are observed inflows for past 54 years; Horizontal line is 30-year average; Red bar is the current Apr-July forecast for WY 2018. 1) This graphic provides a comparison of this year’s forecasted seasonal inflow to Lake Powell, shown in red, to observed inflow volumes over the past 54 years, shown in light blue. 2) Due to uncertainty in future hydrology, we also receive probable minimum and probable maximum inflow forecasts, which are shown in orange and range from 2.08 maf to 4.18 maf. Do keep in mind that there’s a 10% chance that the actual runoff could above or below this range. Note: Min & Max forecasts are provided in Jan, April, August, and October. 3) If the Most Probable forecast holds for this season, it’ll be 5th lowest Apr-Jul inflow since 1964. 10.831 = WY 30-yr avg; 10.831 = WY 30-yr avg; 7.16 = A-J 30-yr avg

6

Lake Powell 2018 Operating TierUpper Elevation Balancing

• Tier was set in August 2017– Start with 8.23 maf release

• Use April 24-Month Study projections of end of water year storage to potentially adjust1. Stay with 8.23 maf2. Balancing: 8.23 - 9.0 maf3. Equalization: > 8.23 maf

3,700

3,63; -31666 (2COO-Ki25)

3,676

3,490

3,370

M th@ lntt11im Gui!tflliria~

Equaililation Tier Equalize, t:\~io spi Is or release 8.23 maf

-----------------------------------------------Upper Elri1111icn Balancing Tier

t-iel1:::ase 8.23 rmll, 11 L• k• M,-;~ < 1,0•) 1,.,

l,al<11l0e, oonterrts witil .: min/ma:< '= ease of

10 Md9.C ITl~f

Mld·Ele•aJ Ion Release Tier

R.:-lcasc 7,4S maf. H ake Mead< 1.:>Z5 feet

reltat.e 8.23 m.if

Lower E!c\'alion Balancing Tier

Balance contentr. with a min/max 'E ease of

103nd ~.E rn3f

16.0 - 19.3 ('20M-2C26)

9.6

5.9

,.o

0

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Under the UEB Tier, there is the potential for a shift in Powell's operations to either equalization or balancing releases based on projections in the April 24-Month Study. This last April, a shift to balancing releases did occur and we are currently projecting Lake Powell to release 9.0 maf.

7

Potential Lake Powell Release Scenarios Water Year 2018 Release Volume as a Function of Unregulated Inflow Volume

based on June and April 2018 24-Month Study Conditions I I

Water Vear 2018

Powell releases controlled by ba lancing 2018 Most Probable

9.5 contents of Powellseµ,o and Meadsev:;o WY Unreg Inflow= 5.25 mat (48%)

(Release= 8.23 up to 9.0 maf) Powell Release= 9.0 maf

9.0

8.5

YTD Measured Unreg Inflow = ·---, ______ .. / ,,,,,,,,'

4.4 mat (WY18 as of 6/24/18) ... ~,,,,,,,,-✓• - -

I • . -. , __

' -----------------\\ ' ' ' 2018 MaKimum Probable \\

I ' WY Unreg Inflow = 7. 76 mat (72%) -

M inimum Inflow Scenario Powell Release= 9.0 maf

WY Unreg Inflow = 4.32 mat (40%) Powell Release= 9.0 mat

8.0 - coordinated Ops Main Line I-

0 Probable Max {Apr 18)

7.5 O Probable Min (Apr 18)

• Most Probable (Jun 18)

• WY Unreg Inflow (to date)

7.0 0 2 4 6 8 10

Potential Water Year Unregulated Inflow Volume (maf)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

WY-2018 Releases: The dark blue line is the application of the interim guidelines with respect to WY inflow volumes and current reservoir conditions. Forecast inflow volumes are illustrated by the yellow dots (MIN & MAX), and the MOST probable being the red diamond. Current measured WY unregulated inflow volume is the orange square.

8

1,600

1,400

1,200

C ro -"' 1,000 ~

QJ

E ::,

0 > 800 QJ (/) ro QJ 600 ©

0:::

400

200

Projected Lake Powell Monthly Release Volume Distribution Release Scenarios for Water Year 2018 Based on June and April 2018 modeling

WY 2018 Release Scenarios Apr Probable Min: 9.0 maf Jun Most Probable: 9.0 maf Apr Probable Max: 9.0 maf

G40 630

8bU

C ro --,

..Q QJ LL

llOO

(0

705 705

(0

• Probable Min • May Most Probable • Probable Max

9

Water Year 2018 projectionsMost: 9.0 maf releaseMIN: 9.0 maf release MAX: 9.0 maf release

End of May 2018 Elevation:3611.0 feet (53% full) End of CY 2018 Projection:

3588.5 feet (44% full)Min/Max Range: 3580 to 3612 feet

Water Year 2019 projectionsMost: 9.0 maf releaseMIN: 8.8 maf release MAX: 9.0 maf release

3,700

3,675

3,650

3 ,625

= -; 3,600 0

~Cl): 3 575 . jjj

3,550

3,525

3 ,500

3,475

I I

Lake Powell End of Month Elevations Historic and Projected based on June and April 2018 Modeling

Equalization Tier (ET)

Upper Elevation Balancing Tier (3575'-ET)

I I I Fi.Jtl re ·~

3,154 3,655'

, , , , I - - L I ~,._1 i

/ -==L-- . r---1---rl - ---

I I I Mid-Elevation Release ner (3525'-3575')

Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (<3525')

i ,..,. ... _ - w-..._ .. .. .. ~--..._ __ ._ __ -.. ...... _ ,' .... ... _., __ .. ~-

, , ,

--......... , ---r-_:;;, ~~

• I I I I

...

--I

, ,,,

--~ I i~;~~ P;; e; P~ol -1---13,i90: -t---' -, ----------------------1-1-1-. ' ' ' ' I ' '

I'-- I'-- I'-- I'-- r-. I'-- I'-- I'-- I'-- r-- I'-- I'-- co co co co co co co co co co co co a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

' o!. o!. >- . c, a. t5 > l) ' o!. ' >- C: . c, 6. t5 l) • o!. ' >- C: • c, 6. C .Q C :::, C .Q ~ :::, > C .Q ~

:::, (!l Q) '" a. «I :::, :::, Q) 0 Q) (!l QJ cu a. «I :::, :::, Q) 0 Q) (!l Q) cu a. 11) :::, :::, Q) -, LL ~ <( ~ -, -,

<( (/) 0 z 0 -, LL ::1; <( ~ -, -, <( Cl) 0 z 0 -, LL ::1; <( ~ -, -,

<( Cl)

--Observed --June 2018 Most Prooable - - -Apr 2018 Mi1 Probable • -- • Apr 2018 Max Probable

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Excel file: T:\WRG\Reservoir Operations\Paul\1_Powell Ops\1_Ops Spreadsheets\24 Month Study Data\Powell_Projected_Ele_MMM2018.xlsx • This figure shows both historic and projected end of month pool elevations at Lake Powell. • To the left, the black line represents observed pool elevation for the past year. To the right is a range of projected elevations given the uncertainty in inflows and releases with the light blue line representing most probable, red representing probable maximum, and dark blue representing probable minimum scenarios. • Even with wide range of potential inflows, the projected end of calendar year 2018 pool elevation for all three scenarios would place WY 2019 in Upper Elevation Balancing Tier. The final operating tier determination for WY 2019 will be made in August 2018. MIN/MAX range 3580-3612 WY 2018 release projections WY 2019 release projections Most: 9.0 maf release Most: 9.0 maf release Min: 9.0 maf release Min: 8.8 maf release Max: 9.0 maf release Max: 9.0 maf release

10

Most Probable End of CY 2018 Projection: 1,077.7 feet (38% full)

Min/Max Range: 1,077 to 1,081 feet

Most Probable End of CY 2019 Projection: 1,073.3 feet (36% full)

Min/Max Range: 1,062 to 1,079 feet

1,150

1,125

- 1.,100 (D E (I) > 0 .c 1,075 "' ai (I) --.2 1.,050 -"' > (I)

iii 1,025

1,000

Surglus Condition, 1, .... -1 n ana u,ove

Normal Con bition 1,075 tc 1 ,1• 5 ft

-.... l~I

Lake Mead End of Month Elevations Projections from the April and June 2018 24-Month Study Inflow Scenarios

I

Hi: ton1cal Funm

J:--+. ----,.,I ... ~

I I ..... ---:.:.--i-~~;;"1'-=}i~, , , "' ~ I -4f----··--

Level 1 Shortage Condit on -----~rt:-=.:ri= 1,060 I 1.076ft I

.... ... ~ -,

-it•~<- Ion 1,025 i 1, 50 ft

Level ! Sh! rtage Condi

1,025 ~ •r below

ion

... ... .... ... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... 00 CD CD 00 CD CD CD CD CD co CD CD 0, en en Cl en en en "' ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... • • • ' • '5 . • . > • • • • • . • '5

. • . > • • • • • ' • '5 .

,c ~ ... >- C a, Q, - " C ,c ~ ...

~ C a, Q, - " ~ ,c ~ ...

~ C a, Cl) ~ "' :::J :::J ., " 0 .,

"' Cl) a, :::J :::J Cl) " 0 ., ., a, :::J :::J i.. :ii: :: -, -,

< II) 0 z Q -, i.. :ii: <( :: -, -, < II) 0 z Q -, i.. :ii: <( :: -, -,

<

-----Aprt l 2018 Probable Maximum lnftowwtth Lake Powell Release ot 9.00 mar In WY 2018 and WY 2019

- - June 2018 Most Probable Inflow wtth Lake Powell Release of 9.00 mar In WY 2018 and WY 2019

--- - Aprt l 2018 Probable Minimum Inflow with Lake Powell Rel ease of 9.00 mar In WY 2018 and 8.81 mar In WY 2019

"' "' cn en ... ... ... ... • . > • Q, - " Cl) " 0 ., 1/) 0 z Q

Presenter

Presentation Notes

This graphic shows the historical monthly Mead elevations, and end of month elevation projections from the June Most Probable, as well as the April Min and Max probable 24-month studies. During calendar year 2018 we don’t see very much variability in the elevation projections because all three scenarios show identical Powell releases of 9.0 MAF. The June Most probable study project’s Lake Mead to end the year at elevation 1077.7 feet, with the range of end of year elevations at 1077 to 1081 feet. During calendar year 2019, there is a little more variability. The June Most Probable study projects Mead to end calendar year 2019 at 1073.3 feet, a little under the Shortage trigger elevation. The April Max probable projects Mead to end calendar year 2019 at about elevation 1079 feet, a little higher and in the normal condition. This is based on higher intervening flows below Lake Powell and lower water demands out of Mead during 2018 and 2019. The April Min inflow scenario, on the other hand, projects Mead to end calendar year 2019 down at elevation 1062 feet. This is based on a number of factors. First, Powell is operating in WY 2019 with an April adjustment to balancing, but releasing 8.8 MAF. In addition, the Min scenario shows Powell operating in the Mid Elevation Release Tier in WY 2020, which meads that the October, November, and December releases from Powell would be 1.58 Maf, which is less than the typical 2.0 MAF that would typically be modeled for an annual release volume of 8.23 MAF or higher. In addition, this scenario has high water demands out of Mead as well as lower intervening flows between Powell and Mead. There is a lot of uncertainty in these projections, The projections will change as the hydrologic conditions evolve and as water demands in the lower basin get more certain.

Unit Number

Oct 2017

Nov 2017

Dec 2017

Jan 2018

Feb 2018

Mar 2018

Apr 2018

May 2018

Jun 2018

Jul 2018

Aug 2018

Sep 2018

12

345678

Units Available 6 6/4 4/6 6 4/6 5/6 5/6 5 6/7 7 7 5

Capacity (cfs)

21,000 13,200 13,200 20,600 13,000 12,000 15,700 15,600 12,200 23,900 23,900 12,600

Capacity (kaf/month) 1,290 970 1,170 1,260 780 1,060 1,130 980 1,210 1,470 1,470 1,190

Max (kaf) 1 667 630 740 860 730 800 705 705 760 860 900 670

Most (kaf) 2 640 630 740 860 730 800 705 705 760 860 900 670

Min (kaf) 1 630 630 740 860 750 780 683 700 760 860 900 670

11

Glen Canyon Power Plant Planned Unit Outage Schedule for Water Year 2018

1 Projected release, based on Apr 2018 Min and Max Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs

2 Projected release, based on June 2018 Most Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs

9.09.0

9.0

(updated 6-11-2018)

CII D "

[J CJ [J .. CJ • .. •

I I I

I I I

RECLAMATION

Experimental MacroinvertebrateProduction Flow (Bug Flow)

• Approved by Assistant Sec. Water & Science on April 13.

– Experiment is for May through August– Steady weekend flows.– Normal hydropower production flows during week days.– No monthly or weekly volumes flow changes.– Week day fluctuating flows follow LTEMP guide lines.

12

13

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

en 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5/01 - Tu e ;;r (D Cl. 5,U2 - Wed C: ar G) Cl. 5:U3 - Thu -I Cl) 0 5.104 - Fri ::I C: ~

'< 51U5 - Sat 0 ;:o !!!. Cl) (D 5/06 - Sun ::I .,

'< Ill (D 5/07 - Mon 0 Ill

::I 5/08 - Tu e

5/09 -Wed 0 Cl)

[IJ 5/10 - Thu 3 C:

'° I "Tl 5/11 - Fri 0 0 :E 5112 - Sat C m -, X 511 3 - Sun '< "tJ (D :::,. 5/14 - Mon OJ 3 (D C 3. 0 5/15 - Tu e <C ::0 Ill 5/16 -Wed -n IS-

r+ (D

0 ., I 5i17 - Thu

!fl :r ~ Ill 0 C 5/18-Fri 'iJ --,

I 5i19 - Sal Cl) --)> 5/20 - Sun Cl) g_ -, C: 5/21 - Mon ::I I!!. ?:: I 5122 - Tu e 0 0) C: 5/23 - Wed '< ~ ::0 5124 - Thu I'\) (D 0 ar 5.1'25 - Fri -->. ., Ill co (D

5/26 - Sat Ill

5/27 - Sun

5/28 - Mon r (D 5129 - Tu e (D Ill

"Tl !!!

5/30 - Wed

'< 5131-Thu "Tl 0 :E

6,'01 - Fri

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Monthly volume: 705,000 Daily fluctuation rate 9 X 705 =~ 6,340 cfs Week-day: Peak flows of 14,250 cfs, Low flows of 7,910 cfs Weekend steady flows: 8,910 cfs

14

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

6/01 • Fri

6/02 • Sat 7J

6/03 - Sun 0 .-+

6,'04 • Mon (1) :J

6i05 • Tue .-+

Q) 6!ll6 - Wed

G') 6i07 • Thu

(1) 6.108 · Fri ::I

6/09 • Sat (") Q)

6/10 • Sun :J '<

6/11 - Mon 0 :J

6/12 • Tu e 0 6/13 - Wed Q)

6i14 • Thu 3

0 I Ill

6/15 - Fri 0 ..+ C <D 6116 • Sal I ::::!.. :r

6117. Sun '< 0 C a:J --,

6/18 • Mon C

6/19 • Tu e (0 ,,

6/20 • Wed -0 6/21 • Thu ~

6/22 • Fri 7J Q)

6/23 • Sat --(1) 6/24 - Sun ....

::I 6.1'25 - Mon L

C 6/26 • Tue :J

6/27 • Wed (1)

N 6/28 • Thu 0 .....

6.129 • Fri CX)

6/30 • Sat

7101 • Sun

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Monthly volume: 760,000 Daily fluctuation rate 10 X 760 =~ 7,600 cfs Week-day: Peak flows of 16,450 cfs, Low flows of 8,850 cfs Weekend steady flows: 9,850 cfs

15

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

7101 • Sun

7!02 - Mon

7103 - Tu e 7J 0 -7,U4 • Wed (1) ::I

71U5 • Thu -7.106 - Fri

0) -7,U7 - Sat

G) (1)

7/08 • Sun ::I 7l09 • Mon ()

0) 7110 - Tu e ::I

7/11 - Wed '< 0

7112 - Thu ::I

7/13 • Fri 0 0)

7114 - Sat 3 0

7115 . Sun I Ill 7/16 • Mon

0 ..+ C <D

I ..... :r 7i17 - Tu e '< 0 C 7/18 -Wed OJ --,

C 7i19 • Thu (0

7.120 • Fri "Tl 7/21 - Sal 0

7122. Sun :E 7J

7.123 - Mon 0) -7124 - Tue -(1)

7!'25 • Wed ..... ::I

7126 - Thu c_ C:

7.127 • Fri '< 7/28 - Sat l'v

0 7/29 • Sun

_,,_ (X)

7/30 • Mon

7/31 - Tue

81U1 - Wed

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Monthly volume: 860,000 Daily fluctuation rate 10 X 860 =~ 8,600 cfs, but limited to Max of 8,000 cfs Week-day: Peak flows of 18,200 cfs, Low flows of 10,200 cfs Weekend steady flows: 11,200 cfs

16

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "' "' "' "' "' "' ... a, co 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 "' .c,. a, a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

8/01 - Wed

81U2 - Thu

8/03 - Fri 7J 0 .....

B,U4 - Sal CD ::J

8l05 - Sun ..... 8.106 - Mon

0) -8/07 - Tue

G) CD

8/08 -Wed ::J 8109 - Thu ()

8.110- Fri 0) ::J

8/11 - Sal '< 0

8112 - Sun ::J

8/13 - Mon 0 0)

8114 - Tue 3 O 8/15 - \",led I Ill 8116 - Thu

0 ,-+ C: <D

I -, :r 811 7 - Fri '< 0 C 8/18 - Sal OJ --,

C: 8,'19 - Sun (0

8.120 - Mon "Tl 8/21 - Tue 0

t.122 -Wed :E 7J

6/23 - Thu 0)

8.124 - Fri ..... ..... CD -,

8/25 - Sal ::J

8;26 - Sun • C: 8.127 - Mon (0

C: 8/28 - Tu e (/) .....

8129 - \Ned I'-)

8/30 - Thu 0 ->.

8.131 - Fri co 9i01 - Sat

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Monthly volume: 900,000 Daily fluctuation rate 10 X 900 =~ 9,000 cfs, but limited to Max of 8,000 cfs Week-day: Peak flows of 18,500 cfs, Low flows of 10,500 cfs Weekend steady flows: 11,500 cfs

Water Year 2019Projected Operations

17

Lake Powell 2019 Operating Tier Scenarios Based on June and April 2018 modeling

Inflow Scenario

Operating TierRelease Volume

MinimumProbable

Upper Elevation Balancing8.8 maf

MostProbable


Maximum Probable


18

19

LTEMP Monthly Release Volumes

1 /i!lfl

,,,on

n uu

-" ~ ~ u

1000

"' 0 "' -0

"' Rm C:

"' ;;, 0 ,::_ ,_ OJ V>

"' bOO

,!?

"' "' 4L\)

()

OCT NOV DEC JAN f EB MAR \1AY JUN JU_ AUG SEP Monthly J)P.r WVT~rgP.t, Mill ioM ot ~r.rP.-tP.P.t

• I • l.48 • 8.B • Y • Y., • 10., • 11 • n • B • 14

LTEMP Monthly Release VolumesMonth 7.00 7.48 8.23 9.00 9.50 10.50 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00

OCT 480 480 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640NOV 500 500 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640DEC 600 600 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 720JAN 660 720 760 860 920 1040 1100 1230 1350 1470FEB 590 640 680 750 810 920 970 1080 1190 1300MAR 620 675 710 800 860 970 1030 1150 1260 1370APR 550 600 640 710 760 870 920 1020 1120 1220MAY 550 600 630 710 760 860 910 1020 1120 1220JUN 580 630 660 750 800 910 960 1060 1170 1280JUL 650 710 750 850 900 1020 1080 1200 1320 1440AUG 700 760 800 900 970 1090 1160 1280 1410 1540SEP 520 565 600 670 720 820 870 960 1060 1160

1,600

1,400

1,200

<P ro .:.:: 1,000 ~

<I)

E ::,

g 800 <I) rJ) ro <I) 600 <I)

0::

400

200

Projected Lake Powell Monthly Release Volume Distribution Release Scenarios for Water Year 2019 Based on June and April 2018 modeling

WY 2019 Release Scenarios Apr Probable Min 8.80 maf Jun Most Probable: 9.0 maf Apr Probable Ma)(; 9.0 maf

co .--

8 co .--::?-0 z

0) .--c: ro

7

0) r-..c Cl)

IL

O> .--C: ::,

7

~ Probable Min • June Most Probable D Probable Max

!JOU

Unit Number

Oct 2018

Nov 2018

Dec 2018

Jan 2019

Feb 2019

Mar 2019

Apr 2019

May 2019

Jun 2019

Jul 2019

Aug 2019

Sep 2019

12

345678

Units Available 6 8 6 6 6 4/6 6 7 8 8 8 6

Capacity (cfs)

19,100 26,100 19,100 19,100 19,100 12,200 19,000 22,700 26,100 26.100 26,100 19,100

Capacity (kaf/month) 1,240 1,550 1,200 1,170 1,060 1,140 1,190 1,480 1,550 1,600 1,600 1,180

Max (kaf) 1 640 640 720 860 750 800 710 710 750 850 900 670

Most (kaf) 2 640 640 720 860 750 800 710 710 750 850 900 670

Min (kaf) 1 640 640 720 820 730 760 690 680 710 810 860 644

22

Glen Canyon Power Plant Planned Unit Outage Schedule for Water Year 2019

1 Projected release, based on Apr 2018 Min and Max Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs

2 Projected release, based on June 2018 Most Probable Inflow Projections and 24-Month Study model runs

9.08.7

9.0

(updated 6-11-2018)

Poss

ible

HFE

I 117 ., ., u lJ u

1= 1 1= 1

•Iii I

RECLAMATION

Questions?

Paul Davidson801-524-3642

[email protected]

Hydraulic Engineer, Glen CanyonReclamation, Upper Colorado Region

Resource Management DivisionWater Resources Group

mailto:[email protected]

basin hydrology, water years 2018-2019 operations...potential water year unregulated inflow volume...

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