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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 1
Baker Lake Sockeye 2020
Edward Eleazer, Regional Program ManagerMickey Agha, PhD, Sockeye/Pink/Chum Specialist
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 2
Presentation Outline
Baker Lake Sockeye History Hatchery Production
Fisheries Management/Science• Analyses – Preseason
Forecasts
Summary of 2020 Season/Harvest
sharing
Future Plans Questions
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 3
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 4
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 5
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 6
Baker Sockeye Hatchery Releases
• Record 10,781,926 fry released in 2020.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Num
ber o
f soc
keye
fry
Year released
Baker Sockeye Hatchery Releases
Lake Shannon
Baker Lake
Delayed Rearing
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 7
Fishing Locations – Skagit R.
* Mt. Vernon
Skagit Bay
Baker Lake
Lake Shannon
Tribal U&ARec. Fishery
* Baker Trap
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 8
Pre-Season Management/Science
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 9
Pre-Season Management/Science
Baker River Forecast Model• Evaluated run size relationship
with climate-based predictors (i.e., North Pacific Gyre Oscillation)
• Identified February NGPO as strongest predictor of early marine survival
• Used sibling-based relationship model with NGPO to predict 2020 return
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 10
Pre-Season Management/Science
• Applying an NPGO based model resulted in a 15-30% decrease in performance error when hindcasted over the past 5 years
• 2020 Run Reconstructed run size: 19,157
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 11
In-Season Management/Science
Baker Trap Counts• Flow Dependent• ~10-day migration to Baker Trap
In-Season Update (ISU) Models• Use trap counts to predict total run size• Reliability of model prediction increases after
50% migration (avg timing 7/15)• Migration time limits effectiveness of in-season
actions
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 12
In-Season Management/Science
• Pattern recognition and historical correlation• 2017 Trap Count: 16,704• 2019 Trap Count: 15,890• 2020 Trap Count: 15,607
https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/reports/counts/baker-river#returns
https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/reports/counts/baker-river
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 13
How does Baker compare to other stocks in 2020
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 14
Forecasting Future: Exploring Other FactorsWe will continue to look through the following factors when assessing forecast model performance now and in the future!• Pink Competition – Density Dependent Effect (Connors
et al., 2020)• Stream flow and temperature• Smolt density and size• Time-varying relationships with climate (Malick, 2020)
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 15
Sockeye Salmon Scientific Literature• Connors, B., et al. (2020). Climate and
competition influence sockeye salmon population dynamics across the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 77(6): 943-949.
• Malick, M. J. (2020). Time‐varying relationships between ocean conditions and sockeye salmon productivity. Fisheries Oceanography, 29(3), 265-275.
• Warming climate and competition both have a negative effect on southern sockeye population productivity
• Opposite effect for Northern populations Connors et al. (2020)
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 16
Updated Harvest Sharing
Recent 10-year (2010-2020*1) Harvest/Share EquityState Share Treaty Harvest
2020 Harvest 5,884 3,348Total Harvest 118,958 137,383
*1: 2020 data is preliminary
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sock
eye
Har
vest
/Sh
are
Run year
Baker Sockeye Harvest 2010-2020*1
State
Treaty
Over forecast (OF)
Over forecast (OF)Under forecast (UF)
Forecast performance is the greatest contributor to state/treaty harvest sharing
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 17
2020 Baker Lake Sockeye Fishery
2020 Baker Lake sockeye fishery highlights• Anglers put in an estimated 41,233 hours of total fishing effort
• 1,293 anglers were interviewed by WDFW creel staff and 6,742 angler hours were sampled
• Estimated 7,908 angler trips• Estimated $458,652 economic impact (TCW Economics. 2008. aka Wegge. 2008)
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 18
Future Plans
• Prioritize Baker sockeye harvest equity in 2021 NOF season-setting process
• Continue to work with angler groups and tribes to improve connection
• Continue to update/evaluate technical tools used to manage fishery
• Hatchery improvements leading to more production/understanding.
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Department of Fish and Wildlife Commission Presentation January 29-30, 2021 Meeting 19
Questions?
Baker Lake Sockeye 2020Presentation OutlineSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Baker Sockeye Hatchery ReleasesFishing Locations – Skagit R.Pre-Season Management/SciencePre-Season Management/SciencePre-Season Management/ScienceIn-Season Management/ScienceIn-Season Management/ScienceHow does Baker compare to other stocks in 2020Forecasting Future: �Exploring Other FactorsSockeye Salmon Scientific LiteratureUpdated Harvest Sharing2020 Baker Lake Sockeye Fishery Future PlansQuestions?